Poet's 2016 Offseason Plan of Attack for Greatness

[dead_poet]

I've been thinking about things and here's what I would do if I was Rick. Feel free to agree or disagree but mostly agree.

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Release/opt to not re-sign: Kenrick Ellis, Robert Blanton, Casey Matthews, Josh Robinson, Jason Trusnik, Mike Wallace, Brandon Fusco

Notes: Ellis was a depth rental, Blanton is a replaceable talent, Matthews was also a rental, Robinson never seemed to gel with ZImmer and was injured too frequently, Trusnik was also a rental. Robinson might carry the most potential for re-signing but I don't find it likely (he'll absolutely find a new home though) given his depth chart position, health and comments from Zimmer over his tenure here. Wallace is obviously the biggest name here but it's hard to say he was anything but a bust. I can see the front office trying to re-structure as Zimmer/Turner seem to love him but I can just as easily see Wallace wanting to peddle his wares elsewhere -- for more cash -- likely someplace warmer (even with the new stadium set to open) with a team better suited to his strengths. He won't have a hard time finding a new home. This wouldn't be a huge loss in the scheme of things.

The most surprising to make this list might be Brandon Fusco. I've thought long and hard about this and in order for my "master plan" to come to fruition, someone on the existing offensive line needs to go. Fusco's contract makes it easy with no more guaranteed money. It's essentially a year-to-year contract and few guards were worse than Fusco this year. His release will count $2.4 million against the cap with $1.7 million savings. Not bad. Now, this isn't entirely his fault as he was playing a completely foreign position and some NFL OL guys I follow have said how difficult it is to make this transition. But with Harris filling in better than expected in Fusco's former RG spot (more details on that below), Fusco is the odd man out. I wouldn't be opposed to trying to bring him back to a lesser contract to compete to start at RG but I'd guess another team would pay more for his services. This is that hardest cut but it had to be done to see immediate improvement on the offensive line, which is priority A, B and C this offseason. However the potential return to health of two key starters may (should?) help that by default.

Re-sign:

Mike Harris:I wasn't a Harris fan from the start but he changed my mind (somewhat) this season and he seemed to get better and more comfortable playing a largely unfamiliar position. At least he wasn't consistently a liability. Harris has shown me with his adequate play filling in for Loadholt at RT in 2014 (where I think he's probably better suited) and now as a starting RG that he has value on this team, at worst as a competent depth player at RG/RT. I'm not sure he'd even necessarily be a downgrade to 2014 Fusco, which is partly why I deemed Fusco the odd man out. I wouldn't break the bank but he is deserving of a modest extension in the neighborhood of what Berger re-signed for this offseason (two-year, $2.15 million). It wouldn't shock me if he was re-signed for north of that given he's only 27. But I wouldn't declare him starting RG and he should face competition there. But Harris and Loadholt are BIG dudes and that's a lot of meat on the right side to impose their will, especially in the run game.

Matt Asiata: Asiata seems like a "Zimmer guy" -- tough, does what's asked, works hard, not a distraction. Should come cheap. Depth guy that's decent in all phases.

Audie Cole: Cole has the size, attitude and performance that I think has value to the team. He can play special teams and is a competent backup with borderline starting potential. I think he's valuable enough to bring back on a modest extension. We're not exactly flush with linebacker talent OR depth right now, especially after trading away Hodges, making re-signing Cole a good idea. His value to the team is probably higher than it'd be anywhere else. He won't be a priority extension and he could shop his wares but I can see something getting done at some point.

Rhett Ellison: I love me some Rhett. He does the "dirty work" and is damn good at it. He wouldn't get a lot of interest on the open market, especially coming off injury. "Blocking" tight ends aren't very expensive. Rhett also seems like a blue-collar "Zimmer guy." We have some depth at TE but nobody as good at what Rhett does.

Marcus Sherels: Of course he'll be here. The herpes of the Vikings you just can't get rid of him. That's said tongue-in-cheek as Sherels (not herpes) has grown on me. He's quietly one of the best punt returners in the league. I still think he's a liability on defense but I haven't seen him much in this system. A modest extension makes sense for the purple cockroach.

Terence Newman: A one-year extension makes sense after a surprisingly good year (though his play did drop off a bit towards the end). A transition to safety makes a lot of sense if he can do it (and he probably can), provided we don't require his services at corner (looking at you Waynes). He won't end his career anywhere else so it'll be with the Vikings or he'll hang 'em up. I expect him to play another season.

Chad Greenway: Another "old dude", Greenway had a better year than I thought he'd have. Both sides have expressed desire for another season so I expect it to get done. Provided he's not thrust into an every-down role he has proved he still has value and can make some plays. I don't want him on the field during passing downs, though. He'll come at a decent price for one more year of service in Purple.

Justin Trattou: Reports are other teams were interested in Trattou when he was briefly released to make room for another player but both sides wanted to join back up and I expect that to happen again. I'm not sure there was another player that did more with limited playing time than Trattou (maybe Hunter). He's got the size Zimmer likes and I'd be surprised if they didn't at least make an effort to re-sign him. He may want to go to a place where he'd get more playing time but I doubt that could be guaranteed. He didn't have THAT much awesome tape. Pity about the injury that cost him a chunk of games. He's a good rotational player that can make plays and get to the quarterback on a team that values a rotation.

Andrew Sendejo: This one can go either way for me. I'd prefer Sendejo to walk but he has special teams value and Zimmer did favor him over others next to Smith so that says something. I think we can probably get same/better production from Harris and/or Newman (and there's also Exum) but with Blanton walking there might be a depth issue there. I would hope we move on but it wouldn't shock me if he's back. A lot may come down to the draft. I don't see us signing any big name free agents to fill the role even though I have ideas to solidify that position.

Zach Line: signs RFA tender.

Adam Thielen: signs ERFA tender


Extend/restructure:

Harrison Smith: This one is a no-brainer. Smith is the lynchpin of Zimmer's secondary. He's going to command Devin McCourty-type cash (five-year, $47.5 million w. $28.5 million guaranteed), if not more. He'll instantly become one of the highest-paid players on the team and deserves to be.

Phil Loadholt: Prior to his injury it was reported he was having one of the best camps out of any offensive linemen and possibly out of any player on the team. He's steadily improved in each phase every year. The injury isn't great but it's not one he can't come back from. Jason Peters may be the most recent example of an offensive tackle not only recovering from this exact same injury but going to the Pro Bowl the very next year and landing a lucrative extension in the process. The good news is the injury occurred very early and provided everything went well he should be right on track for camp. My position on Phil is pretty clear at this point: when healthy he's an above-average right tackle and one of the best run-blocking tackles in the league period. Given how badly Clemmings played in his place, to me, it's a no brainer that Phil needs to be starting in 2016, especially considering the alternatives. Unlike Clemmings, Phil can actually handle guys one-on-one without it being a disaster, freeing our TEs to run more (and more diverse) routes. I have him under "Extend/restructure" because he's only under contract for this season at $5.4 million. The salary itself isn't too outlandish but once 2016 begins he'll have missed 21 consecutive games going back to his torn pec at the end of 2014. He seems to like the team and may sacrifice some of his 2016 base for and extension and some additional guaranteed cash. A three-year extension averaging around $4 million/year wouldn't be out of the question with some incentives built in. However it is possible the Vikings simply let him play out his 2016 contract and re-evaluate prior to 2017 free agency as they did before. The injury history has to be somewhat of a concern and they do have a history of letting guys play out their contracts (Allen, Peterson).

Matt Kalil: This one is tricky. He's coming off an "up" year that I felt, while the best since his rookie campaign, was still at or below league average for a starting LT. He's owed just north of $11 million in 2016. I understand the point of letting him play it out and see what happens (essentially "kicking the can down the road") but $11 million is too steep for my blood there. But I can't see them simply cutting him outright. Kalil isn't great (with a history of now chronic knee injuries), but he's a tough SOB that doesn't miss games and our options to replace him are abysmal. That's why I probably look to extend him -- as modestly as possible. I'd like it to just be two years but may have to concede three to get it done. I'd look to try and get him well under $7 million/year and look to the 2016 & 2017 draft for a potential replacement/competition. I just don't trust his busted knees to be Teddy's long-term blindside protector. A modest extension will buy the team some time while (hopefully) cutting his 2016 cap nearly in half. I'd structure the deal similar to Fusco (with incentives) so it's easy to cut him on a year-to-year basis with little to no cap ramifications. He hasn't performed well enough consistently enough to warrant a contract without those parameters.

Free Agent Signings:

Kelechi Osemele: I'm done screwing around. Osemele will be expensive but he will solidify a gaping hole at LG that hasn't been filled for years. No more trying to fit a guy in there that doesn't belong and hoping for the best. Osemele is a true LG (who can fill in at LT if needed). Fusco and potentially Loadholt's savings help make this more palatable. Kick in Kalil's lower cap number and we're not spending an excessive amount of cash on the line (though it'll still be up there). The other (more cost-effective) strategy is to simply move Berger to LG. I don't like this option for several reasons: 1) It's once again hoping a guy that was good at one position can be as good at another 2) You're banking on Sullivan being fully healthy after two pretty substantial back surgeries and staying that way. If I have the cash (which we should), I'm signing Osemele and sleeping better at night knowing the line has improved. That way Berger is a solid Plan B at center if Sullivan isn't back to form, which is a real possibility (not to mention Berger doesn't have many years left in the league). Missing out on Osemele I make a real run at Jeff Allen, who has experience all over the line, including LG where he did well in 2014. Both of these guys are young and we won't be in this same position again right away.

This can theoretically be done while retaining Fusco (perhaps to a restructure but that's unlikely after signing an extension just a year ago) to compete with Harris on the right side but I don't know how realistic that would be with a considerable amount of cap space being devoted to the line in that case. If it can be done, this would be my preference as Fusco is much better on the right side but I can see how that might not be possible.

Loadholt back at RT, Sullivan/Berger at C and Osemele at LG immediately upgrades this line. Considerably. This is even without needing a rookie to jump in and start right away.

Vincent Ray: Like PHP, I think Ray is a candidate here due to the Zimmer ties and our need for LB depth.

Unlikely scenario -- but one bearing consideration is signing Zach Brown from Tennessee to serve as MLB, moving Kendricks to OLB and moving on from Greenway. I like the speed aspect this brings but I don't expect that to happen, mostly because I don't see Rick being that active in free agency (outside of signing or own) and both sides seeming to want Greenway back for another season. We'll need to address the position in the draft sooner rather than later, though. I understand we have Barr/Kendricks but that's not enough for me going forward.

George Iloka or Tashaun Gipson: I've been a fan of Iloka's play and the Zimmer ties are obvious. Gipson has dealt with an ankle injury most of the year but he was a stud in 2014. The question comes down to money and how serious Zimmer is about finding a long-term starter at this position. Ultimately I suspect if Newman comes back (and at safety) that will render this a moot point. But that would only be a short-term solution (provided Newman can even play there effectively in the first place). Will Rick/Zimmer feel the combination of Newman/Exum/Harris is sufficient going forward? It wouldn't surprise me. This is a pretty good year for drafting a safety as well, so I fully expect nothing to be really done in free agency, especially considering the cash Harrison Smith will command. This is more wishful thinking than anything.

With Josh Robinson gone, we'll probably need to sign another corner. Brandon Boykin, Patrick Robinson and Jeremy Lane are second-wave options here.

I may do a draft-centric post at a later time but this was too long already. Needless to say draft priorities for me are: OG/OT, WR, C, S, CB, LB (mostly in that order).

Have at it!

[IrishViking]

In b4 "up year?!?!?!"



I agree, I'll say it again. I think with Rick/Zim and te implosion in cincy could be a huge resource for us this off season

[S197]

Well done!

Certainly some tough choices and I think some risks are going to need to be taken. Gambling that Phil returns to form I think this is fair. To be honest, my gut says Kalil doesn't deserve a multi-year contract, give him a 1-year "prove it" deal or let him walk. His salary is insane and the Vikings still need to think about extending guys like Rhodes and Floyd. The options are poor, but so is Kalil. I guess I'm in the camp that I really don't think he had a good year, hasn't since his rookie season.

It's clear there is a lot of issues with the line and I think it needs an overhaul more than 1 player. I think Sparano, Sully/Berger, Harris, and Loadholt is a good nucleus. If they can pick up a guy like Osemele then even better. At that point I think we could draft a LT and play a vet at the position for a year or so. If Sparano is at good at recognizing O-line talent as some of his past picks suggest, we shouldn't have to wait long for production.

[Mothman]

Good post, dead_poet. That's a lot of info to chew on... I have to think about it!

This might interest you: I read this morning, at the link below, that Rey wants to stay in Cincy. The article has him at a 95% chance of returning to the bengals. On the other hand, they have Iloka at 40% and they wrote:

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/ ... /78792568/

George Iloka

Age: 25, four seasons

Stats: Finished with 47 tackles and an interception, missing four games due to injury. Three-year starter at safety.

2015 snap percentage: 59 percent

2015 cap number: $1.6M

Outlook: He will be one of the most sought-after free-agent safeties this year. Talks broke off between the two sides seeking an extension prior to the season, and now Iloka could hit the market. Shawn Williams is ready to start in his place, but with Reggie Nelson, 32, also a free agent, the Bengals need to hold onto one of the two. Since Iloka enters his prime, he makes the most sense, but the two must find a middle ground in negotiations. Mike Zimmer loved what Iloka did for pass defense in his time with Cincinnati, so I’d expect Minnesota to make a play and Iloka to be very responsive to any Vikings offers.

They said it: “Especially hurts for me this year because I don’t know what my future holds in terms of this organization,” Iloka said after the playoff loss, not exactly exuding optimism about a return. “These are my brothers I’ve been training, sweating, shedding blood with them. I just wish if this is my last year on the way out we could make history for this organization.”

[losperros]

I've been thinking about things and here's what I would do if I was Rick. Feel free to agree or disagree but mostly agree.

Matt Kalil: This one is tricky. He's coming off an "up" year that I felt, while the best since his rookie campaign, was still at or below league average for a starting LT. He's owed just north of $11 million in 2016. I understand the point of letting him play it out and see what happens (essentially "kicking the can down the road") but $11 million is too steep for my blood there. But I can't see them simply cutting him outright. Kalil isn't great (with a history of now chronic knee injuries), but he's a tough SOB that doesn't miss games and our options to replace him are abysmal. That's why I probably look to extend him -- as modestly as possible. I'd like it to just be two years but may have to concede three to get it done. I'd look to try and get him well under $7 million/year and look to the 2016 & 2017 draft for a potential replacement/competition. I just don't trust his busted knees to be Teddy's long-term blindside protector. A modest extension will buy the team some time while (hopefully) cutting his 2016 cap nearly in half. I'd structure the deal similar to Fusco (with incentives) so it's easy to cut him on a year-to-year basis with little to no cap ramifications. He hasn't performed well enough consistently enough to warrant a contract without those parameters.

Nice job across the board, DP. An interesting read. Thanks.

I find Matt Kalil to be the biggest question mark on your list. I keep hoping he'll not only return to his rookie form but get better. And it doesn't happen. But I agree that he's a tough SOB who keeps plugging away and tries his hardest, though he simply doesn't seem to be a top shelf OL player. His injury history troubles me, so I hope the Vikings rework something contractually with him, unless they're planning to part ways with the guy. There is no way Kalil should be paid $11 million based on his questionable knees, let alone his overall performance on the field.

[dead_poet]

Well done!

Thanks! I hope Rick is reading.

Certainly some tough choices and I think some risks are going to need to be taken. Gambling that Phil returns to form I think this is fair. To be honest, my gut says Kalil doesn't deserve a multi-year contract, give him a 1-year "prove it" deal or let him walk.

Well, he's already signed for 2016, so that really IS his one-year "prove it" deal. The problem is $11 million is waaaaay too much "prove it" cash. Which is why I wanted a two-year deal but would take a three-year one if that's the way to get it done but structured in a way that makes it easy and cost-effective to get out of after 2016 (essentially making it a year-by-year deal).

At that point I think we could draft a LT and play a vet at the position for a year or so.

I'm hoping they do draft a LT prospect this year or next year with a legit chance to start by 2018 at the latest. I think that Kalil would BE that veteran you're talking about and come in at around the same (or potentially cheaper) per year than a decent other (perhaps more highly priced) veteran might.

If Sparano is at good at recognizing O-line talent as some of his past picks suggest, we shouldn't have to wait long for production.

I hope his input helps them find a few above-average guys with starting potential as soon as this draft class.

[dead_poet]

Good post, dead_poet. That's a lot of info to chew on... I have to think about it!

This might interest you: I read this morning, at the link below, that Rey wants to stay in Cincy. The article has him at a 95% chance of returning to the bengals. On the other hand, they have Iloka at 40% and they wrote:

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/ ... /78792568/

George Iloka

Interesting stuff, Jim. Thanks! As I said I think Iloka would be a great fit here and finally solidify the back end for us (hopefully Zimmer is getting as frustrated as we are with playing musical safeties). The presence of Zimmer will be attractive to him as will a new stadium I'm sure. But it'll come down to $$. How much do we want to spend on the safety position? How much can we? Maybe his injury helps in contract negotiations.

I didn't know that about Rey. If he stays in Cincy I still think we need to address the LB position sooner rather than later in some way. Greenway's production is still dwindling and I want three very productive/fast linebackers in our base defense.

[S197]

Well, he's already signed for 2016, so that really IS his one-year "prove it" deal. The problem is $11 million is waaaaay too much "prove it" cash. Which is why I wanted a two-year deal but would take a three-year one if that's the way to get it done but structured in a way that makes it easy and cost-effective to get out of after 2016 (essentially making it a year-by-year deal).

Yeah there's certainly no way he should be on the roster at $11 mil next year. If they can structure a 2/3 year deal where the hit is minimal if they let him go after 2016, I would be okay with that.

[fiestavike]

I just think its time to move on from Kalil. His upside is this year. He'll never be better than he just was, and is much more likely to be injured/worse. Why bother with him. Fusco at least has some upside as a fit in a power blocking scheme. Mike Harris and Joe Berger are great backups, capable of filling in when needed. Sully? Loadholt? Fusco? Sirles? Easton? Bykowski? etc? who knows. You can't count on any of them. Basically need to bring in 3-4 new starters and hope a couple of the other guys pan out. I'd be really aggressive in addressing this unit.

[PurpleMustReign]

I'm on my phone so i wont type much, but i want to see what Sparano can do with Kalil. I have to believe, assuming he is healthy, that he can be at least a decent player. With that said, i wouldn't be shocked if Kalil retired if his knees are indeed as bad as they seem.

Cold is temporary. Purple Pride is forever.

[PurpleMustReign]

Btw i would love to sign Iloka.

Cold is temporary. Purple Pride is forever.

[dead_poet]

I just think its time to move on from Kalil. His upside is this year. He'll never be better than he just was, and is much more likely to be injured/worse. Why bother with him. Fusco at least has some upside as a fit in a power blocking scheme. Mike Harris and Joe Berger are great backups, capable of filling in when needed. Sully? Loadholt? Fusco? Sirles? Easton? Bykowski? etc? who knows. You can't count on any of them. Basically need to bring in 3-4 new starters and hope a couple of the other guys pan out. I'd be really aggressive in addressing this unit.

You probably keep him until you're convinced you have a better or equal option on the roster. Cutting Kalil now means you not only need to sign a veteran stopgap (that may or may not be better than Kalil anyway and may cost you as much per year as Kalil on a short extension) but you probably also need to draft a LT in round 1 or 2. I hate need-based drafting. If you opt to not sign a free agent (or no upgrades are left because they signed elsewhere) you're stuck with either a seventh-rounder/UDFA or whatever rookie you pick. Some may not be the nervous nelly I am about rookie offensive linemen but I want this unit to be measurably better, not worse. If you're forced to rely on a rookie lineman, there's no guarantee that guy will be better or even as good as Kalil was last year. As most rookie linemen struggle I'd say it's even more likely your coveted rookie performs worse.

Kalil showed me this year he can be not awful when healthy. I want the 2016 offensive line to be definitively better, not potentially worse. Kalil is a known quantity. The unknown scares me more. I'm not chancing starting a rookie LT (but by all means draft one) and I'm not convinced there are better solutions available in free agency.

[fiestavike]

You probably keep him until you're convinced you have a better or equal option on the roster. Cutting Kalil now means you not only need to sign a veteran stopgap (that may or may not be better than Kalil anyway and may cost you as much per year as Kalil on a short extension) but you probably also need to draft a LT in round 1 or 2. I hate need-based drafting. If you opt to not sign a free agent (or no upgrades are left because they signed elsewhere) you're stuck with either a seventh-rounder/UDFA or whatever rookie you pick. Some may not be the nervous nelly I am about rookie offensive linemen but I want this unit to be measurably better, not worse. If you're forced to rely on a rookie lineman, there's no guarantee that guy will be better or even as good as Kalil was last year. As most rookie linemen struggle I'd say it's even more likely your coveted rookie performs worse.

Kalil showed me this year he can be not awful when healthy. I want the 2016 offensive line to be definitively better, not potentially worse. Kalil is a known quantity. The unknown scares me more. I'm not chancing starting a rookie LT (but by all means draft one) and I'm not convinced there are better solutions available in free agency.

I share all those concerns, I just feel very confident Kalil will be worse next year than he was this year, and even if he's just 'as good' I think this line will still stink next year.

I want them better, and I don't think Kalil helps in that process.

What date would they have to decide by anyway? Also, would it be considered a schmuck move to keep him around as insurance and then dump him after the first wave of FA if they bring in another LT?

[Pondering Her Percy]

Nice!!! We have another "Mock offseason" guy lol. I love looking at posts like this. I would like to see more guys on here do it.

As for the post, I agree with all your ideas. I don't know if I see Osemele hitting FA but its possible. I love Iloka as well. I would take him or Nelson (other Cincy safety) to be honest. Like seeing us resign Harris. I love Vinny Rey too. Be a perfect fit at WLB when Greenway retires

[losperros]

Kalil showed me this year he can be not awful when healthy. I want the 2016 offensive line to be definitively better, not potentially worse. Kalil is a known quantity. The unknown scares me more. I'm not chancing starting a rookie LT (but by all means draft one) and I'm not convinced there are better solutions available in free agency.

I agree the unknown is scary. But doesn't Kalil still bring an unknown dynamic with him? It just seems as if saying Kalil can be "not awful" when he's healthy is a left-handed compliment. Has he hit his ceiling, given the health concerns that are always present? And even if he is healthy from this point on, how good is he? Does anyone really know anymore? This is not a knock on Kalil because I want the guy to succeed. I just don't have as much confidence in him now as I did during his rookie season.

On that note, the Vikings really need starting OL players that are better athletes and are more than just adequate. It would open doors for the skill positions that we haven't seen in a while. That's my take, anyway.