Young Theodore Bridgewater

[mmvikes]

I don't know who would trade Teddy for Cutler (higher on the list) straight up, regardless of salary impact.

I know not everyone likes the fancy statistics, but I think the Carr vs. Bridgewater debate needs them. Carr was able to throw 21 TD's, while Bridgewater threw only 14. But so many of Teddy's TD's were eaten up by the goal-line prowess of Asiata. In that case, the Net Expected Points stat captures the fact that Teddy brought them to the brink of scoring (expected points for driving you team to first and goal is pretty good) a lot. According to that stat, Teddy created something like 30 points over expected, while Derek was some 50-60 points under expected points.

The other stats are Bad Decision Rate and Interceptible Passes, which showed Teddy to be way, way better at. Comb back through the thread for all these other statistical slices of QB rating.

HAHA. JV, I bet 80% of Chicago fans would trade Teddy for Cutler straight up.

[Hunter Morrow]

I would trade Cutler for a ham sandwich just to be out from under his heinously overpaid contract.
7 years, 126 million, it's so brutal. I would much rather have Teddy something like 5 years, 50 million
than Cutler 7 years/126 million.

[dead_poet]

I hadn't seen this posted yet.

Teddy Bridgewater’s NFL Personality Assessment

http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2014/05/05/te ... ssessment/

I’ve been given the green light to share basics about Teddy Bridgewater’s personality assessment that at least two-thirds of the league uses for rookie prospects.

I know the scores, but I have been cautioned not to share the exact numbers. What the source has confirmed is that Bridgewater scored exceptionally well on his personality assessment-very close to the highest possible score.

[DK Sweets]

Interesting. Hopefully his sources were real and the test is accurate.

[Mothman]

Bridgewater was ranked as a "Tier 3" QB in Mike Sando's annual QB tiers column:

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2015/7/21/ ... sando-espn

Sando doesn't give his own personal opinion about quarterbacks--anybody can arbitrarily rank QBs. What sets this ranking apart is how Sando arrives at his results. He polled 35 NFL coaches and evaluators to rank each of the 32 projected starters in one of five tiers

... it seems that some experts think his ceiling is fairly low:

"I think he is a 3 right now," a personnel director said. "He has a lot of confidence, some mobility, some little traits that you like. I just do not think he has a lot of a lot of those traits. He will flash 2, never be a 1 and settle in at being a 3, needing good people around him. He is one of those guys who is a jack of all trades, master of none."

A GM was quoted in the story challenging "anyone to find an area where Bridgewater projected as above average". Another director compared him to Andy Dalton, and it wasn't a compliment.

There's more at the link above. Apparently, Sando's column is only available to ESPN Insiders. There may be more info about Bridgewater there but I don't have a an Insider subscription that would enable me to check.

[fiestavike]

A GM was quoted in the story challenging "anyone to find an area where Bridgewater projected as above average". Another director compared him to Andy Dalton, and it wasn't a compliment.

Courage, decision making, composure, and possibly leadership. I'd put him top 10 or top 5 in all those categories.

With acceptable-good accuracy, athleticism, arm strength, I think the Drew Brees comparison is probably the best for current QBs, Alex Smith is maybe the low end comp. I think Bridgewater's highest possible ceiling comp is Joe Montana.

[HardcoreVikesFan]

Bridgewater was ranked as a "Tier 3" QB in Mike Sando's annual QB tiers column:

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2015/7/21/ ... sando-espn
There's more at the link above. Apparently, Sando's column is only available to ESPN Insiders. There may be more info about Bridgewater there but I don't have a an Insider subscription that would enable me to check.

Jim, here is the rest of the article. I know I am not really supposed to do this, but this article fired me up:

Average rating: 3.23 | Change in rating: N/A

2014 Rank: N/A

Bridgewater made it into the third tier after a 13-game rookie season featuring 14 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. That's not bad, but it's tough not to notice how much Bridgewater lagged behind Carr, his fellow 2014 rookie, in this survey.

"I think he is a 3 right now," a personnel director said. "He has a lot of confidence, some mobility, some little traits that you like. I just do not think he has a lot of a lot of those traits. He will flash 2, never be a 1 and settle in at being a 3, needing good people around him. He is one of those guys who is a jack of all trades, master of none."

A GM challenged anyone to find an area where Bridgewater projected as above average. Multiple voters thought Bridgewater would be a solid 3 playing with Adrian Peterson and under offensive coordinator Norv Turner. A personnel director who was one of five voters placing Bridgewater in the second tier cited the poise Bridgewater showed leading an offense without Peterson.

"I question his accuracy," a different director said. "Ten-plus yards down the field and in tight windows with the game on the line, I'm not sure. If you scheme it up and have a great run game with a top offensive coordinator, he is good. I don't know if he can ever put it on his back. You did not see it in college.

"I watched the Detroit game and he threw two picks that really cost them the game. He had to make a throw into a tight window. He does have poise. He makes pretty good decisions with the ball. He has some things you like and with the right offense and coordinator, you can win with him. He is very similar to the kid in Cincinnati, and that is OK. You get to 10 wins in this freaking league, you are making a lot of money."

I should have stopped reading when I saw Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick, and Matt Stafford all ahead of Teddy.

Which Detroit game? Teddy's second NFL start? Against a top 5 defense at the time? Yeah, that is really a good indicator of how he ranks in the NFL. *EDIT* If the personnel man was talking about the second Detroit game, I still disagree. Blair Walsh missed three field goals that game. He hits those and the team wins that game.

As for the pompous #### who asked if Teddy had an areas where he was above average, let's just look at his completion percentage. He had one of the best percentages in league history for a rookie QB. He won six games - as a rookie. A rookie without the best halfback in the NFL.

I am sick and tired of this bashing of the guy. I am sure these 'anonymous' personal directors are the same ones that either will have to compete with Minnesota consistently or have established quarterbacks. Yeah, it is not fair to to proclaim Teddy as the next greatest NFL QB after one season, but come on. Given last season's circumstances, I think Teddy at least SHOWED he has the ability to be a top fifteen or top ten NFL quarterback. Also, honestly, I will be fine if he never turns out to be a guy who throws 300+ a game. If Teddy continues to display great accuracy, decision making, and perpetuance to make the critical play to lead the team to victory, what more can I ask for?

[Cliff]

So you mean the 31 teams that didn't draft Teddy don't think he has what it takes to rise above that category? Amazing!

[losperros]

"I question his accuracy," a different director said. "Ten-plus yards down the field and in tight windows with the game on the line, I'm not sure. If you scheme it up and have a great run game with a top offensive coordinator, he is good. I don't know if he can ever put it on his back. You did not see it in college.

While it's true that Bridgewater played in a good offense in college, the above comment ends as a complete falsehood.

Teddy was the field general and leader for the Louisville offense. And yeah, there were times when TB carried them to wins.

It makes me wonder if the so-called "different director" ever really saw Bridgewater play in college.

[Mothman]

Jim, here is the rest of the article. I know I am not really supposed to do this, but this article fired me up:

Thanks!

Which Detroit game? Teddy's second NFL start? Against a top 5 defense at the time? Yeah, that is really a good indicator of how he ranks in the NFL. *EDIT* If the personnel man was talking about the second Detroit game, I still disagree. Blair Walsh missed three field goals that game. He hits those and the team wins that game.

I'm guessing he was talking about the second Detroit game and if so, I agree that Bridgewater's two picks were very, very costly. The first one set the Lions up deep in Vikings territory and led to a TD. The second set Detroit up at the Vikes 32 and they ended that drive with a FG. That's 10 of the Lions points in a 16-14 Vikes loss. Teddy's mistakes were a big factor in that outcome, although I don't think it's fair to just pin the loss on him, as that anonymous personnel director did.

As for the pompous #### who asked if Teddy had an areas where he was above average, let's just look at his completion percentage. He had one of the best percentages in league history for a rookie QB.

True, and when compared to other NFL starters, not just rookies I think his completion percentage is still slightly above average, so there you go: an area where he's above average.

I am sick and tired of this bashing of the guy. I am sure these 'anonymous' personal directors are the same ones that either will have to compete with Minnesota consistently or have established quarterbacks. Yeah, it is not fair to to proclaim Teddy as the next greatest NFL QB after one season, but come on. Given last season's circumstances, I think Teddy at least SHOWED he has the ability to be a top fifteen or top ten NFL quarterback. Also, honestly, I will be fine if he never turns out to be a guy who throws 300+ a game. If Teddy continues to display great accuracy, decision making, and perpetuance to make the critical play to lead the team to victory, what more can I ask for?

I agree with Craig that Bridgewater was the leader of that Louisville team and carried them at times so the director who said he didn't show the ability to put a team on his back in college was off base with that comment. That said, (and I hope this won't sound like bashing), while I like Bridgewater's potential, even as a Vikings fan I don't feel like I've seen great accuracy, decision-making or a significant ability to make the critical play from him yet with any degree of consistency. There have been flashes but overall, I thought he was a pretty average QB last year and I feel the coaches and evaluators Sando interviewed placed him in the right tier, based on where he is at this point in his young career. For those who didn't see the tiers, here's how they're described at that daily Norseman link above:

Tier 1 quarterbacks can carry their teams week after week and contend for championships without as much help.
Tier 2 QBs are less consistent and need more help, but good enough to figure prominently into a championship equation.
Tier 3 are quarterbacks who are good enough to start but need lots of support, making it tougher to contend at the highest level.
Tier 4 is typically reserved for unproven starters or those who might not be expected to last in the lineup all season. Voters used the fifth tier sparingly.

I think Bridgewater could conceivably move into Tier 2 as soon as this season but I don't think he's clearly demonstrated he belongs there yet. So far, he looks like he needs plenty of support but "so far", he's been a rookie, so that's to be expected. It will be really interesting to see how much progress he makes in his second season. I think the potential is there for a big leap forward, especially because, as one of those personnel directors pointed out, he has great poise.

[DK Sweets]

I view the ranking this way: if this is based off of what we've seen so far, I think 3 is fair. Questioning his college resume was clearly off base, but entering 2015 as a second year pro, a 3 is fair.

That said, I don't think he's going to stay at a 3 for long. If this is a grading of how he's going to be for the next 5 years or so, I think it's low. It really depends on what these grades are supposed to mean, and I think a lot of those quotes create a lot of ambiguity between whether we're discussing his long term prospects, this upcoming season, or what we've seen so far.

[jackal]

[quote]I think Bridgewater could conceivably move into Tier 2 as soon as this season but I don't think he's clearly demonstrated he belongs there yet. So far, he looks like he needs plenty of support but "so far", he's been a rookie, so that's to be expected. It will be really interesting to see how much progress he makes in his second season. I think the potential is there for a big leap forward, especially because, as one of those personnel directors pointed out, he has great poise.[quote]

Yeah I would say close to a Tier2 QB now... If Teddy is as good as we hope he should thrive with A.P. and improved wide out group this season.
I'm still worried about our OL group.

[mosscarter]

well based off of what we have seen so far, in my opinion has been pretty impressive considering last year's situation. he was thrown into the mix without a run game, an o-line, and no true deep threat. i believe patterson will turn out to be a bust. put peterson in the backfield, add wallace and a healthy rudolph and a better line and then we'll see. he had nothing around him last year. the way teddy moved laterally in the pocket last year especially impressed me.

[losperros]

I think Bridgewater could conceivably move into Tier 2 as soon as this season but I don't think he's clearly demonstrated he belongs there yet. So far, he looks like he needs plenty of support but "so far", he's been a rookie, so that's to be expected. It will be really interesting to see how much progress he makes in his second season. I think the potential is there for a big leap forward, especially because, as one of those personnel directors pointed out, he has great poise.

I think that sums it up right there, Jim. Bridgewater was a rookie last season and did not have the experience to be a top QB in the league. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but it's not a given either. Personally, I believe football intelligence and hard work are essential for a young player to develop into a top tier quarterback. Fortunately, it does appear as if Teddy has those attributes.

I sure wouldn't discount what Adrian Peterson coming back is going to do for Teddy and the offense. I also like the way the WRs look this year and you can bet this speedy group will make some big YAC plays, which will help Teddy's stats. Interesting how the present Vikings offensive scheme is starting to look like what Teddy had with his Louisville team.

BTW, another guy who might really benefit from having AD on the field is Cordarrelle Patterson.

[Mothman]

I view the ranking this way: if this is based off of what we've seen so far, I think 3 is fair. Questioning his college resume was clearly off base, but entering 2015 as a second year pro, a 3 is fair.

That said, I don't think he's going to stay at a 3 for long. If this is a grading of how he's going to be for the next 5 years or so, I think it's low. It really depends on what these grades are supposed to mean, and I think a lot of those quotes create a lot of ambiguity between whether we're discussing his long term prospects, this upcoming season, or what we've seen so far.

It's an annual ranking so it's probably safe to assume it's intended to rank the QBs based primarily on where they are at this point in their careers.