2015 Offseason - Free Agent/Draft Tracker

frosted · Post by **frosted** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:18 pm

Yes, it's unlikely we receive a compensatory pick, since we'll likely sign at least a couple UFAs ourselves.

Just pointing out an added bonus to signing a released player that meshes with my own personal philosophy when it comes to UFA.

Even if all you net is a 7th, a draft pick is a draft pick.

IMO, it's always good to keep it in mind when wading through UFA. Especially considering no one actually knows the compensatory pick formula, so I don't know how you guys can say definitively that none of these players could potentially factor into the formula - it seems extremely likely that Felton will (though at this point, Hill probably cancels him out).

Here's what our GM had to say about it a few days ago:

"A lot of times if you can sit back and hopefully let the market settle a little bit, the other thing I think that people do not recognize is there's a pretty good group of guys that's going to get cut or have been cut already," Spielman said. "If you potentially can fill some needs with guys getting released, that doesn't affect potential compensation or compensatory picks the following year. You weigh UFA, but you also put in all the guys that are potential street free agents, and then we can go that route, we may look at that route just because it could potentially help you with compensatory picks."

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frosted · Post by **frosted** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:20 pm

DK Sweets wrote:Nobody on that list is going to net us much of anything...

If Ponder, Brinkley, and any of the others sign for, let's say 1.5 to 2 million a year and we don't throw our hat in on any other UFAs (stick to released and post June 1st players), you don't think we can get even a 7 out that? Based on what information?

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DK Sweets · Post by **DK Sweets** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:28 pm

frosted wrote: If Ponder, Brinkley, and any of the others sign for, let's say 1.5 to 2 million a year and we don't throw our hat in on any other UFAs (stick to released and post June 1st players), you don't think we can get even a 7 out that? Based on what information?

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I can't definitively say we won't, but I can't definitively say that we will, either. To me, it's not worth that much thought because I would rather have the assurance of getting a player that we think can help out now than hoping we might get a seventh round pick next year.

Neither proposition is guaranteed, but that second option feels like a pretty bad poker hand.

frosted · Post by **frosted** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:33 pm

DK Sweets wrote:I can't definitively say we won't, but I can't definitively say that we will, either. To me, it's not worth that much thought because I would rather have the assurance of getting a player that we think might help than hoping we might maybe get a seventh round pick.

Depends on the player - if you're deciding between say, Michael Johnson and a player you value similarly who is a UFA, then perhaps you take it into consideration. Ozzie Newsom has made a front office career out of it.

Look, I realize this isn't going to be the most applicable year for this strategy, simply because Fusco and Rudolph were given extensions and they would have been our two biggest questions as UFAs. Not to mention Tom Johnson and Berger being resigned already. The point is, even in a yer where the list is this dry, it's worth mentioning and keeping in mind.

Since we're probs gonna sign a few UFA - can we make one of them Jeron Johnson!? I think he could solve our safety issue and would come at a reasonable cost. I'll say this - I think he's a better fit and I would prefer him to Rahim Moore, who I haven't been too impressed with after watching a bit of him the last two days.

I think I'll add it to my signature.

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DK Sweets · Post by **DK Sweets** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:37 pm

I'm not arguing the idea in general, I just think this isn't a year where it really matters for us. If we think either of those Johnsons are great fits, grab them (that feels weird to say).

Post by **dead_poet** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:40 pm

frosted wrote:Since we're probs gonna sign a few UFA - can we make one of them Jeron Johnson!? I think he could solve our safety issue and would come at a reasonable cost.

Isn't he a special teams guy? I can't imagine he'd be an upgrade on anybody that's currently on the roster.

frosted · Post by **frosted** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:42 pm

dead_poet wrote: Isn't he a special teams guy? I can't imagine he'd be an upgrade on anybody that's currently on the roster.

I think he'd be an upgrade over Blanton. YMMV.

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saint33 · Post by **saint33** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:43 pm

I don't know the formula, maybe I'm wrong but I was always under the assumption that it usually takes at least one decent contract to even be in the running for a pick. The players you've listed won't be looking at decent contracts.

Also, quick question about Felton. He wasn't technically an UFA this off season, as he voided the last year of his contract. Does this still count in the formula or does it register the same as being released.

frosted · Post by **frosted** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:44 pm

DK Sweets wrote:I'm not arguing the idea in general, I just think this isn't a year where it really matters for us. If we think either of those Johnsons are great fits, grab them (that feels weird to say).

Lol - felt weird to read. But yea, re: compensatory picks, probs won't end up mattering, but not out of the realm of possibility by any means, even in this year.

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frosted · Post by **frosted** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:46 pm

saint33 wrote:I don't know the formula, maybe I'm wrong but I was always under the assumption that it usually takes at least one decent contract to even be in the running for a pick. The players you've listed won't be looking at decent contracts.

Also, quick question about Felton. He wasn't technically an UFA this off season, as he voided the last year of his contract. Does this still count in the formula or does it register the same as being released.

I had the same Q about Felton, but saw so many NFL people on Twitter saying Revis will be in the compensatory formula for New England (maybe they don't know either, but..) that I assume it would be the same for Felton since Revis was also an option decline (though his was declined by the team, not the player).

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Post by **dead_poet** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:53 pm

frosted wrote:I had the same Q about Felton, but saw so many NFL people on Twitter saying Revis will be in the compensatory formula for New England (maybe they don't know either, but..) that I assume it would be the same for Felton since Revis was also an option decline (though his was declined by the team, not the player).

It's a good question. I'm not sure if the same rules apply to a player declining vs. a team.

This is a good read with some information on compensatory picks: http://www.patspulpit.com/2015/3/11/789 ... -kerfuffle

frosted · Post by **frosted** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:58 pm

saint33 wrote:I don't know the formula, maybe I'm wrong but I was always under the assumption that it usually takes at least one decent contract to even be in the running for a pick. The players you've listed won't be looking at decent contracts.

Also, quick question about Felton. He wasn't technically an UFA this off season, as he voided the last year of his contract. Does this still count in the formula or does it register the same as being released.

As far as the 'decent contract' qualifier, I was under the same impression, but after looking into some of the teams that have gotten them over the years and the list of players gained/lost issued by the NFL each year, I believe the 'decent' qualifier is a lot lower than one would think. I believe it also looks at playing time and 'postseason honors'.

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frosted · Post by **frosted** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:15 pm

DP -

Also, re: Jeron Johnson. Obviously I'm projecting quite a bit, but I really like his skill set, and if you get a chance, watch his tape from this year v. NYG. He started and looked really good, IMO. Good instincts, athleticism - he is a banger. Very physical and a sure tackler. Fits Zimmer's scheme, versatile.

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The Breeze · Post by **The Breeze** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:22 pm

Thanks for posting that piece quoting Spielman, Frosted.
It pays to remember that there are going to be quite a few more guys that hit the market as rosters get adjusted and players get cut.
Still a long way to the draft.

frosted · Post by **frosted** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:32 pm

The Breeze wrote:Thanks for posting that piece quoting Spielman, Frosted.
It pays to remember that there are going to be quite a few more guys that hit the market as rosters get adjusted and players get cut.
Still a long way to the draft.

No problem - not only that but there are soooo many quality UFAs still available, and at a significant discount compared to the funny money getting thrown at these guys signed the last few days. Way more bang for your buck.

And then of course, the lifeblood of the whole thing, and the most important piece, the draft.

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