Bridgewater starts when?

[Loki]

hey guys, been a while since i posted. Just wanted to let the post draft frenzy die down a bit before making speculations on things. To answer the question of when Bridgewater will start is tough to do now because he doesn't know the playbook yet, he has no chemistry with his teammates and is still adjusting to the speed of the Pro level. There are some things that we can look at that will give us a lot more insight into the situation, heres a few:

Positives

- Teddy is Very smart with the football, Rookies are expected to make mistakes while they are learning and Teddy will be no exception. The plus with Teddy is that he is very protective of the ball and lowered his interceptions every year in college. He may not throw as many TD's out of the gate as we'd all like but if he can keep his interceptions down it will be worth the learning experience.

- Teddy is doing everything in his ability to be in a position to compete for the starting job. Among other things Teddy stayed in Minnesota following the draft, threw passes with Kyle Rudolph, worked with Scott Turner on learning the playbook, stayed off social media, and was the first one to arrive and the last to leave most days.

- Teddy is a very fast learner. Teddy learned a pro-style offense at Louisville his freshman year and became a freshman all-american. The next year as a sophomore he was handed the keys to the offense from Coach Watson. He handled his own pass protection (something most college QB's don't do), handled audibles, and was even given the option of being given 3 play calls by the coach and Teddy picks one after reading the defense (something only a few NFL QB's are trusted with).

- Teddy is Mobile. While his focus is mostly pocket passing he shows excellent ability to move in the pocket and isn't a flashy runner but has enough speed to get first downs with his feet. This will be a huge help for him as a rookie because when a play breaks down he won't force bad throws but instead extend the play and possibly run for a few yards.

- Our offense is WAY better off than last time we started a rookie QB (Ponder). Ponder had Harvin but after that was receivers like Michael Jenkins and Devin Aromashodu and a rookie Kyle Rudolph. Teddy will have Veteran Greg Jennings, Rising Star Cordarelle Patterson, Former Pro Bowl MVP Kyle Rudolph, and excellent 3rd and 4th receivers in Jerome Simpson and Jarius Wright.

- Teddy won't be asked to lead our offensive attack. As long as we have Peterson we will be a run dominant team. Norv Turner may tend to be known for his passing schemes but don't forget he has had a 1,000 yard rusher in 15 of his 21 seasons, among those were Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, Frank Gore. He has also had luck with lesser talented backs like LaMont Jordan and Ryan Mathews. So expect Teddy to hand off to Peterson while keeping the drive alive with short throws and occasionaly attacking deep when the box is loaded.

- Coach Zimmer has stated openly that Teddy will have a shot to start week 1 and even went as far as to say he hopes Bridgewater is good enough to start. Also while Zimm had a hand in bringing back Cassel i wouldn't say Cassel is one of his "Guys", with Teddy being drafted in the first round the same year we hired Zimmer their careers will forever be linked, hence Bridgewater is likely one of Zimmers "Guys". Doesn't hurt to have the head coach in your corner.

- New System. The entire team is having to adjust to new schemes and playbooks. This bodes well for Teddy because he is really only a few weeks behind the other QB's as far as learning the playbook and new schemes.

- Vikings fan base and national media are behind Bridgewater (for the most part). This likely has the least pull of any of the factors but i still think it has some sway. If Cassel (or god forbid Ponder) end up starting and struggle early the Teddy chants will inevitably start. While I don't think Zimmer cares what the fans think it's not hard to see him pull the starter in a fiery storm of cuss words i he's stuggling and play Teddy from then on. Plus the media will consistently badger Zimm with questions of Teddy's prgress and when he will start keeping it allways in the forefront of his mind.

Negatives

- Teddy's Frame. Teddy will try and get his weight up before the season begins but if he doesn't it could be a factor in not playing him.

- Norv's System. Norv Turners offensive scheme is predicated on creating space by spreading out the defense and attacking deep to compliment the running game. While i think Norv will be an excellent teacher for Bridgewater his system may be less than ideal with all of the deep passes. Teddy is extremely accurate under 20 yards but struggles with throwing deep passes, Thats why many projected him to be best in a west coast system. The coaches may want him to improve accuracy on deep passes before he cracks the starting lineup.

- Matt Cassel. Cassel didn't play amazing last year, in fact he looked bad at times, but overall he played well enough to be the assumed starter coming into this season. I think with Cassel being a veteran and having chemistry with our receivers allready Teddy can't simply be as good as him to start. Teddy needs to show through training camp and pre-season games that he is hands down the better QB.

- Teddy left school early. People seem to forget that Teddy is an unfinished product, he left school his junior year to enter the draft. That's time teddy could've spent mastering his craft even more to be more ready for the NFL. Because he left early there may be things he still needs time to perfect and may cause him to sit the bench for a while.

Even with all this info its still impossible to accurately predict when Teddy will start, too many variables. But what I will say is that there are 3 spots that stand out to me as to when the coaching staff could decide to roll with Touchdown Teddy.

First off is the easiest prediction Week 1. If Teddy does everything asked of him he'll be the guy week 1.

The next spot I see as being logical is week 6. If Cassel wins the Job I doubt they pull him at the first sign of struggle. Our first 5 games are considerably difficult with rams, patriots, saints, falcons and packers. If Cassel loses 2 of the first 4 and then loses a division game to green bay I see that as the line in the sand. Bridgewater comes in at home against the lions, a division opponent with an average defense, and then plays bills, bucs and redskins (confidence builders) before hitting the bye week to rest up and prepare for the final stretch.

The final spot i see him getting the nod this season is week 11 against the bears coming out of the bye week. This is assuming teddy needs to correct something before the coaches will let him play. 10 weeks extra on top of training camp and pre season should be enough to add weight, fix mechanics, work on deep accuracy, learn the playbook or whatever it is the staff needs him to do. The bye would give teddy 2 weeks to get prepared specifically for his first opponent which would be extremely helpful to a rookie. The final stretch of our schedule is pretty rough but it would be a good learning experience and he would be fresh and well prepared with those extra 10 weeks spent learning from the bench.

[Reignman]

If Ponder is not here, I think there's a good chance we see Teddy by mid season. I could see Cassel going on one of his wretched streaks just before mid season and Zim going to Teddy looking for a late season spark. Or maybe Cassel gets injured. If Ponder is still here, I can see them going to him before Teddy because, well that's just our kind of luck xD.

That's still a < .500 Win % though.

7-6-3 is > .500 win % (.53125 to be exact). The Packers at 8-7-1 also had a .53125 win % so it would all come down to the 1st tie-breaker, which is head to head, so the Packers win the division because they were 1-0-1 against us.

Oh, now you're just being silly.

3 ties, though? Shoot me in the face. One was bad enough! Yuck.

We almost had a 2nd tie the very next week vs Chicago lol.

[Mothman]

Wow, I counted 29 uses of the name"Teddy" in that post, Loki!

Sorry, I know that wasn't the point but I just woke up so I'm easily distracted. Welcome back...

[Texas Vike]

Here's Goessling's take on the matter:

http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-vikin ... ridgewater

According to ESPN Stats & Information, 78 percent of rookie first-round QBs have started a game during their first season, with 49 percent of them starting within their team's first five games and 29 percent starting in Week 1.

The five-week threshold we discussed earlier could be worth keeping in mind; the Vikings open the season with three road games, as well as home dates with the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, in a 25-day span. If Cassel can't get the team off to a good start early, a 10-day layoff before an Oct. 12 home game against the Detroit Lions could be a good juncture for Bridgewater to enter the lineup. He'll have plenty of time between now and then to make his case to play earlier, but based on what we've seen from previous first-round QBs, it would be rare if Bridgewater made it through his entire rookie season without starting a game.

[dead_poet]

Let's just say I'm excited for what Bridgewater can do.

Cassel, Vikings QBs must fare better on third down

On the 80 dropbacks that PFF charted, Cassel completed just 37 of his 70 attempts for 536 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. His accuracy percentage -- completion percentage taking drops into consideration -- on third down was near the bottom of the league at just 62.9 percent, lower than quarterbacks such as Josh Freeman, Thaddeus Lewis and Brandon Weeden.

Interestingly, it was the shorter conversions that gave Cassel the most trouble. He ranked near the bottom of the league on both 3rd-and-medium and 3rd-and-short. When it came to the latter, Cassel completed just one of his 10 attempts with a NFL passer rating of zero point zero.

As for Ponder, he completed 41 of his 66 third-down attempts for 443 yards and his accuracy percentage was a little higher than Cassel's at 66.7 percent. He threw three interceptions on the down, though, with no touchdowns. Ponder also took 12 sacks, a lot on only 92 dropbacks.
The Vikings converted 36.4 percent their third downs, last in the NFC North and 19th in the NFL.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... um=twitter

[maembe]

If Ponder is not here, I think there's a good chance we see Teddy by mid season. I could see Cassel going on one of his wretched streaks just before mid season and Zim going to Teddy looking for a late season spark. Or maybe Cassel gets injured. If Ponder is still here, I can see them going to him before Teddy because, well that's just our kind of luck xD.
7-6-3 is > .500 win % (.53125 to be exact). The Packers at 8-7-1 also had a .53125 win % so it would all come down to the 1st tie-breaker, which is head to head, so the Packers win the division because they were 1-0-1 against us.

7-6 is a greater win percentage than 8-7, so we would win the division.

EDIT: That's a lie

[Just Me]

7-6 is a greater win percentage than 8-7, so we would win the division.

Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

So the Reignman was correct. (Definitely Correct. Definitely Correct. Judge Wapner at 4. Always watch Judge Wapner)

The final records are:

7-6-3 (8.5 Wins from 7 wins and 3 additional "half-wins" from 3 ties which total 1.5 additional "wins.")
8-7-1 (8.5 Wins from 8 wins and 1 additional "half-win" from 1 tie which total 0.5 additional "wins.")

8.5/16=0.53125 or 53.125% Winning percentage. We would then lose the division on the tiebreak...

[Eli]

Interestingly, it was the shorter conversions that gave Cassel the most trouble. He ranked near the bottom of the league on both 3rd-and-medium and 3rd-and-short. When it came to the latter, Cassel completed just one of his 10 attempts with a NFL passer rating of zero point zero.

Did Cassel play without Kyle Rudolph for the most part? That's a huge loss in the 3rd and short-to-medium department.

[maembe]

So the Reignman was correct. (Definitely Correct. Definitely Correct. Judge Wapner at 4. Always watch Judge Wapner)

The final records are:

7-6-3 (8.5 Wins from 7 wins and 3 additional "half-wins" from 3 ties which total 1.5 additional "wins.")
8-7-1 (8.5 Wins from 8 wins and 1 additional "half-win" from 1 tie which total 0.5 additional "wins.")

8.5/16=0.53125 or 53.125% Winning percentage. We would then lose the division on the tiebreak...

Oh, I didn't realize that they counted as a half a win and half a loss, I suppose it makes more sense that way. I though it was just based on wins and losses for some reason.

[Funkytown]

So the Reignman was correct. (Definitely Correct. Definitely Correct. Judge Wapner at 4. Always watch Judge Wapner)

The final records are:

7-6-3 (8.5 Wins from 7 wins and 3 additional "half-wins" from 3 ties which total 1.5 additional "wins.")
8-7-1 (8.5 Wins from 8 wins and 1 additional "half-win" from 1 tie which total 0.5 additional "wins.")

8.5/16=0.53125 or 53.125% Winning percentage. We would then lose the division on the tiebreak...

Y'all are spending too much time on these fantasy tiebreaker scenarios. If the Vikings avoided those "several last second gaffes" as Slick Rick originally suggested, we would have won the division...no tiebreaker scenario necessary. Or were there only 3 last-minute disasters? I thought there were 4 or 5. Ugh, what a rough season. Add in that stupid tie with the Packers...

[Slick Rick]

Y'all are spending too much time on these fantasy tiebreaker scenarios. If the Vikings avoided those "several last second gaffes" as Slick Rick originally suggested, we would have won the division...no tiebreaker scenario necessary. Or were there only 3 last-minute disasters? I thought there were 4 or 5. Ugh, what a rough season. Add in that stupid tie with the Packers...

Should have beat Chicago, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Baltimore. We blew it against Detroit early in the season too...

[Funkytown]

Should have beat Chicago, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Baltimore. We blew it against Detroit early in the season too...

What about Dallas? Either way, the point remains the same. And...ick.

[Just Me]

Y'all are spending too much time on these fantasy tiebreaker scenarios. If the Vikings avoided those "several last second gaffes" as Slick Rick originally suggested, we would have won the division...no tiebreaker scenario necessary. Or were there only 3 last-minute disasters? I thought there were 4 or 5. Ugh, what a rough season. Add in that stupid tie with the Packers...

I spent almost no time on the scenario(s) I only pointed out how to calculate ties in standings properly. (Or more accurately, confirmed that Reignman's initial assessment was correct).

[Funkytown]

Reignman usually is correct, and oftentimes about mean things. Darn him, but that's part of his charm!

[Arma]

I really don't want another QB carousel. If we have to sit Cassel that means we are sucking. I hope Teddy wins Week 1.