Do you want Johnny Manziel at #8?

[thatoneguy]

Definitely would NOT want Manziel.

[Texas Vike]

QB is a position of out-sized importance in the NFL. You have solid play at QB you can win even if you're shaky elsewhere. You have inconsistent or crap play at QB and you will struggle to win even if the rest of the team is very solid.

JFB is the single QB in this year's class who has the potential to be a game-changer at the pro level. Not just a competent QB, but the sort of QB who can alter how a defense prepares and plays. It's not because he has a huge arm, because he's tall or particularly fast, but because the guy has that "it" factor. He makes plays when he shouldn't. He's a guy in the mold of guys who have had a lot of success as pros like Tarkenton and Favre. Sure, each of those guys had their downsides, but in terms of the ability to make something out of nothing, to keep plays alive, to get the fans on their feet cheering and believing when those feet have every reason to be trudging up the stairs and headed for the nearest exit, JFB has that.

I don't know where the Vikes have JFB ranked on their board. As an advocate of BPA, especially with a very high pick like #8, if they have a guy ranked higher who is there at the slot by all means they should take him, but I have a hard time believing someone better than JFB is going to be there when #8 rolls around. Bringing Cassel back was a solid move by Spielman and it takes the pressure off at QB, but by no means does it provide a license to ignore QB in favor of a player at another position of greater immediate "need". JFB would be excellent value at #8. By no means is he a lock there, but Spielman would have to be crazy to pass on him in favor of a guy like Mosley. If it comes to it, there is no comparison there IMHO. Mack, that would be closer, but a tie has to go to the position in that case and QB would clearly carry the pick over LB.

I'm beginning to think there is a really good chance JFB will be there at #8. This is the season of guys showing off their athleticism in shorts and t-shirts, when height and weight and "potential" seem to dull the senses of NFL scouts and GMs. Honestly, that's good for the Vikings, because JFB is going to get discounted heavily due to that insanity. Very good chance he slips to 8 as this process goes on IMHO.

Nice post.

Interesting that the no posts here are terse and don't provide substantial reasoning like your post. Seems like a no position to JFB is usually emotional and/or based on a dislike of him, as a person. Or, better said, the image of him that has been constructed in the media.

[Raptorman]

I don't have a problem with him at 8. I don't think he will fall that far but you never know. For that matter, if any of the top 3 QB's fell to number 8 I don't see how they can reasonably pass on taking him. Unless of course they see something that we as fans don't see. I actually hope all three are gone by pick 7 then it's not a issue. I don't see them reaching for a QB that should be going in round two at pick 8.

[Mothman]

Interesting that the no posts here are terse and don't provide substantial reasoning like your post. Seems like a no position to JFB is usually emotional and/or based on a dislike of him, as a person. Or, better said, the image of him that has been constructed in the media.

A lot of the "no posts" around here tend to be terse like that.

I think it's been a long time since the draft provided such a great example of how difficult it is to project a college player to the pros. It's pretty easy to construct a case for or against drafting Manziel in the top 10, even without getting emotional or allowing a bias toward him as a person to get in the way. That's why, although I agree with VikingLord that signing Cassel doesn't provide a license to ignore QB in favor of a player at another position of greater immediate "need", it also doesn't mean the Vikings need to jump on the highest-ranked QB that falls to them, even if he has that 'it" factor. Plenty of college players with the so-called "it" factor have failed to translate their playmaking ability into a long, productive career in the pros. Some have been been busts. There are as many reasons to question Manziel's value as a high draft pick as there are to draft him.

I think the case against him goes like this: his height and style of play could easily work against him in the pros. He often does things as a college QB that draw heavy criticism and lead to bad mistakes at the NFL level. For example, he'll fail to see open receivers or just choose to pass on throwing to open receivers in favor of looking for more (sound familiar, Vikes fans?). Forcing things like that can often lead to turnovers. Leaving the pocket as often as he does could lead to injuries and durability problems in the pros, where the pursuit can be faster and "deadlier" than in college. His mechanics need work too and of course, there are questions about his maturity. I'm not too worried about the latter but the questions are out there.

The positives are obvious but personally, I think there are enough reasons to question how his game will translate to the NFL that I wouldn't blame any team for passing on him early in the draft. Based on his college career, I wouldn't blame a team for taking him early either. It really just depends on how they believe he'll fit into their offense, their team, and whether they believe he can do for their team what he did for Texas A&M. Let's face it, nobody knows what the next chapter in Manziel's career is going look like!

[Texas Vike]

A lot of the "no posts" around here tend to be terse like that.

I think it's been a long time since the draft provided such a great example of how difficult it is to project a college player to the pros. It's pretty easy to construct a case for or against drafting Manziel in the top 10, even without getting emotional or allowing a bias toward him as a person to get in the way. That's why, although I agree with VikingLord that signing Cassel doesn't provide a license to ignore QB in favor of a player at another position of greater immediate "need", it also doesn't mean the Vikings need to jump on the highest-ranked QB that falls to them, even if he has that 'it" factor. Plenty of college players with the so-called "it" factor have failed to translate their playmaking ability into a long, productive career in the pros. Some have been been busts. There are as many reasons to question Manziel's value as a high draft pick as there are to draft him.

I think the case against him goes like this: his height and style of play could easily work against him in the pros. He often does things as a college QB that draw heavy criticism and lead to bad mistakes at the NFL level. For example, he'll fail to see open receivers or just choose to pass on throwing to open receivers in favor of looking for more (sound familiar, Vikes fans?). Forcing things like that can often lead to turnovers. Leaving the pocket as often as he does could lead to injuries and durability problems in the pros, where the pursuit can be faster and "deadlier" than in college. His mechanics need work too and of course, there are questions about his maturity. I'm not too worried about the latter but the questions are out there.

The positives are obvious but personally, I think there are enough reasons to question how his game will translate to the NFL that I wouldn't blame any team for passing on him early in the draft. Based on his college career, I wouldn't blame a team for taking him early either. It really just depends on how they believe he'll fit into their offense, their team, and whether they believe he can do for their team what he did for Texas A&M. Let's face it, nobody knows what the next chapter in Manziel's career is going look like!

Are you in the "no" camp then? or the "on the fence" camp? I am somewhat on the fence, but I think I'm a yes.

I appreciate your effort to outline the no argument w/ critical analysis, but I've never heard the critique that he doesn't go through progressions. I have watched a good number of A & M games and as much as I would want to dislike JFB (as a UT Longhorn alum, I automatically dislike the aggies) I don't think that critique holds up. I think you could critique him for forcing balls into inadvisable spots, certainly, but he's not a one read and run guy at all.

My concern for him is when I watched him play LSU this year. He looked very average. I don't know what exactly happened to him that day, but he was not himself. LSU figured something out. Part of me is afraid that NFL D coordinators might be able to figure the same thing out.

[VikingLord]

The positives are obvious but personally, I think there are enough reasons to question how his game will translate to the NFL that I wouldn't blame any team for passing on him early in the draft. Based on his college career, I wouldn't blame a team for taking him early either. It really just depends on how they believe he'll fit into their offense, their team, and whether they believe he can do for their team what he did for Texas A&M. Let's face it, nobody knows what the next chapter in Manziel's career is going look like!

One of my favorite comedies is "Monty Python's Search for the Holy Grail". One scene in particular is relevant to the question of drafting Manziel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgj3nZWtOfA

King Arthur and his Knights are NFL scouts, GM's, and some fans. When they look at Manziel they see just a rabbit and discount him based on that. But as the sorcerer Tim says, "Look at the bones!"

How will Manziel's game translate to the pros? How did it translate against arguably the closest thing college football had to a pro-level defense against Alabama, and not once, but twice? How did it translate against teams in a very solid conference that gameplanned to stop him?

I concede there are no guarantees and Manziel could flop as a pro, but if past performance is the best indicator of future performance, Manziel's ability to succeed as a pro is one of the least of my worries. Manziel is no Tebow who was flashing red warning signs in terms of his ability as a passer when in college.

What does worry me about Manziel are some of the off-field stuff. Will he be able to handle that, or will those distractions pull him away from working on his craft and fine-tuning his game? That is where my concerns lie. If Manziel applies himself and works hard, and especially if he can get some time to acclimate to the pros behind a vet like Cassel, I'm convinced the reaction around the league will be "That JFB is dynamite!"

[Texas Vike]

One of my favorite comedies is "Monty Python's Search for the Holy Grail". One scene in particular is relevant to the question of drafting Manziel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgj3nZWtOfA

King Arthur and his Knights are NFL scouts, GM's, and some fans. When they look at Manziel they see just a rabbit and discount him based on that. But as the sorcerer Tim says, "Look at the bones!"

How will Manziel's game translate to the pros? How did it translate against arguably the closest thing college football had to a pro-level defense against Alabama, and not once, but twice? How did it translate against teams in a very solid conference that gameplanned to stop him?

I concede there are no guarantees and Manziel could flop as a pro, but if past performance is the best indicator of future performance, Manziel's ability to succeed as a pro is one of the least of my worries. Manziel is no Tebow who was flashing red warning signs in terms of his ability as a passer when in college.

What does worry me about Manziel are some of the off-field stuff. Will he be able to handle that, or will those distractions pull him away from working on his craft and fine-tuning his game? That is where my concerns lie. If Manziel applies himself and works hard, and especially if he can get some time to acclimate to the pros behind a vet like Cassel, I'm convinced the reaction around the league will be "That JFB is dynamite!"

Nice analogy. Performance IS the best indicator (not combine numbers or measurables) and he certainly did prove himself at the highest level of college ball.

[Delaqure]

So just what are JFBs positives? I keep hearing that he could be super. What has he shown that could be super. Having the "it" factor isn't enough for me. What skills has he shown hat could translate well to the NFL? Does he throw well? How are his mechanics? Can he read defenses? Does he find the open man? Does he run too early? That's what I want to know. He could be a passionate person but so what? Passion doesn't complete passes in tight coverage. Passion doesn't see the 2nd and 3rd reads.

I'm not dogging him because I don't really know anything about him. These are serious questions. I have no problem with picking him at #8 if he looks like he can throw when and where he is supposed to and he can read defenses and run when necessary. If he struggles with making he right reads or throwing it up on a wing and a prayer or running to soon and too often then he scares me.

[Mothman]

Are you in the "no" camp then? or the "on the fence" camp? I am somewhat on the fence, but I think I'm a yes.

At the moment, I'm balanced so perfectly on the fence that I'm in no danger of falling off on either side. As I said, I think he's the best example in a long time of how difficult it can be to project a college player to the pros. I think he could become anything from a great NFL QB to a complete bust and I have absolutely no idea what will happen.

I appreciate your effort to outline the no argument w/ critical analysis, but I've never heard the critique that he doesn't go through progressions.

It's not so much that he doesn't go through progressions, it's that he'll have an open receiver and won't throw to him because he's looking to make a bigger play. Sometimes that's good and it results in a bigger play but sometimes he's just passing up yardage and not playing within the offense. Greg Cosell is one of the analysts I've seen point this out but it's something even I noticed when watching him play.here's a link to Cosell's comments:

Cosell has favored quarterbacks who make more plays from the pocket and have the ability to anticipate throws, which would explain why he is not very high on Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel.

http://tampa.cbslocal.com/2014/03/02/gr ... s-vikings/

Cosell was surprised at “how many times Manziel did not throw to open receivers” and that he abandons the pocket when he doesn’t need to.

“I think it’s very hard in the NFL to live on the edge when you don’t need to,” Cosell said. ”If you live on the edge too often, you will fall off the cliff, in my view, in the NFL.”
Cosell also believes the comparison of Manziel to Russell Wilson is not a good one.

“When it’s third-and-six, and Russell Wilson sees he can run for eight yards and get a first down, he just runs for eight yards and gets out of bounds,” Cosell explained. “There’s a purpose to his movement. Now I’m interpreting Johnny Manziel on film, but quite frankly, when he moves I see a guy who moves, and then tries to figure it out. And I’m not sure that that works in the NFL.”

My concern for him is when I watched him play LSU this year. He looked very average. I don't know what exactly happened to him that day, but he was not himself. LSU figured something out. Part of me is afraid that NFL D coordinators might be able to figure the same thing out.

Whatever it is, they're likely to figure it out so it will be his ability to adapt and grow when that happens that will help define his NFL career.

I'm neutral when it comes to Manziel. I don't mean that I'm indifferent, it's just that I see a lot in his game to be excited about and I see reasons to be very nervous about him as a pro QB. If the Vikes draft him, I certainly don't intend to criticize them for it. I'll just be hoping the upside of his game prevails and he becomes a great pro QB.

[Mothman]

How will Manziel's game translate to the pros? How did it translate against arguably the closest thing college football had to a pro-level defense against Alabama, and not once, but twice? How did it translate against teams in a very solid conference that gameplanned to stop him?

He did very well but a pro team would mop the floor with Alabama or any other college program. The NFL represents a step up in the level of competition and there's a long list of absolutely great college players who didn't play nearly as well at the next level.

[frosted]

He did very well but a pro team would mop the floor with Alabama or any other college program. The NFL represents a step up in the level of competition and there's a long list of absolutely great college players who didn't play nearly as well at the next level.

That's for sure.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

[losperros]

I have watched a good number of A & M games and as much as I would want to dislike JFB (as a UT Longhorn alum, I automatically dislike the aggies) I don't think that critique holds up. I think you could critique him for forcing balls into inadvisable spots, certainly, but he's not a one read and run guy at all.

My concern for him is when I watched him play LSU this year. He looked very average. I don't know what exactly happened to him that day, but he was not himself. LSU figured something out. Part of me is afraid that NFL D coordinators might be able to figure the same thing out.

Wow. This shows how subjective football is, I guess. As a SEC fan, I also saw a bunch of Texas A&M games and Manziel taking off before the WRs get a chance to get open was a problem. Thing is, it often worked for him in a razzle-dazzle way. But that's at a college level and even in SEC ball, which is the best college ball in the nation, that's important to note. Anyway, does he commit "one read and run" sins? Absolutely. Jim is right. This sounds eerily familiar and it's a dynamic that simply must not follow JFB to the pros. It's also a logical reason why any Vikings fan would be concerned about Manziel.

That said, I find your concern about Manziel against LSU to be a valid one as well. Why did LSU stop Manziel two years in a row? Well, after watching a lot of LSU, including their winning games against the Aggies, I'll offer my theory. LSU has fast and disciplined D players, and a pro style defensive system designed by DC John Chavis. That means players sticking with their assignments and not going improvisational on plays. As a result, the Tigers didn't let Manziel roll out all that much to run or pass, and they didn't allow him to find open lanes in the middle to run either.

Look at it this way. Before LSU played the Aggies this year, I recall Chavis saying that they were going to force Manziel to throw the ball. And that's what they did. If you recorded the last game, watch it again. You'll see what I mean. The problem with throwing against LSU is that their D secondary was smart and athletic.

However, don't get me wrong about Johnny Manziel. As I posted earlier in this thread, I won't complain one bit if the Vikings draft Manziel. It will be a risk, but personally, I believe every pick is questionable until the players prove their game can adapt to pro ball. Manziel is ultra-talented. No doubt about that whatsoever. I don't think that can even be debated. And I don't think the risk of him being a bust is any greater than any other player in the draft. But there is a risk, just as there is for any player.

[John_Viveiros]

As always, I answered the question as asked: 'Do I want JFB at #8?' No. I do not. I want him to be gone by number 8.

But if he drops to #8, I think the Vikings have to draft him, unless Bortles is there. Maybe Bridgewater too.

<disclaimer>...Given that we know everything the NFL knows about Manziel</disclaimer>

[Mothman]

Wow. This shows how subjective football is, I guess. As a SEC fan, I also saw a bunch of Texas A&M games and Manziel taking off before the WRs get a chance to get open was a problem. Thing is, it often worked for him in a razzle-dazzle way. But that's at a college level and even in SEC ball, which is the best college ball in the nation, that's important to note. Anyway, does he commit "one read and run" sins? Absolutely. Jim is right. This sounds eerily familiar and it's a dynamic that simply must not follow JFB to the pros. It's also a logical reason why any Vikings fan would be concerned about Manziel.

That said, I find your concern about Manziel against LSU to be a valid one as well. Why did LSU stop Manziel two years in a row? Well, after watching a lot of LSU, including their winning games against the Aggies, I'll offer my theory. LSU has fast and disciplined D players, and a pro style defensive system designed by DC John Chavis. That means players sticking with their assignments and not going improvisational on plays. As a result, the Tigers didn't let Manziel roll out all that much to run or pass, and they didn't allow him to find open lanes in the middle to run either.

Look at it this way. Before LSU played the Aggies this year, I recall Chavis saying that they were going to force Manziel to throw the ball. And that's what they did. If you recorded the last game, watch it again. You'll see what I mean. The problem with throwing against LSU is that their D secondary was smart and athletic.

However, don't get me wrong about Johnny Manziel. As I posted earlier in this thread, I won't complain one bit if the Vikings draft Manziel. It will be a risk, but personally, I believe every pick is questionable until the players prove their game can adapt to pro ball. Manziel is ultra-talented. No doubt about that whatsoever. I don't think that can even be debated. And I don't think the risk of him being a bust is any greater than any other player in the draft. But there is a risk, just as there is for any player.

Great post, Craig, Thanks for that perspective and for the comments about the LSU game. Much appreciated!

[Texas Vike]

Wow. This shows how subjective football is, I guess. As a SEC fan, I also saw a bunch of Texas A&M games and Manziel taking off before the WRs get a chance to get open was a problem. Thing is, it often worked for him in a razzle-dazzle way. But that's at a college level and even in SEC ball, which is the best college ball in the nation, that's important to note. Anyway, does he commit "one read and run" sins? Absolutely. Jim is right. This sounds eerily familiar and it's a dynamic that simply must not follow JFB to the pros. It's also a logical reason why any Vikings fan would be concerned about Manziel.

That said, I find your concern about Manziel against LSU to be a valid one as well. Why did LSU stop Manziel two years in a row? Well, after watching a lot of LSU, including their winning games against the Aggies, I'll offer my theory. LSU has fast and disciplined D players, and a pro style defensive system designed by DC John Chavis. That means players sticking with their assignments and not going improvisational on plays. As a result, the Tigers didn't let Manziel roll out all that much to run or pass, and they didn't allow him to find open lanes in the middle to run either.

Look at it this way. Before LSU played the Aggies this year, I recall Chavis saying that they were going to force Manziel to throw the ball. And that's what they did. If you recorded the last game, watch it again. You'll see what I mean. The problem with throwing against LSU is that their D secondary was smart and athletic.

However, don't get me wrong about Johnny Manziel. As I posted earlier in this thread, I won't complain one bit if the Vikings draft Manziel. It will be a risk, but personally, I believe every pick is questionable until the players prove their game can adapt to pro ball. Manziel is ultra-talented. No doubt about that whatsoever. I don't think that can even be debated. And I don't think the risk of him being a bust is any greater than any other player in the draft. But there is a risk, just as there is for any player.

Your post is a perfect reflection of just how enigmatic this guy is. Sounded to me like you were a resounding NO … and then you wrote "however…"
Despite our differences of opinion, I enjoyed reading your post.