Fire Spielman too?

[Pondering Her Percy]

You really think this list of players supports your argument that Spielman rocks and Frazier and staff are garbage. I see at best a list of players whose upside is lower tier NFL talent with a few exceptions (Sullivan, Wright, Walsh). Did you consider even for a moment the possibility that Frazier and staff have done a good job of making marginal NFL talent (Erin Henderson, Audie Cole) look serviceable in games. At the end of the day, this is likely the worst defense in terms of points allowed in Vikings history. I don't know the football x's and o's. But I know Rick Spielman has had a key role in decision making going back to June 2006 before Childress first season. I find it funny that many on this Board give Coaches zero credit for seasons like 2008 and 2009 and 2012 but give Speilman a free pass on seasons like 2010, 2011, and 2013. It's time to make a fresh start. Otherwise, Spielman hires a lower tier coach because he's a weak GM at this point, on thin ice. And the team continues a path with upside being lower tier NFL performance. I don't want to see it anymore. Sorry.

Well obviously you aren't looking at that list close enough. Brian Robison has been a very solid DE for us and just currently received an extension and Brandon Fusco is a top 10 OG in the NFL right now according to Pro Football Focus. Let's not forget Everson Griffen either. How you leave out 3 of the best players on that list is beyond me.

Also...now all of the sudden Frazier and his staff are the ones making Henderson and Cole look serviceable?? Do you not realize that if it wasn't for Spielman...Henderson and Cole wouldn't even be on this team?? And you're also forgetting that the only reason Cole EVER saw any time at MLB is because Henderson got a DWI. If that didn't happen, Cole wouldn't even be in this conversation right now.

It's baffling that many defend Frazier and his below average staff and try to throw the blame Spielman's way. As I've said many times before....Rick Spielman's job is to provide the talent and Frazier's job is to put that talent to good use. Spielman has provided the talent but Frazier does not put his talent to good use and has let injuries/suspensions decide who plays. He let two players that were the arguably the most talented at their respective positions (CB- Rhodes and X WR- Patterson) ride the bench for over half the year. And if you look into it, the only reason Rhodes got the start was because Robinson got hurt and the only reason Patterson started was because Simpson got a DWI. Same goes for Cole when Henderson got pinched. Matt Cassel was no different when Ponder got hurt. Frazier's/Musgrave's underutilization of Carlson comes into play as well. Oh and let's not forget how Sherels outplayed Robinson in the slot this year and the only reason Sherels got the start was because our defensive backfield was depleted. The fact is....I think it's pretty obvious that Frazier doesn't have the balls to tell guys "You're the backup today". He's too "buddy-buddy" with everyone. We need someone in here that has some fire under their rear and knows how to utilize talent. Mike Zimmer comes to mind.

[CalVike]

Also...now all of the sudden Frazier and his staff are the ones making Henderson and Cole look serviceable?? Do you not realize that if it wasn't for Spielman...Henderson and Cole wouldn't even be on this team?? And you're also forgetting that the only reason Cole EVER saw any time at MLB is because Henderson got a DWI. If that didn't happen, Cole wouldn't even be in this conversation right now.

Neither player is NFL caliber IMHO. A better GM would supply higher level talent than these particular 7th round/ undrafted players with limited upside. Clearly we disagree on the abilities of Erin Henderson and Audie Cole. They cannot be released (or at the very least returned to low level backup roles) fast enough for me.

It's baffling that many defend Frazier and his below average staff and try to throw the blame Spielman's way.

I started this thread and titled it "Fire Spielman too" for a reason. I think the results in 2011 and 2013 justify fully the termination of Frazier, who has been on staff since 2007, because these are two of the worst seasons in Vikings history. I just think Spielman, just because he was officially named GM only after the 2011 debacle, does not deserve the same level of patience as someone who was freshly named GM at that time with no past tie to the organization. Spielman was part of the infamous triangle of authority and his imprint all over the lack of talent at certain positions going all the way back to June 2006. Ownership needs to make a clean break and start a new direction now. But they won't. Most organizations resist change, not surprising at all that Spielman will stay. But my personal opinion, and again we disagree on this point, is that Spielman has had far more than enough time to produce a Super Bowl winner. That he hasn't and that he has presided over 2 of the 3 worst seasons in the Vikings history in 2011 and 2013 (and he had a stronger role in 2011 than you are giving him discredit) is curtains for him in my mind.

All that said, I will root strongly for him to reverse his horrible lack of ability in picking a QB moving forward. That decision alone should be the nail in his coffin, again we'll have to agree to disagree on that one. Skol!

[Pondering Her Percy]

Neither player is NFL caliber IMHO. A better GM would supply higher level talent than these particular 7th round/ undrafted players with limited upside. Clearly we disagree on the abilities of Erin Henderson and Audie Cole. They cannot be released (or at the very least returned to low level backup roles) fast enough for me.

With the rest of your post...I'll go along and say agree to disagree as well. I respect that.

But regarding the part above.... I never said they were studs by any means. I'm actually not a fan of Henderson at all. However, why would you want Cole released?? He has done a very good job filling in at MLB, for a 7th round pick. You aren't going to find much more talent in the 7th round than that.

Also, you say a better GM would have provided better talent in late rounds....but I just showed you that entire list all the way back to 2007. You have guys like Robison, Griffen, Fusco, Sullivan, Wright, and Walsh....the average round between that group right there is the 5th!! All of those players are solid contributors on this team. Not sure why you're ignoring that and saying Spielman isn't finding talent in later rounds because he clearly is. You also have other average contributors that I listed that have been able to come in and make some plays at times as well.

You can't hit on every pick as a GM, nobody has ever even came close. I mean you really can't complain about those 6 guys I just listed above. Let's not forget about what he has brought in the last 2 years when it comes to the first round either (Kalil, Smith, Floyd, Rhodes, and Patterson). I think he really deserves 1-2 more years to fill these empty holes and get a new staff in here. After that, I think this team can be a legitimate contender, especially considering that the average age on this team is only 25.

[chicagopurple]

It looks to me like Spielman has drafted mediocre talent at best, and Frasier has proven himself unable to Coach these guys up to play at better then mediocre levels. Spielman has had more than enough time to impress me and he failed. Its NOT a job where you should get 10 yrs to prove yourself. He has had his time. Its time to move on. Making Ponder your "Reach in the Draft" play is grounds enough to say "bye-bye".

[mondry]

Realistically there's no real way to jump the gun on firing spielman and feeling good about it. He should get his chance to pick the coaches and align this team's ideal's together from the top on done. I don't believe he buys into the power running game offense nor the soft cover 2 shell defense. You don't draft Patterson to play glorified blocker and you don't draft Rhodes to play soft coverage.

Next year I think we see it come together and a deep playoff run isn't out of the question.

Spielmans found enough talent through out the draft, the problem is the scope of this rebuilding project. If he was drafting for the Pats right now and they had Rhodes and Patterson and Harrison smith back there they'd look pretty good. Problem for us is, for every two holes we fill, a new one opens up and it's going to be that way until we completely over turn this roster and the Winfields, Allens, K.will, and Greenway's all fall off the books and those contracts run their course.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Realistically there's no real way to jump the gun on firing spielman and feeling good about it. He should get his chance to pick the coaches and align this team's ideal's together from the top on done. I don't believe he buys into the power running game offense nor the soft cover 2 shell defense. You don't draft Patterson to play glorified blocker and you don't draft Rhodes to play soft coverage.

Next year I think we see it come together and a deep playoff run isn't out of the question.

Spielmans found enough talent through out the draft, the problem is the scope of this rebuilding project. If he was drafting for the Pats right now and they had Rhodes and Patterson and Harrison smith back there they'd look pretty good. Problem for us is, for every two holes we fill, a new one opens up and it's going to be that way until we completely over turn this roster and the Winfields, Allens, K.will, and Greenway's all fall off the books and those contracts run their course.

I agree 100%

[CalVike]

Former Vikings beat writer Don Banks of SI.com thinks Spielman will return.

http://m.si.com/3724379/black-monday-pr ... /5ccff70e/

On the general manager front, there is every indication that Rick Spielman is secure and retains the confidence of owner Zygi Wilf. While a coaching search looks likely, the front office is expected to remain status quo.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Pondering Her Percy]

Former Vikings beat writer Don Banks of SI.com thinks Spielman will return.

http://m.si.com/3724379/black-monday-pr ... /5ccff70e/

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes I've seen that as well. He's been considered safe for a few weeks now

[Mothman]

The fact that when and why Audie Cole actually got into the starting lineup has actually been a source of controversy for weeks says just about all that needs to be said about the talent level of the defense.

Okay, I know that's simplifying things but it's amusing and seriously, that particular controiversy underlines just how much the Vikings still need to upgrade their talent. I understand that Spielman faced a huge rebuilding project when he took over but 3 years after Childress was fired, the state of that project looks questionable. If we're supposed to extend Spielman the benefit of the doubt and be patient as he endeavors to rebuild the team, why shouldn't Frazier receive that same patience? I know the answers to that. They've been posted here dozens of times but it seems somewhat contradictory to say we need to be patient as Spielman undertakes the huge effort to rebuild the team while simultaneously blasting Frazier because has been unable to win consistently with the same roster we're supposed to patiently watch Spielman build. Has Spielman built a team that can win consistently or not?

[mansquatch]

So let’s look at the Spielman Tenure:

2011:
Draft Picks:
Ponder, QB , RND 1: Bust
Rudolph TE, RND 2: Solid Contributor / Pro Bowl Alternate
Ballard DT, RND 4: Quit the team
A bunch of late round guys, most notable Mistral Raymond and Brandon Fusco
Big Free Agency Moves were essentially Charlie Johnson and Donovan McNabb

2012:
Draft Picks:
Kalil OT RND 1: Solid Player
Smith S RND 1: Strong Player
Josh Robinson CB RND 3: Jury is still out, but not looking good
Jarius Wright WR RND 4: Role Players, decent #3 guy, Deep Threat
Rhett Ellison TE/FB RND 4: Jury is still out
Greg Childs WR RND 4: Injured entire career so far
Blanton CB RND 5: Depth Guy / ST
Walsh K RND 6: Pro Bowl Kicker, strong contributor
Cole LB RND 7: Looks like a potential Starter at MLB
Guyton DE RND 7: ????
Big Free Agency moves were Jerome Simpson, John Carlson, and Jerome Felton

2013:
Draft Picks:
Floyd DT RND 1: Jury is still out
Rhodes CD RND 1: Potential Stud
Patterson WR RND 1: Elite Returner, potential stud WR
Hodges LB RND 4: Jury is out
Locke P RND 5: Solid Contributor
Baca G RND 6: Looks like potential starter to replace Johnson next season?
Mauti LB RND 7: ST, possible starter someday?
2 other guys in RND 7 who are not on the team
Big Free Agency moves: Greg Jennings, Harvin Trade, Winfield Release, Matt Cassell

Phew…

A few things jump out at me. In terms of Free Agency the only significant move on defense since Spielman took over was the release of Winfield. In that same time frame they have added SEVEN players on Offense via Free Agency: (Jennings, Felton, Simpson, Carlson, Cassell, McNabb, and Johnson.) McNabb is thankfully no longer with us. In terms of Day 1 draft picks, Spielman has had 7 picks, of which 3 were on defense. (Smith, Rhodes, Floyd.) It is worth noting that two of those three were last year and thus are still in the rookie learning phase. Smith is an obvious stud at Safety. So in tally of elite prospects Spielman has added 10 players to the offense via Drafting (4) and Free Agency (6) while only adding 3 (draft) to the defense.

I think talent wise most of these players have been decent with the sole exception of Ponder. I’ll take a GM who can hit everywhere like that as I think the QB thing is more luck than anything in the NFL. I know opinions vary on this topic...

So to me the question on Spielman comes down to effectiveness in adding talent. In addressing that I think we should look at where we were in 2011. Is there anyone who would argue that the offense was in better shape going into 2011 than the defense? We had no offensive line aside from Sullivan and a washing out Loadholt. FB was Tahi. (UGH) QB was a joke. (still is.) WR was a moody Harvin and ???, and TE was nobody. Since that time this unit has become a strength for the team at all positions aside from QB. Given the investments Spielman has made here, this is what we should expect. I would say Slick Rick has done a decent job filling out this group other than the QB situation. We've also found some late round goodies in the form of Jarius Wright and Fusco. Ellison and Baca may also prove to be good role players. Let's not forget Felton.

Given the disparity of additions to the offense vs. the defense the current defensive talent situation isn’t a surprise. I suspect we’ll see more attention paid to this side of the ball this offseason as quite literally, the offense only needs a QB.

[Mothman]

Mansquatch, thanks for that breakdown and your take on things. My take on the draft picks is similar to yours. After round 4, I'll refer to players that didn't make it as misses rather than busts since it gets more difficult to find contributors in the later rounds.

2011:
Ponder, QB , RND 1: Bust
Rudolph, TE, RND 2: Solid
Ballard, DT, RND 4: Bust, quit the team
B. Burton, CB, RND 5: Miss, No longer on NFL roster
Love, OT, RND 6: MIss, on Jaguars practice squad
Raymond, CB, RND 6: Depth player at best
Fusco, G, RND 6: Solid starter in his 3rd year
Homan, LB RND 6: Miss, No longer on NFL roster
Reed, DL, RND 7: MIss, on Jaguars practice squad
S. Burton, WR, RND 7: MIss, on Jaguars IR list

Apparently, this was a good draft to provide questionable depth for the Jaguars. ;( Seriously, this has turned out to be a pretty poor draft for the Vikings. Spielman had 10 picks and even though many of them were late rounders, out of the 10 players he chose, I doubt more than 3 of them will be Vikings next year. I can't imagine more of them two of them (Rudolph and Fusco) going into next season as starters.

2012:
Kalil, OT, RND 1: Solid Player
Smith, S, RND 1: Strong Player
Robinson, CB, RND 3: Jury is out
Wright, WR, RND 4: Solid depth
Ellison, TE/FB RND 4: Jury is out, unlikely to provide more than depth
Greg Childs, WR, RND 4: Injured
Blanton, CB, RND 5: Jury is out, unlikely to provide more than depth
Walsh, K, RND 6: Pro Bowl Kicker
Cole, LB, RND 7: Jury is out, may be starter or just solid depth
Guyton, DE, RND 7: Miss, no longer in NFL

This draft certainly looks better than 2011 so far. The Vikes should have at least 3 starters for years out of this group: Kalil, Smith and Walsh. Wright is a good backup WR. I doubt Childs will ever contribute much but I think the jury is out on the rest, with the exception of Guyton.

2013:
Floyd, DT, RND 1: Jury is out
Rhodes, CB, RND 1: Jury is out but looked very good in the last few weeks leading up to his injury
Patterson, WR, RND 1: Elite Returner, encouraging as a receiver
Hodges, LB, RND 4: Jury is out
Locke, P, RND 5: Solid
Baca, G, RND 6: Jury is out
Mauti, LB, RND 7: Jury is out
Bond, G, RND 7: Miss, released and signed with Carolina
Dawkins, DT, RND 7: Miss, released, signed and released by Dallas, currently on TB

As you can see, I think the jury has to be considered out on most of this draft. early returns on Patterson and Rhodes look very encouraging. Floyd has been playing better. Locke has been solid.

That's 29 picks in 3 years. I count 9 players who seem likely to be starting when the season opens next year (Rudolph, Fusco, Kalil, Smith, Walsh, Floyd, Patterson, Rhodes, and Locke) and a few more who could end up starting as well (Robinson, Cole, etc.). It will depend on what players get added during the offseason and who is coaching the team.

Spielman clearly wants to lean on the draft as his primary team-building tool. Has he done well enough in the draft over these last 3 years? We probably need another season to get a better read on that but in looking at the lists above, I can't say I'm feeling all that encouraged.

[Mothman]

A few things jump out at me. In terms of Free Agency the only significant move on defense since Spielman took over was the release of Winfield. In that same time frame they have added SEVEN players on Offense via Free Agency: (Jennings, Felton, Simpson, Carlson, Cassell, McNabb, and Johnson.) McNabb is thankfully no longer with us. In terms of Day 1 draft picks, Spielman has had 7 picks, of which 3 were on defense. (Smith, Rhodes, Floyd.) It is worth noting that two of those three were last year and thus are still in the rookie learning phase. Smith is an obvious stud at Safety. So in tally of elite prospects Spielman has added 10 players to the offense via Drafting (4) and Free Agency (6) while only adding 3 (draft) to the defense

I apologize. I'm a little confused. I only count 6 Day 1 draft picks (Ponder, Kalil, Smith, Floyd, Rhodes, Patterson), not 7. More importantly,just so we know who you're talking about, how are you defining "elite prospect" above? When you say Spielman has added 10 elite prospects to the offense via the draft and free agency, are you referring to Ponder, Rudolph, Kalil and Patterson as the picks and to the offensive free agents you listed in the paragraph above, minus McNabb?

I think talent wise most of these players have been decent with the sole exception of Ponder. I’ll take a GM who can hit everywhere like that as I think the QB thing is more luck than anything in the NFL. I know opinions vary on this topic...

They definitely vary. I'd argue that Carlson, Simpson and Johnson have been no better at their respective positions than Ponder has been at QB. I'm not sure how many hits that leaves. It certainly didn't help the team that this year several of the players who would probably be on that list of hits either missed significant stretches of playing time (Rudolph, Smith) or took a big step back in the overall quality of their performance (Kalil). Hopefully, in the future all 3 will be able to stay healthy and/or play at a higher level.

So to me the question on Spielman comes down to effectiveness in adding talent. In addressing that I think we should look at where we were in 2011. Is there anyone who would argue that the offense was in better shape going into 2011 than the defense? We had no offensive line aside from Sullivan and a washing out Loadholt. FB was Tahi. (UGH) QB was a joke. (still is.) WR was a moody Harvin and ???, and TE was nobody. Since that time this unit has become a strength for the team at all positions aside from QB.

Again I have to disagree. I dont think the offensive line can in any way be considered a strength. They remain unreliable in pass protection and inconsistent when it comes to paving the way for the RBs.

Given the disparity of additions to the offense vs. the defense the current defensive talent situation isn’t a surprise. I suspect we’ll see more attention paid to this side of the ball this offseason as quite literally, the offense only needs a QB.

As you can tell from my comment above, I think it needs more than that but admittedly, a really good QB alone would probably make it a more effective unit.

I think two areas that need to be examined more closely are Spielman's choice of free agents and his handling of the defense. As you pointed out, the offense has been a bigger focus thus far in terms of rebuilding but the team is now in a situation where they need to significantly rebuild the defense. They're also in a situation where the table is set to make sweeping changes on that side of the ball, due to the number of players whose contracts will be expiring. This offseason should tell us a lot about his plan for the defense. There are quite a few young defensive players on the roster. To what degree will Spielman and whoever is coaching lean on them to be the future of that unit and to what degree will they try to upgrade the talent on that side of the ball?

In terms of free agency, I think the big question regarding the last 3 seasons is were the players signed, and re-signed, the best choices? How much of an opportunity to improve the team has potentially been missed in that department? Are Spielman and the coaching staff making good choices in terms of who to keep, who to cut and replace, etc.? Should players like Erin Henderson, Marvin Mitchell, etc. ever have been re-signed? Should the Vikings have kept Jared Allen and his massive salary in this final year of his contract or should they have released him or negotiated a new deal that would reduce his cap hit but extend him?

There probably aren't easy or definitive answers to some of those questions but I have a feeling that these areas, the management of the roster and the evaluation of talent on the team and available around the league may be issues. Spielman's certainly not incompetent in these areas but is he good enough? I wish I knew.

[mondry]

I think talent wise most of these players have been decent with the sole exception of Ponder. I’ll take a GM who can hit everywhere like that as I think the QB thing is more luck than anything in the NFL. I know opinions vary on this topic...

So to me the question on Spielman comes down to effectiveness in adding talent. In addressing that I think we should look at where we were in 2011. Is there anyone who would argue that the offense was in better shape going into 2011 than the defense? We had no offensive line aside from Sullivan and a washing out Loadholt. FB was Tahi. (UGH) QB was a joke. (still is.) WR was a moody Harvin and ???, and TE was nobody. Since that time this unit has become a strength for the team at all positions aside from QB. Given the investments Spielman has made here, this is what we should expect. I would say Slick Rick has done a decent job filling out this group other than the QB situation. We've also found some late round goodies in the form of Jarius Wright and Fusco. Ellison and Baca may also prove to be good role players. Let's not forget Felton.

Given the disparity of additions to the offense vs. the defense the current defensive talent situation isn’t a surprise. I suspect we’ll see more attention paid to this side of the ball this offseason as quite literally, the offense only needs a QB.

Another person that get's it, welcome aboard! Good post, well said, and all that!

2011 free agency is a good indicator of where this team was at cap space wise and how handcuffed we were by the cap. Mckinnie showed up well over weight forcing us to get Johnson and Frazier forced us to trade for Mcnabb. Draft wise the rebuild had started but cap space wise we were still locked into a lot of bad, over paid players.

You're right though, a lot of emphasis has been put on the offense and as of right now, even with ponder, freeman, cassel that offense is ranked 12th in scoring and has been in the top 10 for most of the year. I'm sure most people are willing to say our QB situation blows pretty bad so to be 12th or top 10 earlier on is really a testament to how much talent is on this offense to get there with absolutely horrible QB play.

This off season we'll take another crack at QB and I'm sure an impressive amount of resources will go towards improving the defense and if Spielman can do what he did for the offense on the defense the sky's the limit.

[mansquatch]

Jim, my big question whenever we go down this road is this: What is the average "hit rate" on draft picks in the NFL?

Teams have 55 man rosters plus what 5 practice squad members? If you are picking 8-10 guys a cycle that would imply the roster turns over completely every 6 years. We know that is not always the case. Some guys play for a decade or more. Others never make it out of training camp. So again, the question becomes "what is a good hit rate?" It is obviously less than 100%. Is it 90%? 80%? 50%?

I've never seen this answered and I've never attempted to answer it, so I'm not criticizing, just pointing out that any analysis of success/failure is not really based on anything more than "gut" when it comes to this topic.

IMO, Spielman has a strong record in Rounds 1 and 2. IMO, that really matters as that is where you get the best prospects. Picks like Troy Williamson/ Demetrius Underwood are devastating. We've also seen some success in mid-rounds as well as some in the late rounds. IMO this is a positive. The obvious black mark is the Ponder pick. On that one I give Spielman a pass simply because I think there were two factors at play: 1.) They HAD to take a QB due to Joe Webb being the only QB on the roster at the time. (Thank you Chilly...) 2.) QB is a luck proposition in the NFL IMO.

I agree that 2011 is not looking great, but again you kind of have to ask, as compared to what? Just for fun I looked at Green Bay's 2011 Draft. The first round pick was OT Derrick Sherrod who isn't turning any heads and the 2nd round picks wa the oft injured but explosive Randall Cobb. THe rest of the picks I do not recognize which probably means they were duds.

I also looked at 2011 Chicago. Only pick I recognize is Gabe Carimi and I do not think he is even playing in Chicago anymore. Detroit had Nick Fairly who is a stud. Titus Young was the 2nd rounder, ie a bust. Micheal LEshoure is in there for some depth. Other guys are gone. So maybe two players from that draft.

The vaunted Patriots only have 2 from this draft as well. (That I recognize) Nate Solder and Ryan Mallett.

So by far not a complete comparison, but the average there is less than two guys out of all the draft picks made in 2011 for those teams. Maybe it was a bad draft year overall or maybe that is typical within the league? I do not know the answer, but the above would seem to indicate that if Spielman did bad that year then he at least was in good company. Most of those teams had fewer picks than the Vikins and Packers, so the hit rate would imply a success value of somewhere in the 20% to 40% range. Also all the hits were in the top 3 rounds.

12 is looking quite good. Early returns on 13 are promising from the top 3. Again, what is typical in the league? People always bash the player eval and draft picks, but we never see a comparison to justify the criticism (or praise...).

I think the bigger takeaway is the fact that 10 starter quality guys were added to offense while only 3 were added to defense in a 3 year span. If anything this tells us why hthe defense is lagging the offense in the rebuild. My guess is that aside from QB, we should see some help acquired defensively in the coming off season.

[mansquatch]

Jim, I counted the 2nd round (Rudolph) as Day 1. My mistake. I do consider the 2nd round to be a good place to find talent though. (most years)