I maintain that it's conditional, based on the talent in each draft. Consequently, I don't think it makes any sense to cheer for the pick. It make more sense to cheer for the player so even though I disagreed with the "suck for Luck" talk in 2011, I understood it because he was a rare talent, although I find it laughable that Mackey ranked him in the "HOF discussion" category. It's way too early for that!Texas Vike wrote:I saw this too, and came hear to post it. It substantiates what some of us have been expressing in this and other threads: of course there are no guarantees anywhere in the draft, but your percentages go up the higher you pick.
Anyway, my point is that the percentages matter much, much less than the actual individuals available. Mackey is trying to justify the "root to lose" point of view and to some extent, he's skewed his rankings accordingly, although there's certainly merit in the point he's making.
As you said, we're looking for a franchise QB--a centerpiece of the organization, not a "serviceable or very good" QB. The Vikes have had those over the years. Consequently, I'd say we can throw out most of the QBs Mackey ranked in the latter category and focus on those he ranked in the HOF discussion. As I said, I don't think Luck belongs there yet but even if we stick with Mackey's rankings, that leaves us with the following:
1st QB taken: 3
2nd QB taken: 2
3rd QB taken: 1
4th QB taken: 0
QBs taken after the 4th round aren't even considered but they should be, especially since we know one of them is a lock for the Hall of Fame.
Anyway, the real question is whether that centerpiece, franchise QB you're talking about is even in this draft. Quite a few drafts don't even produce one. If that centerpiece player IS in this draft, who is he and which pick will be necessary to get him? I contend that once you get down to the actual nuts and bolts of evaluating and drafting talent, you might as well throw the odds out the window because next spring, the Vikes won't be playing the odds over the course of the Manning era, they'll be drafting from the particular selection of talent in the 2014 draft. Based on everything I've seen and read, it sure doesn't look to me like there's a QB in that draft who is clearly more likely than all of the others to succeed in the NFL. There's certainly no consensus about it around here and I don't buy that a player like Bridgewater has a significantly higher chance to succeed as an HOF quarterback in the NFL than a player like Manziel.
One more thing to consider: to what extent does the situation a QB finds himself in when he gets to the NFL shape and determine his career as a pro? I think the individual has more to do with it than any other factors but those factors do make a difference. Would Aaron Rodgers be the success story he is today if he'd been drafted by the Raiders in 2005 and pressed into action immediately?