Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

[Mothman]

Jim I agree that yardage in of itself is a bad measuring stick of a QB, vs what you said, the whole passing offense.

However, I do think that it is one of many useful meausres of Ponder's overall performance. IMO, 150 yards a game is hardly a bad benchmark to use as a general indicator. Getting over that tells us things are improving. Now why that is a case is another quesiton and that is where we can get into specifics.

I agree that consistently getting over a benchmark like that would tell us the passing game is improving. I just think the QB's performance and improvement have to be assessed on how he handles the things he can control.

I guess I look at as more of a case where a certain number of things need to be happening at a certain competitive level to achieve 150 yards. If those things are happening given the VIkings style of offense, then I think more or less, things are on the up and up.

Now yes, other stats matter too, epsecially turnovers, But i don't think rejectiing the yardage is entirely warranted. It just needs to be understood that yards represent the whole of the passing offense and not just the QB.

Exactly.

Jim

[Skoltastic_Voyage]

See ask yourselves something about that yardage and what you're saying about still winning those games... That low yardage was the result of a lot of field goals... not a terrible thing to a point (better than a punt) but if he tacks on a few td's instead the yardage adds up to about what we're talking 200+ for the scoring drives we had (instead of kicking from >40).

Yardage isn't the end all of be all I mean FFS did you guys what the Broncos with Tebow? I did and let me tell you defense was the word of the day. There are many ways to win games but the Vikings need the ability to put up points (Ponders performance against the Packers rnd2) if we want a deep playoff run (SB baby).

[PurpleJarl]

I've been hearing a few commenting about the poor protection. Is this really the case? I may be way off base but I thought the OL had its best year since, well, maybe since Brad Johnson was the QB? I have no way to prove this of course. Looking through the threads, the complaints about the OL were pretty slim compared to previous years. They were ranked 11th in sacks allowed and 5th in QB hits.

Its been talked about several times in different threads that a slump in the Oline coincided with a couple or more of Ponders poor games. Generally what the "Ponder camp" means is just, Ponder didn't come out and decide to blow, the games where his stats were terrible had a mixture of poor decisions from him, poor blitz pick up from the Oline and the RB, a couple of drops from WR that shouldn't have been (anecdotally, I recall one game last year were their were two monster passes that were in and out of wide receivers hands his total yardage for that game would have been 80ish more and a TD to boot but no one blamed the WRs after that one) as well as poor play calling. None of this excuses poor play its simply frustrating looking at stat lines 6-8 months later and ASSUMING the issues that lead to the poor play.

To put it another way. No one says its APs fault for not getting the rushing record; our oline just needed one more block, fewer holding calls, more rushing plays early in the year. But when it comes to Ponder (admittedly, its gotten much better recently) the buck starts and stops with him. period, NO EXCUSES

[VikingLord]

You know, the benchmark question is an interesting one, not because it is arbitrary, but because it implies there is some relationship between yards thrown for and the QB's performance.

I honestly don't know if there is a correlation there, but I would expect a fairly low correlation, at least between yards thrown versus games won.

On the other hand, efficiency should show a higher correlation between success and failure (e.g. number of chances versus number of successful executions of those chances). Then the question is what chances matter? What actually correlates with success for a QB?

I think the QBR tries to quantify that and, IIRC, Ponder's QBR was the 2nd highest in the league over the final 4 games, and the best in the NFL on 3rd downs over that stretch.

The other thing I like about systems like QBR is they allow relative comparison, not just a point-in-time stat specific to a given QB, but a comparative look at all QB's for a given week. That's a better measure of the QB's play relative to his peers than just a stat like 150 yards passing. 150 yards passing by itself doesn't say much. Maybe that is worse than most QB's in a given week, maybe it's better. Maybe against the league's best pass defense that is outstanding compared to the average pass defense in the league.

As far as Ponder goes, I'm going to try to focus more on his efficiency this upcoming season. Just does he make plays when plays are there to be made? Is he avoiding the dumb mistakes that cost the team? Does he recognize what he has to do to be successful? I keep thinking about Brad Johnson when I think about Ponder. Johnson was a great example of a guy who was efficient, but not spectacular. He just moved the offense and made plays. That is exactly the sort of QB that can take a talented team far, and if Ponder can develop into that sort of QB, anything above and beyond he can do will be gravy.

I personally will be looking for Ponder's QBR to remain consistent and above average. That will be more my measuring stick as to his progress in addition to what my eyes tell me when he plays.

[mondry]

Its been talked about several times in different threads that a slump in the Oline coincided with a couple or more of Ponders poor games. Generally what the "Ponder camp" means is just, Ponder didn't come out and decide to blow, the games were his stats were terrible had a mixture of poor decisions from him, poor blitz pick up from the Oline and the RB, a couple of drops from WR that shouldn't have been (anecdotally, I recall one game last year were their were two monster passes that were in and out of wide receivers hands his total yardage for that game would have been 80ish more and a TD to boot but no one blamed the WRs after that one) as well as poor play calling. None of this excuses poor play its simply frustrating looking at stat lines 6-8 months later and ASSUMING the issues that lead to the poor play.

To put it another way. No one says its APs fault for not getting the rushing record, our oline just needed one more block, fewer holding calls, more rushing plays early in the year. But when it comes to Ponder (admittedly, its gotten much better recently) the buck starts and stops with him. period, NO EXCUSES

Pretty much, I'd even say at one point after the first few games, the passing offense in it's entirety deserved plenty of blame. Ponder played poorly and made some bad decisions, the play calling was questionable and defenses figured out musgrave's short passing game and routinely blitzed, the Offensive line struggled to deal with the blitzes, and the WR's failed to get separation and make an impact.

Luckily all four facets of the passing game seemed to click and they figured some things out. From then on the O-line dominated in run blocking and was above average to strong in pass protection. The guards still gave up a decent amount of pressure but the tackles and center all played well for the most part. That should continue on into the 2013 season and hopefully we get better play out of the guards. They've given Fusco every chance to get experience and develop and I don't see Geoff Schwartz anywhere so hopefully he can take a big step forward and maybe Jeff Baca will eventually replace Charlie Johnson. Before everyone freaks out about a 6th round pick, sure Baca was 196 overall but Charlie Johnson was drafted in the 6th round 199 overall.

[mansquatch]

Schwartz is playing for KC now IIRC.

I agree though, they just need to put it togehter. They've got guys on the roster now that can go deep, that can create mismatches, and the short passing threat in Patterson. No reason they shouldn't be able to put a defense on it's heals.

I'm actually more interested in what happens on Defense. If Floyd and Rhodes are studs, we could see our D become quite potent, it was close last year.

[HardcoreVikesFan]

Schwartz is playing for KC now IIRC.

I know there is no sense in beating a dead horse, but I will do it anyway. This past season, I was pushing for us to start Geoff Schwartz. Every time he played, our blocking was increased a notch. If anyone doubts me, go watch Adrian's run against Green Bay. Geoff perfected the kick out block that helped spring Adrian lose. Unfortunately, we let him walk.

Fusco was absolutely awful this past season. Quite honestly, I don't know what the coaching staff sees in him. Maybe he can get it this year, but I don't know.

[losperros]

Sorry, shred wasn't really what i meant . It sounded nice, what I meant to imply was his yards per pass should be alot higher due to safeties sitting in the box. Either way there is no reason whatsoever with that much attention in the 5 yard area , that he shouldnt have well over 200 yards a game. Now, not last year.

I somewhat agree with this. However, I also agree with those that look at the passing game as an entire unit. If the Vikings coaching utilizes Ponder as a game manager only, then we're back to the days of conservative Chili Ball, which I can't stand. Ponder must also be surrounded with good weapons and I'm hoping the Vikings have done that, what with Adrian Peterson and an improved WR corps. It also means the OL has got to pass protect better. I still say the OL was inconsistent on that level last season.

That said, I definitely agree with you that it also means Ponder has to be more consistent, make better reads and throws, and play at a higher level. I believe a QB must be a playmaker. Ponder has been one on occasion but it's been hit and miss too often. They need him to be a positive difference maker in every game.

Personally, I believe Frazier and his staff do want more variety from their offense, which should mean greater output by the passing game. And I think they expect more from Ponder this year. If Ponder regresses in his overall performance, then I think at the very least the Vikings will draft another QB next year.

[Just Me]

Can I throw in a Ponder stat of my own?

In the most important game of the season, the playoff game. The Viking LOST without Christian Ponder. AD was there, Jared Allen was there, Antoine Winfield was there, you name it. Yes, I understand the coaches didn't let Joe Webb play his style. If this thread is about Ponder's stats, you can't leave out this important one.

It is an interesting point. But...the sample size is incredibly small (1 game). FWIW I think that IS significant, but I can also conclude that every game I attended in person (Bears @ Vikings) this year resulted in a Viking win so to give us the best chance at home, I need to be there. Anyone for sending me their season tickets? (It's for the good of the team!)

[King James]

Comparing Ponder's first two years to the other NFC QB's two years..

Christian Ponder
Year 1- 11 GP 13 TD 13 INT 5 FL
Year 2- 16 GP 18 TD 12 INT 5 FL

Matthew Stafford
Year 1- 10 GP 13TD 20 INT 4 FL
Year 2- 3 GP 6TD 1 INT 1 FL

Aaron Rogers
Year 1- 5 GP 0 TD 1 INT 2 FL
Year 2- 3 GP 0 TD 0 INT 1 FL

Jay Cutler
Year 1- 5 GP 9 TD 5 INT 3 FL
Year 2- 16GP 20 TD 14 INT 4 FL


As you can see, none of these guys really had the best years. But look at Rodgers, Cutler, and Stafford now. The problem with most fans, including myself, when we draft a QB we expect him to automatically fix the team the very first snap. You have those type of QBs but the average NFL QB will take a while before he gets good. Most QBs dont reach their prime until they get in their 30's. Not saying that it will take Ponder that long but Ponder seems to be one of those players who will progress season after season. The challenge is, if the team is patient enough to work with Ponder.

[PacificNorseWest]

I think there's that added pressure coming from fans because of where Ponder was taken in the draft. It was clearly a reach so people tend to be inpatient with the process and want results ASAP.

[Purple bruise]

Comparing Ponder's first two years to the other NFC QB's two years..

Christian Ponder
Year 1- 11 GP 13 TD 13 INT 5 FL
Year 2- 16 GP 18 TD 12 INT 5 FL

Matthew Stafford
Year 1- 10 GP 13TD 20 INT 4 FL
Year 2- 3 GP 6TD 1 INT 1 FL

Aaron Rogers
Year 1- 5 GP 0 TD 1 INT 2 FL
Year 2- 3 GP 0 TD 0 INT 1 FL

Jay Cutler
Year 1- 5 GP 9 TD 5 INT 3 FL
Year 2- 16GP 20 TD 14 INT 4 FL


As you can see, none of these guys really had the best years. But look at Rodgers, Cutler, and Stafford now. The problem with most fans, including myself, when we draft a QB we expect him to automatically fix the team the very first snap. You have those type of QBs but the average NFL QB will take a while before he gets good. Most QBs dont reach their prime until they get in their 30's. Not saying that it will take Ponder that long but Ponder seems to be one of those players who will progress season after season. The challenge is, if the team is patient enough to work with Ponder.

Agree and also remember that Ponder had NO training camp, was thrown in to the fray after the McNabb "joke/choke", got hurt with a nagging hip pointer and besides Harvin his receivers and line (pass blocking) pretty much sucked.
So yeah these fans that want to give him the bum's rush should at least let him have this year to show lots of improvement. I will be one of the first to suggest trying Cassel or what ever other option that might present itself if he fails this year.

[Reignman]

Agree and also remember that Ponder had NO training camp, was thrown in to the fray after the McNabb "joke/choke", got hurt with a nagging hip pointer and besides Harvin his receivers and line (pass blocking) pretty much sucked. So yeah these fans that want to give him the bum's rush should at least let him have this year to show lots of improvement. I will be one of the first to suggest trying Cassel or what ever other option that might present itself if he fails this year.

Ha, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton didn't have a training camp in 2011 either and yet they did alright. Heck Ponder wasn't even that much better than Blaine Gabbert that year.

[Purple bruise]

Ha, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton didn't have a training camp in 2011 either and yet they did alright. Heck Ponder wasn't even that much better than Blaine Gabbert that year.

I get it, you are one of the many Ponder haters that will be served up a whole lot of crow

[Mothman]

I really hope Christian Ponder has an outstanding year. The snarky comments directed at him are just relentless. I saw this in a Yahoo piece about the new Vikings stadium design:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutd ... 26320.html

The venue will be configurable for all sorts of events, including concerts, baseball and NCAA basketball, just in case. And there promises to be a manicured plaza that will give Vikings fans something pretty to stare at if Christian Ponder throws the team out of the postseason.

That's just obnoxious, especially since Ponder helped throw them into the postseason last year.

For his sake, and especially for the sake of the team, it would sure be nice to see him put together a great 2013 season.