On The Clock: Adrian Peterson

[dead_poet]

Mel Kiper, Chris Mortensen and Trent Dilfer made several important points in this video discussion of Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson:

Peterson has said his goal is to run for 2,500 yards in 2013, and we know better than to doubt his ambitions. But as the guys implied, history suggests he won't eclipse 2,000 yards this season. Quite simply, no 2,000-yard rusher has ever repeated the feat. Here is the full list, courtesy pro-football-reference.com.

The Vikings need to balance out their offense in a way that would inhibit a 2,000-yard season. Said Dilfer: "I think he can [do it]. I don't think it's best for the Vikings if he has the same type of season." Winning is not about rushing yards, Dilfer argued. It's about scoring points. He added: "You throw the ball into the end zone [to score points]. That's how you win in the National Football League." The Vikings ranked No. 25 in the NFL last season with 18 touchdown passes.

Kiper suggests the best possible fit for the Vikings is trading up to draft West Virginia slot man Tavon Austin. With two first-round draft picks at No. 23 and No. 25, they have the ability to do it.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... n-peterson

[Mothman]

Mel Kiper, Chris Mortensen and Trent Dilfer made several important points in this video discussion of Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... n-peterson

Oy vey...

I think Kiper's insane if he's suggesting the best possible move for the Vikes would be to package their two first round picks to trade up and get Austin. It's not clear to me from Siefert's comments if Kiper is actually suggesting the Vikes spend their two first rounders that way but I think that price would be much too steep.

Dilfer's right that the Vikings need to balance their offense and get more from their passing game but variations on the phrase "You throw the ball into the end zone [to score points]" are the new "defense wins championships". The top scoring team in the league had 25 rushing TDs last season! They had even more passing TDs but they scored 150 points on the ground.

The Vikings may have ranked 25th in passing TDs but they ranked considerably higher in scoring and only 8 teams won more regular season games. That said, I do understand Dilfer's point that the Vikings will ultimately be better off if their passing game is far more productive and that could inhibit AD's attempt to rush for more yards than he did in 2012.

[Purple bruise]

Oy vey...

I think Kiper's insane if he's suggesting the best possible move for the Vikes would be to package their two first round picks to trade up and get Austin. It's not clear to me from Siefert's comments if Kiper is actually suggesting the Vikes spend their two first rounders that way but I think that price would be much too steep.

Dilfer's right that the Vikings need to balance their offense and get more from their passing game but variations on the phrase "You throw the ball into the end zone [to score points]" are the new "defense wins championships". The top scoring team in the league had 25 rushing TDs last season! They had even more passing TDs but they scored 150 points on the ground.

The Vikings may have ranked 25th in passing TDs but they ranked considerably higher in scoring and only 8 teams won more regular season games. That said, I do understand Dilfer's point that the Vikings will ultimately be better off if their passing game is far more productive and that could inhibit AD's attempt to rush for more yards than he did in 2012.

I think Dilfer is a joke but hopefully he was suggesting trading up to get Austin by trading one 1st rd. pick and maybe a 3rd or 4th which I would be fine with. I am on the Austin Band Wagon and would love it if the Vike's drafted him

[VikingLord]

The Vikings may have ranked 25th in passing TDs but they ranked considerably higher in scoring and only 8 teams won more regular season games. That said, I do understand Dilfer's point that the Vikings will ultimately be better off if their passing game is far more productive and that could inhibit AD's attempt to rush for more yards than he did in 2012.

"Could" is the key word.

The big rushing totals seem to come more from more long-gainers than just a lot of rushes, and it seems entirely possible that if the Vikings throw the ball better, the number of times AD sees favorable looks from defenses that increase his chances of busting longer runs would increase rather than decrease. I could see a scenario where AD touches the ball less and he still rushes for more total yards due to that.

I agree with you that moving up to draft Austin or really anyone save maybe Chance Warmack or Johnathan Cooper is not a great move. The only reason I list the two guards in trade-up scenarios is because I think both are exceptional and I know Frazier's offense needs a great offensive line to work well. And when it comes to Ponder's development, giving him better protection is probably as important as giving him another weapon to throw to.

[saint33]

"Could" is the key word.

The big rushing totals seem to come more from more long-gainers than just a lot of rushes, and it seems entirely possible that if the Vikings throw the ball better, the number of times AD sees favorable looks from defenses that increase his chances of busting longer runs would increase rather than decrease. I could see a scenario where AD touches the ball less and he still rushes for more total yards due to that.

I agree with you that moving up to draft Austin or really anyone save maybe Chance Warmack or Johnathan Cooper is not a great move. The only reason I list the two guards in trade-up scenarios is because I think both are exceptional and I know Frazier's offense needs a great offensive line to work well. And when it comes to Ponder's development, giving him better protection is probably as important as giving him another weapon to throw to.

I actually disagree with this. I think a more productive passing game will open up the running game, but I think it will actually result in just more consistent 10-15 yard gains and will actually reduce the number of long Td runs he has. With a successful passing game, defenses have to take players out of the box, leaving more down field tacklers for AP to beat. His big runs usually come from a stacked box, where he makes one or two guys miss and then has daylight with only a safety and possibly a corner to beat. The stacked boxes result in more negative and short gains, but everyone once in awhile they also result in a huge run.

If you actually look at his stats, AD's long runs have come mostly in years with worse QB play.

With the combo of TJack/Bollinger (and I think someone else, can't remember) in 07, Peterson had his second best 40+ yard gains in his career, despite the second lowest rushing attempts. In 08 with Gus his touches went up but his 40+ gains went down. Then in 09 and 2010 with Favre, it dropped even lower. 2011 is really the only year with poor QB play and only an average number long gains, but it was also the year in his career where he had the lowest number of carries. And then this year with the poor QB play, his 40+ gains skyrocketed.

[dead_poet]

Here are @AdrianPeterson's thoughts on being a member of the #Vikings. http://telly.com/DIUJFW

[Cliff]

Link seems broken.

[dead_poet]

Link seems broken.

Plays for me.

[HardcoreVikesFan]

Also doesn't hurt that he is making close to $100 million from the team!


I am joking. I love Adrian Peterson. I still can recall how excited I was when we drafted him in 2007. During his rookie year, I was fortunate enough to not only see his first NFL touchdown against Atlanta, I got to see his 296 yard day as well!

[Funkytown]

Beautiful words from AP--a man who gets it. Harvin, are you listening?

[mondry]

I cried and pouted cause I wanted Brady Quinn.

yeaah.... I probably wouldn't admit that.

[Raptorman]

yeaah.... I probably wouldn't admit that.

A man comfortable in his mind. Probably has a least one pink shirt that he wears.

I remember when we drafted Peterson, Packer fans said he would be lucky to finish 16 games in a year because he was an injury risk.