Ponder's QBR

[Reignman]

It's hard to trust the QBR when you see things like this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

Further controversy erupted when the Total QBR system gave the Denver Broncos' Tim Tebow a higher rating than the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers in their respective Week 5 contests in 2011. Noting that Rodgers completed 26 of 39 passes for 396 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, while Tebow completed four of 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown, and six rushes for 38 yards and a touchdown, in a loss to the San Diego Chargers, Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com wrote that he'll "continue to ignore ESPN’s Total QBR stat."[10] Rodgers himself was surprised: "I saw the [QBR stats] and chuckled to myself. I played a full game, [Tebow] played the half. He completed four passes, I completed 26. I think it incorporates QB runs as well ... The weighting of it doesn't make a whole lot of sense."[11] ESPN's Stats and Information Group explained that Tebow's higher rating was the result of him staging a partial comeback, taking no sacks, and having positive rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, among other factors.[12][13] However, Doug Farrar of Yahoo! Sports wrote that the QBR system lacks a minimum performance frequency floor that players must meet before they can be rated, and thus it essentially penalizes Rodgers because he played throughout the entire game, while rewarding Tebow because he came off the bench in the second half in an attempt to stage a comeback.

And let me get this straight, in week 15 they have Ponder with the 2nd highest QBR and Aaron Rodgers at 8th? Lets look at their stats from that week where they both won their game.

QBR 96.9, 17-24 (70.8%), 131 yards (5.46 AVG), 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushes for 16 yards, 1 rushing TD (83.9 rating) Ponder
QBR 83.0, 23-36 (63.9%), 291 yards (8.08 AVG), 3 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushes for 14 yards, 0 rushing TD (116.8 rating) Rodgers

And how bout week 17 where Ponder ranks 3rd and Rodgers 13th? Ponder did beat Rodgers with a lot of help from AD, but who really had a better game passing?

QBR 94.6, 16-28 (57.1%), 234 yards (8.36 AVG), 3 TD, 0 INT, 2 rushes for 16 yards, 0 rushing TD (120.2 rating) Ponder
QBR 70.8, 28-40 (70.0%), 365 yards (9.13 AVG), 4 TD, 0 INT, 0 rushes for 0 yards, 0 rushing TD (131.8 rating) Rodgers

Reality 2, QBR 0. But yeah both examples give me a lot confidence in the QBR. Neither are as bad as the Tebow comparison above, but Rodgers clearly played better in both games. It's like they're punishing Rodgers for not having a back like AD. I don't like the old QB rating either, but at least it seems more indicative of who had a better game passing.

And no I'm not hoping for Ponder to fail, I hope he proves me wrong and turns the corner this year because if he doesn't, we're back to square 1. Right now I just don't see it though. All I see is a lot of apologizing, excuse making, and coddling for a guy that hasn't proven anything. And no, Ponder didn't have a good 4 game stretch to end the season, AD did, and we won. Ponder did a good job of handing the ball to #28, getting out of the way, and not messing it up with stupid turnovers. Otherwise his stats were not good at all in those 4 games, except for the final game where the defense was 100% focused on stopping AD from breaking ED's record.

[Purple bruise]

It's hard to trust the QBR when you see things like this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating And let me get this straight, in week 15 they have Ponder with the 2nd highest QBR and Aaron Rodgers at 8th? Lets look at their stats from that week where they both won their game.

QBR 96.9, 17-24 (70.8%), 131 yards (5.46 AVG), 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushes for 16 yards, 1 rushing TD (83.9 rating) Ponder
QBR 83.0, 23-36 (63.9%), 291 yards (8.08 AVG), 3 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushes for 14 yards, 0 rushing TD (116.8 rating) Rodgers

And how bout week 17 where Ponder ranks 3rd and Rodgers 13th? Ponder did beat Rodgers with a lot of help from AD, but who really had a better game passing?

QBR 94.6, 16-28 (57.1%), 234 yards (8.36 AVG), 3 TD, 0 INT, 2 rushes for 16 yards, 0 rushing TD (120.2 rating) Ponder
QBR 70.8, 28-40 (70.0%), 365 yards (9.13 AVG), 4 TD, 0 INT, 0 rushes for 0 yards, 0 rushing TD (131.8 rating) Rodgers

Reality 2, QBR 0. But yeah both examples give me a lot confidence in the QBR. Neither are as bad as the Tebow comparison above, but Rodgers clearly played better in both games. It's like they're punishing Rodgers for not having a back like AD. I don't like the old QB rating either, but at least it seems more indicative of who had a better game passing.

And no I'm not hoping for Ponder to fail, I hope he proves me wrong and turns the corner this year because if he doesn't, we're back to square 1. Right now I just don't see it though. All I see is a lot of apologizing, excuse making, and coddling for a guy that hasn't proven anything. And no, Ponder didn't have a good 4 game stretch to end the season, AD did, and we won. Ponder did a good job of handing the ball to #28, getting out of the way, and not messing it up with stupid turnovers. Otherwise his stats were not good at all in those 4 games, except for the final game where the defense was 100% focused on stopping AD from breaking ED's record.

Yeah he was handing off to 28 but who were Rogers receivers and who was Ponder throwing to.

[The Breeze]

Yeah he was handing off to 28 but who were Rogers receivers and who was Ponder throwing to.

also something to consider in all of this is the fact that Rodgers really doesn't have a running game to rely on, so his stats will reflect that.

stats are stats. teams win championships. trent dilfer and brad johnson both have rings.

[Purple bruise]

also something to consider in all of this is the fact that Rodgers really doesn't have a running game to rely on, so his stats will reflect that.

stats are stats. teams win championships. trent dilfer and brad johnson both have rings.

And Doug Williams

[Mothman]

also something to consider in all of this is the fact that Rodgers really doesn't have a running game to rely on, so his stats will reflect that.

stats are stats. teams win championships. trent dilfer and brad johnson both have rings.

Exactly. I said from the OP that the QBR stat is subjective and that I didn't know how much information could be gleaned from it. Stats can only reveal so much about a QB's actual performance and while more subjective evaluations make an effort to provide a more accurate overall picture than hard numbers, in the end they're based on the observations of individuals and as we know, people can watch the same plays/games and come away with very different impressions.

[dead_poet]

Exactly. I said from the OP that the QBR stat is subjective and that I didn't know how much information could be gleaned from it. Stats can only reveal so much about a QB's actual performance and while more subjective evaluations make an effort to provide a more accurate overall picture than hard numbers, in the end they're based on the observations of individuals and as we know, people can watch the same plays/games and come away with very different impressions.

Wasn't there another version of the QBR developed in the last couple of years?

[Mothman]

Wasn't there another version of the QBR developed in the last couple of years?

I'm honestly not sure.

[dead_poet]

I'm honestly not sure.

Dam it Jim!

*goes back to give your T-shirt designs lower scores*

[Mothman]

Dam it Jim!

*goes back to give your T-shirt designs lower scores*

LOL! I'm sorry! I'm QBR-ignorant.

[dead_poet]

Here's the Erin Henderson MVP Quarterback Rating System:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... er-rating/

An interesting take that I think (while imperfect) might be slightly more accurate.

[Mothman]

Here's the Erin Henderson MVP Quarterback Rating System:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... er-rating/

An interesting take that I think (while imperfect) might be slightly more accurate.

"The Erin Henderson MVP Quarterback Rating System"...

That is an interesting take, although I don't like the emphasis they give to yards in the air, which I don't think is that relevant to overall QB performance. Of course, it's not irrelevant either...

As you said, it's an imperfect formula but I doubt there's a perfect formula so it's a good effort.

[mansquatch]

IMO the question is which QB helps his team win more. Comparing Rogers and Ponder isn't apples to apples even though they both play QB. For one thing, in every example Reignman cites Ponder has fewer attempts. It would be fair to criticize accuracy, (although in the week 15 example he was higher than Rogers) but then you would need to account for drops which are not the QB's fault and throwaways, which are not a negative play IMO.

Digging deeper though, both players are on very different offenses. Rogers IS the GB offense vs. in MN we have some guy who wears #28. The point is, I would argue that Ponder's yardage is not nearly as important as Rogers'. However, Ponder's Turnovers are probably more critical that Rogers'. Likewise on the TDs, when we have AP, we are going to feed it to him in the Red Zone, hence fewere passing TD.

This is the thing the Ponder bashes never seem to put together, and that is that for Ponder is never going to have mind blowing passing stats when we have over 30 rushing snaps a game. Are the bashers in favor of not feeding AP the ball? Now, this doesn't mean Ponder doesn't need to improve, far from it, he needs to get better. However if Ponder is putting up 35+ pass attempts it means something else is broken. The defense fell apart, we had a bunch of turnovers and were playing down 2 scores, or a combination of the 2. Neither is good.

The 17-24 number is awesome. 131 yards not exciting. 0 picks. Awesome. So really, in critiqueing that you are saying he needs to throw more downfield. OK fine. But, at some point getting more yards meens putting that zero pick stat at risk. I agree they need more bite to the passing game, but this team is built on winning the take give and controlling the ball. 0 picks is very, very important.

This year, assuming or WR additions/improvements stay healthy we'll find out if Ponder can make throws longer that 5 yards with consistency while maintaining a low turnover number. If he can do 17-24 with 200 yards I'll be very happy. If AP is still putting up 150 a game they won't need more than that from Ponder.

[Bill Carson]

How frustrating is it when AD runs for 2yds, then 6, and then on 3rd & short there's an incomplete pass? How about when the defense holds Rodgers to incomplete on 1st down, maybe even a sack on 2nd down, and then on 3rd & long - BAM first down (and then some YAC just to rub it in). I think those are the moments that really good QBs can separate themselves, frustrate an opponent, or excite the team and the crowd.

Here's a ranking of 3rd and 4th down QB performance just for fun:


49.07% Peyton Manning
46.45% Matt Ryan
44.83% Tom Brady
43.94% Drew Brees
43.85% Tony Romo
43.75% Matthew Stafford
43.75% Russell Wilson
43.54% Ben Roethlisberger
43.17% Aaron Rodgers
42.86% Andrew Luck
41.13% Michael Vick
39.52% Ryan Fitzpatrick
38.98% Christian Ponder
...

[Funkytown]

Exactly. I said from the OP that the QBR stat is subjective and that I didn't know how much information could be gleaned from it. Stats can only reveal so much about a QB's actual performance and while more subjective evaluations make an effort to provide a more accurate overall picture than hard numbers, in the end they're based on the observations of individuals and as we know, people can watch the same plays/games and come away with very different impressions.

Wow. Where have you been all of my life? lol There was a *big* stats guy on Vikings.com. All he cared about were stats. Stats stats stats. As a matter of fact, he admitted he only watched a couple Vikings games a year--if that. So, essentially, he based all of his opinions off of stats and highlights. He was HUGE on QBR. Talk about mentally exhausting. lol. It's one thing to watch the games AND pay attention to the stats; it's another to not even bother watching the games, but then pretend to know everything based on just stats. Yeesh. I can't get down with that. I think actually watching the games and forming opinions based on that is a key part.

[mansquatch]

How frustrating is it when AD runs for 2yds, then 6, and then on 3rd & short there's an incomplete pass? How about when the defense holds Rodgers to incomplete on 1st down, maybe even a sack on 2nd down, and then on 3rd & long - BAM first down (and then some YAC just to rub it in). I think those are the moments that really good QBs can separate themselves, frustrate an opponent, or excite the team and the crowd.

Here's a ranking of 3rd and 4th down QB performance just for fun:


49.07% Peyton Manning
46.45% Matt Ryan
44.83% Tom Brady
43.94% Drew Brees
43.85% Tony Romo
43.75% Matthew Stafford
43.75% Russell Wilson
43.54% Ben Roethlisberger
43.17% Aaron Rodgers
42.86% Andrew Luck
41.13% Michael Vick
39.52% Ryan Fitzpatrick
38.98% Christian Ponder
...

I agree that is frustrating, but as unappealing as incomplete on 3rd and 2 is, how irritating is it that on 3rd and 2 Musgrave doesn't give it to AP a 3rd time?

I'm not saying Ponder is a proven commodity at all, he needs ot get better. I'm just pointing out that there is a bit of ceiling for his improvment until they decide to lessen the load AP carries. I would also argue that Ponder only having 12 INT is a sign that on at least some of those incompletes he threw it away vs. making a bad play. (on several of those 12 picks he did the opposite and we all cringed, which further emphasizes that last season there was a great deal of emphasis on not commiting the turnover)