Speilman: Build thru the draft?

[TeamChaplain]

I like where you're going with the whole under the radar QB thing.. but I think we're set at the position going in.. CP,MC,JW and MBT, my hope is that they find another position for Joe Webb and McLeod Bethel-Thompson can step it up and challenge for the number 2 spot.

[Rus]

Building through the draft is how a lot of the best teams in the league from small, cold, non-tourist trap markets have managed to field very good teams over the years. The Vikings, on the other hand, have a long and sordid history of signing really crummy free agent wide receivers for far more $$ than they ever ended up earning through production. The receivers they've drafted, however, for the most part have been really good for them.

This isn't a new thing, either, this goes back all the way to the mid-90's. Cris Carter was the last receiver I can remember that they acquired through free agency that turned out to be a real find. Remember DeWayne Bowe? Marcus Robinson, Bobby Wade, and Bernard Berrian? Koren Robinson was good until he tragically flamed out...again...and got himself kicked off the team for basically the reasons Koren Robinson got kicked off teams. They don't have a good history with wide receivers, and that actually tends to be the norm for most teams. It's kind of rare that you happen upon a really good wide receiver in free agency that lives up to what you pay them. The ones that you do find usually have something in their character or off-field issues that makes you not want to sign them.

The best value positions in free agency are usually positions like tight end, defensive back, running back, guard, or one of the outside linebacker positions. Positions where teams with an extra draft pick will roll the dice and see if they can upgrade a position via BPA...and if they can, then a vet comes loose...if they can't, then you have a young guy who was picked for value. Positions like wide receiver aren't so great because the high burn/injury rate of receivers causes teams to replace them frequently, which usually leads to a lot of burned out/hurt wide receivers looking for work.

[Rus]

I'm thinking Manuel is going to sneak up into the top of the 2nd round right now, and one of the QB-needy teams like Arizona, Buffalo, or Miami might sit back in the 1st and try to land him there. The way things are shaping up there might be a mini-run on QBs in that top half of the 2nd round as the QB-needy take advantage of the conventional wisdom that this is a "weak" QB class.

One of the problems with conventional wisdom is that it's oftentimes right, and while you want to be smarter than a whole lot of other people who evaluate players for a job, most of the time, you're not.

The biggest problem with EJ Manuel is that he can't hit the side of a barn with his throws and he gets disturbed by a rough pass rush. Kind of like Ponder in a bigger, more athletic body that you wouldn't think would be frightened of a serious pass rush. He and Ponder certainly have a lot of shared experience already, though, and Manuel has had a few big games under his belt. He put up okay stats in an offense that helped make Ponder a mid-first round pick. He definitely seemed to improve last year. He has a pretty prototypical build and body, very much that Cam Newton "supreme being" look to him, but the numbers don't even sniff at Newton's. Got a very good arm and he can scramble, but you'd think that would have enabled him to put up better college numbers than Christian Ponder, too. He's definitely a project quarterback, but some team is going to go gaga over his combine numbers and snap him up a couple rounds too early and make him a project, I'm sure. He seems like a very good kid off the field, with a good personality, so I'd say he's probably an ideal 4th round project quarterback.

Glennon is another kid that looks like at best, he's Flacco, at worst, maybe John Skelton. If Manuel isn't there and Glennon is, I'd say he's about the same level of risk. He's another guy that has trouble with a pass rush, but that's part because he's thin as a rail and has slow, clumsy feet. He CAN, however, hit the broad side of a barn quite well and even put it exactly where he wants it. He actually did throw for enough yards in college that I would say would warrant a second or third round pick. He reads defenses better than Manuel, but you probably wouldn't be able to teach Glennon the ability to scramble.

It really is a pretty weak quarterback class. You can look at the college stats and numbers and those back that claim up. The top guys put up somewhat pedestrian numbers compared to some of the numbers that quarterbacks drafted last year and the year before put up. A lot of these guys were backups to guys that were picked during the last two years (and many that were not drafted at all). Many of them were even playing in fairly quarterback-friendly offenses, too. There are several very good underclassmen quarterbacks as well that couldn't declare this year. All that doesn't mean that there won't be one or two good quarterbacks that come out of it, what it means is that the ones in it are a more risky gamble than you'd have in other years. You've got to be REALLY drinking the anti-Ponder kool-aid to throw a 1st-2nd round pick at a quarterback in a weak draft class when you've got other positions that are maybe even worse...and you're a team strapped for salary cap and you've decided to commit to building through the draft. You've got to be drinking so much of that anti-Ponder kool-aid that Matt Cassel looks like anything other than a backup to you.

Let me put it this way, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson.