Ponder's QBR

[Demi]

In a few games (against playoff-caliber teams) Ponder looked like the kind of sharp, young leader at QB who can take a team places.

Yes, when everything else is going great he can have some success. Quarterbacks in this league have to make things go great. They need to make plays. They can't just show up when their running back is gouging teams for 150 yards and the defense is giving the opposing offense hell.

They're really going to say that game at Saint Louis when he threw for 131 yards and the rest of the team was unstoppable against a bad team was worth a #2 ranking? And people give PFF crap for their "stats" and ratings!

Jamarcus Russell had a few good games his 2nd year too. Start any QB for an entire season and they will. Ask them to throw nothing but short passes and they'll have even more. At least we'll finally get an answer this year one way or the other on Ponder. And I doubt even QBR will be able to lipstick this pig!

[Purple bruise]

I have to say that it sickens me to know there are "fans" out there who are hoping and praying to see Ponder fail and I will take great delight in seeing and hearing their reactions when he develops into a very good QB

[Mothman]

Yes, when everything else is going great he can have some success. Quarterbacks in this league have to make things go great. They need to make plays. They can't just show up when their running back is gouging teams for 150 yards and the defense is giving the opposing offense hell.

That's not what Ponder did. For example, in week 3, he was instrumental in the Vikings victory over San Francisco, a game in which Peterson ran for 86 yards, not 150+. He made plays. He threw for 2 TDs, ran for another and completed 21 of 35 passes as he led the Vikings to a big upset win.

Peterson wasn't gouging the Titans for 150+ yards 2 weeks later either, when Ponder went 25 of 35 for 258 yards and 2 TDs as the Vikings blew out Tennessee 30-7. You're fond of dwelling on the negatives when it comes to Ponder and minimizing what he did well but he did do things well. He had some very good performances in 2012 and dismissing a good performance by a QB because players around him did a good job as well is ludicrous. No QB "makes" things go great without help. The game simply doesn't work that way.

They're really going to say that game at Saint Louis when he threw for 131 yards and the rest of the team was unstoppable against a bad team was worth a #2 ranking? And people give PFF crap for their "stats" and ratings!

Read what the stat represents. A #2 QBR doesn't necessarily mean that QB was the second best QB in the league that week or that he gave the second most impressive overall performance and as I said, the stat is somewhat subjective. I'm not throwing it out there as a definitive indication of excellence or awfulness. As I said in the OP, it's interesting.

[Delaqure]

I have to say that it sickens me to know there are "fans" out there who are hoping and praying to see Ponder fail and I will take great delight in seeing and hearing their reactions when he develops into a very good QB

In their defense I don't think they are hoping he will fail I think they believe he is a failure and will not succeed. There is a difference. I may be wrong but I think they hope he will succeed but believe he won't.

I'm in the camp of I hope he does succeed because I don't want my team to waste time trying to develope another QB. I don't have enough confidence to predict Ponder's success or failure at this point. Others don't have that problem.

[mondry]

You would think that a good QB facing 8 in the box more than any other QB in the league (thanks to the best running back in recent memory) would complete a lot of 20+ yard passes. Instead, it was mostly little dump-offs, screens and outs, hoping for YAC. No defense in the league respects Ponder's deep passing game. It was our achilles heel in 2012. Ponder is simply a below-average NFL quarterback, so far. .

And who exactly was the deep threat WR he was suppose to use to make them respect his deep passing game? No harvin, hobbled simpson who lost his speed, rudolph not a deep threat, jenkins?

Once Jarius Wright finally got some playing time he and Ponder connected on a couple deep shots pretty easily it seemed. With Jennings, a second year man in wright, and hopefully a healthy Simpson we should be able to test intermediate / deeper parts of the field more often.

Let's hope he breaks out in 2013

Agreed! He should have the tools to do so this year.

[The Breeze]

And who exactly was the deep threat WR he was suppose to use to make them respect his deep passing game? No harvin, hobbled simpson who lost his speed, rudolph not a deep threat, jenkins?

Once Jarius Wright finally got some playing time he and Ponder connected on a couple deep shots pretty easily it seemed. With Jennings, a second year man in wright, and hopefully a healthy Simpson we should be able to test intermediate / deeper parts of the field more often.

and this is it in a nutshell.

throw in the improvement along the o-line and everything lines up for a season in which we can really expect some definitive data on our QB.

[VikingLord]

Ponder played his best late against some of the league's better teams. Yes, AD was tearing it up, but Ponder made some plays when he didn't have Harvin, the team was trying to make the playoffs, and the team needed him to play well.

I'm very optimistic those games are evidence he turned the corner late. Not proof per se, but solid evidence he started to figure some things out and find ways to hurt defenses that had developed a solid gameplan to defense him.

[ViciousBritishVike]

People forget that the guy's still relatively young, inexperienced and in fairness has had a fair deal of success in achieving what is expected of him. Perhaps Ponder would thrive in a primarily Gun based offense, who knows?! That's never going to the case with us Vikes though of course, we're a run orientated team and with good reason, heck, why not over utilise the league's best back? Though of course, a contingency plan should be in place and I believe that's a huge part why the offensive line has been shored up in recent seasons, along with the WR corps now gaining depth.

I believe sometimes, reporters invent too many different scales to gauge the performance of players. Ultimately, it all boils down to scheme, surrounding talent and opportunities.

I'll always have faith in Ponder and for any Vike for that matter, we don't turn against our own

[Mothman]

Ponder played his best late against some of the league's better teams. Yes, AD was tearing it up, but Ponder made some plays when he didn't have Harvin, the team was trying to make the playoffs, and the team needed him to play well.

I'm very optimistic those games are evidence he turned the corner late. Not proof per se, but solid evidence he started to figure some things out and find ways to hurt defenses that had developed a solid gameplan to defense him.

I feel the same way but then, I actually felt like he was figuring out earlier in the season too, after seeing the aforementioned performances against SF and Tennessee. However, it seemed like once adversity hit and hit hard, he lost his confidence and really struggled. If that's what happened, he has to become mentally tougher than that and hopefully, his performances late in the season were an indication that he got over that particular hurdle.

I really hope they can get him at least one more good outside weapon in the draft. If they do, between that player, Jennings, Wright and Simpson I'm hopeful they can put together a much more effective passing attack in 2013.

[Demi]

However, it seemed like once adversity hit and hit hard, he lost his confidence and really struggled.

Because he's a head case. Mentally weak. Emotionally questionable. Immature. A front runner? It showed even more when he felt the need to reply to the pointless jab about his girlfriend that a starting NFL quarterback should be above. And reports early on that the Vikings didn't feel it'd be a good idea to bring in any real competition because they had questions about just that, his confidence.

Forget the other physical issues I have, mentally he isn't all their either.

But maybe with Jennings and another year in the system he'll get it all together.

[Rus]

I think Ponder has all the physical tools and has shown it. He definitely displays the inconsistency of young player....i would guess that it's because he is a young player.

Exactly. Also, when he was drafted, every analyst I read (and considering that the draft basically is what keeps me going year in and out, I read a LOT of analysis) felt that he was the type of quarterback that would need a couple of years before he'd be ready to start. He then went on to start more games as a rookie than any quarterback in Vikings franchise history (even Culpepper had a year sitting behind Jeff George and Cunningham). And after those "couple of years" where he started far more games than any Vikings quarterback in their first 2 years, the fans decided to just about give up on the guy.

The smart quarterbacks usually need more time, because they have to see more of the pro game to figure out how to beat it consistently and make that knowledge instinctual. The guys with freakish athleticism or incredibly quick releases can usually start right away, but there are significant downsides to their games as well. The athletic guys always seem to burn out real fast, end up needing surgeries, for one. The guys who racked up crazy numbers in spread offenses with quick releases and strongish arms back in college can sometimes blow defenses away in the pros for a year or two, but usually they end up regressing pretty hard once teams have a chance to study tape and gameplan for them.

Calling a young quarterback a headcase though is stupid. When you're still new to the game, playing the most important position on the team, you've got media pressure and fan pressure on your head...and you haven't even had enough time to really figure out the timing adjustments needed to play against a pro defense that wants to stop you at all costs...and you get down on yourself, you are NOT a headcase. You are HUMAN. Fans should adjust their standards accordingly. If you worked at a company that made all its money off one product, and you hired a kid right out of college and put him to work on the most crucial component of the product...and he wasn't totally consistent about it, you have yourself to blame, not that kid. Don't call the kid a headcase, call the manager who made that decision the one who made the WRONG decision. This one is all on Frazier and Spielman for not finding a better free agent quarterback for Ponder to sit behind.

[Mothman]

Exactly. Also, when he was drafted, every analyst I read (and considering that the draft basically is what keeps me going year in and out, I read a LOT of analysis) felt that he was the type of quarterback that would need a couple of years before he'd be ready to start. He then went on to start more games as a rookie than any quarterback in Vikings franchise history (even Culpepper had a year sitting behind Jeff George and Cunningham). And after those "couple of years" where he started far more games than any Vikings quarterback in their first 2 years, the fans decided to just about give up on the guy.

The smart quarterbacks usually need more time, because they have to see more of the pro game to figure out how to beat it consistently and make that knowledge instinctual. The guys with freakish athleticism or incredibly quick releases can usually start right away, but there are significant downsides to their games as well. The athletic guys always seem to burn out real fast, end up needing surgeries, for one. The guys who racked up crazy numbers in spread offenses with quick releases and strongish arms back in college can sometimes blow defenses away in the pros for a year or two, but usually they end up regressing pretty hard once teams have a chance to study tape and gameplan for them.

Excellent points, Rus.

[losperros]

Exactly. Also, when he was drafted, every analyst I read (and considering that the draft basically is what keeps me going year in and out, I read a LOT of analysis) felt that he was the type of quarterback that would need a couple of years before he'd be ready to start. He then went on to start more games as a rookie than any quarterback in Vikings franchise history (even Culpepper had a year sitting behind Jeff George and Cunningham). And after those "couple of years" where he started far more games than any Vikings quarterback in their first 2 years, the fans decided to just about give up on the guy.

The smart quarterbacks usually need more time, because they have to see more of the pro game to figure out how to beat it consistently and make that knowledge instinctual. The guys with freakish athleticism or incredibly quick releases can usually start right away, but there are significant downsides to their games as well. The athletic guys always seem to burn out real fast, end up needing surgeries, for one. The guys who racked up crazy numbers in spread offenses with quick releases and strongish arms back in college can sometimes blow defenses away in the pros for a year or two, but usually they end up regressing pretty hard once teams have a chance to study tape and gameplan for them.

Calling a young quarterback a headcase though is stupid. When you're still new to the game, playing the most important position on the team, you've got media pressure and fan pressure on your head...and you haven't even had enough time to really figure out the timing adjustments needed to play against a pro defense that wants to stop you at all costs...and you get down on yourself, you are NOT a headcase. You are HUMAN. Fans should adjust their standards accordingly. If you worked at a company that made all its money off one product, and you hired a kid right out of college and put him to work on the most crucial component of the product...and he wasn't totally consistent about it, you have yourself to blame, not that kid. Don't call the kid a headcase, call the manager who made that decision the one who made the WRONG decision. This one is all on Frazier and Spielman for not finding a better free agent quarterback for Ponder to sit behind.

Nice post, Rus.

My biggest concerns about Ponder are his decision making and his health. Playing time and experience might improve his decision making. We shall see. Personally, I thought he showed improvement last year over the previous year. So there's hope.

That said, I'm still concerned about his health issues for a couple of reasons. First, though some think the Vikings have a formidable OL, I've seen Ponder take some big hits. These are the kind of hits that knock QBs out of games, so I'm not really saying Ponder is fragile or anything. But second, whether we want to admit it or not, Ponder has an injury history. This started with his junior and senior years with the Seminoles, and we're seeing Ponder get hurt nowadays too. Some players end up hampered by frequent injuries throughout their NFL career. I'm hoping that this next season Ponder defeats the injury bug and can remain healthy.

[soflavike]

And who exactly was the deep threat WR he was suppose to use to make them respect his deep passing game? No harvin, hobbled simpson who lost his speed, rudolph not a deep threat, jenkins?

Once Jarius Wright finally got some playing time he and Ponder connected on a couple deep shots pretty easily it seemed. With Jennings, a second year man in wright, and hopefully a healthy Simpson we should be able to test intermediate / deeper parts of the field more often.

I guess I feel that with 8 in the box and single coverage on the WR's, he could have stretched the field a lot more than he did. I'm not asking for 60 yd bombs every other play, but you have to throw a few 25 yd completions per game to make a secondary think twice.

The coaches clearly didn't want him to let it rip downfield and they probably had damn good reasons for it. The game plans were designed to limit risk in the passing game and mask his difficulties throwing downfield. When he had opportunities to hit a guy deep he often checked down and took the "safe" 3 yard pass.

Yes, he completed a few long passes. I know that. Just not enough to worry any defense in the league. He also threw some pretty ugly long balls. Ugly enough to question the quality of his arm.

I don't hate the guy and I really want him to prove me wrong, but I'm worried we're wasting three or four seasons on a very mediocre QB. I had enough of that with T-Jack.

[mondry]

I guess I feel that with 8 in the box and single coverage on the WR's, he could have stretched the field a lot more than he did. I'm not asking for 60 yd bombs every other play, but you have to throw a few 25 yd completions per game to make a secondary think twice.

A lot of people get caught up with "8 in the box" like it's selling out to stop the run, or the players are only thinking about the run. Here's the thing though, if it's not play action, 8 in the box doesn't matter at all when it comes to defending the pass, with the WR's we have. Simply look into the back field, see Peterson didn't get it, and cover Jenkins and Rudolph who aren't going to blow by you, not a big deal at all. Simpson or whoever looks the most dangerous still gets a safety over the top (4 DL, 3 LBs, 1 S in the box = eight) If it is play action, it can take about a second to realize it's a fake and most DB's with 4.5 speed can close on guys like jenkins who at this point in his career is probably running at 5.0 speed at best. Not to mention it takes a little while for guys like that to even get 20 yards down the field, as not every route is a GO route. They can get bumped at the line and re-routed possibly slowing them down more, contact is okay within 5 yards.

In musgrave's bunched offense, we keep everything in tight, usually with only 2 WR's on the field (double tight ends) so really only one WR is getting single coverage.

So unless you're playing GB or NO or an offense like that, 8 in the box is fairly standard for anyone with any kind of running game at all on 1st and 2nd down. All it really means is that you have an extra guy within like 10 yards of the LoS instead of say 12-15 yards back.

I don't hate the guy and I really want him to prove me wrong, but I'm worried we're wasting three or four seasons on a very mediocre QB. I had enough of that with T-Jack.

That would be unfortunate, but I think it's safe to say he's already done many more impressive things and the upside is there over TJ. Even after the entire next season it'll only be 2.5 years starting for Ponder and I think he's earned that much anyway.