Ponder: The Answer?

[Mothman]

Jut to reinforce the point I already hammered away at above...

This is from a chat earlier today with Tom Pelissero:

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Chat ... 011413?t=2

Comment From Mike
Going into Ponder's third year now, how much do you think Musgrave expands the offense next year?

Tom Pelissero: As long as they have Peterson on the team, the offense will run through 28. But I think you saw incremental evolution even over the last four games of the regular season. Ponder was given a little more each week and probably played his best game in the regular-season finale against Green Bay. Having a real split end would sure open up more of those shot plays. Two years and the Vikings have yet to have one.

I recommend the whole chat. There's some interesting stuff in it.

[mansquatch]

Out of the final 4 games, the only one that can even be considered above average was the final game vs the Packers. The other 3 were pathetic by NFL standards. He did have a good 1st half vs Houston, but regressed to his old self in the 2nd half.

CHI - 91 yards 0 TD 1 INT
STL - 131 yards 0 TD 0 INT
HOU - 174 yards 1 TD 0 INT
GB - 234 yards 3 TD 0 INT

I hardly call that 4 good games. I call it 1 decent game and 3 games where everyone ignored Ponders performance because we won.

My guess is you are emphasizing yards and TDs. I would agree that the Chicago game was bar far the weakest in this bunch. However, what I see is a QB who protected the football during a winning streak. Part of Ponder’s numbers are the fact that he shares the field with #28. This team isn’t built to run on a 300 yard passer. It is built to run on 150+ yards from the RB and not give the ball away. I would submit that at least part of your dissatisfaction with Ponder’s final numbers is a result not of Ponder, but the way the Vikings are built to win football games. In the Rams and Texans games the Vikings jumped ahead early and then fed AP the ball often. There was no reason for them to throw more than they did. In the GB game Ponder was asked to throw more and he did, without making the big mistake.

Be careful what you wish for, this team doesn’t want a guy who slings the ball and racks up yards. They want a guy who can make the clutch play when it is needed and not give the ball away. Ponder has shown he can be that guy, we just need him to do it in all 16 games.

[Demi]

Be careful what you wish for, this team doesn’t want a guy who slings the ball and racks up yards. They want a guy who can make the clutch play when it is needed and not give the ball away. Ponder has shown he can be that guy, we just need him to do it in all 16 games.

And 16 games is about all you can expect.

Frazier was all giddy before the playoff game about "running the ball and stopping the run" and how see, he told us, you can still win that way in the NFL!

No one said you can't win that way in the NFL. They said you can't win CHAMPIONSHIPS that way in the NFL.

Even if Ponder gets to that game manager level, it's not going to matter when we're in the playoffs and playing teams with quarterbacks that CAN sling the ball, rack up yards, and make the clutch plays. And are asked, and EXPECTED to do more than just "not give the ball away". And our stop the run, run the ball, isn't going to be enough anymore! And neither will Ponder!

[mansquatch]

Last I checked the Ravens and 49ers are both Defense first teams who prefer to run the ball. The 49ers are rolling with more read option due to Kaepernick, but they are still a power rushing team. You can’t possibly think those two squads are nearly as pass happy as the two teams they’ll be facing this weekend. 50/50 chance one of those clubs will have a shot at the Superbowl. The 49ers already demolished NE in NE this year. The Ravens would have been in the SB last year if not for a crap field goal kicker. 49ers were a play away as well.

[Demi]

Last I checked the Ravens and 49ers are both Defense first teams who prefer to run the ball. The 49ers are rolling with more read option due to Kaepernick, but they are still a power rushing team. You can’t possibly think those two squads are nearly as pass happy as the two teams they’ll be facing this weekend. 50/50 chance one of those clubs will have a shot at the Superbowl. The 49ers already demolished NE in NE this year. The Ravens would have been in the SB last year if not for a crap field goal kicker. 49ers were a play away as well.

No, but they both have strong armed quarterbacks that can throw the ball downfield. Would you consider Kaepernick or Flacco "game managers"? Hardly.

[Reignman]

I have absolutely no doubt that a big part of what the coaches did and didn't ask Ponder to do was determined by the performance of the players around him. There was a justifiable lack of faith in Ponder's targets.

It's too easy to bag on the receivers. Yeah I understand we have bad receivers, but I actually watched the games myself and you can't blame the receivers for bad mechanics, late reads, and terrible throws. The guy has had 26 starts not 6. It's time to take the training wheels off and stop coddling. I mean did you see that deep ball to AD at Lambeau? That wasn't just 1 bad throw, that was a sample of the many awful deep throws this year.

Again, take away his best target and he struggles. Is it that hard to connect the dots?

If you take away a QB's best target he should still be able adjust and make plays. He's not the first QB to lose his #1 target. The possibility of a guy getting hurt is there and I would hope we had a guy that could overcome such a situation. And besides, he started to struggle before he lost PH. He started to struggle as soon as teams took away the short game. I have connected the dots, I just see a different picture.

People love to talk about how a team can't win a Super Bowl without a franchise QB but I doubt anybody could win one with Harvin injured and Simpson, Jenkins and Wright as their top 3 WRs. It would take one hell of a defense and and running game to get that job done!

The numbers don't lie. Most teams have figured out that this is a passing league and passing teams are the ones winning all the divisions and championships. Most of the teams that needed a new head coach this off season have hired an offensive minded coach. Only the Jags have gone defensive. It's like evolution, those who adapt better to the changing environment are the ones who stand a better chance of succeeding. And the current environment is conducive to passing.

I would submit that at least part of your dissatisfaction with Ponder’s final numbers is a result not of Ponder, but the way the Vikings are built to win football games. In the Rams and Texans games the Vikings jumped ahead early and then fed AP the ball often. There was no reason for them to throw more than they did. In the GB game Ponder was asked to throw more and he did, without making the big mistake.

You're not far off the mark. I'm not happy at all with Frazier and his establish the run/stop the run philosophy, as I pointed out above. Teams don't win championships with this formula anymore. We just had possibly the best season a team can get from a RB and all it got us was a one and done 6th seed. Let me say that again because it bears repeating ... the best run attack possible got us 10 wins and a wildcard berth. Meanwhile the best pass offenses compete for home field advantage every year.

Be careful what you wish for, this team doesn’t want a guy who slings the ball and racks up yards. They want a guy who can make the clutch play when it is needed and not give the ball away. Ponder has shown he can be that guy, we just need him to do it in all 16 games.

Well I'm going to keep wishing because we can't do much worse than the 31st ranked pass offense. I don't expect us to find a Rodgers or a Brady, but I do expect us to find a top 15 guy if we ever hope to sniff a super bowl. And if this team doesn't want a guy who can sling the ball around then this team is never going to win anything. But what do you believe more, this team doesn't want a guy who can sling the ball around or this team doesn't have a guy who can sling the ball around so they're just trying to make do?

[mansquatch]

I don't know, my read of this coaching staff is they want their QB to be clutch and not the whole show. They seem to view the passing game as a compliment to the rushing attack.

I do not agree with your view that this style cannot work. The reason the read option was so effective isn't because it is earth shattering, it is because teams have built themselves to defend the pass and rushing ends have an issue playing contain against a highly mobile passer. Power rushing is the same basic idea. As teams require LB to play more coverage and or blitz, a physical team will have more advantages playing against smaller, more athletic defenses. The key is having a RB like #28 to be the lynch pin.

At the end of the day talent matters. So do you build a team around the status quo or do you build it around a legendary talent like #28. That seems obvious, but there are certainly risks involved. I would argue that 2012 showed that a power rushing dominated offense can work. It has advantages over pass heavy teams, but it needs defense to compliment it. (The passing team needs takeaways, that is the model GB and NO use)

The point though is that if your offense emphasises rushing you are rarely going to see a 300 yard passing game. The reason is if your strength is successful you will not need to the throw the ball. This is why I do not think Ponder's yardage stats are always a result of his ineptitude. (they most certainly were in some cases in the middle of the season, but in December the 2 road wins didn't require a lot of passing.)

[Mothman]

It's too easy to bag on the receivers. Yeah I understand we have bad receivers, but I actually watched the games myself and you can't blame the receivers for bad mechanics, late reads, and terrible throws. The guy has had 26 starts not 6. It's time to take the training wheels off and stop coddling. I mean did you see that deep ball to AD at Lambeau? That wasn't just 1 bad throw, that was a sample of the many awful deep throws this year.

It's no easier to bag on the receivers than it is to bag on the QB, which is about as easy as it gets these days. Nobody is blaming receivers for bad mechanics, late reads or terrible throws. However, they deserve blame for poorly run routes, dropped passes, failure to get open, etc. We'd be naive to think that stuff had no influence on Musgrave's playcalling this season.

If you take away a QB's best target he should still be able adjust and make plays.

... and as the season moved forward, he did.

He's not the first QB to lose his #1 target. The possibility of a guy getting hurt is there and I would hope we had a guy that could overcome such a situation. And besides, he started to struggle before he lost PH. He started to struggle as soon as teams took away the short game. I have connected the dots, I just see a different picture.

If you're dismissing WR performance, it's not a complete picture. One of the reasons Ponder struggled as teams took away the short passing game is because the Vikings didn't have receivers who could win battles on deep and intermediate routes with much consistency. It's not the only reason but it was definitely a factor (and a pretty big one at that).

We just had possibly the best season a team can get from a RB and all it got us was a one and done 6th seed. Let me say that again because it bears repeating ... the best run attack possible got us 10 wins and a wildcard berth. Meanwhile the best pass offenses compete for home field advantage every year.

The top 3 passing offenses in the league this year were New Orleans, Detroit and Dallas. They didn't compete for HFA in the playoffs.

QBs don't win championships and passing offenses don't win championships. Teams win championships and if a team is too imbalanced, they're unlikely to get the job done, which is why Falcons fans shouldn't get their hopes too high for a Super Bowl win this season.

2 of the 4 teams remaining in the playoffs were among the top 10 rushing teams in the NFL this year. A third (the Ravens) was ranked #11. All 4 of the remaining playoff teams finished in the top 12 in scoring defense. The Pats and 49ers are both among the top ten in run defense and the Pats, 49ers and Ravens are all in the top 10 in average rushing yards allowed per carry. Most of these teams aren't playing for a shot at the Super Bowl because of their passing attacks. They are where they are because they have enough going for them as teams. Meanwhile, teams like Green Bay and Minnesota are at home because they weren't sufficiently balanced.

I don't think anybody is going to argue that the Vikings don't need to improve their passing attack to win a championship but there's clearly nothing wrong with an establish the run/stop the run philosophy as a basis to build upon. It needs to be accompanied by a more effective passing game (and of course, a team needs to be able to defend the pass as well). That takes time to build and although it may start with the QB, it sure doesn't end there.

[chicagopurple]

you can't ignore the fact that we lost Syndey Rice, Harvin was out, no more Moss, and the ownership pinned their hopes on a bunch of cast-off receivers who weren't good enough to make the cut on other teams..Most notably, Berrian and Aromashadou who were SO bad that even the Bears dumped them!! And the Bears had NO receivers...they got Marshall later and that is ALL they have...our receivers are bargain basement.

However, that said, I still don't have ANY confidence in Ponder. AND I have total confidence that Webb will NEVER be a real QB.

[chicagopurple]

Oh, and as far as DEVELOPING a QB, I don't believe the Vikings have really molded a QB in modern history except for possibly Culpepper (really we will never know, since he blew up his knee). Sadly, I have no reason to believe they have the coaches to make much out of Ponder.

[Mothman]

Oh, and as far as DEVELOPING a QB, I don't believe the Vikings have really molded a QB in modern history except for possibly Culpepper (really we will never know, since he blew up his knee).

They developed Brad Johnson. Other than Culpepper and Johnson, you'd have to go all the way back to Wade Wilson or Tommy Kramer (I never thought Wilson was that great).

Sadly, I have no reason to believe they have the coaches to make much out of Ponder.

Musgrave did a nice job with both Byron Leftwich and Matt Ryan and Craig Johnson has had success in the NFL as a QB coach too so there's reason for optimism in that department. In the end, it's really up to Ponder. No matter how well he's taught, he's the one who has to put it all together on the field.

Jim

[Hunter Morrow]

If the question is "Who is the worst GB in the NFC North?" then yeah.

[Mothman]

If the question is "Who is the worst GB in the NFC North?" then yeah.

The worst "GB" in the North is clearly Green Bay.

[w_huisman]

And 16 games is about all you can expect.

Frazier was all giddy before the playoff game about "running the ball and stopping the run" and how see, he told us, you can still win that way in the NFL!

No one said you can't win that way in the NFL. They said you can't win CHAMPIONSHIPS that way in the NFL.

Even if Ponder gets to that game manager level, it's not going to matter when we're in the playoffs and playing teams with quarterbacks that CAN sling the ball, rack up yards, and make the clutch plays. And are asked, and EXPECTED to do more than just "not give the ball away". And our stop the run, run the ball, isn't going to be enough anymore! And neither will Ponder!

Holy cow! Talk about a pot stirrer!

[w_huisman]

And 16 games is about all you can expect.

Frazier was all giddy before the playoff game about "running the ball and stopping the run" and how see, he told us, you can still win that way in the NFL!

No one said you can't win that way in the NFL. They said you can't win CHAMPIONSHIPS that way in the NFL.

Even if Ponder gets to that game manager level, it's not going to matter when we're in the playoffs and playing teams with quarterbacks that CAN sling the ball, rack up yards, and make the clutch plays. And are asked, and EXPECTED to do more than just "not give the ball away". And our stop the run, run the ball, isn't going to be enough anymore! And neither will Ponder!

Holy cow! Talk about a pot stirrer!