Ponder: The Answer?

[CalVike]

Hmm based on what? A few years experience? Hoping doesnt make it so. Didnt the QB situation this year make you wonder a little bit? From Ponder to MBT? Webb was our backup..... Now yes, there is improvement. But its hard not to improve on a 3-13 season. Im much more excited about our drafting then our FAs and coaching this year.

My point is this, many may disagree, flame away. Everyone working in the Vikings front office and on their coaching staff knows infinitely more than anyone posting on this board who's job is not football. They also have access to immediate information that is not available to us, both on the existing players and on the players they scout. Many of them dedicate their lives to making our favorite team better. We don't, this is an avocation for us. They picked Christian Ponder for a reason, whether some of us like it or not. I do not know enough about his career at Florida State to know how much of a reach he was at 12, at this point I do not care. I only care about results on the field. And the fact of the matter is he started 16 games for a team that went 10-6 and made the playoffs. Could a Sage Rosenfels type have done better. Maybe, but Rosenfels has never been a consistent NFL starter who led a team anywhere so that's a tough sell for me. I'm happy to have "Check Down Charlie" start 2013 as the undisputed starter and expect he will be the starter to finish the season too. As a fan, I was highly critical of his play mid-season, but I have to change my tune when they make the playoffs. A team does not make the playoffs in spite of its QB. His play was especially impressive the last 7 games, going 5-2 without Percy Harvin. We could easily have a hidden gem developing that with a true #1 receiver and PH back, matures into an excellent QB. It is also notable that those QBs taken before him, with the exception of Cam Newton (#1 overall so not in the same class) notably Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert have done little to nothing so far in their careers. It is also worth noting that even the great Peyton Manning, who no one would ever compare to Christian Ponder, threw an across the body interception very similar to Ponder's INT in the first Green Bay game that cost his team their season. It's a complicated business the NFL, so give some credit sometimes, please.

[Reignman]

So you discount his improvement in the last four games and his 120 QB rating to beat the Packers in the last game with 3tds and no ints.

I don't discount anything. Just because he finished on a 1 game high note doesn't mean he suddenly turned the corner. Do you discount all the bad starts he had leading up to that final game? Which Ponder do you believe is the real Ponder? To me that final game was the exception and not the norm.

I really hope he proves me wrong next year. I'd much rather eat crow than go through another 3 year project or decade of stop gaps. But I refuse to be content with just having a warm body out there that can hand the ball to AD.

[Reignman]

My point is this, many may disagree, flame away. Everyone working in the Vikings front office and on their coaching staff knows infinitely more than anyone posting on this board who's job is not football. They also have access to immediate information that is not available to us, both on the existing players and on the players they scout.

And yet they still screw up just as often as we do haha. Sorry not meant as flame, I just saw a hanging curve and took a swing. I pulled it foul.

[jackal]

At this point I am willing to bring another and let them compete for the Job and see who wins ,
Draft or Free Agency whatever works out best ..

[Purple bruise]

My point is this, many may disagree, flame away. Everyone working in the Vikings front office and on their coaching staff knows infinitely more than anyone posting on this board who's job is not football. They also have access to immediate information that is not available to us, both on the existing players and on the players they scout. Many of them dedicate their lives to making our favorite team better. We don't, this is an avocation for us. They picked Christian Ponder for a reason, whether some of us like it or not. I do not know enough about his career at Florida State to know how much of a reach he was at 12, at this point I do not care. I only care about results on the field. And the fact of the matter is he started 16 games for a team that went 10-6 and made the playoffs. Could a Sage Rosenfels type have done better. Maybe, but Rosenfels has never been a consistent NFL starter who led a team anywhere so that's a tough sell for me. I'm happy to have "Check Down Charlie" start 2013 as the undisputed starter and expect he will be the starter to finish the season too. As a fan, I was highly critical of his play mid-season, but I have to change my tune when they make the playoffs. A team does not make the playoffs in spite of its QB. His play was especially impressive the last 7 games, going 5-2 without Percy Harvin. We could easily have a hidden gem developing that with a true #1 receiver and PH back, matures into an excellent QB. It is also notable that those QBs taken before him, with the exception of Cam Newton (#1 overall so not in the same class) notably Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert have done little to nothing so far in their careers. It is also worth noting that even the great Peyton Manning, who no one would ever compare to Christian Ponder, threw an across the body interception very similar to Ponder's INT in the first Green Bay game that cost his team their season. It's a complicated business the NFL, so give some credit sometimes, please.

Great post

[Purple bruise]

I don't discount anything. Just because he finished on a 1 game high note doesn't mean he suddenly turned the corner. Do you discount all the bad starts he had leading up to that final game? Which Ponder do you believe is the real Ponder? To me that final game was the exception and not the norm.

I really hope he proves me wrong next year. I'd much rather eat crow than go through another 3 year project or decade of stop gaps. But I refuse to be content with just having a warm body out there that can hand the ball to AD.

I would say that it was more than a 1 game high note but if that is the only improvement that you saw then so be it. Seems as though the coaching staff, GM and players, from the comments that I have heard and read, tend to stongly disagree with you as do I.
We will see what next year brings but I suspect that if I were you I would stock up on crow tenderizer.

[Mothman]

So, the Vikes beat the Niners with Alex Smith earlier in the season... do you think we would beat them with Kaepernick if we had met in the playoffs? Hmmm.... I don't think so.

It's difficult to say. Different team, different matchups, different game... I doubt the Vikes would have gone to SF and defeated what's essentially a better team but as good as Kaepernick looked last night, he hardly makes them unbeatable. They were blown out at Seattle a few weeks ago, 42-13, and Kaepernick was their QB in that game too.

For those who defend Ponder with fervor, take a good look at Kaepernick's poise, decision-making, accuracy and arm strength, plus the bonus that he is an insanely good runner as well. He hasn't needed two years to figure out the game and he looks light years better than our QB.

If that isn't enough, look at Russell Wilson tomorrow and tell me again why Ponder needs a third year to prove himself.

Because every player is different and the Vikes don't have a better alternative. If they go out and get one then I think most of us would be open to a change. Keep in mind, some of these other QBs are playing in different situations, behind different lines and with different receiving targets. All of that stuff makes a difference and some of them may simply be better players than Ponder will ever become. Ponder showed poise, accuracy, good decision-making and more than enough arm strength when the Vikings beat the Packers too. Of course, the grass is always greener...

[Purple bruise]

Jim makes some good points and I agree but would add that If Kaepernick keeps running he will suffer the same fate as Vick and now RG3 has. I like the kid a whole lot. He is Joe Webb plus he can throw. I would say that he does have a much better O-line and ten times better receivers than the Vikes have. We will have to wait and see which Kaepernick shows up in the next game, the one that was crushed by the Seahawks or the one who destroyed the Peckers. If you look at his numbers 17-31 2tds. and a pick 6 not that impressive but I am pulling for him

[Purple bruise]

At this point I am willing to bring another and let them compete for the Job and see who wins ,
Draft or Free Agency whatever works out best ..

I would agree 100%. If the Vikes can find a better option at QB then I would be quite happy. My hopes are to put the best players on the field and if that means a change at QB then so be it.

[Mothman]

Again I see where you're coming from, but Eli had more of that "it" factor going on than does Ponder. I remember watching Eli play and you could tell he had the skills to be special. Maybe it was his pedigree, hell it didn't hurt being the younger brother of Peyton after all. With Ponder, he seems to be broke between the ears, in that he doesn't seem to be learning or fixing he flaws, and when you take into consideration that that was suppose to be one of his strengths, it doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence.

Sure, but people were saying the same thing about Eli, especially during his fourth season, when he threw 20 INTs. Of course, by the end of that season he was a Super Bowl MVP.

It looks to me like Ponder is learning and fixing his flaws but that doesn't happen overnight. After the disaster in GB this year, he did a much better job of making good decisions with the ball, throwing it away when nothing was there, taking what was there from the defense, stepping into his throws, etc. He came out of a stretch of 4 games in which he threw 4 TDs and 4 INTs (with no rushing TDs) and finished with 4 games in which he threw 4 TDs, 1 INT and rushed for a TD. He managed games just the way the Vikes wanted him to, making plays, converting third downs and avoiding mistakes. His numbers certainly aren't spectacular over that stretch but they're efficient and that's what they were asking him to be: efficient. Anyway, the point is, if you look at his performances in the middle of the season and look at his performances late in the season, it does look like he's fixing his flaws. They aren't completely fixed but there was pretty clear progress.

I could throw Occams razor at you here but I won't lol. But people don't necessarily compare Ponder to Jackson just to insult Ponder or because it's a quick way to prove their point, but because he's an example of our most recent failed QB experiment. Ponder gives people a feeling of deja vu. We're having the same debates and the community is just as divided. And as it turns out, the stats are very similar as well and you can't just ignore that. But that's not the only thing I'm looking at. TJack had some poor mechanics and consistency problems he could never get fixed and I see Ponder struggling to fix his poor mechanics, and he's very inconsistent as well. And lets be honest, his deep ball is woefully inaccurate. Next to Webb, probably the most inaccurate deep ball I've seen in the pros.

We'll have to disagree about his deep ball. I don't think it's anywhere near that bad, although it needs work.

And as far as improvement goes, he had 6 more starts this year than last so naturally his totals have improved across the board, but when you look at the averages, the improvements don't look that great and in some cases he regressed. TD% and average per attempt were lower this year than last.

Yes, but TD% and average per attempt are stats that can have as much to do with playcalling as performance. His TD/INT ratio is better, his completion percentage is better, his QB rating is better, his INT % is down, his sack % is down ... those changes aren't simply due to playing more games. They indicate genuine improvement.

When you look at his intangibles, he's still making the same mistakes.

But he's making fewer of them. QBs always make mistakes. That's inevitable.

I'll grant him the 3rd year, but if it's the same old same, I hope we have a better backup plan.

I hope so too but Ponder is under very harsh, unforgiving scrutiny from a fan base desperate to have a star QB and with that desperation, I think there's a certain loss of perspective and a strong tendency to focus on the negative. I'm not sold on him either but he's not as bad as he's often made out to be and he has shown improvement.

[Mothman]

I disagree with your opening statement, but agree with the rest of your post.

Out of the final 4 games, the only one that can even be considered above average was the final game vs the Packers. The other 3 were pathetic by NFL standards. He did have a good 1st half vs Houston, but regressed to his old self in the 2nd half.

CHI - 91 yards 0 TD 1 INT
STL - 131 yards 0 TD 0 INT
HOU - 174 yards 1 TD 0 INT
GB - 234 yards 3 TD 0 INT

I hardly call that 4 good games. I call it 1 decent game and 3 games where everyone ignored Ponders performance because we won.

Looking at those bottom line stats is too simplistic. When assessing performance, we have to consider what he was asked to do and how well he executed. Context matters.

[MrPurplenGold]

I disagree with your opening statement, but agree with the rest of your post.

Out of the final 4 games, the only one that can even be considered above average was the final game vs the Packers. The other 3 were pathetic by NFL standards. He did have a good 1st half vs Houston, but regressed to his old self in the 2nd half.

CHI - 91 yards 0 TD 1 INT
STL - 131 yards 0 TD 0 INT
HOU - 174 yards 1 TD 0 INT
GB - 234 yards 3 TD 0 INT

I hardly call that 4 good games. I call it 1 decent game and 3 games where everyone ignored Ponders performance because we won.

what about his first 6 games where he threw for over 200 yards 4 times, had a QBR over 65 three times and a rating of
over 85 four times, a completion % over 65 four times and never threw more int's than TD's

CMP ATT YDS CMP%AVG LNG TD INT QBR RAT
JAC 20 27 270 74.1 10.00 29 0 0 66.2 105.5
IND 27 35 245 77.1 7.00 20 2 0 46.1 114.6
SF 21 35 198 60.0 5.66 24 2 0 89.9 94.7
DET 16 26 111 61.5 4.27 27 0 0 64.8 71.2
TEN 25 35 258 71.4 7.37 45 2 2 78.6 87.6
WSH 35 52 352 67.3 6.77 23 2 2 37.3 83.2

this season Ponder had a QBR over 70 six times and a QBR over 60 eight times; he also had a QBR under 50 seven times. Ponder ranked 17th in overall QBR which is around the average mark for QB's. He finished 21st in passer rating ABOVE Mathew Stafford. He's had more positive QBR games than he has had negative ones. He needs to work on his consistency, and if he can continue to improve he should be able to turn into an above average QB.

[Reignman]

Looking at those bottom line stats is too simplistic. When assessing performance, we have to consider what he was asked to do and how well he executed. Context matters.

Oh trust me, I'm not just looking at stats when it comes to Ponder, I've actually watched him play. And I agree that context matters so we have to take into consideration why the coaches haven't asked him to do much. Part of that reason is because we have AD, but the other part is because he's not a Ryan, Wilson, Flacco, or even a Josh Freeman for that matter. Ponder is currently at the bottom echelon of this league.

I would say that it was more than a 1 game high note but if that is the only improvement that you saw then so be it. Seems as though the coaching staff, GM and players, from the comments that I have heard and read, tend to stongly disagree with you as do I. We will see what next year brings but I suspect that if I were you I would stock up on crow tenderizer.

Well the coaches and GM have a lot riding on this kid so they might be a little biased. And the fact that he wasn't asked to do much tells me they don't disagree as much as you think. Yeah we have a ton of confidence in the kid, but we don't want him to have to throw all that often.

what about his first 6 games where he threw for over 200 yards 4 times, had a QBR over 65 three times and a rating of over 85 four times, a completion % over 65 four times and never threw more int's than TD's

All that tells me is he regressed. Where did that Ponder go anyway? If you flipped the script and he had his better games in the 2nd half of the season I'd feel a heck of a lot better. As it stands, the short game with PH was working pretty good early, then teams figured him out, took it away, and he has struggled ever since. If you don't have a QB that can throw the ball down field then you better hope your RB can challenge Dickersons record every year.

The ultimate goal here is to make and win a super bowl, not be a 10-6 wildcard team. For those of you that think you see something in Ponder, do you really see him leading us to a Lombardi, or are you just hopeful? At best I see Ponder as an 8-8, 10-6 type starter in this league, and that's just not going to get it done.

[mansquatch]

Ponder did have some of his better games in the 2nd half of the season, most specifically December. That is the sign of a guy (and a team) that is on the rise, and coming off a 3-13 year last year, is exactly what you want to see as a fan.

Ponder had a decent start to the season. Harvin got hurt as Ponder was starting his sophmore slump. The slump sucked, no question there. However, in December Ponder started coming out of his slump and had argueably his best game as a pro in week 17 in a game with huge playoff implications against the class of the division.

Ponder isn' perfect, but he has shown us that he can fix his issues and grow as a player. He isn't where want him to be yet, but he has done enough IMO to deserve another season as the starter to show how much more he can improve.

Folks that are down on Ponder rest their opinion on the idea that they've seen all he has to give. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I find this one unpersuasive given the product I saw over the course of the season.

[Mothman]

Oh trust me, I'm not just looking at stats when it comes to Ponder, I've actually watched him play. And I agree that context matters so we have to take into consideration why the coaches haven't asked him to do much. Part of that reason is because we have AD, but the other part is because he's not a Ryan, Wilson, Flacco, or even a Josh Freeman for that matter.Ponder is currently at the bottom echelon of this league.

I have absolutely no doubt that a big part of what the coaches did and didn't ask Ponder to do was determined by the performance of the players around him. There was a justifiable lack of faith in Ponder's targets. Numerous reports before and during the season implied the same conclusion. Musgrave made a big point prior to the season about what Simpson's ability to stretch the field would bring to the offense. It was something the Vikes clearly felt they lacked and needed. When it didn't really materialize, and when every WR not named Harvin struggled to do much of anything until Wright came off the bench, I think it clearly had an impact on the playcalling. Ryan, Flacco, Wilson and Freeman all had the downfield threats Ponder lacked. That absolutely made a difference.

Look, it's not as if the coaches didn't ask Ponder to make some aggressive downfield throws. He did, sometimes effectively, sometimes not so much. However, the receivers rarely won those battles and the more it became evident that they weren't going to win many of them, the more the offense emphasized AD and a controlled passing game that could move the chains. I'm not going to suggest some of Ponder's limitations weren't part of that choice. They undoubtedly were and I'll bet a mid-season stretch of disastrous pass protection breakdowns contributed too. Other than keeping defenses honest and trying to get an occasional big play (which they kept trying to do) there's not much reason to keep running slower-developing, low percentage pass plays to targets that struggle to create separation, behind a line that struggles to give the QB time. Even with a much better QB that wouldn't make a lot of sense!

The best way to land a QB in the lower echelon of NFL passers is to give him a dearth of quality targets and shaky pass protection.

Well the coaches and GM have a lot riding on this kid so they might be a little biased. And the fact that he wasn't asked to do much tells me they don't disagree as much as you think. Yeah we have a ton of confidence in the kid, but we don't want him to have to throw all that often.

Think about that: if they truly had confidence in him but didn't want him to throw that often, what's the most logical reason for that? A pass is useless if it isn't caught. A lack of faith in the players at the other end of the passes might have had a lot to do with the Vikes strategy. After all fans, broadcasters and reporters close to the team talked about the the receivers inability to win battles and get open all year.

All that tells me is he regressed. Where did that Ponder go anyway? If you flipped the script and he had his better games in the 2nd half of the season I'd feel a heck of a lot better.

That Ponder was back again late in the season.

As it stands, the short game with PH was working pretty good early, then teams figured him out, took it away, and he has struggled ever since.

Again, take away his best target and he struggles. Is it that hard to connect the dots?

The ultimate goal here is to make and win a super bowl, not be a 10-6 wildcard team. For those of you that think you see something in Ponder, do you really see him leading us to a Lombardi, or are you just hopeful? At best I see Ponder as an 8-8, 10-6 type starter in this league, and that's just not going to get it done.

I see him as an erratic, developing young QB whose ceiling isn't clear but who desperately needs better receivers. People love to talk about how a team can't win a Super Bowl without a franchise QB but I doubt anybody could win one with Harvin injured and Simpson, Jenkins and Wright as their top 3 WRs. It would take one hell of a defense and and running game to get that job done!