Check Down Charlie

[Mothman]

Here's the deal everyone:

Despite a couple bad throws by Ponder (which is about the average of every quarterback in the NFL), Ponder put us in position to be competitive in this game against the Bears. Unfortunately, our other players weren't able to do some pretty basic requirements of their jobs.

1st Quarter:
Peterson fumbles at the 32 yard line. Chicago gets a TD within 6 plays. (Bears -7)
- You can blame Peterson for fumbling or the defense for allowing the Bears to convert on a 3rd and 6 and then get a TD.

2nd Quarter:
Vikings drive 50 yards into the redzone. On a 3rd and 6 play, Ponder lofts a perfectly placed ball in the endzone for Rudolph to grab. Rudolph gets two hands on the ball but isn't able to hold on. (Vikings +7)
- Looked like a decent play by the Chicago DB by hitting Rudolph's arm right after Rudolph grabbed the ball, but Rudolph still has to come down with that since he had two hands on it!

4th Quarter:
Vikings have some momentum and are in the midst of a 70 yard drive. On 3rd and 2 (when the coaches should have called AD's number) Ponder scrambles left and floats a ball to Wright in the corner of the endzone. The ball hits both hands, but Wright drops it. (Vikings +7)
- There's some pressure on Wright in the corner with two DBs running at him, but neither hit him hard and he should have come down with the ball since it he hand two hands on it.
- Ponder rushes the following 4th down play, but really, we should have already had the TD on the 3rd down play if Wright makes an average catch in the endzone.

Had these plays been made (or not made in AD's case), they wouldn't have been spectacular highlights - they would have been pretty mundane and average plays. AD doesn't fumble but gains 2 yards. Rudolph out-jumps all the Chicago DBs and comes down with a TD. Wright catches a TD in the back corner of the endzone. Fairly mediocre plays to expect out of professional football players at our skilled positions.

Sure, Ponder made some mistakes, too. He threw an INT that led to a Bears touchdown, he missed an open receiver on the 4th down play, and he took a couple sacks. But even including his mistakes (and excluding the other 7-8 drops by Vikings WRs) - the three aforementioned plays would have made the game Vikings 10 (+7+7) = 24 and Bears 28 (-7) = 21 (Vikings 24, Bears 21). Now, I'm not sure how exactly the game would have played out, but it would have been nice to watch that version of the game play out where our skilled players make non-spectacular plays led by Ponder.

We could expect Ponder to play a perfect game against a divisional opponent on the road, but really, what's a more reasonable/realistic expectation...
Our second-year QB to not throw an INT against the Bears defense?
OR
Our WRs to catch the ball if they get two hands on it and our stud RB to not fumble twice in Bears territory?

I'll go with option #2.

Great post!

[mansquatch]

There was a quote on the news yesterday evening: Great QBs make Avereage WR look great. Mundane WR make Average QB looks awful.

I thought that summed up the passing game on Sunday nicely. 9 dropped passes... As the poster above notes, 2 could have been for TDs. Simpson dropped 3 that hit him in the hands/numbers. Ponder made mistakes, not excusing them, but seems pretty short sighted to blame him for how little his recievers are helping him.

[losperros]

If this has already been posted, then I apologize. I looked for it on the board but didn't see it.

Anyway, this is part of Keven Seifert's "Free Head Exam" of Ponder and the WRs:

Here's a perfect illustration of the Vikings' downfield woes this season. Ponder threw eight passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield. He overthrew three of them, according to ESPN Stats & Information, and four of them were batted down or tipped by the Bears' defense. That litany speaks to Ponder's more-than-occasional inaccuracy as well as the difficulty his receivers have getting separation. To be clear, the Bears are excellent in coverage and entered the game with the NFL's best defense on such throws based on opponent's Total Quarterback Rating. But to complete a downfield pass you typically need accuracy and either separation or superior ball skills from the receiver. The Vikings haven't had any of that on a consistent basis this season.

More at: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... vikings-41

Personally, I agree with Seifert, including the slam he throws at Jerome Simpson in the article.

Seems to me that the Vikings passing game is broken across the board. That doesn't provide an excuse for Christian Ponder. In fact, it doesn't provide excuses for anybody.

[Demi]

But when I pointed this out earlier this season it was shouted down as nonsense. And me seeing things.

Past 10-15 yards Ponder just can't throw accurate passes on anything approaching a consistent basis. Now and then a rainbow lands in the right spot. But more often it's not even catch-able. The Oline and receivers should receive some blame, but those throws wouldn't even be catch-able by Brandon Marshall or Megatron. And dropped passes were an issue this game, but I don't recall this level of drops in other games. And he still looked terrible.

Forget stats, watch the guy play. That tells you everything you need to know. Russell Wilson, Kaepernick, there are plenty of other less thought of QBs who look significantly better in every facet of the game. It wouldn't be difficult at all to find a QB upgrade over every QB on this roster in the draft, and not just the first round. Not even considering free agency.

There needs to be a change next season.

[Just Me]

But when I pointed this out earlier this season it was shouted down as nonsense. And me seeing things.

I think that's a bit overstated, but I'll remind you that when Ponder looked pretty good after playing the 49ers we all agreed that we wanted to have a larger sampling of his games before we came to any conclusion. Now the facts are that his stats are better over the 11 games he played this season when compared to the 11 games he played last season. Does that mean he will mature into the QB we are needing (or wanting)? It's looking less likely, to be perfectly honest, but the way some are critiquing his performance you'd think he regressed from last year, and he hasn't. That's just the facts.

Past 10-15 yards Ponder just can't throw accurate passes on anything approaching a consistent basis.

I highlighted the key word in your post. I'm going to have to agree with you on that one. He has shown he can throw the deep ball. Consistently? No, I'm with you on that.

Now and then a rainbow lands in the right spot. But more often it's not even catch-able. The Oline and receivers should receive some blame, but those throws wouldn't even be catch-able by Brandon Marshall or Megatron. And dropped passes were an issue this game, but I don't recall this level of drops in other games. And he still looked terrible.

We'll disagree on that. Ponder has looked both great and terrible this year. I can't think of any QB that is going to look great when his receivers are dropping balls that hit them in the hands.

Forget stats, watch the guy play. That tells you everything you need to know. Russell Wilson, Kaepernick, there are plenty of other less thought of QBs who look significantly better in every facet of the game. It wouldn't be difficult at all to find a QB upgrade over every QB on this roster in the draft, and not just the first round. Not even considering free agency.

There needs to be a change next season.

If Ponder is truly that bad, then our #2 and/or our #3 could come in right now and do a better job. I don't believe that's true. I think Webb could come in for 1 game and put Ponder to shame and then he'd stink it up worse than Ponder every game after that. Let's finish the year. If he plays the last 5 games and they look like his most recent one, then we need to admit failure and move on. FWIW I'm still saying we take Green Bay (at Home) and the Rams to finish 8-8. I think the Bears sweep us this year...

[Demi]

If Ponder is truly that bad, then our #2 and/or our #3 could come in right now and do a better job.

If we had any QBs worth mentioning, they could. Even Sage. But we don't. We have a wide receiver, and a scrub with a rocket arm that multiple teams have already given up on. There are lenty of starters and even some backups that could come in and do a better job...too bad none of them are on our roster...

[hibbingviking]

Vikings should have drafted andy dalton

[purplehaze]

If we had any QBs worth mentioning, they could. Even Sage. But we don't. We have a wide receiver, and a scrub with a rocket arm that multiple teams have already given up on. There are lenty of starters and even some backups that could come in and do a better job...too bad none of them are on our roster...

This is funny stuff. Someone please answer me this. HOW DO WE KNOW THEY CANNOT DO BETTER? Oh yeah, because they do not look as good in practice right. lol. They have not even had 3 games under their belt let alone 21 games. Did anyone on this board believe that Kaepernick would be outperforming Smith? We can speculate all we want about how much Webb sucks but we do not know. All speculation right now. The only way we will find out is if Check Down gets his block knocked off from running chicken from the pocket. He can continue to perform sub 60 QB ratings but Frazier is too ignorant and gutless to make a change.

[losperros]

This is funny stuff. Someone please answer me this. HOW DO WE KNOW THEY CANNOT DO BETTER? Oh yeah, because they do not look as good in practice right. lol. They have not even had 3 games under their belt let alone 21 games. Did anyone on this board believe that Kaepernick would be outperforming Smith? We can speculate all we want about how much Webb sucks but we do not know. All speculation right now. The only way we will find out is if Check Down gets his block knocked off from running chicken from the pocket. He can continue to perform sub 60 QB ratings but Frazier is too ignorant and gutless to make a change.

Reread Demi's post. I think he very adequately answered your question.

Regarding Webb (who I like), the problem is we do know Webb's history both as someone who came into games as a backup and when he started games. He simply can't throw all the passes and is too limited to be a franchise QB. Look at the declining trends in his performances from stepping in during a game and once opposing D coordinators game plan for him.

I think Ponder will and should finish the season as the starter. But if he can't cut it, I personally don't see any other franchise QB possibility on the present roster. YMMV.

[soflavike]

Regarding Webb (who I like), the problem is we do know Webb's history both as someone who came into games as a backup and when he started games. He simply can't throw all the passes and is too limited to be a franchise QB. Look at the declining trends in his performances from stepping in during a game and once opposing D coordinators game plan for him.

This has become a sort of urban legend. The only team that ever "shut him down" was Chicago. He still went 17/32 for 200 yds. and 2 TD's (passing) with 1 INT. The Vikes lost 17-13. They stopped him from running, but he threw the ball pretty well.

I documented all of Webb's regular-season appearances earlier in this thread. Webb has done very well in relief and as a starter... he is a different kind of threat and creates all kinds of problems for defenses. He has a waaaaaay stronger arm than Ponder and he's not chicken like Ponder... He is worth another look as our QB. We will never know what he can do if we don't play him. If he sucks, we know we have to move on and find two QB's.

[Infinity]

I agree with this. What we know of Webb is such a small sample size, especially compared to what we know of Ponder, that we don't really know what we have in Webb. I mean if he is such a bad QB, why the hell is he not playing as a WR? I know the dude can't be bad at WR. I've seen him run and jump...

Exactly. Why not put him in for a half or something to see what he can do. I also agree with your idea to put him in as WR. He would be great for some trick plays to confuse the defense and make our team less predictable

[Infinity]

Another thing about Webb is that when he gets the ball, you never know what he's going to do with it. Whereas with Ponder, when he gets the ball, you can expect him to throw a short to medium pass.

[Cliff]

I agree with this. What we know of Webb is such a small sample size, especially compared to what we know of Ponder, that we don't really know what we have in Webb. I mean if he is such a bad QB, why the hell is he not playing as a WR? I know the dude can't be bad at WR. I've seen him run and jump...

His sample size at WR suggests he's pretty horrible at it.

As far as why does Ponder get more reps than Webb? To me that reason is two fold. To start with teams are going to give more time to the 1st round pick over a 6th round pick. That's just reality.

Second, what we don't need is another mystery QB. If you sit Ponder on the bench you leave a mystery. Ponder is either the answer at QB or he isn't ... we're not going to find out with him on the bench.

Webb is a 6th round developmental player who has split reps between WR and QB most of his career. He might be the answer, but the team needs to know for sure if Ponder is the answer or not first. The team has already basically said they feel it take 3 years to figure that out.

If Ponder can't level out his play then we'll see Webb in due time, but I would guess it won't be until about this time next year.

[soflavike]

Second, what we don't need is another mystery QB. If you sit Ponder on the bench you leave a mystery. Ponder is either the answer at QB or he isn't ... we're not going to find out with him on the bench.

After 22 starts, Ponder isn't really much of a mystery anymore.

He has a weak arm (and he knows it).
He is not very accurate, even on short passes.
He stares down receivers and fails to find open ones.
He doesn't have good pocket presence.
He crumbles under pressure.

He does have a hot girlfriend, though.

[purplehaze]

After 22 starts, Ponder isn't really much of a mystery anymore.

He has a weak arm (and he knows it).
He is not very accurate, even on short passes.
He stares down receivers and fails to find open ones.
He doesn't have good pocket presence.
He crumbles under pressure.

He does have a hot girlfriend, though.

Exacty, mystery solved with him.