How to Field an Ineffective Offense

[CalVike]

Post deleted. Dave

[CalVike]

To try to stop the hammering of my arguments .. Here's the Vikings 2nd quarter ...

First drive
1st & 10 MN 20 .. Pass to Harvin for 32
AD for 11
Short pass incomplete Simpson. Roughing the passer penalty.
Pass to Ellison for 5.
AD for -1
Pass to Harvin for 18 TD

Second drive
1st & 10 on 13. Pass to Harvin for 4
Deep pass to Simpson incomplete
Pass to Harvin for 13
Peterson for 6. Fumbles.

Third drive
1st & 10 on 20. AD for no gain.
Ponder deep pass incomplete to Simpson.
Ponder to Rudolph for 12
AD for 5
Ponder sacked for -7
Ponder to Simpson for 33
Ponder short pass to Harvin incomplete
Ponder pass to AD for 4
Ponder deep pass to Harvin incomplete
Walsh FG

I am sorry. I am just not seeing how avoiding AD was the problem. Last drive of first quarter ended with Simpson fumble on a high percentage slant play. First drive of 2nd qtr was a TD pass to Harvin. 2nd drive of 2nd quarter ended on an AD fumble on a first down play.

Maybe in hindsight on the last drive of the 2nd quarter that ended in the FG they might have ran AD more. But they had a 33 yard completion to Simpson in that series. And they targeted Harvin on two of the three downs prior to the FG. I consider shots to Harvin equal to AD runs in this offense. I just don't see any evidence that moving away from AD was a problem in the first half.

Edit: AD had 10 runs and caught one pass in the first half.

[CalVike]

Oh good, another thread about this. I could not disagree more. The Vikes trailed 10-0 after one, 20-10 after two, 30-17 after three, and 36-17 after four. This is not the game where the "let's run AD more" theory holds water. The two first half fumbles, one by the man himself, killed it.

Close games where the team does not turnover might be won with such a myopic, predictable, downright boring approach to NFL offense. Thursday was not such a night. The team failed to execute on every level. Musgrave did not call complex pass plays. He just thought his O-Line could block and his star RB might pick up a blitz, oh, let's say ever. Let's hope next week they pick it up on every level!

I'd like to have parts of this post back, notably the first two lines and the underlying tone that I have a problem with Adrian Peterson, the team's best player. Hopefully my last post explained my position on this game better.

[losperros]

I'd like to have parts of this post back, notably the first two lines and the underlying tone that I have a problem with Adrian Peterson, the team's best player. Hopefully my last post explained my position on this game better.

No problemo, Dave. Keep in mind that I was merely uncertain about what you were saying. It's not like I thought you wanted to bench Peterson or something.

On another note, I guess I'm just venting lately because I wish the Vikings would find their offensive identity and go with it. It seems to me that the offense is too schizophrenic and the coaching is possibly caving into media requests instead of realizing what works and doesn't work for the team. But then, what do I know? I'd sure like to hear what gets discussed behind closed doors when Frazier meets with his staff.

[J. Kapp 11]

To try to stop the hammering of my arguments .. Here's the Vikings 2nd quarter ...

First drive
1st & 10 MN 20 .. Pass to Harvin for 32
AD for 11
Short pass incomplete Simpson. Roughing the passer penalty.
Pass to Ellison for 5.
AD for -1
Pass to Harvin for 18 TD

Second drive
1st & 10 on 13. Pass to Harvin for 4
Deep pass to Simpson incomplete
Pass to Harvin for 13
Peterson for 6. Fumbles.

Third drive
1st & 10 on 20. AD for no gain.
Ponder deep pass incomplete to Simpson.
Ponder to Rudolph for 12
AD for 5
Ponder sacked for -7
Ponder to Simpson for 33
Ponder short pass to Harvin incomplete
Ponder pass to AD for 4
Ponder deep pass to Harvin incomplete
Walsh FG

I am sorry. I am just not seeing how avoiding AD was the problem. Last drive of first quarter ended with Simpson fumble on a high percentage slant play. First drive of 2nd qtr was a TD pass to Harvin. 2nd drive of 2nd quarter ended on an AD fumble on a first down play.

Maybe in hindsight on the last drive of the 2nd quarter that ended in the FG they might have ran AD more. But they had a 33 yard completion to Simpson in that series. And they targeted Harvin on two of the three downs prior to the FG. I consider shots to Harvin equal to AD runs in this offense. I just don't see any evidence that moving away from AD was a problem in the first half.

Edit: AD had 10 runs and caught one pass in the first half.

First, my apologies for tone. I was tired and irritable. Plus, I spent $350 on game tickets for THAT. Ugh.

I was talking about early in the game. The first three drives. Every time AP carried the ball, we had good results. Every time Ponder dropped back to pass, it was pretty much a disaster. As is the case with just about every team these days, the first plays of the game are scripted. I think that's the crux of my frustration. Passing the ball wasn't working. Running the ball was. Yet we passed, apparently because that was what the script called for. Before you knew it, we were down 10.

The whole point for me is that it sometimes seems like we fans -- and to a degree Musgrave -- are so worried about the Vikings being as good a passing team as New Orleans or Green Bay that we forget what Adrian Peterson gives us. And that is the ability to run the ball like no other team, the ability for every running play to be a potential touchdown, and the ability to play-action pass if we run successfully. Right now, at this moment in the Vikings' current evolution, we are simply not a high-flying passing team. We're just not. Until we have the pieces in place, we need to do what we do well.

[BGM]

I agree wholeheartedly about just giving the ball to AD in this one. But I'm 99% sure Musgrave saw the stacked boxes and figured they could exploit a team practically begging them to pass. While it's a good thing that he had the confidence in putting the ball in Ponder's hands, there should've been a point where he recognized even stacked fronts weren't any match for AD's carries that seemed to always net at least 3-4 yards a clip and he was playing away from our biggest strength (and what was clearly working FAR more than Ponder in this one).

I agree wholeheartedly. There is a fine line between playing to your own strengths and adjusting to what the defense gives you. The great coaches commit to either one or the other, or have an uncanny knack for doing both. When AD is "on", and I am convinced he was during this last game, you HAVE to keep pounding him through the defense. It opens up so many opportunities later in the game when you need them. I don't think Ponder's confidence is so fragile and I believe he understands his role on this team... focusing on a strong running game utilizing the best RB in the league is a no-brainer.

[losperros]

The whole point for me is that it sometimes seems like we fans -- and to a degree Musgrave -- are so worried about the Vikings being as good a passing team as New Orleans or Green Bay that we forget what Adrian Peterson gives us. And that is the ability to run the ball like no other team, the ability for every running play to be a potential touchdown, and the ability to play-action pass if we run successfully. Right now, at this moment in the Vikings' current evolution, we are simply not a high-flying passing team. We're just not. Until we have the pieces in place, we need to do what we do well.

You're absolutely on target, in my view. This isn't a Culpepper to Moss big play passing offense anymore. The offensive stars are Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin, and they're the guys who have the best chance to help the team score. This shouldn't be rocket science either. Seems to me that leaning on AD and Harvin should be obvious, especially given how monumentally unsuccessful the other receivers have been, aside from Rudolph (who shouldn't be disappearing during games either).

As I said before, I really believe Musgrave is giving in to outside pressure about the need for more passing, including deeper passes. It's pounding a square peg into a round hole at this point.

[Mothman]

PART TWO

SECOND QUARTER
5th possession

1-10-MIN 20 Ponder hits Harvin on a quick screen for a 32 yard gain. Jenkins gets a great block on the outside to free Harvin and Kalil pulls out and runs downfield with Percy, clearing the way for the big gain. Great execution.
1-10-TB 48 Peterson explodes through a hole on the left side for 11 yards. Johnson and Kalil both get great blocks to open the hole. AD does the rest.
1-10-TB 37 Ponder attempts a quick slant to Simpson but the play is blown up when DT Roy Miller gets through Sullivan enough to commit an illegal hands to the face penalty against Ponder. Miller's hand pushing Ponder's head as he threw was enough to disrupt the play but the penalty obviously resulted in a first down. The announcers didn't comment on it and I'm no coach but it seemed to me that Ponder's drop was a little too short on the play, despite the need to get the throw out quick. For all I know, he did it by the book.
1-10-TB 22 Play action fake, bootleg throw to Ellison on the right side. Nicely executed play for a gain of 5.
2-5-TB 17 Handoff to Peterson, who is tackled in the backfield for a loss. #93 went right by Kalil to slow Peterson down in the backfield and a few other Bucs cleaned up.
3-7-TB 19 Ponder, from the shotgun, throws a perfect fade to Harvin in the front corner of the endzone for a TD. Harvin lined up slot right. TB employed man-to-man coverage. As Mayock pointed out on the broadcast, the outside right receiver (Simpson) squatted on his route, giving Harvin all the room he needed to go to the corner. Beautiful.

6th possession
1-10-MIN 13 Ponder, in the shotgun again, throws a quick swing pass to Harvin in the left flat. Gain of 4.
2-6-MIN 18 Ponder lined up behind center. Bucs blitz, Peterson picks it up but lets the defender get across his body a bit and Ponder throws a beauty deep down left sideline for Simpson. It's a catchable pass and Simpson has a step on the defender but despite a good effort, he lets the ball go through his hands. It's an impressive throw, especially because the blitzed makes it difficult for Ponder to completely step into it.
3-6-MN 18 Ponder in the shotgun again. Bucs blitz again. Peterson does a great job of picking it up this time and Ponder steps up in the pocket and throws a dart to Harvin the right flat. Percy takes it for a first down.
1-10-MN 29 Handoff to Peterson. AD follows Felton through a hole right up the middle (behind Sullivan), spins for extra yardage and has the ball stripped by Barber. An unfortunate result on what would have been an 8-9 yard gain.

7th possession

1-10-MIN 20 Rudolph in motion from left to right, handoff to peterson, runs right behind Rudolph into a pile of Bucs defenders. No gain.
2-10-MN 20 Shotgun formation. Ponder takes the snap, pump fakes to Ellison (who is open short on the right) and throws deep right to Simpson. Pass overthrown.
3-10-MN 20 Shotgun again. Bucs overload blitz from the left. Sullivan, Johnson and Kalil adjust, turn left and pick it up. Ponder sidesteps left as Sullivan's blitzer carries him into the backfield and throws a strike downfield to Rudolph for a first down.
1-10 MN 32 Two TE set, handoff to Peterson who runs left for a 5 yard gain.
2-5 MN 37 Ponder takes snap, turns to execute a play action fake to Peterson and is sacked before he can even turn back. #50 goes right past Kalil's inside shoulder and blows the play up for a big loss.
3-12 MN 30 Shotgun formation. Pressure forces Ponder to sidestep left. He sets and throws for Simpson, who catches the pass downfield for a big gain of 33. Simpson really elevated to make the catch. Great play!
1-10-TB 37 Shotgun. Harvin comes in motion from the outside right and settles inside, behind Loadholt. Ponder throws a quick swing pass out in front of Harvin, incomplete. Bad throw.
2-10-TB 37 Shotgun. Harvin in motion across the formation from left to right. Barber blitzes (perfectly timed) from the left and comes in untouched, forcing an immediate throw. Ponder, backpedaling, throws a screen to Peterson. Johnson misses a block that would have sprung AD. Gain of 4.
3-6-TB 33 Shotgun. Barber blitzes again and runs right past Peterson who is going out on a route. I'm not sure what AD's duty is on that play but I would think he should pick that up. Ponder sets, throws and is hit by Barber from behind. The pass goes deep down the right sideline to Harvin's back shoulder. He catches it and has it ripped away from him but the play is dead because PH was out of bounds.
4-6-TB33 Walsh connects on a long FG.

8th possession

1-10-MN 25 (25 seconds left in half) Ponder runs a bootleg right, has Harvin wide open in front of him at the 28 and inexplicably tries to force the ball to Simpson in double coverage at the 40. Terrible decision.
2-10-MN 25 Handoff to Gerhart for a 5 or 6 yard gain to end the half.


It was a mixed quarter for the offense but much better than the first quarter. Ponder actually performed very well other than that bad decision on the last possession and the poor short pass to Harvin. He responded well to pressure, converted 3rd downs and only misfired on a few throws. The Vikes scored on 2 of the first 3 drives of the quarter, losing the ball on the other and bailing with little time remaining at the end of the half. Missed blocks and blitz pick ups were still a concern and the fumble was obviously costly but overall, the offense played much, much better than it did in the first quarter.

For those asking what Ponder does for this offense, the first 3 possessions of this quarter were a nice example of what he can do when he's on his game. He made plays under pressure, threw downfield well, read the defense, made good choices, etc.

[Mothman]

As I said before, I really believe Musgrave is giving in to outside pressure about the need for more passing, including deeper passes. It's pounding a square peg into a round hole at this point.

I'm not convinced he's giving in to outside pressure, Craig, although it's possible. I think he might simply be responding to what defenses have been doing against the Vikes. They're bringing 8 men in the box and daring the Vikes to beat man coverage on the outside so that's what they're trying to do... with mixed results.

Jim

[losperros]

PART TWO

For those asking what Ponder does for this offense, the first 3 possessions of this quarter were a nice example of what he can do when he's on his game. He made plays under pressure, threw downfield well, read the defense, made good choices, etc.

Thanks for the analysis, Jim.

Given what Ponder did in this quarter, it's weird is that he can't do it for an entire game. That's where the irritating inconsistency comes in.

[Mothman]

Thanks for the analysis, Jim.

What's weird is that lately Ponder can't seem to do for the offense what he did in this quarter that for an entire game.

Exactly. It's frustrating because he's still showing those glimpses of the good QB he could become. Considering how much he picked up his game between the first quarter and the second, I'm curious to look more closely at what happened to the passing game in the second half. I'm guessing some of it involved TB bringing more heat as their lead grew and the Vikes became more one-dimensional on offense.

I'm glad you enjoyed the analysis. It's fun, if a little time-consuming but I'm learning from it and hopefully my brief descriptions of plays are at least a little bit enlightening. I'm trying!

[losperros]

I'm not convinced he's giving in to outside pressure, Craig, although it's possible. I think he might simply be responding to what defenses have been doing against the Vikes. They're bringing 8 men in the box and daring the Vikes to beat man coverage on the outside so that's what they're trying to do... with mixed results.

That might be true but then it's even stranger that Musgrave didn't stick with Peterson, since AD's running was working against the Bucs D. It didn't matter what the Bucs D was giving the Vikings offense. Peterson was having his way with them. Would Musgrave really stop that because he felt compelled to throw fade passes against a stacked box?

I hope the entire "take what the defense gives you" philosophy is replaced by "punish the defense with what works."

[Mothman]

That might be true but then it's even stranger that Musgrave didn't stick with Peterson, since AD's running was working against the Bucs D. It didn't matter what the Bucs D was giving the Vikings offense. Peterson was having his way with them. Would Musgrave really stop that because he felt compelled to throw fade passes against a stacked box?

Probably not. I'm inclined to go with Kapp's theory on that one: I'm betting those first 12 plays or so were scripted and Musgrave stuck to the script, despite the obvious success AD was having early.

Another theory: now that Simpson is available every week, maybe Musgrave is simply running the offense he wanted to run all season but didn't without his preferred deep threat on the outside.

You could be right: everyone from fans to pundits has been calling for the Vikes to throw downfield more and the beat reporters seem to be keeping a tally of how far Ponder's passes travel beyond the LoS every week so perhaps all of that is influencing Musgrave. I hope not.

I hope the entire "take what the defense gives you" philosophy is replaced by "punish the defense with what works."

Amen!

[psjordan]

And in the big scheme, "running AD more" is about as simplistic as a "supposed fix" can be.

Could we have run AD more to greater team success? Maybe. Who's to say that TB would not have adjusted to that strategy after 2-3 runs? And our answer would have been to throw the ball.

It's simply never that simple in the NFL. We need a balanced offense to succeed. We do not currently have that. We have a coaching staff/medical staff that do not want to overwork their $100M investment at RB just yet. I would have liked to have seen Toby run a few more times, but I don't have a huge issue with the play calling. We need to freaking execute.

I am OK with the amount AD is currently used, I am positive he is not 100% yet. We are not winning the SB this year. We need our QB and our D to get better, ignoring them in the game plan is not a great strategy beyond portions of one quarter of a game.

[Mothman]

And in the big scheme, "running AD more" is about as simplistic as a "supposed fix" can be.

Could we have run AD more to greater team success? Maybe. Who's to say that TB would not have adjusted to that strategy after 2-3 runs? And our answer would have been to throw the ball.

Yes, and the chances of success throwing the ball might have been greater depending on the defensive adjustment. I don't think anybody is saying anything as simplistic as "just run Peterson". As you wrote, the Vikes need a balanced offense. However, he had 17 yards on his first 3 carries alone and that was over 3 possessions. He didn't get the ball two plays in a row until the 4th possession, when he ripped off 22 yards on those two carries. The point people are attempting to get across is that if the defense was struggling to stop something early, the Vikes should have made them stop it instead of doing them the favor of repeatedly getting away from it.

It's simply never that simple in the NFL. We need a balanced offense to succeed. We do not currently have that. We have a coaching staff/medical staff that do not want to overwork their $100M investment at RB just yet. I would have liked to have seen Toby run a few more times, but I don't have a huge issue with the play calling. We need to freaking execute.

No argument there. That was a bigger problem than the playcalling.

I am OK with the amount AD is currently used, I am positive he is not 100% yet. We are not winning the SB this year. We need our QB and our D to get better, ignoring them in the game plan is not a great strategy beyond portions of one quarter of a game.

Again, I don't think anybody is suggesting they be ignored in the game plan. They're just saying that when the star RB is playing great, giving him the ball more than 15 or 16 times is a good idea. That's not exactly a revolutionary idea.