Run v Pass by Qtr NFCN

[CalVike]

Another interesting read by Kevin Seifert of ESPN.

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blog ... h&id=47698

The Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs are the only teams to run on a higher percentage of their first-quarter plays than the Minnesota Vikings. For the most part, the Vikings' play selection reflects the best balance in the division.

[Mothman]

Good stuff. Thanks for the link!

[Eli]

Here's the full sized story:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... by-quarter

The Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs are the only teams to run on a higher percentage of their first-quarter plays than the Minnesota Vikings.

That's not the most complementary company to keep. Those other three other teams are very tentative at the QB position, with two of them starting rookies. From that little stat you might conclude that the NFL teams that run the most are those that are most unsure of their quarterback.

For the most part, the Vikings' play selection reflects the best balance in the division.

That's a completely subjective statement. By "best balance" I assume Seifert must mean closest to 50/50. There's nothing that makes that "best".

[Infinity]

That doesn't surprise me. With a running back like AD your going to be running the ball quite a bit.

[Mothman]

Here's the full sized story:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... by-quarter
That's not the most complementary company to keep. Those other three other teams are very tentative at the QB position, with two of them starting rookies. From that little stat you might conclude that the NFL teams that run the most are those that are most unsure of their quarterback.

It makes sense for teams with young QBs to establish the run early so that might be exactly what the stat reflects. However, the stat doesn't indicate which teams run the most, just which teams run on a higher percentage of plays in the first quarter. The Seahawks, Chiefs, Dolphins and Vikings are among the 10 NFL teams that have the most rushing attempts per game this season but that list also includes the Patriots, 49ers, Texans, Bears, Redskins and Eagles so in terms of rushing attempts, the company is somewhat mixed.

For the most part, the Vikings' play selection reflects the best balance in the division.

That's a completely subjective statement. By "best balance" I assume Seifert must mean closest to 50/50. There's nothing that makes that "best".[/quote]

It's a subjective statement but it seems pretty close to ideal to me as long as both elements of the offense are being productive. A 50/50 split implies less predictability and a less one-dimensional offense, although there are obviously other factors and tendencies to consider. "Best" is whatever leads to the most wins.

[Demi]

That doesn't surprise me. With a running back like AD your going to be running the ball quite a bit.

And with Christian Ponder as your QB.

Musgrave has done a great job making a functional offense considering what he has to work with at the quarterback position.

[Purple bruise]

Amazing what accomplishments an undersized 6-2 230 lb. noodle armed QB (4-1) and in first place, can do for such a bad team with a bad coach, bad owner and bad players

[Demi]

Amazing what accomplishments an undersized 6-2 230 lb. noodle armed QB (4-1) and in first place, can do for such a bad team with a bad coach, bad owner and bad players

Yeah if you base your entire analysis of him on 5 games. And even then he's an above average caretaker at best.

[PurpleKoolaid]

Amazing what accomplishments an undersized 6-2 230 lb. noodle armed QB (4-1) and in first place, can do for such a bad team with a bad coach, bad owner and bad players

You forgot, turnover machine.

[Just Me]

Here's the full sized story:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... by-quarter
That's a completely subjective statement. By "best balance" I assume Seifert must mean closest to 50/50. There's nothing that makes that "best".

Actually it's an objective measurement, not subjective. "Best balance" or "most balanced" by it's definition means closest to 50/50. The subjective analysis is the one you are implying: Whether or not it is the best strategy to have a "balanced" offense, and that point is certainly debatable.

[Raptorman]

Something I did last week and posted on a Packer board. The data I used was from NFL.com. Vikings were and even 50%-50%.

After 5 weeks I did a little number crunching. Since people keep telling me it’s a passing league I decided to put that to the test. I took the number of passing plays and rushing plays and found the percentages for each team. Below are the top 6 in passing attempts and top 6 in rushing attempts. This is based strictly on number of plays. NOT yardage. The cutoff was 57% (the NFL average is 56.7%) and higher for passing plays. That broke the teams into sections of 14 and 18. In week 4 it was an equal 16-16.

Code: Select all

                      W  L   % passing plays

New Orleans Saints     1 4		71
Oakland Raiders        1 3		70
Cleveland Browns       0 5		68
Dallas Cowboys         2 2		67
Tennessee Titans       1 4		67
Detroit Lions          1 3		65


Miami Dolphins         2 3		50
New England Patriots   3 2		49
Washington Redskins    2 3		48
San Francisco 49ers    4 1		46
Houston Texans         5 0		45
Seattle Seahawks       3 2		42

As you can see the top 6 passing teams have a combined record of 6-21, while the top 6 running teams have a combined record of 19-11. Does that mean that teams that pass more often, win less? Not really. Of the top 7 winning teams three have a higher percentage (than NFL average 56.7%) of passing plays than running plays.

Code: Select all

                      W  L   % passing plays

Atlanta Falcons        5 0		62
Houston Texans         5 0		45
Baltimore Ravens       4 1		61
Arizona Cardinals      4 1		61
Chicago Bears          4 1		51
Minnesota Vikings      4 1		50
San Francisco 49ers    4 1		46

One other thing that I noticed is that the 14 teams with the higher passing percentage, overall their combined record is 30-35 for .462 winning percentage, while the teams with more running plays had a combined record of 47-42 for a .528 winning percentage. So is it still a passing league? Passing is important but so far this year it looks like a more balanced offense is winning. I will attempt to look at if these numbers are off because teams get behind in games and are trying to pass to catch up. Because I know that is an issue, just not how big of one.