A divisional opponents perspective on the Vikings

[Captain]

Here is the thing though...it doesn't matter what stretch of games is where, "easy" before the bye week or "brutal" after the bye week. In the end if we're a good team then we should compete in ALL of the games, we can't roll over and say oh well we were supposed to lose those games anyway, and ultimately we should come out with more wins before that bye week and compete and win after the bye week as well. Otherwise we're simply not a good team, we're just a team thats getting better and still needs more experience and more talent.

[Hunter Morrow]

11 games left, let us just say that the Vikings are good enough, on average, to be a bit better than a live dog in every single one and actually be a small fave

11 times .51

5 and a half wins, round up! 10-6! 6:30 in the morning pre-coffee wisdom.

[NextQuestion]

Buffalo started 5-2 and was red hot after beating New England at home. They proceeded to crumble and finished 6-10

[Infinity]

Buffalo started 5-2 and was red hot after beating New England at home. They proceeded to crumble and finished 6-10

I'm sure a lot of people would be very disappointed if that happened. But in the NFL, you never know. I think we look much better than the bills did, and I think we're for real.

[John_Viveiros]

Cool. Are you the only Vikings fan in Montevideo, or have you run into any other purple hermanos around town?

Do the local channels carry NFL games at all? When I lived in southern Mexico they had a pretty decent crew doing commentary for about 2 or 3 games a week. I wonder if they transmit that telecast throughout other parts of Latin America or if, say, Buenos Aires does one for South America.

There is quite a thriving American ex-pat community here, and we occasionally get together to watch the games, but it's on DirecTV, which is the standard way people get lots of channels here. I know of Bears/Giants/Chiefs/Lions fans, but haven't met any other Vikings fans. I suppose I should check to see if there are any local broadcasts, for the novelty effect. But I have fiber optic cable at 10+MB/sec and the NFL game pass, which you can get if you have a foreign IP, so it's every game and the red zone channel, and I can stop and start at any time after the game begins.

The time shift here causes issues. In September (your DST, our standard time) early games start at 2 pm, late games after 5, and the evening games go at 9:30 pm. In October, we go on DST, so the games shift one hour later, to 3/6/10:30. The late game starts to get tough. When you guys go off DST in November, that adds another hour, so it's 4/7/11:30 pm. I stayed up to watch a game last year that ended around 2:30 am (Bears/Vikes?). Dedication or foolishness? You make the call.

The 3/6 and 4/7 splits are pretty nice. We can go to church, have lunch, and go to the beach. Then we can come back and I can catch the early games, with the games ending at dinner time. Usually, I delay watching the late games so as not to completely abandon my wife on Sundays - I watch them TIVO style after she calls it a day around 9-9:30.

[John_Viveiros]

I'm sure a lot of people would be very disappointed if that happened. But in the NFL, you never know. I think we look much better than the bills did, and I think we're for real.

Alright. I just looked up their record. It's actually pretty scary, how fast they went into a tailspin. Close win over New England, close win over Philly, blew out two bad teams. Close losses to Cincy and the Giants. And at 5-2, the wheels fell off. Three straight blowout losses, where they totaled 26 points. Then two close losses and another blowout. And the season was over.

Yes, the Vikings season so far does look like the first half of the season for Buffalo. So let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[Texas Vike]

There is quite a thriving American ex-pat community here, and we occasionally get together to watch the games, but it's on DirecTV, which is the standard way people get lots of channels here. I know of Bears/Giants/Chiefs/Lions fans, but haven't met any other Vikings fans. I suppose I should check to see if there are any local broadcasts, for the novelty effect. But I have fiber optic cable at 10+MB/sec and the NFL game pass, which you can get if you have a foreign IP, so it's every game and the red zone channel, and I can stop and start at any time after the game begins.

The time shift here causes issues. In September (your DST, our standard time) early games start at 2 pm, late games after 5, and the evening games go at 9:30 pm. In October, we go on DST, so the games shift one hour later, to 3/6/10:30. The late game starts to get tough. When you guys go off DST in November, that adds another hour, so it's 4/7/11:30 pm. I stayed up to watch a game last year that ended around 2:30 am (Bears/Vikes?). Dedication or foolishness? You make the call.

The 3/6 and 4/7 splits are pretty nice. We can go to church, have lunch, and go to the beach. Then we can come back and I can catch the early games, with the games ending at dinner time. Usually, I delay watching the late games so as not to completely abandon my wife on Sundays - I watch them TIVO style after she calls it a day around 9-9:30.

Very cool. If your wife is a Latina Sunday = sacred family time... (don't I know it!) so your set up sounds perfect.

Ex-pat communities are fun. In Mexico DF we had a crew from all over the world, but I was the only Vikingo in the group. I remember watching games in bars all over central and southern Mexico... what a blast.

[cstelter]

Alright. I just looked up their record. It's actually pretty scary, how fast they went into a tailspin. Close win over New England, close win over Philly, blew out two bad teams. Close losses to Cincy and the Giants. And at 5-2, the wheels fell off. Three straight blowout losses, where they totaled 26 points. Then two close losses and another blowout. And the season was over.

Yes, the Vikings season so far does look like the first half of the season for Buffalo. So let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I disagree that our season looks the same-- I think the Bills more resemble our 2003 squad that went on to tank the rest of the season after a 6-0 start. That season we only had 2-3 games in the first 6 where we held opposing offense significantly less (~1yd or more less per play) than their season average in yards per play. Look at Buffalo:

Code: Select all

                      Yards/Play     | Net PassYds/Att | RunYds/Att  | takeaway/giveaway
2011 Bills           Avg  |  vs BUF  |  Avg | vs BUF   | Avg | Vs BUF|
Kansas City          4.9      5.6       5.8    2.91      3.9   6.0       3/1  W
Oakland              6.0      7.2       7.2    9.79      4.5   4.37      2/1  W
New England          6.3      6.97      7.9    8.6       4.0   4.15      4/2  W
Cincinnati           5.0      6.7       6.0    7.97      3.9   5.34      0/2  L
Philadelphia         6.2      8.15      7.0    7.875     5.1   8.7       5/1  W
New York Giants      6.0      6.37      7.7    9.125     3.5   3.69      0/2  L
Washington           5.2      4.04      6.0    4.6       4.0   2.36      2/2  W

They only managed to hold Washington to fewer yards per play than they averaged. They did well against the pass vs KC and did quite well against the pass and against the run vs Washington. But they did well below their opponents average many many times. These by 2+ yards: Oak pass, CIN Pass, PHI run, and these by 1+ yards: Cin Run, NYG Pass. Plus they had a favorable Turnover ratio in most of their wins. This is *very* similar to stats I posted for the Vikings 2003 season when we started 6-0.

The 2012 Vikings, on the other hand, appear from a different modl:

Code: Select all

                      Yards/Play     | Net PassYds/Att| RunYds/Att  | takeaway/giveaway
2012                 Avg  |  vs MN   |  Avg | vs MN   | Avg | Vs MN
Jacksonville         4.3     4.86       4.4   6.2       4.3   3.32    2/2 
Indianapolis         5.3     4.56       6.2   6.25      3.8   2.8     0/1
San Francisco        6.4     5.09       6.8   5.46      6.1   4.45    3/2    
Detroit              5.6     4.8        6.6   6.68      3.6   2.75    1/0
Tennessee            5.2     3.99       6.1   4.48      3.5   2.74    2/2

We've held our opponents to roughly a yard less per play than they averaged (aside from Jacksonville) and don't appear to be letting up. We also haven't relied heavily on turnovers in any of the games.

Washington is going to be a great test for us because they have one of the highest YPA (#3 at 6.3 total and #2 pass and #3 run). If we can deliver more of the same by yielding less than their averages, it will bode well.

[John_Viveiros]

I disagree that our season looks the same-- I think the Bills more resemble our 2003 squad that went on to tank the rest of the season after a 6-0 start. That season we only had 2-3 games in the first 6 where we held opposing offense significantly less (~1yd or more less per play) than their season average in yards per play.
[Excellent analysis deleted]
We've held our opponents to roughly a yard less per play than they averaged (aside from Jacksonville) and don't appear to be letting up. We also haven't relied heavily on turnovers in any of the games.

Wow. That was some good work Craig. You should be a paid analyst somewhere!

Now that is a real reason for optimism. Could the whole difference in the defense be due to our secondary (Smith, health, experience for the safeties)?