Santana Rumors

wang_chi7 · Post by **wang_chi7** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 11:45 am

I figured to make the other threads less cluttered and to not hijack them I'd make a specific one for this topic. Rumors and notes so far:

Mets will not trade Reyes, period. He's a cornerstone to their franchise and is off the table. Their GM has let it be known. Without him, Mets are probably out of the running.

The Yankees all but have Cano off the table. Hughes and Chamberlain maybe could be part of the deal (one of them- probably Hughes) almost has to be in the deal though and the Yankees I'm sure won't let that stand in the way. Melky Cabrera is in nearly every rumored trade with the Yankees. I really doubt they let Chamberlain go.

The Red Sox and Twins are talking, with Santana's blessing (he has a no trade clause.) I've heard it would be Coco Crisp, Bucholz (young P), John Lester, and a fourth guy whom I forget but wasn't a big name or anything. I don't like this rumor as Crisp is very average; the two pitchers are good arms but I'd rather see the team try and figure out how to sign Santana rather than get those two.

Angels won't be getting him IMO, they have a track record of being delusional when it comes to making trades. They won't trade prospects and are unwilling to trade fair value. They are supposedly in the hunt for Cabrera (Florida), but won't give even close to the asking price.

The Dodgers are a dark horse, but they don't have a lot to offer. They have a few young guys that are pretty good, but nothing real special that they would be willing to part with. They have too many old guys on the team to make a real move IMO. Billingsley (P), Broxton (P), Martin (C), LaRoche (1B/3B), Kemp (OF), and Young (OF) are decent enough players and I would demand Billingsley in any talks (along with Martin if him or Mauer would move positions.) The other guys are pretty good, young guys but not spectacular.

There's also the possibility that they will resign Santana. They seem to be far away on the number of years but not way off on money per year. I think the Twins offered 4 years at 20m per year, Santana wants something like 7 years. I might have those figures slightly off, but you get the idea. We're talking about 40-60m extra over the length of the contract. Right now he's getting paid around 14 mil. Barry Zito got 7 years 128 mil last season and Santana (rightfully) believes he deserves more than that. With the new ballpark bringing in extra cash starting in a couple of years, I would hope Pohlad would open up the purse strings and get the deal done. Letting the best player go will only make fans mad and hurt attendance and his bottom line; resigning him will show faith and more people will be willing to spend money at the homer dome.

Feel free to add any tidbits you guys hear, opinions, or to just correct my errors. Not that they ever happen!

MWNANCe · Post by **MWNANCe** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 4:32 pm

You might be right about the Angels not getting them but your missing the fact that the Angels have a new GM who is itching to make his mark. He already traded Cabrera..and he signed an outfileder you might be familiar with...his name is Hunter....

viking_guy · Post by **viking_guy** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 4:56 pm

i don't see how the Twins CAN'T keep Santana. the new park will be open in a couple of years, that means more $$$$ for cheap a$$ pohlad but without Santana I just don't think a lot of the ticket buying fans will be that interested in spending all that money to go watch a mediocre team. Now, if they decide to spend some green and keep Johan, I think a lot of those people who might not normally go to a game, will go. Sure it will cost Pohlad a lot of money in to keep Santana, but he (or his family) will more than make it back by keeping Johan. Plus you will NEVER get equitable return for the best pitcher in baseball, so the best thing to do is to not trade him.

wang_chi7 · Post by **wang_chi7** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 9:50 pm

viking_guy wrote:i don't see how the Twins CAN'T keep Santana. the new park will be open in a couple of years, that means more $$$$ for cheap a$$ pohlad but without Santana I just don't think a lot of the ticket buying fans will be that interested in spending all that money to go watch a mediocre team. Now, if they decide to spend some green and keep Johan, I think a lot of those people who might not normally go to a game, will go. Sure it will cost Pohlad a lot of money in to keep Santana, but he (or his family) will more than make it back by keeping Johan. Plus you will NEVER get equitable return for the best pitcher in baseball, so the best thing to do is to not trade him.

Agreed. It only makes sense, therefore they will probably trade him.

wang_chi7 · Post by **wang_chi7** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 9:54 pm

MWNANCe wrote:You might be right about the Angels not getting them but your missing the fact that the Angels have a new GM who is itching to make his mark. He already traded Cabrera..and he signed an outfileder you might be familiar with...his name is Hunter....

I didn't know they had a new GM.

The Hunter signing didn't involve making a deal with another team. And teh amount for 5 years was very questionable for a guy passed his prime and really only good on defense. He's very average at the plate.

The Orlando Cabrera trade was very puzzling, they didn't need a mediocre arm in Garland as they have too many pitchers for a rotation anyways. I was talking about trading for Miguel Cabrera anyways, they've been unwilling to give up prospects for him and pretty much any of their important players. They expect to give up little to get Cabrera or Santana it seems.

wang_chi7 · Post by **wang_chi7** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 3:05 am

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3135740

The Yankees are willing to give up Hughes now. With that, I'm guessing he's wearing pinstripes pretty soon here.

Reading on other boards, most Yankee fans are pretty unhappy that they would part with Hughes, Cabrera, and a couple prospects. The team has been burned many times by veteran pitchers like Kevin Brown, Pavano, Weaver, Johnson so they are scared. They also see that the Yankees haven't had this good of a farm system since the early 1990's, the one that turned into a dynasty. On top of the holes created, they'll have to pay him around 25 per year.

I think they are sort of correct, they would be giving up a lot in their best pitching prospect (and possibly best in baseball) and their young starting CF. But its Santana, even in his off year (last year) he was still great. I doubt he becomes Pavano part 2.

Hughes is only 21 and has already pitched well at the major league level. Cabrera is a pretty good CF who is only 23 but has quite a bit of experience in the big show. He's not amazing or anything but very good (.275 .340 .388 lifetime) and a very good fielder. I'd hate to see Santana playing there, but they would be getting a nice trade so they've got to do what they've got to do.

DanAS1 · Post by **DanAS1** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 3:32 am

wang_chi7 wrote: I didn't know they had a new GM.

The Hunter signing didn't involve making a deal with another team. And teh amount for 5 years was very questionable for a guy passed his prime and really only good on defense. He's very average at the plate.

I think that's a little harsh. Hunter had some pop in his bat. Last year, he hit 287 with 28 home runs and 107 RBIs. How is that "very average"?

Do you want to see "very average"? Check out the bums that the Twins trot out next season.

As for "Carlos," I don't see how we keep him. He wants to play for a winner, he's pissed at the Twins for being cheap, and the Twins don't want to be a big spending team. Can they really justify paying a huge percentage of their total payroll on one guy who only plays once every five games? I don't see it happening. I suspect that their professed interest in retaining him is only an attempt to demonstrate leverage in the trade talks.

Minniman · Post by **Minniman** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 10:44 am

Neither the Red Sox nor Yankees are willing to give value for one of the best pitchers in baseball.

It is typical. They know the Twins have to dump him or lose him. Aren't we lucky that market size and revenue don't matter in Major League Baseball.

wang_chi7 · Post by **wang_chi7** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:46 am

Minniman wrote:Neither the Red Sox nor Yankees are willing to give value for one of the best pitchers in baseball.

It is typical. They know the Twins have to dump him or lose him. Aren't we lucky that market size and revenue don't matter in Major League Baseball.

The Sox aren't offering value, I think the Yankees are now that Hughes is on the table. They do have to offer something in order to avoid the other team getting him, its kind of like the Cold War for baseball.

I don't appreciate the smugness of your last comment, as I've said time and again that it is an issue, just not the end of the world for small market teams. They are at a disadvantage when it comes to how to win. They have to play the game differently, but if they are smart they can win too and for more than a couple of years. Oakland used to be one of the best teams in baseball for about 4-5 years, Minnesota made it to the playoffs quite a few times this decade. No, neither team won it but other smaller teams have. They need to fix the issue, but its not so big that baseball is "a joke."

wang_chi7 · Post by **wang_chi7** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:52 am

DanAS1 wrote: I think that's a little harsh. Hunter had some pop in his bat. Last year, he hit 287 with 28 home runs and 107 RBIs. How is that "very average"?

Do you want to see "very average"? Check out the bums that the Twins trot out next season.

As for "Carlos," I don't see how we keep him. He wants to play for a winner, he's pissed at the Twins for being cheap, and the Twins don't want to be a big spending team. Can they really justify paying a huge percentage of their total payroll on one guy who only plays once every five games? I don't see it happening. I suspect that their professed interest in retaining him is only an attempt to demonstrate leverage in the trade talks.

Maybe very average is a little unfair, but he's only a rung above it. He's a number 5-6 hitter that doesn't get on base, strikes out way too much, and got his RBI's because of who is in front of him in the lineup (RBI's are about the most worthless stat around.)

His career OBP is only .324 and slugging .469. That slugging number is pretty good, but for a strikeout machine who doesn't walk (only 30 unintentional ones last year) its fairly low.

I still like Hunter, in a way he was a favorite of mine. But he's also vastly overrated. He's still very good in the OF, but that won't last too much longer until he has to move to RF. Teams shouldn't sign defensive specialists to big contracts like this if the guy is 32 years old.

The batters that his career best compare are:
1. Carl Everett (938)
2. Preston Wilson (937)
3. Phil Nevin (934)
4. Juan Encarnacion (931)
5. Jose Guillen (931)
6. Jacque Jones (930)
7. Geoff Jenkins (930)
8. Bobby Higginson (925)
9. Larry Hisle (923)
10. Leon Wagner (922)
(explaination here:http://www.baseball-reference.com/about ... rity.shtml)

Demi · Post by **Demi** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 1:16 pm

The Yankees all but have Cano off the table. Hughes and Chamberlain maybe could be part of the deal (one of them- probably Hughes) almost has to be in the deal though and the Yankees I'm sure won't let that stand in the way. Melky Cabrera is in nearly every rumored trade with the Yankees. I really doubt they let Chamberlain go.

Most recent rumor seems to be Hughes and Cabrera.

wang_chi7 · Post by **wang_chi7** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 1:35 pm

Demi wrote: Most recent rumor seems to be Hughes and Cabrera.

Thats what it looks like. They would also have to add a couple of decent prospects or one other known quality to finish the trade. If the Twins were to lose Santana, I wouldn't mind a trade involving those two. Hughes should be a special pitcher and Cabrera is a pretty good CF. Both are in their early 20's too. Those two alone wouldn't be enough, but add some decent prospects and I think the deal is done.

DanAS1 · Post by **DanAS1** » Sun Dec 02, 2007 8:13 am

wang_chi7 wrote:
Maybe very average is a little unfair, but he's only a rung above it. He's a number 5-6 hitter that doesn't get on base, strikes out way too much, and got his RBI's because of who is in front of him in the lineup (RBI's are about the most worthless stat around.)

His career OBP is only .324 and slugging .469. That slugging number is pretty good, but for a strikeout machine who doesn't walk (only 30 unintentional ones last year) its fairly low.

I still like Hunter, in a way he was a favorite of mine. But he's also vastly overrated. He's still very good in the OF, but that won't last too much longer until he has to move to RF. Teams shouldn't sign defensive specialists to big contracts like this if the guy is 32 years old.

I'll buy "overrated." But I still rate him pretty highly. And I'm not just looking at his career averages, I'm looking especially at what he did last year. He was a darned good hitter. What bothers me most about his hitting is his strikeouts, which often have come during key at bats.

Oh well, he's old news now.

ap28 · Post by **ap28** » Sun Dec 02, 2007 10:30 am

Demi wrote: Most recent rumor seems to be Hughes and Cabrera.

I would hate for that deal to go through. Cabrera is an average player and Hughes has had multiple injuries early in his career. I think we could get the best deal from Boston. Either Lester or Bucholz would be in the deal or possibly even both. I don't want coco crisp but i believe they would package ellsbury into the deal even though they say they wouldn't.

wang_chi7 · Post by **wang_chi7** » Sun Dec 02, 2007 11:43 am

ap28 wrote: I would hate for that deal to go through. Cabrera is an average player and Hughes has had multiple injuries early in his career. I think we could get the best deal from Boston. Either Lester or Bucholz would be in the deal or possibly even both. I don't want coco crisp but i believe they would package ellsbury into the deal even though they say they wouldn't.

If Ellsbury is in the deal, then maybe. Without him I would definitely be unhappy. Lester, Ellsbury, and a decent prospect at minimum. That third guy being Bucholz would seal the deal, but it won't happen. The Yankees deal at the moment is quite a bit better. Coco Crisp can stay where he's at.

Cabrera is a pretty good CF, there's a reason he took Damon's job even when he was healthy again. He's a .340 OBP which is halfway decent, and a low .388 slugging pct. Obviously he's not a power hitter, but he's young and gets on base. He draws walk and can steal bases (Yankees don't run so his numbers on the paths are low.) His patience at the plate is excellent for a young guy. His best asset is his defense where he covers a lot of ground. He actually has numbers and skills of a young Torii Hunter (actually better at the plate than Hunter was as a young guy.)

Hughes is the real deal, will be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Probably not Santana level, but him and Cabrera combined is a really good deal. They'll add at least one more decent prospect too. He was out for a long time last year with a leg injury, but its not like he hurt his shoulder and he's fully healed and pitched well after returning.