"Breaking Browns" Pre-game Thread
Posted: Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:30 pm
Might as well get the pre-game thread started a little earlier this week and start breaking down the upcoming contest between the Browns and the Vikings.
First things first, situationally both teams are coming off fairly convincing wins. The Browns just beat up on an offensively hapless Bears team with a rookie at QB, while the Vikings steadied themselves after halftime and cruised to a comfortable win over a team that had become a notorious nemesis. Both teams are feeling good and have some confidence although the Browns come in with the better record. The game is at home for the Vikings, which gives them a very slight edge. The last aspect of this game that is relevant is the coaches of the two teams, with former Vikings OC Kevin Stefanski leading the Browns against Mike Zimmer's Vikings. Familiarity breeds contempt, and I could see that showing up in multiple ways in the upcoming game as both coaches might be tempted to make assumptions about what the other will do that could prove to be either very helpful or hurtful to their respective causes.
The 2021 Cleveland Browns offense resembles what the average Vikings fan saw of the Vikings offense under Stefanski. It's not flashy. It's not predicated on big passing plays or a QB running around and making spectacular throws. It is based on effective, consistent running coupled with effective, consistent passing, with a high number of passes going to the tight ends and running backs. To give an idea of what that means in practical terms, the Browns are 2nd in the NFL in rushing heading into the game at a whopping 174.7 yards per game on a 5.1 yards per carry average. Contrast that to the Vikings 128.0 on a 4.6 yards per carry average, and you get an idea of how much more effective the Browns have been running the ball than the Vikings. The Browns score a lot on the ground as well, notching 8 team rushing TDs against 2 passing TDs (as compared to the Vikings 1 rushing TD against 8 passing TDs). So the Browns run well and run a lot and they're going to keep doing that against the Vikings and everyone else until someone stops it, which I'm not sure the Vikings are equipped to do.
While the Browns haven't been an explosive passing team, that doesn't mean they're not an efficient passing team. Baker Mayfield is connecting on 73.8% of his attempts with a solid 9.8 yards per attempt. As stated before, his top three receiving targets have been his RB and two TEs, so he's not going deep very often, but he's efficient and effective and complements the run game very well. This is Kevin Stefanski's wet dream offense in terms of personnel and approach, and its coming to Minnesota next.
So how do the Vikings fare this Sunday against the Browns offense? Well, I'm worried about their ability to stop the run. In my view the defense has not done a great job of that thus far against any opponent, although they do manage to do it in streaks. For this upcoming game a good litmus test is going to be how often the Vikings can get the Browns into 3rd-and-6 or more, because that will be an uncomfortable position for them. They are a team that really needs to be in 3rd-and-5-or-less to maintain drives and eat up clock. The defense can't go to sleep on Mayfield deep, but if there is a game where it might not matter as much if the Vikings were to cheat their DBs forward a bit and possibly lose deep contain once or twice without paying dearly for it, the Browns are the NFL team that would be least likely to make them pay for that. One thing that might be helpful to slow the Browns down a bit on offense would be pre-snap line shifts along with showing a lot of potential blitzers who then fall back seemingly randomly after the snap. Give the Browns a lot to think about when run blocking, and work with the crowd noise to make Mayfield's job of pre-snap adjustments more difficult. Lastly, do not lose contain on the edges. Allowing cutback lanes against the Browns will be a killer. Positional discipline across the defensive front is a must on every play.
When the Vikings are on offense they'll be attacking a defense that is likewise predicated on stopping the run. The Browns rank 5th in the NFL against the run, allowing a measly 67.0 yards per game against. Now granted, they haven't played teams that have great running attacks thus far (away at KC and home versus the Texans and Bears), so that probably makes them look a little better than they may be objectively, but they're definitely going to try to keep that going against the Vikings running game whether Cook is in or not. The Browns have also stopped the pass as well so far, also ranking 5th overall at 181.7 yards per game against. They aren't a big pressure team (Myles Garrett has gotten home for 5.5 sacks, but beyond that their next best rusher clocks in at 2 sacks so far), but they will generate heat if they can force the opposing offense into poor down-distance situations. Against the best passing attack they faced in the Chiefs, they did reasonably well, holding them to 324 yards passing on 8.5 yards per pass. They completely destroyed the Bears offense, which they should have done but still, its far easier to say it than to do it and they actually did it. So the Browns are for real on both sides of the ball. What I'll be looking for from the Vikings offense is can they surprise the Browns defense, perhaps springing some big plays on them? Can they keep them off balance for extended stretches and use that to frustrate them and then hit them for more big plays? Cousins play is going to be critical in this effort. If he continues to play at a high level and with confidence the Vikings should be able to keep drives alive, move the ball and score. They will likely struggle to run, at least early on, but since I don't expect the Browns to be able to run up a sizeable early lead the Vikings should be able to stick with the run and that should pay off eventually.
This game might come down to coaching more than any other game thus far. Both Zimmer and Stefanski know each other well. Both have a defined style and mindset and both have teams that are built around that mindset and whose play reflects that style. So this is the ideal game for Zimmer to use that and throw in some wrinkles that Stefanski should not expect. Wrinkles like an opening drive that attempts a deep throw within the first two plays and maybe doesn't run once to start despite lining up in run-heavy formations. Get Stefanski and his team out of their comfort zone early ala what the Seahawks did against the Vikings and try to get some quick scores on the board. The Browns are a team that isn't built to play from behind, so that will tilt the balance in favor of the Vikings defense as well as Mayfield and the Browns are forced to press more than usual. That could lead to some turnovers and frustration on their part as well.
I don't see this game being a comfortable win for either team. It is likely to be close unless one side scores some haymakers and the other side has to do things it can't do well to equalize. Turnovers, penalties, and special teams will be crucial, and we could well see two offenses that largely plod up and down the field trading points most of the game as both teams will likely be able to score more often than not.
In the end I'm going to go with the Vikings because they are at home:
Vikings - 24
Browns - 21
First things first, situationally both teams are coming off fairly convincing wins. The Browns just beat up on an offensively hapless Bears team with a rookie at QB, while the Vikings steadied themselves after halftime and cruised to a comfortable win over a team that had become a notorious nemesis. Both teams are feeling good and have some confidence although the Browns come in with the better record. The game is at home for the Vikings, which gives them a very slight edge. The last aspect of this game that is relevant is the coaches of the two teams, with former Vikings OC Kevin Stefanski leading the Browns against Mike Zimmer's Vikings. Familiarity breeds contempt, and I could see that showing up in multiple ways in the upcoming game as both coaches might be tempted to make assumptions about what the other will do that could prove to be either very helpful or hurtful to their respective causes.
The 2021 Cleveland Browns offense resembles what the average Vikings fan saw of the Vikings offense under Stefanski. It's not flashy. It's not predicated on big passing plays or a QB running around and making spectacular throws. It is based on effective, consistent running coupled with effective, consistent passing, with a high number of passes going to the tight ends and running backs. To give an idea of what that means in practical terms, the Browns are 2nd in the NFL in rushing heading into the game at a whopping 174.7 yards per game on a 5.1 yards per carry average. Contrast that to the Vikings 128.0 on a 4.6 yards per carry average, and you get an idea of how much more effective the Browns have been running the ball than the Vikings. The Browns score a lot on the ground as well, notching 8 team rushing TDs against 2 passing TDs (as compared to the Vikings 1 rushing TD against 8 passing TDs). So the Browns run well and run a lot and they're going to keep doing that against the Vikings and everyone else until someone stops it, which I'm not sure the Vikings are equipped to do.
While the Browns haven't been an explosive passing team, that doesn't mean they're not an efficient passing team. Baker Mayfield is connecting on 73.8% of his attempts with a solid 9.8 yards per attempt. As stated before, his top three receiving targets have been his RB and two TEs, so he's not going deep very often, but he's efficient and effective and complements the run game very well. This is Kevin Stefanski's wet dream offense in terms of personnel and approach, and its coming to Minnesota next.
So how do the Vikings fare this Sunday against the Browns offense? Well, I'm worried about their ability to stop the run. In my view the defense has not done a great job of that thus far against any opponent, although they do manage to do it in streaks. For this upcoming game a good litmus test is going to be how often the Vikings can get the Browns into 3rd-and-6 or more, because that will be an uncomfortable position for them. They are a team that really needs to be in 3rd-and-5-or-less to maintain drives and eat up clock. The defense can't go to sleep on Mayfield deep, but if there is a game where it might not matter as much if the Vikings were to cheat their DBs forward a bit and possibly lose deep contain once or twice without paying dearly for it, the Browns are the NFL team that would be least likely to make them pay for that. One thing that might be helpful to slow the Browns down a bit on offense would be pre-snap line shifts along with showing a lot of potential blitzers who then fall back seemingly randomly after the snap. Give the Browns a lot to think about when run blocking, and work with the crowd noise to make Mayfield's job of pre-snap adjustments more difficult. Lastly, do not lose contain on the edges. Allowing cutback lanes against the Browns will be a killer. Positional discipline across the defensive front is a must on every play.
When the Vikings are on offense they'll be attacking a defense that is likewise predicated on stopping the run. The Browns rank 5th in the NFL against the run, allowing a measly 67.0 yards per game against. Now granted, they haven't played teams that have great running attacks thus far (away at KC and home versus the Texans and Bears), so that probably makes them look a little better than they may be objectively, but they're definitely going to try to keep that going against the Vikings running game whether Cook is in or not. The Browns have also stopped the pass as well so far, also ranking 5th overall at 181.7 yards per game against. They aren't a big pressure team (Myles Garrett has gotten home for 5.5 sacks, but beyond that their next best rusher clocks in at 2 sacks so far), but they will generate heat if they can force the opposing offense into poor down-distance situations. Against the best passing attack they faced in the Chiefs, they did reasonably well, holding them to 324 yards passing on 8.5 yards per pass. They completely destroyed the Bears offense, which they should have done but still, its far easier to say it than to do it and they actually did it. So the Browns are for real on both sides of the ball. What I'll be looking for from the Vikings offense is can they surprise the Browns defense, perhaps springing some big plays on them? Can they keep them off balance for extended stretches and use that to frustrate them and then hit them for more big plays? Cousins play is going to be critical in this effort. If he continues to play at a high level and with confidence the Vikings should be able to keep drives alive, move the ball and score. They will likely struggle to run, at least early on, but since I don't expect the Browns to be able to run up a sizeable early lead the Vikings should be able to stick with the run and that should pay off eventually.
This game might come down to coaching more than any other game thus far. Both Zimmer and Stefanski know each other well. Both have a defined style and mindset and both have teams that are built around that mindset and whose play reflects that style. So this is the ideal game for Zimmer to use that and throw in some wrinkles that Stefanski should not expect. Wrinkles like an opening drive that attempts a deep throw within the first two plays and maybe doesn't run once to start despite lining up in run-heavy formations. Get Stefanski and his team out of their comfort zone early ala what the Seahawks did against the Vikings and try to get some quick scores on the board. The Browns are a team that isn't built to play from behind, so that will tilt the balance in favor of the Vikings defense as well as Mayfield and the Browns are forced to press more than usual. That could lead to some turnovers and frustration on their part as well.
I don't see this game being a comfortable win for either team. It is likely to be close unless one side scores some haymakers and the other side has to do things it can't do well to equalize. Turnovers, penalties, and special teams will be crucial, and we could well see two offenses that largely plod up and down the field trading points most of the game as both teams will likely be able to score more often than not.
In the end I'm going to go with the Vikings because they are at home:
Vikings - 24
Browns - 21
