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This report is probably the most comprehensive analysis of the chances of success for Ponder that I have seen, presumably by someone who isn't wearing purple goggles. I think it adds quite a bit to the discussion we are having. Thus, the new topic - it would otherwise get lost in the barrage of Ponder articles.

Ignore the conclusion on the title. It really doesn't seem to be that dead set against him.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1434 ... comes-next

A sampling:

So while Ponder's improvement has generally been better than average, he started in a much worse spot than many others. Only five quarterbacks in the dataset performed worse than Ponder in adjusted yards per attempt his rookie year and still made the Pro Bowl, while 15 could safely be called failures. Of those quarterbacks performing similarly to him, six made at least one trip to the Pro Bowl, while twelve others floundered.

Thanks for the link. The statistical analysis was a bit over the top but they made some interesting points and I agree with their conclusion that there is a very low likelihood that Ponder will perform at the level fans expect out of a franchise quarterback.

I thought this was a good point as well:

Given that Ponder is hardly helped by his talent at wide receiver, there's a good chance that these statistics understate his ability—just like Troy Aikman was hurt by the relatively slow development of Michael Irvin, the departure of Herschel Walker and the quarterback controversy early in his career that saw him missing reps with the first team.

They were very fair-minded in their analysis of both Ponder and Webb.

Mothman wrote:Thanks for the link. The statistical analysis was a bit over the top but they made some interesting points and I agree with their conclusion that there is a very low likelihood that Ponder will perform at the level fans expect out of a franchise quarterback.

I thought this was a good point as well:
They were very fair-minded in their analysis of both Ponder and Webb.

I agree. I'm a big Webb fan, and it's easy to get caught up in seeing the backup QB as the fan favorite. But this analysis also threw a bit of cold water in my face on the Webb front. Of course, like Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson, one of these guys may get cut by the Vikes and lead their teams to the Superbowl (against each other).

The article mentioned a lot of the things we have talked about here at vmb.com, but put it in the historical perspective that we don't have.

John_Viveiros wrote:I agree. I'm a big Webb fan, and it's easy to get caught up in seeing the backup QB as the fan favorite. But this analysis also threw a bit of cold water in my face on the Webb front. Of course, like Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson, one of these guys may get cut by the Vikes and lead their teams to the Superbowl (against each other).

LOL! That's the sort of thing that could only happen twice to the Vikings. It's odd enough that it happened once.

I really tried to look for the good and hope for Ponder to get better.

he seems to be getting worse and that off balance interception against the bears this week
looked like a Tarvaris Jackson jump ball effort..

I think we should bring in a Vet like Matt Moore and let him work on his fundamentals and get
some decent wide outs.

I would Keep Harvin, Wright and maybe Jenkins(the guy is slow but makes some nice catches to get first downs)

We should have picked up Plaxico instead of Burton this year. Plaxico had six touchdowns with Mark Sanchez
throwing to him. he is great in the end zone, and Burton has done nothing at all.

Do not get too dismayed reading that. All of the analysis was done in comparing Ponder’s statistical performance to other passers in the NFL. While perhaps insightful there are numerous holes one can poke in such work. Here are a few:

1.) Different QBs played in very different environments in terms of NFL rules
2.) All the QBs in the analysis played in different offensive systems
3.) As was hinted by the WR comment, most QBs are throwing to very different targets, ie playing with different players
4.) Not every QB was handing the rock to AP 25+ times a game

Not trying to defend Ponder here. (I thought aside from 2 bad decisions he did “just enough” for them to win yesterday.) Just pointing out that statistics are not a be all end all, especially on this front. Keep in mind that the author’s “odds of success” calculations are based entirely on the performance of other QB and their statistics. It does not take into account any detail unique to Ponder’s situation other than the position he plays. Perhaps more importantly, the author fails to prove his analysis, at no point in the article does he make a case that a particular statistic is proven to be predictive of QB success. He simply compares Ponder’s stats to those of the other QBs and assumes that the population/stats are sufficient to make conclusions. Many times he states odds of success, but where does he explain how these odds are calculated?

This isn’t to say that author is wrong. I cannot prove that either. It is more to say that the Author has failed to prove he is right. It is just a bunch of seemingly related numbers with no defined correlation used to sound technical in order to justify a certain conclusion. The only thing conclusive is that once again, the Bleacher Report must be taken with a grain of salt.

mansquatch wrote:This isn’t to say that author is wrong. I cannot prove that either. It is more to say that the Author has failed to prove he is right. It is just a bunch of seemingly related numbers with no defined correlation used to sound technical in order to justify a certain conclusion. The only thing conclusive is that once again, the Bleacher Report must be taken with a grain of salt.

One could take the Bleacher Report's analysis with a grain of salt if it didn't echo most every other analysis by ever other person analyzing the team's QB situation. Personally, I thought this was an interesting take. But that said, it told us what we already know, which is that it's getting less and less likely that Ponder will succeed as a franchise QB and Webb probably isn't the answer either.

On that note, I still have that worrisome feeling that the Vikings have a QB depth chart filled with three *backup* quarterbacks.

Ponder was 11/17 yesterday. He had what I saw as two really bad plays. The first down INT was just a stupid throw. The sack where it was ruled he was down he got lucky on, but he should have tucked the ball. He also had two plays where the ball was delivered and his WR let him down, which included a bomb to Aromashadu that hit his shoulder pad. That should have been a monster TD, but Ponder's WR let him down. Wright dropped one that should have been caught. The slant to Jenkins for a 1st down was big time throw. Consistency and the head case issues are still there. Just pointing out that the pendulum swings both ways for Ponder.

However, we saw somethign that was IMO, far more demonstrative of where the team is at. AP had 30+ carries and they were routinely running on 1st and 2nd down. I know some will say they should be doing this after AP's 1st quarter. OK, I'll buy that to a point, do what works. However, after the 1st quarter AP wasn't as beastly and the Vikings were very one dimensional, running into 8 and 9 man fronts. My point is, the coaches kept calling those plays. That to me says Ponder's time is running out. AP is a beast, no question, but when they are facing alignments that scream pass and they are still handing it off it says the coaching staff doesn't have faith in the QB or the WR or both. (My guess is it is both)

Regardless, Ponder played well enough to not prevent a win. If Aroma play ends up being a catch, you might say he broke even with helping/hurting the team, but that is about it. Bottom line, he isn't making enough plays for them such that they have to let AP do all the work. Some of that is on the WR, but I'd argue not enough for the Vikings to not start thinking about drafting another QB or signing a veteran.

I'm going to play a little Devil's advocate for just a second and say that I think something clicked in Ponders head on the last pass to Jenkins, the one which converted a 1st down. It was a quick slant and Ponder went back without hesitation and fired it to Jenkins perfectly (well, it was a little high) and Jenkins made the catch and got the 1st down. I saw the smile on Ponders face and it seemed almost like a different spring in his step. It is possible, albiet very slightly, that something clicked withhim there...
don't flame me, after all, time will tell. But maybe there was something with that play that woke him up...

mansquatch wrote:Ponder was 11/17 yesterday. He had what I saw as two really bad plays. The first down INT was just a stupid throw. The sack where it was ruled he was down he got lucky on, but he should have tucked the ball. He also had two plays where the ball was delivered and his WR let him down, which included a bomb to Aromashadu that hit his shoulder pad. That should have been a monster TD, but Ponder's WR let him down. Wright dropped one that should have been caught. The slant to Jenkins for a 1st down was big time throw. Consistency and the head case issues are still there. Just pointing out that the pendulum swings both ways for Ponder.

However, we saw somethign that was IMO, far more demonstrative of where the team is at. AP had 30+ carries and they were routinely running on 1st and 2nd down. I know some will say they should be doing this after AP's 1st quarter. OK, I'll buy that to a point, do what works. However, after the 1st quarter AP wasn't as beastly and the Vikings were very one dimensional, running into 8 and 9 man fronts. My point is, the coaches kept calling those plays. That to me says Ponder's time is running out. AP is a beast, no question, but when they are facing alignments that scream pass and they are still handing it off it says the coaching staff doesn't have faith in the QB or the WR or both. (My guess is it is both)

Regardless, Ponder played well enough to not prevent a win. If Aroma play ends up being a catch, you might say he broke even with helping/hurting the team, but that is about it. Bottom line, he isn't making enough plays for them such that they have to let AP do all the work. Some of that is on the WR, but I'd argue not enough for the Vikings to not start thinking about drafting another QB or signing a veteran.

There simply isn't a way for me to read into the future here. But as of right now I think the following might happen. I think Ponder will be the starting QB in 2013. I imagine a veteran QB or maybe a draft pick will be added to the QB depth chart (I really believe it will be a veteran QB). I think the difference next year will be that Ponder will get pulled if he starts having bad games and Frazier will go with the veteran QB (or maybe even Webb).

I also believe there will be some upgrading in the team's WR corps, which can only help Ponder or whoever the QB is.

PurpleMustReign wrote:I'm going to play a little Devil's advocate for just a second and say that I think something clicked in Ponders head on the last pass to Jenkins, the one which converted a 1st down. It was a quick slant and Ponder went back without hesitation and fired it to Jenkins perfectly (well, it was a little high) and Jenkins made the catch and got the 1st down. I saw the smile on Ponders face and it seemed almost like a different spring in his step. It is possible, albiet very slightly, that something clicked withhim there...
don't flame me, after all, time will tell. But maybe there was something with that play that woke him up...

I'm not sure if something clicked but I hope you're right. That was a nice throw. I think that's the kind of thing he does well. When he can drop back, set his feet and make a quick throw in rhythm, he's usually just fine. It's everything else that gets him into trouble.

mansquatch wrote:Ponder was 11/17 yesterday. He had what I saw as two really bad plays. The first down INT was just a stupid throw. The sack where it was ruled he was down he got lucky on, but he should have tucked the ball. He also had two plays where the ball was delivered and his WR let him down, which included a bomb to Aromashadu that hit his shoulder pad. That should have been a monster TD, but Ponder's WR let him down. Wright dropped one that should have been caught. The slant to Jenkins for a 1st down was big time throw. Consistency and the head case issues are still there. Just pointing out that the pendulum swings both ways for Ponder.

However, we saw somethign that was IMO, far more demonstrative of where the team is at. AP had 30+ carries and they were routinely running on 1st and 2nd down. I know some will say they should be doing this after AP's 1st quarter. OK, I'll buy that to a point, do what works. However, after the 1st quarter AP wasn't as beastly and the Vikings were very one dimensional, running into 8 and 9 man fronts. My point is, the coaches kept calling those plays. That to me says Ponder's time is running out. AP is a beast, no question, but when they are facing alignments that scream pass and they are still handing it off it says the coaching staff doesn't have faith in the QB or the WR or both. (My guess is it is both)

Regardless, Ponder played well enough to not prevent a win. If Aroma play ends up being a catch, you might say he broke even with helping/hurting the team, but that is about it. Bottom line, he isn't making enough plays for them such that they have to let AP do all the work. Some of that is on the WR, but I'd argue not enough for the Vikings to not start thinking about drafting another QB or signing a veteran.

I thought Ponder played okay, near a 65% completion rate on what he was ASKED to do and like you said, if we have Brandon Marshal or someone else to make that catch Aromashadu made about zero effort on his stats would have been more than fine and we win by 2 TD's

Why they wanted to run the football so much... well I think that's obvious, they wanted to win and we had a two touchdown lead for quite a while. I still see the O-line far too often pushed into the pocket and giving up too much pressure and no one is going to argue that without harvin we have the absolute worst WR's in the league and that was probably TRUE with Harvin. All in all it makes about zero sense to do anything BUT rely on AD.

He only had 17 attempts, so 3-5 of those passes isn't likely with that kind of limited opportunity to throw. Of course, he could be only be allowed to throw that much due to all the issues we've discussed and then some. So maybe the die is cast?

For me, my current take on Ponder is this: He is inconsistent and he is not giving them the plays from the QB position they need to be a consistent winner. I’ve played both sides plenty, been a supporter longer than most, but when I look at him rationally, that is my take. He doesn’t do enough to help the team win from his position, but the team wins anyway due to #28 and a vastly improved OL and Defense / Special Teams. We did see some winning plays out of him yesterday, the throw to Aroma and the slant to Jenkins, but we also saw the errors, like the Pick and the almost fumble. The hard part is we saw some big throws earlier in the season where he would get it done and give them some plays, much more so than his errors, but we haven’t seen that since week 4 or 5.

So at this point one might ask if early season/ 2011 Ponder was the aberration?

I think they’ll bring in a vet in the offseason. I suspect the leash will be far shorter in 2013, but I also think we’ll see him start. I have hope that given how smart he is he will take this season’s performance (and lack there of) and work to improve on the areas he needs to improve. I recall the quote from his QB coach about his consistency, so I’m sure Ponder knows what is wrong. I guess we’ll see if he can fix it.

It is surprising to me that Cutler only has about 100 more yards passing than Ponder, nearly the same QB rating, and a worse completion percentage. Yet he has Brandon Marshal who we've personally seen twice now to make a huge difference, and Ponder's best option, harvin is out.

Given that information, seems like Ponder isn't so bad after all. I remember a game not too long ago the WR's dropped like 6 passes, and the routine catch for just about any WR in the league dropped by aroma yesterday just adds to the fact that our WR's are dreadful.

Hopefully we get a top notch WR next year and I think we'll be alright.

mondry wrote:It is surprising to me that Cutler only has about 100 more yards passing than Ponder, nearly the same QB rating, and a worse completion percentage. Yet he has Brandon Marshal who we've personally seen twice now to make a huge difference, and Ponder's best option, harvin is out.

Given that information, seems like Ponder isn't so bad after all. I remember a game not too long ago the WR's dropped like 6 passes, and the routine catch for just about any WR in the league dropped by aroma yesterday just adds to the fact that our WR's are dreadful.

Hopefully we get a top notch WR next year and I think we'll be alright.

Cutler is still far superior and is limited to an offense that has a garbage, patchwork offensive line and 1.5 good receivers. He makes the same stupid mistakes that Ponder makes, it's just that he has a receiver who can bail him out of those dumb mistakes 7 times out of 10.