The Teddy Bridgewater Thread

[dead_poet]

By looking at where the ball is actually placed.

Let me know when they come out with that stat!

Isn't that what accuracy is about, placement of the ball on a pass? Some inaccurate passes get completed and some accurate passes are dropped. Completion percentage simply tells us which percentage of passes were caught, not how accurately they were thrown.

A ball must be thrown somewhat accurately to have a chance of being completed. It has to be in the vicinity of the receiver to make a play. Until we get another (better?) stat, completion percentage will be a measure of accuracy. I do agree that when measuring accuracy that drops and balls thrown away should be excluded.

Perhaps I'm mistaken. I couldn't find a pass distribution chart of his throws but it sure seems to me that he's thrown a lot of short passes (especially in 2014).

It's hard to say without going back and watching the tape of games and his attempts. Also it's important to realize that shorter passes may also be a product of what the defense is doing (lots of blitzes, for example) and how the line protects. In other words, Teddy may not always have time to consider throwing deep if he's already on the move or needing to release the ball quickly. I recall several years ago how Mike Martz almost got (Stafford? Cutler?) killed with all the five/seven-step drops he was taking with an abysmal line. So even if he's throwing relatively short an average amount of time compared to other QBs, that may be because he doesn't have time to see if a receiver is uncovered enough or long enough to let the route develop.

I also really hate to point this out in light of what I just posted about accuracy and completion percentage but yards per attempt doesn't measure the distance of passes thrown so YPA on its own doesn't tell us how often Bridgewater throws short. A short oascan sometimes provide a huge boost to a QB's YPA. For example, Wright's 87 yard catch and run against the Jets last season alone raised Bridgewater's YPA for the 2014 season from 7.1 to 7.3. That pass was completed behind the line of scrimmage but it had the statistical impact of a long, 87 yard bomb.

A less dramatic example would be the 9 yard throw to Diggs against the Bears that he turned into an approximately 40 yard TD (I forget the exact yardage). I'm not saying a 9 yard pass is a short pass, just illustrating that YPA doesn't really tell us about the distance of the throw.

You're right there. Here's an article from 2014 that might be of some use, where the author has discarded spikes, throwaways, batted balls, etc. and discusses average depth of target: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... ercentage/

Teddy Bridgewater (+3.6 percent) was clearly the top rookie quarterback of 2014 and this study just adds to his intrigue. Bridgewater sported the league’s sixth-lowest aDOT (7.9), but made up for the conservative play with the fourth-best aC% (71 percent).

Based on his 2014 play you are right in that Teddy wasn't overly aggressive throwing down the field. However his adjusted completion percentage was extremely high (of course this is likely because he was attempting higher percentage throws). However this is to be expected and if the choices are early in a career between Bridgewater's below-average ADOT/high aC% and above-average ADOT/below-average aC% (2014 Carr, 2014-2015 Bortles), I suppose I'd take the former. I can't quite find a site that does ADOT for 2015. Help there would be appreciated!

I hope so. I'm sure if his completion percentage was better we'd see some other improvement along with that. he definitely needs to get rid of the ball more quickly. In my opinion, he's playing QB at a backup-caliber level this season. That has to change.

He needs to play better, no question.

[Mothman]

That sounds right. I'm not sure what you're getting at here, though?

I was just answering your question. Earlier, when I wrote that Bridgewater throws a lot of short passes, you asked if he really does and pointed out, per the article, that he's thrown passes of 10 yards or more 9.6 times/game. It occurred to me that I could use that info to answer your question. If 1/3 of his passes are 10+ yards then it follows that 2/3 of his passes are under 10 yards. In other words, he does throw a lot of short passes.

[dead_poet]

I was just answering your question. Earlier, when I wrote that Bridgewater throws a lot of short passes, you asked if he really does and pointed out, per the article, that he's thrown passes of 10 yards or more 9.6 times/game. It occurred to me that I could use that info to answer your question. If 1/3 of his passes are 10+ yards then it follows that 2/3 of his passes are under 10 yards. In other words, he does throw a lot of short passes.

"A lot" in relation to what? The median? What's the median?

[Mothman]

Let me know when they come out with that stat!

I'd be surprised if some site like PFF or Outsiders didn't have it already.

A ball must be thrown somewhat accurately to have a chance of being completed. It has to be in the vicinity of the receiver to make a play. Until we get another (better?) stat, completion percentage will be a measure of accuracy. I do agree that when measuring accuracy that drops and balls thrown away should be excluded.

But that's not a distinction made by completion percentage stats, which don't differentiate between on-target throws, tipped balls, passes that required the receiver to dive, etc. either. I don't think we should simply say completion percentage measures accuracy because we don't have a stat that actually measures accuracy. Completion percentage measures completions. All it tells us about a throw is that it ended up being catchable.

I'm not trying to be difficult about this so if all you mean by "accurate" is that the ball needs to be in the vicinity of the receiver so he can catch it, let's just stipulate that or, even easier, simply use the term catchable instead of accurate.

It's hard to say without going back and watching the tape of games and his attempts. Also it's important to realize that shorter passes may also be a product of what the defense is doing (lots of blitzes, for example) and how the line protects. In other words, Teddy may not always have time to consider throwing deep if he's already on the move or needing to release the ball quickly. I recall several years ago how Mike Martz almost got (Stafford? Cutler?) killed with all the five/seven-step drops he was taking with an abysmal line. So even if he's throwing relatively short an average amount of time compared to other QBs, that may be because he doesn't have time to see if a receiver is uncovered enough or long enough to let the route develop.

I wasn't criticizing him for throwing short so a defense of his potential reasons for doing so is unnecessary. I simply pointed out that he throws a slot of short passes so he should have a good completion percentage.

Based on his 2014 play you are right in that Teddy wasn't overly aggressive throwing down the field. However his adjusted completion percentage was extremely high (of course this is likely because he was attempting higher percentage throws). However this is to be expected and if the choices are early in a career between Bridgewater's below-average ADOT/high aC% and above-average ADOT/below-average aC% (2014 Carr, 2014-2015 Bortles), I suppose I'd take the former. I can't quite find a site that does ADOT for 2015. Help there would be appreciated!

Other than PFF, I wouldn't know where to look. Maybe pro-footballreference.com tracks that stuff?

Thanks for the link.

He needs to play better, no question.

Yep... that's the bottom line.

[Mothman]

"A lot" in relation to what? The median? What's the median?

"A lot" as in "a great deal".

I have no idea what the median is for the league. In terms of the point I was making, I don't see why it matters. I made what I thought was a very simple point: a relatively substantial number of his passes are short passes therefore, he should have a pretty good completion percentage. As it turns out, 66% of the passes he's thrown this year are under 10 yards and he's completing close to that percentage of his passes. If he was making that many throws under 10 yards and his completion percentage was, for example, under 60%, I'd consider that cause for concern because a competent QB should be able to complete the majority of those shorter throws.

[losperros]

I'm not trying to be difficult about this so if all you mean by "accurate" is that the ball needs to be in the vicinity of the receiver so he can catch it, let's just stipulate that or, even easier, simply use the term catchable instead of accurate.

I think catchable is a good point. A quarterback's accuracy really does depend on throwing a ball that a receiver can catch, despite what his completion percentage stats say. Not only that, the receivers must take a lion's share of the blame when a catchable pass isn't caught. After all, it's their job to make a play on the ball when necessary. OTOH, if the ball isn't catchable, then what chance does a receiver have?

This is why I'm not so quick to come down on Wallace yet. Some of the passes coming his way simply aren't catchable. At least that's how I see it.

I wasn't criticizing him for throwing short so a defense of his potential reasons for doing so is unnecessary. I simply pointed out that he throws a slot of short passes so he should have a good completion percentage.

I agree. The Vikings implement a lot of short and safe passes, which should be more readily catchable than heaving passes downfield. Anyway, I don't always agree with the team's short pass philosophy, mostly because I don't think it's been that effective overall. But is it a philosophy of preference or of need? Could Bridgewater's difficulties throwing deep be limiting the passing game? I would have to say yes, given what I've seen so far this season.

There are a lot of fixes needed in the passing game. I think being able to more consistently complete medium to deep passes sure would help things.

[Mothman]

I think catchable is a good point. A quarterback's accuracy really does depend on throwing a ball that a receiver can catch, despite what his completion percentage stats say. Not only that, the receivers must take a lion's share of the blame when a catchable pass isn't caught. After all, it's their job to make a play on the ball when necessary. OTOH, if the ball isn't catchable, then what chance does a receiver have?

This is why I'm not so quick to come down on Wallace yet. Some of the passes coming his way simply aren't catchable. At least that's how I see it.

I see it that way as well.

I agree. The Vikings implement a lot of short and safe passes, which should be more readily catchable than heaving passes downfield. Anyway, I don't always agree with the team's short pass philosophy, mostly because I don't think it's been that effective overall. But is it a philosophy of preference or of need? Could Bridgewater's difficulties throwing deep be limiting the passing game? I would have to say yes, given what I've seen so far this season.

There are a lot of fixes needed in the passing game. I think being able to more consistently complete medium to deep passes sure would help things.

I agree You can see, when watching games, that defenses aren't showing enough respect for the downfield passing game. It's still primarily about stopping Peterson and the Vikes still don't punish them enough for it. It's practically the story of AD's career.

[PsyDanny]

I see it that way as well.
I agree You can see, when watching games, that defenses aren't showing enough respect for the downfield passing game. It's still primarily about stopping Peterson and the Vikes still don't punish them enough for it. It's practically the story of AD's career.

And if only they could, the Vikings might be a down right scary team to play against. And a heck of a lot of fun for us fans (not to say that Vikings fandom is on the up this year, none the less).

[DK Sweets]

"A lot" as in "a great deal".

I have no idea what the median is for the league. In terms of the point I was making, I don't see why it matters. I made what I thought was a very simple point: a relatively substantial number of his passes are short passes therefore, he should have a pretty good completion percentage. As it turns out, 66% of the passes he's thrown this year are under 10 yards and he's completing close to that percentage of his passes. If he was making that many throws under 10 yards and his completion percentage was, for example, under 60%, I'd consider that cause for concern because a competent QB should be able to complete the majority of those shorter throws.

I wish I had time to look up these numbers. My gut reaction is that based in the numbers DP posted above, nearly every QB throws 60-70% of their passes short. Even though the passes only have to travel 10 yards, the completion percentages aren't high because NFL defenses are really athletic.

I would think that reading the defenses and making tight throws (which it looks like Teddy as done well to me, but again, I come empty handed with stats) takes a different kind of accuracy than throwing a deep ball.

As an example of that point, I would say Mike Vick can throw a beautiful deep ball. Conversely, he would really suck in New England's underneath passing offense. So while Teddy and Vick are both inaccurate, it's a completely different type of inaccuracy.

[Mothman]

I wish I had time to look up these numbers. My gut reaction is that based in the numbers DP posted above, nearly every QB throws 60-70% of their passes short. Even though the passes only have to travel 10 yards, the completion percentages aren't high because NFL defenses are really athletic.

I imagine most NFL QBs are throwing 60-70% of their passes short. That's probably a fair assumption. NFL defenses definitely keep the percentages down.

I would think that reading the defenses and making tight throws (which it looks like Teddy as done well to me, but again, I come empty handed with stats) takes a different kind of accuracy than throwing a deep ball.

I think accuracy is accuracy but sure, a short or medium throw into a tight window is definitely a different type of throw than a deep route down the seam or sidelines.

I don't think Bridgewater's consistently accurate on any of it. I don't mean consistent to the point of perfection, just consistent. His accuracy is worse on deep throws but he throws too many intermediate routes inaccurately (usually high) and sometimes he even makes the short passes an adventure.

[dead_poet]

I don't think Bridgewater's consistently accurate on any of it.

Tell us how you really feel, Jim!

[Mothman]

Tell us how you really feel, Jim!

Well, it's frustrating!

However, I'm happier now because you used the whistling emoji.

[PurpleKoolaid]

Carr has a receiving corps of Crabtree and Copper. Crabtree is excellent, a great route runner. Wallace in BBII. All i see Wallace do is an occasion fly route where he looks like he is in Miami, giving it a half assed effort. We have Diggs. Wallace and Teddy aernt hopking up for whatever reason, like Wallace not making adjustments in the routes, giving up on the route, getting tangled up with the DB, etc. As much as everyone like to blame Teddy, its not always his fault if the friggin ball isnt perfectly on target every time. And when it is a beautiful throw, hardly anyone manages, cause they are aready getting get for the next bad Teddy throw.

Oh, and lets compare the Raiders Oline to ours. Hows a 22(maybe 23 by now) kid supposed to learn whatever the crap Norv is trying to teach him. Im going to be honest, I would be happy if Norv was no long our OC although hes an OC god....that keeps getting fired or moving to HC, where he gets fired.

[fiestavike]

Carr has a receiving corps of Crabtree and Copper. Crabtree is excellent, a great route runner. Wallace in BBII. All i see Wallace do is an occasion fly route where he looks like he is in Miami, giving it a half assed effort. We have Diggs. Wallace and Teddy aernt hopking up for whatever reason, like Wallace not making adjustments in the routes, giving up on the route, getting tangled up with the DB, etc. As much as everyone like to blame Teddy, its not always his fault if the friggin ball isnt perfectly on target every time. And when it is a beautiful throw, hardly anyone manages, cause they are aready getting get for the next bad Teddy throw.

Oh, and lets compare the Raiders Oline to ours. Hows a 22(maybe 23 by now) kid supposed to learn whatever the crap Norv is trying to teach him. Im going to be honest, I would be happy if Norv was no long our OC although hes an OC god....that keeps getting fired or moving to HC, where he gets fired.

[Mothman]

I followed a tweet from Matt Vensel to this article from the San Francisco Chronicle:

Raiders’ Derek Carr outpacing Vikings’ Teddy Bridgewater

The article is complimentary to both QBs but it does contain this:

Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater will always be linked, as either one of their teams could have drafted the other quarterback in 2014. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said in a conference call that he is “very happy” with Bridgewater, and the Raiders have watched Carr throw 11 touchdowns the past three games.

But many executives and experts around the league think Minnesota, which will see Carr live Sunday in Oakland, must be kicking itself.

“Carr is a big-time quarterback,” NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell said. “The Raiders are telling you what he is, because they are expanding their passing game on a weekly basis.

“Carr is a big-time arm talent. Bridgewater is an average arm talent. Now Teddy’s poised and understands where to go with the ball, but there are 31 teams who would take Carr and only one that would take Bridgewater.”

All 31 teams didn’t answer our calls, but eight executives did and agreed with Cosell. They didn’t want to be named, with one adding, “The Raiders have their winning quarterback for a long, long time.”

There's also this from SI's Doug Farrar:

Farrar said Bridgewater was his No. 1 overall draft prospect last year, and paused when asked if he would take Carr over him now.

“Teddy needs more help,” Farrar said. “He doesn’t have the targets that Carr has, but he has all the tools you need.”