Texas Vike wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:42 am
J. Kapp 11 wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2019 4:01 pm
Y'all arguing about #3 WRs ... you need to take a look at Gary Kubiak's history (and let's not kid ourselves -- Stefanski is the OC, but this will be Kubiak's offense).
Kubiak doesn't run a lot of 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers). He just doesn't. Look at the teams he's coached. In 20+ seasons as either a head coach or an OC, Kubiak's teams targed the tight end about 1/4th of the time. That is a fact. He uses a lot of 2 tight end sets, and with Irv Smith on board, he'll do that here. That's why Smith was drafted. It's the scouting report on him -- teams that run 2 TE sets will love the guy.
What does that do to the #3 WR? It diminishes the value of him. Doesn't make him irrelevant, but it diminished his value. It's inarguable, given Kubiak's history.
It also makes Kyle Rudolph less expendable, perhaps indispensable for 2019. Smith isn't ready to be the primary tight end in a 1 tight end set, and that's not what Kubiak runs a lot of, anyway.
This isn't what I think. It's not a statement of my opinion on how our offense should be run. It's just a factual analysis of Gary Kubiak's history as an offensive coach. You're going to see a lot of Rudy and Smith on the field, less of Treadwell or Beebe or whomever else the Vikings trot out there at #3 WR.
Not sure what's up with the board, but I get an internal error msg when I try to rep you, so I'll just say it here: this is the best post I've read on this board in the past few months and it sure explains what the Vikes did in this year's draft. There was a marked difference this year--more focus on offense and signs of a clear vision (finally!) on what kinds of players make sense for the offense we intend to run. This is what we started to see in the drafts on the defense after hiring Zimmer; Now we're finally seeing a logical, comprehensive plan taking shape on O and it's exciting.
Thank you.
Here's what prompted me to start looking into this. The draft, on its face value, didn't make sense to me. Obviously Garrett Bradbury made sense, but nothing else did. I'd seen that Irv Smith was basically a first-round talent at TE. I was wondering if the Vikings might take Noah Fant if he was available (he was) but they passed in favor of Bradbury, so I thought maybe tight end wasn't a position of concern because I figured Smith would be gone by the time the Vikings picked in Round 2. But he was still available, so they took Smith. They followed that with all the trading in the third round to end up with Mattison. I was confused, but I thought there MUST be a reason for it. So I started really digging into Gary Kubiak.
First, let's address the question of why Zimmer didn't just hire Kubiak as his OC.
There's a very simple answer. Kubiak was still employed by the Broncos, and all indications were that he was going to remain employed by the Broncos. But then something interesting happened. Kubiak started Jonesing to get out of the front office and back on the field, so he requested as much of John Elway. Initial reports had him becoming the Broncos' OC. But new head coach Vic Fangio didn't want Kubiak as an on-field coach, so the Broncos reversed course, deciding to keep Kubiak in the front office. At THAT point, Kubiak resigned from the Broncos. The Vikings had already named Kevin Stefanski as OC, but Zimmer, who was friends with Kubiak, knew his value and called him up. Not long after, the Vikings hired Kubiak, giving him the offensive consultant thingy whatever title. Kubiak gets what he wants -- another chance to coach on the field, without the rigors head coaching that cost him his health. The Vikings get an experienced, successful guy to mentor their young OC. Gary Kubiak, as he has stated in interviews, doesn't care about titles or position. He loves to coach, period.
Further, let's think about this. You have a guy with 22 years as a successful OC and head coach, with four Super Bowl rings and an NFL Coach of the Year award on his resume. You're teaming him with a first-year OC. It just makes sense. This is going to be Kubiak's offense.
But if you need even more proof, read on.
If you look deep into this, here's what you'll discover about Gary Kubiak's offensive system.
1. He runs to set up the pass. That's the polar opposite of John DeFilippo, and exactly what Mike Zimmer wants.
2. He runs zone blocking, both in the running game and to set up the passing game. That requires a certain kind of O-lineman. Athletic, good feet, good lateral movement, not necessarily the biggest guys but the ones who can move diagonally. That's Kline (305 pounds ... not massive for a guard). That's Bradbury. That's Elflein. That's O'Neill. That's Samia. And when you consider that Riley Reiff played for Kirk Ferentz at Iowa -- another zone blocking guy -- that's Reiff.
3. Tight ends catch a lot of balls. WR1 and WR2 are the most-targeted guys in a Kubiak offense. No surprise there. But next comes the tight ends (plural ... Kubiak runs a LOT of 12 personnel) at about 25% of targets. Then comes the backs, and ONLY THEN comes WR3. Why? Because he doesn't run much 11 personnel. Therefore, WR3 isn't that important.
4. The quarterback in Kubiak's offense gets protected. In the season before Kubiak took over in Houston, David Carr was sacked 68 times. During Kubiak's first year as head coach, that number dropped to 41. By the time Matt Schaub took over the following year, Schaub was sacked just 16 times. Schaub isn't exactly the second coming of Michael Vick, and the Texans didn't have a lot of big-name linemen drafted in the first round. Kubiak, a stickler for details on the O-line, simply knows what he's doing. Where DeFilippo always said things like, "We've got to figure out how to keep the quarterback upright," Kubiak already knows.
5. The quarterback in Kubiak's offense operates primarily from under center, and Kubiak utilizes play-action passing as well or better than any coach in the league. That plays directly into Kirk Cousins' strengths -- he completed 75.2% of his throws off play-action in 2018.
6. Running backs in Kubiak's system need to be of the one-cut variety. In zone blocking, handoffs are typically stretch handoffs, with the back running nearly parallel to the line of scrimmage. The linemen block diagonally, taking whoever comes into their zone. When the hole opens, the back has to plant and go -- one cut. Breakaway speed is nice, but it's not imperative. What IS imperative is the ability to wait for the hole, then shoot through it. Apparently Alexander Mattison has that ability. It also helps that he (and Dalvin Cook) can catch, since the running back group will get more targets than the WR3 group.
7. Two positions routinely thrive under Kubiak -- running back and quarterback. Doesn't matter if they were all-pros before Kubiak ... they typically have great seasons under him. It's a 22-year trend. Examples: Matt Schaub and Arian Foster in Houston. Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett in Baltimore. John Elway and Terrell Davis in Denver (obviously Elway was a Hall-of-Famer by the time Kubiak coached him, but TD was a forgotten 6th-round running back). T.J. Yates in the 2011 playoffs. As quarterbacks coach for the 49ers, Steve Young had the best season of his HOF career. With Kubiak as the OC from 1995-2005, the Denver Broncos amassed more yards and touchdowns than any team in the NFL during that time period.
Taken from the point of view of Kubiak's track record, both free agency and the draft begin to make sense. Gary Kubiak and Kevin Stefanski are looking for athletic offensive linemen who can get out in space and get to the second level. They're looking for an athletic, downfield complement at tight end to Kyle Rudolph. And they're looking for one-cut backs who can also catch the ball. They got all those ingredients.
How do we know this will be Gary Kubiak's offense? There's your answer. Look at the required attributes of players in his system. Then look at the characteristics of the guys the Vikings drafted (and signed in free agency). It's a spot-on match.
The big question will be how long it takes the Vikings personnel to learn and master the system.
Let's be straight here. If you're looking for the next Sean McVay, you're going to be disappointed. Kubiak's offenses aren't high-wire like LA or KC. However, history shows that they're efficient, and they score touchdowns. My hope is that the Vikings become an efficient offensive team. Take care of the football, score touchdowns instead of field goals, and have some balance. With our defense, that's all we need to get back into the playoff picture.
