Re: Tavon Austin is a must for Minn...
Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 2:12 pm
The problem with forcing WR at our pick is there are no legit #1 WR's imo. That means #2 type guys like Austin, Patterson, and Allen are already over valued in the first round and are already a reach at their projected draft timing which is in the first round. For example, if AJ green and Julio Jones were in this draft, those guys would instantly be 2nd rounders at best. We see this more evidently in QB's but it also happens in WR's. However, there are a few WR's beyond Austin, Patterson, and Allen who aren't that much worse prospect wise with a much more "fair" draft positioning. I don't care if we can get the 3rd or 4th best WR with our pick because I don't think the 3rd or 4th best WR's are worth a first round pick. But, the 5th and 6th best receivers, who are not far behind the 3rd and 4th, is fair value as a second rounder. As Jim said it's all about perspective anyway. The 7th best prospect WR might end up being THE BEST NFL WR in the long term!
For another example, I'll use a rating system out of 100 and this is how I rate the players as overall prospects. Megatron would grade out at say 97, AJ Green 93, Julio jones 91, Austin 85, Patterson 82, Allen 81. Beyond them though, Hopkins, Woods, and a couple other Wr's would all probably grade out between 78-80 but do not command 1st round picks. I can't predict the future but you have to imagine Austin and Patterson will be gone by our picks, so now do you think Allen is worth a first rounder, who's currently banged up with knee and hamstring problems, who didn't run at the combine or his pro day? Is that 81 rating worth a first round pick compared to an 80 rating in the 2nd round? How about a 77-78 rated player in the 3rd? Jarius Wright was taken in the 4th round and while he was playing, he made a big impact but he was one of the guys people are saying now isn't worth a look! His rating would probably have been around 75. Keep in mind these ratings are based on their college careers and guesses on how they will translate into the pro game.
For a first round pick, a prospect score needs to be at least 85 in my opinion, that means for me, the only Wr I'd feel comfortable taking with one of our picks is Austin, beyond that, I'd much rather have a LB, CB, DT, S, or G that rates out at 85+ and if the BPA's happen to be DE, RB, or QB then trading down is the best option.
All we have to do is look back at last year. Michael Floyd, 13th over all, 562 yards, 2 TD's, 16 games played, about 35 yards per game. Jarius Wright, 118th overall, 310 yards, 2 TD's, played in 7 games, about 44 yards per game. As you can see, Wright out performed Floyd based on averages, but now we have to look at the opportunity cost. Instead of Harrison Smith we just have Stephen Hill cause he was the "best WR available" at 252 yards receiving, 3 TD's, and 11 games played, about 22 yards per game. No matter how much anyone -thinks- WR is a "need" you simply don't FORCE the pick. The Vikings are a much better team now by getting the best players available with their picks in Harrison smith and Jarius Wright, compared to overpaying on an over hyped WR just because it might be the biggest "need" and the herd mentality is "WR's are good!"
For another example, I'll use a rating system out of 100 and this is how I rate the players as overall prospects. Megatron would grade out at say 97, AJ Green 93, Julio jones 91, Austin 85, Patterson 82, Allen 81. Beyond them though, Hopkins, Woods, and a couple other Wr's would all probably grade out between 78-80 but do not command 1st round picks. I can't predict the future but you have to imagine Austin and Patterson will be gone by our picks, so now do you think Allen is worth a first rounder, who's currently banged up with knee and hamstring problems, who didn't run at the combine or his pro day? Is that 81 rating worth a first round pick compared to an 80 rating in the 2nd round? How about a 77-78 rated player in the 3rd? Jarius Wright was taken in the 4th round and while he was playing, he made a big impact but he was one of the guys people are saying now isn't worth a look! His rating would probably have been around 75. Keep in mind these ratings are based on their college careers and guesses on how they will translate into the pro game.
For a first round pick, a prospect score needs to be at least 85 in my opinion, that means for me, the only Wr I'd feel comfortable taking with one of our picks is Austin, beyond that, I'd much rather have a LB, CB, DT, S, or G that rates out at 85+ and if the BPA's happen to be DE, RB, or QB then trading down is the best option.
All we have to do is look back at last year. Michael Floyd, 13th over all, 562 yards, 2 TD's, 16 games played, about 35 yards per game. Jarius Wright, 118th overall, 310 yards, 2 TD's, played in 7 games, about 44 yards per game. As you can see, Wright out performed Floyd based on averages, but now we have to look at the opportunity cost. Instead of Harrison Smith we just have Stephen Hill cause he was the "best WR available" at 252 yards receiving, 3 TD's, and 11 games played, about 22 yards per game. No matter how much anyone -thinks- WR is a "need" you simply don't FORCE the pick. The Vikings are a much better team now by getting the best players available with their picks in Harrison smith and Jarius Wright, compared to overpaying on an over hyped WR just because it might be the biggest "need" and the herd mentality is "WR's are good!"
I don't see much unity when it comes to evaluating the receivers in this draft and I'm guessing there will be some heated debates about them as the Vikes are putting together their board.
It will be a fun draft!