I read that this morning and frankly, it's a pretty lousy article. Goessling talks about the risk of failure in the coordinator pool but doesn't define "failure" or provide any information about how the risk in that pool compares to the risk in choosing a coach from any other.
For the sake of discussion, let's set the bar pretty high and say "success" for a head coach equals reaching the Super Bowl. Here are the basic backgrounds of the head coaches who have accomplished that feat since 2000:
John Harbaugh: former special teams coach
Jim Harbaugh: former college head coach, never a coordinator
Tom Coughlin: former college head coach, NFL assistant (never a coordinator, as far as I can tell)
Bill Belichick: former defensive coordinator
Mike McCarthy: former offensive coordinator
Mike Tomlin: former defensive coordinator
Sean Payton: former offensive coordinator
Jim Caldwell: former QB coach, never a coordinator prior to reaching Super Bowl as HC
Ken Whisenhunt: former offensive coordinator
Tony Dungy: former defensive coordinator
Lovie Smith: former defensive coordinator
Bill Cowher: former defensive coordinator
Mike Holmgren: former offensive coordinator
Andy Reid: former position coach, never a coordinator
John Fox: former defensive coordinator
Jon Gruden: former offensive coordinator
Bill Callahan: former offensive coordinator
Mike Martz: former offensive coordinator
Brian Billick: former offensive coordinator
Jim Fassel: former offensive coordinator
There are 20 head coaches on that list. All but 5 were coordinators, and that's if we don't consider John Harbaugh a coordinator since he was a special teams coach. All of the Super Bowl winners on the list were former coordinators except John Harbaugh and Tom Coughlin.
There are 9 former offensive coordinators on the list and 6 former defensive coordinators.
Choosing a former coordinator as a head coach clearly doesn't hurt a team's chance to be successful. There's an argument to be made that choosing a coach with head coaching experience might help but there's not a strong correlation to suggest that gives a team a better chance to win it all than hiring a former coordinator. It's really all about finding the right person and building the right team, not about the candidate's previous job title.
