Vikings Message Board.Com

An Even More Accurate Strength of Schedule? Use Projected Regular Season Wins

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/bl ... eason-wins

San Fran is not likely to be what they were 2 seasons ago. The strength of that defense was the great linebackers and DL. Patrick Willis has retired and his backup has quit football. Bowman is coming back from a season long recovery from knee surgery, will he be the same? On Offense they have lost Frank Gore and some of their OL. Plus they lost their Coach. It is a road game, so it will not be a gimme.

Detroit, IMO, is an opportunity for two wins for the Vikings. Our biggest challenge with them last season was the mismatch between their DL and our OL. They have lost Suh and Fairley to Free Agency. Our OL hasn't improved, but IMO, there is no replacing Suh and Fairley, so that mismatch should not be as steep as it was last season. IMO, that bodes well for us.

Chicago lost Brandon Marshall, which should ease the matchup difficulties we've had against them in our secondary since now there will only be one basketball player at WR to defend.

GB is going to be tough so long as Rogers is healthy.

I think we have a real shot to be 4-2 in the division, but it is not a given. AFC and NFC west are a tough draw for sure. IMO we are underdogs against SEA, DEN, AZ, and GB. We are possibly underdogs against SD, KC, and maybe SF. That is half the schedule. Of course, there is no way to know which team will fall off and which will come on. DEN could choke it this year, so could SEA. Maybe Rogers gets hurt? Who knows?

I think the Vikings have a shot at being competitive this year. If the Defense maintains it's trajectory of improvement and AP comes back and is able to be a force, we are a tough matchup for anyone since we can play defense and effectively rush the ball. That won't be enough to get us to the playoffs, but it is a strong foundation.



Frankly I think if our record improves it will quite an accomplishment given this schedule.

Frankly, I think the Lions' losses are being overblown. Suh is great, but Ngata is a fantastic true NT. Fairly has all the potential in the world, but he hasn't been a consistently great player. I think beating the Lions is doable, but it has more to do with my faith in our roster than what I think their roster has lost.

Ben Goessling's game-by-game predictions for the Vikings season:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... ta-vikings

I think Goessling has a fairly solid take.

I think people are over estimating Detroit this season. Suh /Fairley/ Ansah made them arguably the best DL is football, of which Suh was the centerpiece. Ngata is good, but he is not Suh. That bodes well for the Vikings as that matchup was perhaps the most lopsided of the entire season in 2014. I think stealing two from them is going to be a challenge, but I do not think we'll lose both games against them.

I think we have a reasonably chance to steal one from the Packers this year. I think beating the Bears twice, despite their state of disarray, will be a tall order.

Regardless, I think 9-7 is probably about right, with an outside chance at 10-6 or even 11-5 depending on whether they steal a game and over achieve somewhere.

mansquatch wrote:I think Goessling has a fairly solid take.

I think people are over estimating Detroit this season. Suh /Fairley/ Ansah made them arguably the best DL is football, of which Suh was the centerpiece. Ngata is good, but he is not Suh. That bodes well for the Vikings as that matchup was perhaps the most lopsided of the entire season in 2014. I think stealing two from them is going to be a challenge, but I do not think we'll lose both games against them.

I think we have a reasonably chance to steal one from the Packers this year. I think beating the Bears twice, despite their state of disarray, will be a tall order.

Regardless, I think 9-7 is probably about right, with an outside chance at 10-6 or even 11-5 depending on whether they steal a game and over achieve somewhere.

I'm much more inclined to see the Vikes as an 8-8 or 7-9 team, although it depends on what happens with Peterson and what sort of impact they can get from their draft picks. The latter is a factor that will obviously affect the rest of the division too.

I don't think the Lions will take a big step back on defense but I do think they'll take a step back. I see the Bears as a team that's more likely coming out of disarray than remaining in it. I think they'll take a step forward this season under a new GM and coaching staff (probably not a BIG step, but I expect better than 5-11 from them). Sadly, I can't shake the feeling that's it's the Vikings who are actually being overrated in the division. Amidst all the talk about them being a team on the rise and improving down the stretch last year, it's easy to forget that they finished 3-4 after the bye and that included an overtime win against the Jets (who finished 4-12) and an unimpressive 13-9 victory over the Bears. Do people realize not one of the teams the Vikes beat last year had a winning record at the end of the season and only Carolina finished with more than 6 wins? I'd feel a lot better about the Vikings if they had managed at least one impressive win over a quality opponent last season.

I don't mean to sound so down on the team. The Vikes should be able to play competitively against all of their division foes and 9-7 or better isn't out of the question. They're just going to have to convince me they're a good, winning football team. I get the impression they're going to rely heavily on the development of their younger players as the primary means to improve and I admire their commitment to that approach so I hope it works. There's obviously a lot riding on Bridgewater's development, in particular.

Mothman wrote:Sadly, I can't shake the feeling that's it's the Vikings who are actually being overrated in the division. Amidst all the talk about them being a team on the rise and improving down the stretch last year, it's easy to forget that they finished 3-4 after the bye and that included an overtime win against the Jets (who finished 4-12) and an unimpressive 13-9 victory over the Bears. Do people realize not one of the teams the Vikes beat last year had a winning record at the end of the season and only Carolina finished with more than 6 wins? I'd feel a lot better about the Vikings if they had managed at least one impressive win over a quality opponent last season.

How about looking at it this way, Jim: After Week 6, the Vikings lost their last five games by a total of 16 points, or an average of only 3.2 points. They were competitive and could have won a few more with a couple more plays (I know, wudda-coulda-shoulda). The beat the Panthers by 18 points, who finished the year with five straight wins, including a 27-16 playoff win vs. the Cardinals. They (the Panthers) averaged 27.6 points per game and beat the Saints 41-10 the week after the Vikings and then knocked off the Falcons 34-3.

I don't mean to sound so down on the team. The Vikes should be able to play competitively against all of their division foes and 9-7 or better isn't out of the question. They're just going to have to convince me they're a good, winning football team. I get the impression they're going to rely heavily on the development of their younger players as the primary means to improve and I admire their commitment to that approach so I hope it works. There's obviously a lot riding on Bridgewater's development, in particular.

Meh, you're a Vikings fan. Usually the longer you are one the more we'll say realistic become your expectations. They're bound to let us down, but I'll be darned if they don't find new, creative ways to do it every year. So that's something. I don't think anyone here realistically expects a Super Bowl this season, but as the season goes on I'm guessing expectations or hope (especially early) may be a Wild Card spot. Depending on how this season goes, if they can show a visible sign towards improvement I'll be hoping for a legit playoff chance in 2016, provided Rick can land a few more pieces via the next two drafts and free agency while resigning core players.

dead_poet wrote:How about looking at it this way, Jim: After Week 6, the Vikings lost their last five games by a total of 16 points, or an average of only 3.2 points. They were competitive and could have won a few more with a couple more plays (I know, wudda-coulda-shoulda). The beat the Panthers by 18 points, who finished the year with five straight wins, including a 27-16 playoff win vs. the Cardinals. They (the Panthers) averaged 27.6 points per game and beat the Saints 41-10 the week after the Vikings and then knocked off the Falcons 34-3.

That's definitely a nicer way to look at it!

Meh, you're a Vikings fan. Usually the longer you are one the more we'll say realistic become your expectations. They're bound to let us down, but I'll be darned if they don't find new, creative ways to do it every year. So that's something.

You can say that again.

I don't think anyone here realistically expects a Super Bowl this season, but as the season goes on I'm guessing expectations or hope (especially early) may be a Wild Card spot. Depending on how this season goes, if they can show a visible sign towards improvement I'll be hoping for a legit playoff chance in 2016, provided Rick can land a few more pieces via the next two drafts and free agency while resigning core players.

That's about where I'm at. I can't bring myself to expect a BIG step forward this season, although you never know. If they can fight their way to a Wild Card spot, that would make me pretty happy and much more optimistic about their future. I think I'm particularly "on guard" after the last two years, because I was feeling so good about the team after 2012 and two years of hard-fought games, with too many losses in games where the Vikes just couldn't finish, has apparently left me feeling a bit jaded. I think you're right to point to the next two drafts because they seem crucial to me. In fact, I think I'll feel much better about the 2015 Vikes if they come out of the upcoming draft with a few players who look like they could have a real, immediate impact.

I'm hoping Barr and Bridgewater both take steps toward becoming stars this season. That would help immensely!

I think the win over the Panthers was a big win due to the streak they(panthers) were on...but it's really the only one I can recall that was impressive in that sense.

I'm not convinced the Vikes record last season was the best indicator of the strength of the team. The o-line injuries and the loss of AD, Rudolph and Cassel created quite a hurdle for them being a young team trying to develop. Obviously, injuries are a fact of life in the league and the other teams in the division are prone to them too.

I think there is quite a bit of unguarded optimism on the board for the upcoming season and there is a lot of positives going on for that to occur. But the team really is unproven and anything can happen either way.

I find it really tough to get any kind of concrete feel for the upcoming campaign. It could be a great year or a middling year record wise IMO. There's just so many unknowns with this young roster.

The Breeze wrote:I think there is quite a bit of unguarded optimism on the board for the upcoming season

Speak for yourself. My optimism is extremely guarded. It's covered in a suit of Adamantium behind a lava moat filled with laser sharks and water velociraptors.

I find it really tough to get any kind of concrete feel for the upcoming campaign. It could be a great year or a middling year record wise IMO. There's just so many unknowns with this young roster.

Yep. That's what's kind of fun about it all. And the draft hasn't even happened yet!

dead_poet wrote: Speak for yourself. My optimism is extremely guarded. It's covered in a suit of Adamantium behind a lava moat filled with laser sharks and water velociraptors.
Yep. That's what's kind of fun about it all. And the draft hasn't even happened yet!

googling adamantium

The Breeze wrote:I think the win over the Panthers was a big win due to the streak they(panthers) were on...but it's really the only one I can recall that was impressive in that sense.

I'm not convinced the Vikes record last season was the best indicator of the strength of the team. The o-line injuries and the loss of AD, Rudolph and Cassel created quite a hurdle for them being a young team trying to develop. Obviously, injuries are a fact of life in the league and the other teams in the division are prone to them too.

I think there is quite a bit of unguarded optimism on the board for the upcoming season and there is a lot of positives going on for that to occur. But the team really is unproven and anything can happen either way.

I find it really tough to get any kind of concrete feel for the upcoming campaign. It could be a great year or a middling year record wise IMO. There's just so many unknowns with this young roster.

If you have unguarded optimism for the Vikings you haven't been a fan very long.

The team could be up 21-3 in the Superbowl with 2 minutes to play and my optimism would still be guarded.

This may be the only time of year Vikings fans can be optimistic though, I just kind of ride with it.

The Breeze wrote: googling adamantium

It's what coats Wolverines bones man, get your head in the game.

Cliff wrote: you have unguarded optimism for the Vikings you haven't been a fan very long.

The team could be up 21-3 in the Superbowl with 2 minutes to play and my optimism would still be guarded.

That's the truth, Cliff. I'd be the same way (and I hope I get to have that exact experience soon!)

I'm still laughing at "laser sharks"...

Cliff wrote: If you have unguarded optimism for the Vikings you haven't been a fan very long.

The team could be up 21-3 in the Superbowl with 2 minutes to play and my optimism would still be guarded.

This may be the only time of year Vikings fans can be optimistic though, I just kind of ride with it.

I certainly don't have unguarded optimism I've been engaged in this torture since the early 70's.....I just notice a lot of pie in the sky expectations for this years team......but I do get the sentiment for it due to the youth and new coaches and such.