Mothman wrote:
I don't disagree that playcalling matters and in a very indirect sort of way, I suppose you can say it led to that strip sack but that sack occurred on 3rd and 6 and the Vikings kept 7 players back in protection on that play. Teams are going to get into 3rd and 6 situations over the course of games, regardless of the playcalling on first and second down, and they have to be able to execute in those situations, don't you agree? I can't blame the outcome of that series on the playcalling. In fact, I think that play is a great example of the kind of poor execution that has killed the Vikes all year. Loadholt and Gerhart both completely ignored the outside pressure from the right, giving that Bengals defender a free path to Cassel, who either didn't see him or didn't react quickly enough to the pressure to get rid of the ball or sufficiently protect it. The players have to be able to execute better than that on 3rd and 6. After all, it's not like it was 3rd and 14...
Just re-watched the play on game rewind like 25 times, we miss 2 big blocks on this play when they rush 6 while keeping 7 in to block. The odd thing is, I can't really figure out who to blame on this one. Sullivan comes out of his stance to try and block the guy on his right, giving a free pass to the guy right up the middle. I think this is by design because Toby immediately darts towards the middle to pick that guy up off the snap while paying zero attention to the extra rusher on the right side. It's worth mentioning that he fails miserably. In the mean time, Loadholt and the right guard block the guys directly in front of them, again leaving the outside rusher unaccounted for.
What I -think- they were trying to do is give the guy up the middle a free pass and have toby pick him up. Sullivan would block the guy in front of the right guard while the guard slides over and takes loadholt's man, then loadholt would pick up the outside rusher. Maybe that's an execution thing but this honestly seems like a bad blocking call or assignments or whatever it is you call it for the offensive line. It seems much more simpler to me anyway to just have sullivan clog up the defender in the middle, the guard and RT block the two in front of them, and then have Gerhart pick up the free rusher on the right.
There doesn't seem to be a hot route either for Cassel to go in this kind of disaster. All the Wr's still have their backs turned running deeper routes when he needs a target it seems like. If you have game rewind (i think you do right?) check this play out and see if you come to the conclusion I did about the blocking.
It's not but I don't think they rely on those extremes. As you pointed out, look at the playcalling on the third series. they didn't rely on either extreme there and it was effective but if that sort of playcalling was all they did, it wouldn't remain effective either. You have to make the defense defend the whole field.
No they don't rely on those extremes, they just use them every now and then. I'm just not that sure about the end of that statement though. As we've seen, even a 20 yard pass in the air can turn into that 39 yard touch down when the defender is beat that badly. I don't think it's that easy to defend 1-20 yards down the field, even if you knew it was coming.
I don't think it's a ""blow the top off of the defense" on a regular basis kind of offense but I do think they're capable of connecting on some of those deep throws.
Seriously, there's no chance at all they actually complete a pass like that? Their best case scenario is pass interference? That's a bit harsh.

haha, well their's a chance. My opinion is that it's probably about 20%, or 1 in 5 of those would get completed. I'm not sure it's worth it.
It's not always one extreme or the other. That's probably just your frustration talking. If it was always one extreme or the other, the Vikings two main starting QBs wouldn't have completion percentages above 60% for the season. Cassel wouldn't be averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and Ponder wouldn't have an average of just under 7 yards per attempt. They don't complete enough bombs or get enough yardage on screens and short passes to achieve those numbers. They have a mid-range passing game and it's been pretty effective at times.
I mean no offense but I think you're going overboard in suggesting the playcalling on those first two drives left little room for success. We've already covered the first series above and on the second series, they followed the incompletion on first down with an 8 yard run on second down, setting up a very make-able 3rd and 2 situation. On 3rd down, Cassel threw a short pass to Chase Ford, who was past the first down marker but dropped the pass. In what way did the playcalling on that series leave little room for success?
Sorry, I mean, one extreme or the other when it comes to satisfying a fans opinion. Like if I complain about running too much on first down I should be satisfied they called a low percentage play action bomb. When really, I don't like either call and would prefer something in the intermediate range. As you mention yourself, our QB's have a 60% completion rate on those other passes but my guess is it's NOT 60% on deep bombs.
Speaking of that first series, watching that 3rd and 6 play again, I think a screen pass there would have destroyed that blitz. Sully let's his guy go by anyway and Gerhart fails to block him, he could have slipped by and caught the dump off. Both CB's and both safeties back pedal way out of the screen with the WR's. Cassel would have just had to drop a little further back to buy more time and let gerhart slip out and I think it could have worked hehe. Captain Hindsight though.
The second series, well I think that 8 yard run is a pretty unlikely occurrence, that's pretty much the best outcome you can hope for on 2nd and 10 and running the ball. I think most of the time you can expect that to play out as 3rd and 6+. Other than that, it looks like Ford just drops it. Obviously the main thing I don't like about that series is the wasted first down play. Go ahead and watch that one too if you want and let me know what you honestly think the chance of success is on that one.
I see the difference. I also see no reason why that sequence couldn't have followed an 8 yard run by Peterson and a catch by Ford on the second series... except that Ford dropped the pass. Players have to execute or no call is successful.
Well like I said I think the 8 yard run is over achieving on that play, but yes ford just dropped it. Had they picked up 2 yards on that first down play, the peterson run would have been a first down!
Okay, I have to ask: when is it okay to run the ball? Is it ever okay to run on first down or is that always mindless? Peterson has over 1200 yards rushing and 10 TDs this season. He's rushed for 3300+ yards and 22 TDs over the past 31 games and he was the MVP of the league last year but it's "mindless" to give him the ball?
If I'm extremely blunt, I'd say it's okay to run the ball when the conditions favor running the ball. In order to get those conditions you have to be able to pass effectively or bench Adrian Peterson. Every team we play our opponent goes into the game thinking they HAVE to stop AD first and foremost. That means we have to pass them out of that mentality, though as long as they're in that mentality, running is usually ineffective.
It's okay to run the ball when you haven't made it a pattern of running the ball. So to address your first down question, it's okay to run the ball on first down if you haven't run the ball on first down in a while, however, if the conditions are not favorable, you still probably don't want to run the ball again. (9 in the box) If you've run the ball 3 times in a row on first down, it's not a great idea to run the ball again on first down.
I'd say I'd only run the ball about 2 out of 5 plays, or if we play 70 snaps, 30 carries for the running back seems reasonable to me. In the WCO, short passes often replace direct carries for the RB. Obviously that is just the "default" idea. If your opponent is giving you 7 in the box then run like theirs no tomorrow. If they're the 32nd ranked rush defense and 1st ranked pass defense then run all you want.
That's where we differ. You see "run, run pass" and a low percentage incompletion on first down as calls that sucked the momentum out of the Vikings sails to start the game. I see failure to execute on third down as the culprit. The dropped pass was inarguably a failure on the field, not Musgrave's failure and that 3rd and 6 at the end of the first series should have ended in nothing worse than a punt but again, there was a serious breakdown in execution. You said at the beginning of your post that "this stuff matters" but that applies as much to the execution on the field as it does to the playcalling itself. I don't think there was anything "horrendously bad" in the playcalling on the first two series. The biggest difference was in execution.
I think in those first two series there are 2 examples of bad play calling and 2 examples of poor execution. I think it's bad to start the game with a run, run, pass sequence with the other team gunning for Peterson. I also feel on the 3rd down play the blocking could have been executed better. In the 2nd series, I think that first down play call was terrible, but Ford dropping the 3rd down pass is an execution thing. It's both sides being bad that leads to a 4-10-1 record, not one or the other.