saint33 wrote:I never was trying to suggest that drafting a QB in the first round was a guarantee, or even at #1. The fact of the matter is that in the NFL draft, nothing is a guarantee. Which in a sense, I could see being an argument for not tanking.
I understand. I was trying to build on what you wrote ("... much more often than not, 2nd-7th round QBs do not turn into franchise QBs") by pointing out that the same is true for 1st round QBs. My intent was to provide more information and perspective to the discussion. I didn't disagree with your point about rounds 2-7. The truth is that
most QBs don't turn into franchise QBs. That's true of first round picks, second round picks, and so on.
The point is that while drafting a QB in the first round certainly doesn't guarantee us anything, it would however raise our odds of success. And I think the higher the pick, the higher the odds are historically. I believe if you were to take the statistics of QBs drafted at singular pick in the draft, 1st overall would almost certainly statistically blow any other pick away.
If it was a
singular pick, sure, but I doubt it would blow away the number of successful QBs chosen in the first round or even the second round.
I think selecting a QB with that first pick only raises a team's chances of successfully finding a franchise QB if there's a player truly worth that pick in the first place. That's a rather obvious statement but I think it's an important point when talking about the odds. In the end, those odds are
talent dependent, not draft position dependent. When a draft contains a player the caliber of Peyton Manning or John Elway, having the pick that will land that player is obviously valuable (especially if the player will actually sign with your team!). On the other hand, if you look at least year's draft, having the #1 pick wouldn't have even been desirable to a team that wanted to draft a potential franchise QB. In some seasons, like 2007, combining that first pick with the desperate need for a QB could be positively detrimental and lead to the selection of a player like JaMarcus Russell. there are drafts that simply don't produce franchise QBs.
I understand the resistance to losing. I personally am cheering for the Vikings to win every Sunday, but in the back of my head I know that it is better for them to lose. Let's face it, this team is not going to turn the corner and have a great run for the playoffs. And the fact of the matter is, without a franchise QB the odds of having a sustainable successful team for years to come are very low. If our team is not going to experience present success, and we are lacking the key piece needed for future success, it only makes sense that our best course of action is to put ourselves in the best position to have the greatest odds and finding that missing piece.
As for the debate about QBs in this upcoming draft, I don't understand the talk that Teddy Bridgewater is not talented enough to be the #1 overall pick. I've seen a lot of people say "he is no Andrew Luck", which I would 100% agree with. But Andrew Luck is a once in a generation prospect. If I were to rank Bridgewater coming out of college (obviously pending the rest of his college career), I would rank him higher than Cam Newton, Sam Bradford and about on par with Matthew Stafford. That to me is easily enough justification needed to lose enough games to get him. But that's just my opinion
Maybe he'll be worth it but if I'm not mistaken, Louisville hasn't produced a good NFL QB since Johnny Unitas and they've produced a couple of QB prospects in recent years that fizzled at the next level. That makes me wary. However, please, don't get me wrong, Bridgewater might be a great NFL player. I just don't see him as even close to the kind of player you want to lose games to acquire. I'm not sure that "losing to win" approach is ever advisable but IF it were, it would have to be a for a once in a generation type of prospect, not just a guy who may or may not be the best QB available. Bridgewater's not exactly facing top competition. He's a very good college QB, one of several that will be available.
