We still have a chance

[Mothman]

Now I do agree that at this point there doesn't seem to be a clear-cut #1 guy like Luck or RG3, so it will take some careful evaluation and a bit of luck to get that guy that can set your franchise up for years. And not set it BACK years like Ponder has.

I think that's on Spielman, not Ponder. Plan B should always be in place and Spielman was kidding himself if he thought either Webb or MBT were legitimate Plan Bs. Maybe Freeman is. I don't know. However, I strongly believe a team should always have at least one backup they are grooming as if he could legitimately become their QB of the future. As I see it, Ponder's job has been to do his best to try to play well, solidify the QB position and meet expectations. Spielman's job is to have that "next man up" ready to go. I don't mean a journeyman veteran like Cassel, I mean the next potential starter. As I said, maybe that's Freeman but his presence on the roster isn't exactly the result of planning ahead.

[Mothman]

sure you can get a QB in a later round, that's been proven time and time again. It's also been proven that much more often than not, 2nd-7th round QBs do not turn into franchise QBs.

More often than not, first rounders don't turn into franchise QBs either. Since 1990, I'd say the success rate in selecting QBs in R1 and ending up with a legitimate franchise QB is well below 50% (please see list below).

However, in this discussion of trying to get the #1 pick to get the best QB available, how about we look at the recent history of QBs drafted #1 overall. This is a list of QBs drafted #1 overall in the past 10 years

Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford
Matthew Stafford
JaMarcus Russell
Alex Smith
Eli Manning

outside of russell, and maybe Bradford, I'd be happy

I'd be happy with Stafford, Luck and Newton so far. Russell was obviously a complete bust. Bradford and Smith have been disappointments. I know a lot of people like Smith now but he was a disappointment to the team that invested in him for years and even when he reached the peak of his achievement with them, they felt it was a good idea to move on. Now he's winning in Kansas City (due in no small part to a terrific defense) but deep into his career, it's hard to consider the investment the 49ers made in him worth it.

Regarding my earlier point (and to provide more info to consider and discuss0, here's a list of all of the QBs drafted in the first round since 1990. As I mentioned above, the success rate in finding franchise QBs in R1 is well below 50%. Depending on ho we define "franchise QB", it could be considered as low as 15-20%.

Jeff George
Andre Ware
Dan McGwire
Todd Marinovich
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
Drew Bledsoe
Rick Mirer
Heath Shuler
Trent Dilfer
Steve McNair
Kerry Collins
Jim Druckenmiller
Jake Plummer
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Daunte Culpepper
Cade McNown
Chad Pennington
Michael Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
E.J. Manuel

Sorry about the length of that list. I don't know about anybody else but I find it somewhat sobering.

[majorm]

More often than not, first rounders don't turn into franchise QBs either. Since 1990, I'd say the success rate in selecting QBs in R1 and ending up with a legitimate franchise QB is well below 50% (please see list below).

However, in this discussion of trying to get the #1 pick to get the best QB available, how about we look at the recent history of QBs drafted #1 overall. This is a list of QBs drafted #1 overall in the past 10 years
I'd be happy with Stafford, Luck and Newton so far. Russell was obviously a complete bust. Bradford and Smith have been disappointments. I know a lot of people like Smith now but he was a disappointment to the team that invested in him for years and even when he reached the peak of his achievement with them, they felt it was a good idea to move on. Now he's winning in Kansas City (due in no small part to a terrific defense) but deep into his career, it's hard to consider the investment the 49ers made in him worth it.

Regarding my earlier point (and to provide more info to consider and discuss0, here's a list of all of the QBs drafted in the first round since 1990. As I mentioned above, the success rate in finding franchise QBs in R1 is well below 50%. Depending on ho we define "franchise QB", it could be considered as low as 15-20%.

Jeff George
Andre Ware
Dan McGwire
Todd Marinovich
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
Drew Bledsoe
Rick Mirer
Heath Shuler
Trent Dilfer
Steve McNair
Kerry Collins
Jim Druckenmiller
Jake Plummer
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Daunte Culpepper
Cade McNown
Chad Pennington
Michael Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
E.J. Manuel

Sorry about the length of that list. I don't know about anybody else but I find it somewhat sobering.

Many more failures than successes on that list, no doubt about it. It is scary to think the future of the Vikings once again hinges on making the right call on the most important position on the team, and making the right call is so tough to do.

[Purple bruise]

News Flash. This just in. Although the QB situation is quite frankly a mess, besides that horrific display by Freeman in his starting performance (a whole lot not to blame on him) but he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. This teams O-line, as far as pass protection goes SUCKS. The most pressing need, on this team, is to fix one of the worst defenses that the Vikings have ever had. Witness not being able to "get off" the field on third downs and surrendering leads with minutes/seconds to go.
So in my estimation, a huge upgrade is needed with the defense as much as anything else.

[tmscr]

More often than not, first rounders don't turn into franchise QBs either. Since 1990, I'd say the success rate in selecting QBs in R1 and ending up with a legitimate franchise QB is well below 50% (please see list below).

However, in this discussion of trying to get the #1 pick to get the best QB available, how about we look at the recent history of QBs drafted #1 overall. This is a list of QBs drafted #1 overall in the past 10 years
I'd be happy with Stafford, Luck and Newton so far. Russell was obviously a complete bust. Bradford and Smith have been disappointments. I know a lot of people like Smith now but he was a disappointment to the team that invested in him for years and even when he reached the peak of his achievement with them, they felt it was a good idea to move on. Now he's winning in Kansas City (due in no small part to a terrific defense) but deep into his career, it's hard to consider the investment the 49ers made in him worth it.

Regarding my earlier point (and to provide more info to consider and discuss0, here's a list of all of the QBs drafted in the first round since 1990. As I mentioned above, the success rate in finding franchise QBs in R1 is well below 50%. Depending on ho we define "franchise QB", it could be considered as low as 15-20%.

Jeff George
Andre Ware
Dan McGwire
Todd Marinovich
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
Drew Bledsoe
Rick Mirer
Heath Shuler
Trent Dilfer
Steve McNair
Kerry Collins
Jim Druckenmiller
Jake Plummer
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Daunte Culpepper
Cade McNown
Chad Pennington
Michael Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
E.J. Manuel

Sorry about the length of that list. I don't know about anybody else but I find it somewhat sobering.

and that is precisely why the idea of a win being "bad" and "useless" for a team struggling to find success simply because it hurts your draft standing is silly. Yeah, I'd rather watch the vikings be somewhat entertaining and win 5 or 6 games over being atrocious and losing by 3 TDs every game.

[tmscr]

News Flash. This just in. Although the QB situation is quite frankly a mess, besides that horrific display by Freeman in his starting performance (a whole lot not to blame on him) but he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. This teams O-line, as far as pass protection goes SUCKS. The most pressing need, on this team, is to fix one of the worst defenses that the Vikings have ever had. Witness not being able to "get off" the field on third downs and surrendering leads with minutes/seconds to go.
So in my estimation, a huge upgrade is needed with the defense as much as anything else.

Exactly. And no, it isn't as easy as it seems to build a good defense or a good offensive line through FA and other draft picks. If it were, everyone would do it! How many other needs do we have? Picking in the top 10 gives you the opportunity to draft the best at (fill in the blank) position.

[Mothman]

Many more failures than successes on that list, no doubt about it. It is scary to think the future of the Vikings once again hinges on making the right call on the most important position on the team, and making the right call is so tough to do.

It's very scary and some drafts simply don't any franchise QBs. hopefully, this won;t be one of them and hopefully, if there's a franchise QB to be found in this draft, the Vikes will find him.

[PurpleHalo]

I thought so!

I'm guessing majorm did too and just left that team out. They're almost past the 3 decade mark he mentioned anyway.

Sigh... this #@*%# team isn't going to the Super Bowl this year which means it will now be 37 seasons since the last time they even made it to the big game. Back then, I never though I'd still be waiting so many years later. I really thought they were going to get there in both '87 and '98. I sure hope their day is coming soon. I'd like to see them win the Super Bowl at least once in my lifetime!

I'm happy with just seeing them get there! I was a little young in 76 to remember that trip. I feel like winning a title game is bigger, just feels like a bigger game than the super bowl itself.

[PurpleHalo]

Why are people saying Bradford is so dissapointing? When he went down this year he had 14 TDs and 4 INT. Previous years he had no weapons to throw to.

[Mothman]

Why are people saying Bradford is so dissapointing? When he went down this year he had 14 TDs and 4 INT. Previous years he had no weapons to throw to.

I referred to him as a disappointment because he's missed significant time due to injuries in 2 of his 4 seasons as a pro. I don't think he's a bad player.

[saint33]

More often than not, first rounders don't turn into franchise QBs either. Since 1990, I'd say the success rate in selecting QBs in R1 and ending up with a legitimate franchise QB is well below 50% (please see list below).

However, in this discussion of trying to get the #1 pick to get the best QB available, how about we look at the recent history of QBs drafted #1 overall. This is a list of QBs drafted #1 overall in the past 10 years
I'd be happy with Stafford, Luck and Newton so far. Russell was obviously a complete bust. Bradford and Smith have been disappointments. I know a lot of people like Smith now but he was a disappointment to the team that invested in him for years and even when he reached the peak of his achievement with them, they felt it was a good idea to move on. Now he's winning in Kansas City (due in no small part to a terrific defense) but deep into his career, it's hard to consider the investment the 49ers made in him worth it.

Regarding my earlier point (and to provide more info to consider and discuss0, here's a list of all of the QBs drafted in the first round since 1990. As I mentioned above, the success rate in finding franchise QBs in R1 is well below 50%. Depending on ho we define "franchise QB", it could be considered as low as 15-20%.

Jeff George
Andre Ware
Dan McGwire
Todd Marinovich
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
Drew Bledsoe
Rick Mirer
Heath Shuler
Trent Dilfer
Steve McNair
Kerry Collins
Jim Druckenmiller
Jake Plummer
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Daunte Culpepper
Cade McNown
Chad Pennington
Michael Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
E.J. Manuel

Sorry about the length of that list. I don't know about anybody else but I find it somewhat sobering.

I never was trying to suggest that drafting a QB in the first round was a guarantee, or even at #1. The fact of the matter is that in the NFL draft, nothing is a guarantee. Which in a sense, I could see being an argument for not tanking.

But if you were to look at the success rate of the QBs in the 2nd round, I'd bet it would be even worse than round 1, and the 3rd round would likely continue that downward slope. In fact, I'd venture to say that the combined success rate between rounds 2-7 over the course of the same period would be worse than the success rate of QBs drafted in round 1. The point is that while drafting a QB in the first round certainly doesn't guarantee us anything, it would however raise our odds of success. And I think the higher the pick, the higher the odds are historically. I believe if you were to take the statistics of QBs drafted at singular pick in the draft, 1st overall would almost certainly statistically blow any other pick away.

I understand the resistance to losing. I personally am cheering for the Vikings to win every Sunday, but in the back of my head I know that it is better for them to lose. Let's face it, this team is not going to turn the corner and have a great run for the playoffs. And the fact of the matter is, without a franchise QB the odds of having a sustainable successful team for years to come are very low. If our team is not going to experience present success, and we are lacking the key piece needed for future success, it only makes sense that our best course of action is to put ourselves in the best position to have the greatest odds and finding that missing piece.

As for the debate about QBs in this upcoming draft, I don't understand the talk that Teddy Bridgewater is not talented enough to be the #1 overall pick. I've seen a lot of people say "he is no Andrew Luck", which I would 100% agree with. But Andrew Luck is a once in a generation prospect. If I were to rank Bridgewater coming out of college (obviously pending the rest of his college career), I would rank him higher than Cam Newton, Sam Bradford and about on par with Matthew Stafford. That to me is easily enough justification needed to lose enough games to get him. But that's just my opinion

[Mothman]

I never was trying to suggest that drafting a QB in the first round was a guarantee, or even at #1. The fact of the matter is that in the NFL draft, nothing is a guarantee. Which in a sense, I could see being an argument for not tanking.

I understand. I was trying to build on what you wrote ("... much more often than not, 2nd-7th round QBs do not turn into franchise QBs") by pointing out that the same is true for 1st round QBs. My intent was to provide more information and perspective to the discussion. I didn't disagree with your point about rounds 2-7. The truth is that most QBs don't turn into franchise QBs. That's true of first round picks, second round picks, and so on.

The point is that while drafting a QB in the first round certainly doesn't guarantee us anything, it would however raise our odds of success. And I think the higher the pick, the higher the odds are historically. I believe if you were to take the statistics of QBs drafted at singular pick in the draft, 1st overall would almost certainly statistically blow any other pick away.

If it was a singular pick, sure, but I doubt it would blow away the number of successful QBs chosen in the first round or even the second round.

I think selecting a QB with that first pick only raises a team's chances of successfully finding a franchise QB if there's a player truly worth that pick in the first place. That's a rather obvious statement but I think it's an important point when talking about the odds. In the end, those odds are talent dependent, not draft position dependent. When a draft contains a player the caliber of Peyton Manning or John Elway, having the pick that will land that player is obviously valuable (especially if the player will actually sign with your team!). On the other hand, if you look at least year's draft, having the #1 pick wouldn't have even been desirable to a team that wanted to draft a potential franchise QB. In some seasons, like 2007, combining that first pick with the desperate need for a QB could be positively detrimental and lead to the selection of a player like JaMarcus Russell. there are drafts that simply don't produce franchise QBs.

I understand the resistance to losing. I personally am cheering for the Vikings to win every Sunday, but in the back of my head I know that it is better for them to lose. Let's face it, this team is not going to turn the corner and have a great run for the playoffs. And the fact of the matter is, without a franchise QB the odds of having a sustainable successful team for years to come are very low. If our team is not going to experience present success, and we are lacking the key piece needed for future success, it only makes sense that our best course of action is to put ourselves in the best position to have the greatest odds and finding that missing piece.

As for the debate about QBs in this upcoming draft, I don't understand the talk that Teddy Bridgewater is not talented enough to be the #1 overall pick. I've seen a lot of people say "he is no Andrew Luck", which I would 100% agree with. But Andrew Luck is a once in a generation prospect. If I were to rank Bridgewater coming out of college (obviously pending the rest of his college career), I would rank him higher than Cam Newton, Sam Bradford and about on par with Matthew Stafford. That to me is easily enough justification needed to lose enough games to get him. But that's just my opinion

Maybe he'll be worth it but if I'm not mistaken, Louisville hasn't produced a good NFL QB since Johnny Unitas and they've produced a couple of QB prospects in recent years that fizzled at the next level. That makes me wary. However, please, don't get me wrong, Bridgewater might be a great NFL player. I just don't see him as even close to the kind of player you want to lose games to acquire. I'm not sure that "losing to win" approach is ever advisable but IF it were, it would have to be a for a once in a generation type of prospect, not just a guy who may or may not be the best QB available. Bridgewater's not exactly facing top competition. He's a very good college QB, one of several that will be available.

[Laserman]

I never was trying to suggest that drafting a QB in the first round was a guarantee, or even at #1. The fact of the matter is that in the NFL draft, nothing is a guarantee. Which in a sense, I could see being an argument for not tanking.

But if you were to look at the success rate of the QBs in the 2nd round, I'd bet it would be even worse than round 1, and the 3rd round would likely continue that downward slope. In fact, I'd venture to say that the combined success rate between rounds 2-7 over the course of the same period would be worse than the success rate of QBs drafted in round 1. The point is that while drafting a QB in the first round certainly doesn't guarantee us anything, it would however raise our odds of success. And I think the higher the pick, the higher the odds are historically. I believe if you were to take the statistics of QBs drafted at singular pick in the draft, 1st overall would almost certainly statistically blow any other pick away.

I understand the resistance to losing. I personally am cheering for the Vikings to win every Sunday, but in the back of my head I know that it is better for them to lose. Let's face it, this team is not going to turn the corner and have a great run for the playoffs. And the fact of the matter is, without a franchise QB the odds of having a sustainable successful team for years to come are very low. If our team is not going to experience present success, and we are lacking the key piece needed for future success, it only makes sense that our best course of action is to put ourselves in the best position to have the greatest odds and finding that missing piece.

As for the debate about QBs in this upcoming draft, I don't understand the talk that Teddy Bridgewater is not talented enough to be the #1 overall pick. I've seen a lot of people say "he is no Andrew Luck", which I would 100% agree with. But Andrew Luck is a once in a generation prospect. If I were to rank Bridgewater coming out of college (obviously pending the rest of his college career), I would rank him higher than Cam Newton, Sam Bradford and about on par with Matthew Stafford. That to me is easily enough justification needed to lose enough games to get him. But that's just my opinion

10 guys on this list are worth having and two of those are wait and see

[majorm]

aaron rodgers had a plethora of very talented receivers to help along the way. the vikings don't have that just yet. you can say slightly better QB would have won any of our close games this year, but you could say slightly better defensive play, much better offensive line play and even slightly better coaching could have won those games. a great QB (assuming there is one in the draft) surrounded by below average players (you don't get to 2-7 by being anything other than below average) means nothing. now, I would agree with you if andrew luck is in the draft, but he just flat out isn't.

You are NOT seriously saying that the Vikings would be the same team with Aaron Rodgers at QB this year as they have been with Ponder!

I can't disagree with points you've made about highly drafted QBs that have gone bust. Or that there have been great QBs taken in later rounds. No doubt about that.

But in the NFL, the best teams have the best QBs. Period! End of story. Trying to argue that having a truly elite QB - with no other roster changes - wouldn't make the Vikings a better team is crazy.

A QB like Rodgers or Brees would probably not be enough to make this current Viking squad a Super Bowl team but it would be a heck of a good start. I've said it many times; a true franchise QB makes a lot of other holes on your team seem much smaller.

[im4mnvikes]

You are NOT seriously saying that the Vikings would be the same team with Aaron Rodgers at QB this year as they have been with Ponder!

I can't disagree with points you've made about highly drafted QBs that have gone bust. Or that there have been great QBs taken in later rounds. No doubt about that.

But in the NFL, the best teams have the best QBs. Period! End of story. Trying to argue that having a truly elite QB - with no other roster changes - wouldn't make the Vikings a better team is crazy.

A QB like Rodgers or Brees would probably not be enough to make this current Viking squad a Super Bowl team but it would be a heck of a good start. I've said it many times; a true franchise QB makes a lot of other holes on your team seem much smaller.

With our current coaches a QB like Rodgers or Brees would make us a 6-7 win team at best. Part of the success of a Rodgers or Brees is the game plans and playcalling. Both of those suck for the Vikings right now IMO