Pondering Ponder vs. Ponder

[dead_poet]

I don't know about that. I don't want to hijack this thread, but I feel there will be some good QB's available for the right price this off season...just a prediction, but Romo (Dallas is sick of him, not sure I'd want him either), Matt Flynn (upgrade over Ponder, but don't know if he's actually that much better), Vick (if Reid is fired, Vick is gone as well), and possibly Phillip Rivers (there's no news whatsoever, but Chargers may want to start rebuilding from the bottom up). Anywho, proceed...

Given those options (with the exception of Flynn, who I have yet to see is any better than Ponder) and the direction the Vikings are going, there's about a 0.00005% chance they'd sign any of those guys to be the starter.

[smoothoperator]

romo or rivers would be a terrible move, neither of them will ever lead a team to a championship.

[Demi]

And the "rainbows" I've seen have been perfectly placed. I don't care how they get there as long as they get there.

Guess we're seeing different rainbows. He's had a few accurate ones like the TD to Harvin. But just as often as not they're going too far out of bounds to even be catchable. And it seems like another example of playing to not make a mistake, rather than make a play. As far as his arm strength, Wright had his guy beat bad, and should have had a throw hit him in stride, instead he's got to turn around slow down, and catch it in his bread basket. And that was with a wind up and a heave. Most QBs in this league can throw that deep post on something close to a rope and hit a receiver in stride, even 3rd round rookies like Wilson make that throw. I hear the "myth" of Ponders arm strength, but three wide open receivers had to slow up for his throws. It isn't a myth. He can put some zip on the ball. But he doesn't have the arm strength of even an average QB in this league to get enough on the ball deep or intermediate on a regular basis. And we see it all the time. One slightly under thrown ball to Wright hardly disproves anything...

It's likely he'll be the starter going into next season, he'll be just average enough to earn some more rope. But they better have some backup plan in case he does struggle and is as wildly inconsistent as he's been this year. I doubt it'll matter after next year anyway. He'll be done, Spielman will be fired, Frazier won't be extended. And we can start the rebuild from the top down this team desperately needs.

Skol Vikings!

[dead_poet]

He's had a few accurate ones like the TD to Harvin. But just as often as not they're going too far out of bounds to even be catchable.

I know you're at least talking specifically of a ball or two to Simpson. That was an accurate pass. Simpson HAS to give Ponder more room to drop that ball to his outside shoulder. The one I'm remembering (and I'm guessing you are too) he's running inside of a yard before the sidelines. That's not acceptable and I know the commentators and beat guys pointed that out specifically. Have they all been perfect? No. But I've been seeing a lot more decent deep passes (when given the opportunity) this season than last.

As far as his arm strength, Wright had his guy beat bad, and should have had a throw hit him in stride, instead he's got to turn around slow down, and catch it in his bread basket.

Your margin for error is pretty small. He did complete that pass.

He can put some zip on the ball. But he doesn't have the arm strength of even an average QB in this league to get enough on the ball deep or intermediate on a regular basis.

So he puts some zip on the ball while not even having "average" arm strength? An interesting analysis. Also curious, because most everything I read says that Ponder has more than adequate arm for the NFL. And that his lack of perceived arm strength coming out of college has been exaggerated. But what do these guys know?

[Demi]

So he puts some zip on the ball while not even having "average" arm strength? An interesting analysis.

I think part of his accuracy issues are because of his lack of arm strength. On short passes when he tries to get the ball there with any real velocity it's usually not terribly accurate. And the "zip" I'm talking about is those short throws he tries to rifle in. The arm strength is on the deep balls where receivers are wide open and even stepping into it there's a heck of a lot more arc than on the ball coming from someone with "more than adequate arm strength". It's not just the Wright pass, but three or four passes earlier this year and last where a receiver has a lot of room and has to stop if not come back to the ball because he can't put the ball where it needs to be because of the lack of arm strength.

We've all watched every snap the guys had in the NFL. I can't be the only one that sees it...

[dead_poet]

[It's not just the Wright pass, but three or four passes earlier this year and last where a receiver has a lot of room and has to stop if not come back to the ball because he can't put the ball where it needs to be because of the lack of arm strength.

I'm not sure which passes you mean specifically, but all of those had to have been shorter (I don't recall an attempt longer than the pass to Wright). He may have just underthrown them, which is not indicative of a lack of arm strength.

We've all watched every snap the guys had in the NFL. I can't be the only one that sees it...

You can tell the difference between a Ponder pass and, say, a MBT pass. That's fair. But I don't see anything in Ponder's arm that tells me he lacks the physical tools to be successful. Once again, I'm much more concerned with his pocket awareness, vision, accuracy and decision making.

[John_Viveiros]

I think part of his accuracy issues are because of his lack of arm strength. On short passes when he tries to get the ball there with any real velocity it's usually not terribly accurate. And the "zip" I'm talking about is those short throws he tries to rifle in. The arm strength is on the deep balls where receivers are wide open and even stepping into it there's a heck of a lot more arc than on the ball coming from someone with "more than adequate arm strength". It's not just the Wright pass, but three or four passes earlier this year and last where a receiver has a lot of room and has to stop if not come back to the ball because he can't put the ball where it needs to be because of the lack of arm strength.

We've all watched every snap the guys had in the NFL. I can't be the only one that sees it...

What is the world coming to, when I find myself agreeing with Demi?

It may be a strong enough arm if he had Joe Montana-like accuracy and ability to scan the field. Haven't seen those abilities yet. And to paraphrase Demi: "I can't be the only one not seeing it".

[VikingLord]

I think part of his accuracy issues are because of his lack of arm strength. On short passes when he tries to get the ball there with any real velocity it's usually not terribly accurate. And the "zip" I'm talking about is those short throws he tries to rifle in. The arm strength is on the deep balls where receivers are wide open and even stepping into it there's a heck of a lot more arc than on the ball coming from someone with "more than adequate arm strength". It's not just the Wright pass, but three or four passes earlier this year and last where a receiver has a lot of room and has to stop if not come back to the ball because he can't put the ball where it needs to be because of the lack of arm strength.

We've all watched every snap the guys had in the NFL. I can't be the only one that sees it...

I think his accuracy issues are a product of bad footwork more than lack of arm strength. He's equally inept (at least recently) hitting short passes that don't require a strong arm as much as a smooth motion. The tendency for his short passes to sail high as well as the arc on his deeper passes is most likely caused by the fact that he's throwing with his body weight on his back foot. This is consistent with his tendency to move to the side and backwards when scrambling.

On the deeper passes, so much of it is timing. The QB has to recognize the WR has beaten the coverage often before he's actually behind it. If he waits even a split second too long, then often the WR will have to wait on the pass. This is true of any QB, even the ones with the stronger arms. It's more a product of recognition and waiting for the route to develop, then being able to step into the throw and deliver on that rope.

I continue to think about Brad Johnson when I look at Ponder. Johnson was the same kind of player. Not particularly gifted as a passer or blessed with a strong arm, but he more than compensated for that with his excellent recognition of what was happening both pre and post-snap. Johnson's emotional control and fundamentals were also excellent.

I'm beginning to think that the best predictor of whether a guy can make it at QB in the NFL would be like those tests they ran on early candidates for astronauts. They subjected them to fairly intense tests under great pressure. The guys who could handle it were brought into the program, while the guys who could not never saw space. It doesn't matter what they looked like, what their test scores were, or how fast they ran a 40 yard dash - all that mattered was whether they kept their cool under intense pressure. That's the key for success at QB in the NFL. All the smarts, physical gifts, and coaching won't mean a hill of beans if a guy can't function with a 300 pound defensive end bearing down on him from his left while a blitzing CB comes at him from the right and all he has to do is take a single step up in the pocket to let his crossing slot receiver come open for a big gainer. Success in that situation requires calm, decisive action and the ability to block out the threat of the pressure while maintaining the balance and coordination necessary to deliver the ball.

A guy doesn't have to possess a rocket arm to be successful in the NFL. He does need to possess some mental toughness and emotional control, and that's where I see Ponder really struggling right now.

[Mothman]

It may be a strong enough arm if he had Joe Montana-like accuracy and ability to scan the field. Haven't seen those abilities yet. And to paraphrase Demi: "I can't be the only one not seeing it".

I'm pretty sure everybody sees that he doesn't have Montana-like accuracy or field vision at this point.

[Mothman]

I think his accuracy issues are a product of bad footwork more than lack of arm strength.

I was going to say the same thing. When he underthrows a receiver it's usually because he's not stepping into and following through on the throw.

I'm beginning to think that the best predictor of whether a guy can make it at QB in the NFL would be like those tests they ran on early candidates for astronauts. They subjected them to fairly intense tests under great pressure. The guys who could handle it were brought into the program, while the guys who could not never saw space. It doesn't matter what they looked like, what their test scores were, or how fast they ran a 40 yard dash - all that mattered was whether they kept their cool under intense pressure. That's the key for success at QB in the NFL. All the smarts, physical gifts, and coaching won't mean a hill of beans if a guy can't function with a 300 pound defensive end bearing down on him from his left while a blitzing CB comes at him from the right and all he has to do is take a single step up in the pocket to let his crossing slot receiver come open for a big gainer. Success in that situation requires calm, decisive action and the ability to block out the threat of the pressure while maintaining the balance and coordination necessary to deliver the ball.

A guy doesn't have to possess a rocket arm to be successful in the NFL. He does need to possess some mental toughness and emotional control, and that's where I see Ponder really struggling right now.

I wish you had seen Sunday's game. He was much better in those pressure situations than in previous weeks. That said, you're absolutely right that it's the ability to function in those difficult situations that ultimately makes or breaks an NFL QB.

[dkoby]

Might be interesting to see some stats on how much time Ponder has had to make throws this year in comparison to other QB's.
Not sure if such stats are kept or where they might be located. Might explain why his yards per attempt is lower than most. Might also explain why the receivers might not have time to get into the windows in zone coverage.
My guess is that on average, he has at least a half second less than most QB's

[Eli]

Might be interesting to see some stats on how much time Ponder has had to make throws this year in comparison to other QB's.
Not sure if such stats are kept or where they might be located. Might explain why his yards per attempt is lower than most.

Weren't we all just told that the Vikings have the 8th best pass blocking in the NFL? That doesn't translate into less time for the QB than average.

[Crax]

Might be interesting to see some stats on how much time Ponder has had to make throws this year in comparison to other QB's.
Not sure if such stats are kept or where they might be located. Might explain why his yards per attempt is lower than most. Might also explain why the receivers might not have time to get into the windows in zone coverage.
My guess is that on average, he has at least a half second less than most QB's

PFF did a whole thing on this recently: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... -to-throw/
He is nowhere near the bottom. Ponder is 10th in the league for the average amount of time he has to throw and 17th in the league for the amount of time it takes him to get sacked. So he's right in the middle for how quick he's sacked and up towards the top for the average time he has to throw.

Tom Brady actually averages the least time to throw.

[Mothman]

They are kept, and he is nowhere near the bottom. Ponder is 10th in the league for the average amount of time he has to throw and 17th in the league for the amount of time it takes him to get sacked. So he's right in the middle for how quick he's sacked and up towards the top for the average time he has to throw.

Tom Brady actually averages the least time to throw.

So is the stat how long the QB has to throw or how long he takes to throw? The Brady stats sounds like the latter.

[Crax]

So is the stat how long the QB has to throw or how long he takes to throw? The Brady stats sounds like the latter.

It's a combination of both I believe, I just posted the link. I thought it was a members only article, but I think everyone can see it.

Now to explain what ‘time to throw’ is, we record the time from when the ball is snapped to the point where the quarterback has either thrown a pass or can no longer throw a pass (has been sacked or has scrambled past the line of scrimmage)