Oddsmakers put over/under at 6 wins

[Mothman]

I'm still baffled by the level of confidence expressed in Cassel and the certainty that there's "no question" the Vikings will win 6+ games with him as their starter. Cassel has just eight wins as a starter over the past three years (compared to 15 losses). He's thrown more INTs in that span than TDs and he struggles to stay healthy. Last year, he was very uneven, delivering both the best QB performances the Vikings had and some of the worst. He certainly has the potential to play well and help the Vikes to an improved win total but to me, his history just doesn't inspire confidence.

[Mothman]

Your stats means nothing...

They reflect his performance over the past 3 years. That's not "nothing". Quite the opposite... looks at his W/L record, his completion percentages, TD/INT ratios, etc. over that time span and they're simply not impressive.

... and also ignores the circumstances surrounding those games when he was yanked in and out, which is hardly the environment to thrive in. His waning days in KC also mean little for similar reasons and also the fact that you ignore the great year he had in KC and the great year he had in NE. He has precedence for success and is not a flash in the pan.

Please stop telling me what I'm supposedly ignoring. I've acknoweldged his history dozens of times here, including the one good year he had in NE and the one good year he had in KC. Just because I don't qualify every statement I make about him by pointing those things out doesn't mean I'm ignoring them. Let's just consider them acknowledged from this moment forward.

On the other hand, I don't think we can just focus on those two seasons and dismiss the rest. We're talking about a player who has been in the league for about a decade and only has two truly good seasons to show for it.

I don't think Smith and Cassel are the same type or the same person or anything but this is just the most recent example of how environment can make a difference to a QB with ability. It is perfectly within Cassel to play at a higher level and the position he is in now in 2014, is much better than in 2013.

Nobody is denying that potential. I'm just saying I see no reason for the level of confidence being expressed in a player who has had more bad seasons than good and is 3 seasons removed from the last year he had that could truly be qualified as good. As you pointed out, "there is still some doubt as to whether he can keep things going when the spotlight is on" and that's why I have a hard time understanding the high level of confidence so many Vikings fans continue to express in him.

[losperros]

I'm still baffled by the level of confidence expressed in Cassel and the certainty that there's "no question" the Vikings will win 6+ games with him as their starter. Cassel has just eight wins as a starter over the past three years (compared to 15 losses). He's thrown more INTs in that span than TDs and he struggles to stay healthy. Last year, he was very uneven, delivering both the best QB performances the Vikings had and some of the worst. He certainly has the potential to play well and help the Vikes to an improved win total but to me, his history just doesn't inspire confidence.

Jim, your points are well taken and certainly valid, at least in my view. But as I said in another thread, Cassel was a backup QB last year and he's basically filling in until Bridgewater hopefully develops this year. I don't expect Cassel to be Tom Brady. I think "consistency" (as you pointed out in the other thread) is the real issue. However, I think consistency is an issue for the entire team, which is why I don't put some of Cassel's uneven playing last season solely on him.

[Mothman]

Jim, your points are well taken and certainly valid, at least in my view. But as I said in another thread, Cassel was a backup QB last year and he's basically filling in until Bridgewater hopefully develops this year. I don't expect Cassel to be Tom Brady. I think "consistency" (as you pointed out in the other thread) is the real issue. However, I think consistency is an issue for the entire team, which is why I don't put some of Cassel's uneven playing last season solely on him.

I don't either, Craig and as I mentioned out in one of these threads (I think it was the other one) nothing in football happens in a bubble. Cassel is far from the only Viking who needs to play well more consistently. If those around him play good football more consistently, it should help him do likewise.

[mondry]

Hopefully being #1 on the depth chart from the beginning and taking "most of the reps" from the get go can help him be more "consistent" as well.

[Mothman]

Hopefully being #1 on the depth chart from the beginning and taking "most of the reps" from the get go can help him be more "consistent" as well.

I hope so but why did you put the word consistent in quotes?

[losperros]

Hopefully being #1 on the depth chart from the beginning and taking "most of the reps" from the get go can help him be more "consistent" as well.

In Cassel's case, isn't he #1 just for now? Again, I see Cassel as a backup QB who is being asked to get the team rolling while a rookie develops. So I guess I don't see him as the #1 QB for the Vikings, at least not for long. Just my take on it.

[mondry]

I hope so but why did you put the word consistent in quotes?

Because it doesn't mean one way or the other on it's own, you can be consistently bad for example. Granted quotes probably doesn't tell you I meant consistently good either but meh, I didn't put much thought into that post. Hope that helps!

In Cassel's case, isn't he #1 just for now? Again, I see Cassel as a backup QB who is being asked to get the team rolling while a rookie develops. So I guess I don't see him as the #1 QB for the Vikings, at least not for long. Just my take on it.

I dunno, I think for any NFL player that's truly competitive he feels he's the #1 right now. In the NFL, whoever's dedicated #1, regardless of anything else, they get literally like 99% of the reps with the first team and I think that's a big deal. Ponder was eating those up last year.

Sure there is some hot shot rookie prospect behind you going to push you but if Cassel played like he did in his one good year at NE or the one good year at KC, the job is his I think unless Teddy just without a shadow of the doubt looks not only ready but BETTER.

These situations seem incredibly rare though, I can only think of one when Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith despite Smith playing pretty well. And let me reiterate that this would assume Cassel had a strong year, otherwise of course it doesn't matter and Teddy's the guy.

For example, if we go 12-4 and Cassel makes the probowl, I personally do not believe we would say "well thanks for the season but we're going with Teddy now". Obviously I could be wrong, but that's what I think. Let me also state I think that scenario would be almost impossible but that's what we're talking about here. If Cassel's just his same average or below average self, then it's not much of a discussion and I'd agree with you that he's the stop gap. But personally I feel like Cassel doesn't think of himself that way, whether it matters what he thinks or not is another thing altogether.

[Mothman]

Because it doesn't mean one way or the other on it's own, you can be consistently bad for example. Granted quotes probably doesn't tell you I meant consistently good either but meh, I didn't put much thought into that post. Hope that helps!

Yes, I understand now.

[DK Sweets]

Cassel has an opportunity to create a market for himself the way Jon Kitna did when Carson Palmer was drafted. He can either decide he likes it here, or he can go bolt at the end of his contract to go be the starter for a QB desperate team. He has a lot of motivation to be good, and he's shown the ability to keep the ship on course. I think that's why most of us have measured confidence in him.

[Webbfann]

Your stats means nothing and also ignores the circumstances surrounding those games when he was yanked in and out, which is hardly the environment to thrive in. His waning days in KC also mean little for similar reasons and also the fact that you ignore the great year he had in KC and the great year he had in NE. He has precedence for success and is not a flash in the pan. Your way of thinking would've had Alex Smith be forced into retirement 3 years ago, when surrounded by the proper environment of support and stability he lead the Niners to within a fumble of the Super Bowl, and had his team all the way to it before getting KO'd. And even after that he lead the Chiefs back to the playoffs for the first time in many years when he was given the ball.

Good post.

[Raptorman]

I'm still baffled by the level of confidence expressed in Cassel and the certainty that there's "no question" the Vikings will win 6+ games with him as their starter. Cassel has just eight wins as a starter over the past three years (compared to 15 losses). He's thrown more INTs in that span than TDs and he struggles to stay healthy. Last year, he was very uneven, delivering both the best QB performances the Vikings had and some of the worst. He certainly has the potential to play well and help the Vikes to an improved win total but to me, his history just doesn't inspire confidence.

I think one of the things you have to remember is that some QB's do better with different coaches. Will Cassel? I don't know, but I hope so. Comparing him this year to what he did the last three years really means nothing. New coach, new OC, new system. Now if he end up the same Cassel then we know it was him. But I am always optimistic when it comes to a player that has a new coach or scheme to do better then in the past. After all, how many time have we seen it when a player moves to a different scheme and then all of a sudden he seem to be "good"? It is interesting to me that Cassel's one good year in KC was with Charlie Weis, who was the Patriots OC until 2004. So, does Turner become Cassel's new Weis? We shall see.

[Mothman]

I think one of the things you have to remember is that some QB's do better with different coaches. Will Cassel? I don't know, but I hope so. Comparing him this year to what he did the last three years really means nothing. New coach, new OC, new system. Now if he end up the same Cassel then we know it was him. But I am always optimistic when it comes to a player that has a new coach or scheme to do better then in the past. After all, how many time have we seen it when a player moves to a different scheme and then all of a sudden he seem to be "good"? It is interesting to me that Cassel's one good year in KC was with Charlie Weis, who was the Patriots OC until 2004. So, does Turner become Cassel's new Weis? We shall see.

Indeed, we will but please keep in mind that I'm just having a hard time grasping the high level of confidence people have been expressing in Cassel, not the possibility that he could have a good year.

[Raptorman]

Indeed, we will but please keep in mind that I'm just having a hard time grasping the high level of confidence people have been expressing in Cassel, not the possibility that he could have a good year.

For me it's not confidence, it is optimism.

[Webbfann]

I'm confident. I'm confident Cassel will be a significant improvement, because he already proved he is a significant improvement.
I want exciting offensive football where we have a chance to win games we're losing, so even if he stinks half the time he is an improvement if he producing exciting football and some late rallies the other half. And that's exactly what he did last year. Due to the new coaching staff there is reason for optimism that he might do even better. I'm excited and anxious to find out.