Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

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dead_poet
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by dead_poet »

Mothman wrote:Other than something obvious, like an MVP-caliber season, what would constitute proof? I don't know.
For me, it's fewer (none?) of the sub-100-yard passing days. I try to not be one of those guys that demands 300-yard games out of a QB 10/16 games/season and realize that poor line/receiver play is a factor, but completing between 8-11 passes on the day makes it really difficult and is nearly inexcusable for a third(ish)-year QB under the same system. I'm looking for steady statistical growth, increased consistency with better decision-making. Not perfection.

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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by VikingLord »

It's not subjective whether Ponder succeeds or not, at least not how I look at it.

The coaches will give him plays to run and review the tape. And then they will assess things like:

- Did he make the right read?
- Did he execute the play as designed?
- When he didn't, did his improvisation help or hurt? Was he able to make something out of a broken play?
- Is he consistent?
- When he adjusts plays pre-snap, are the adjustments correct? Are they warranted?
- What do they see from him in practices? Is he leading, or just going through the motions?

So while the average fan watching on Sundays might not be able to arrive at a solid conclusion about Ponder's progress, my guess is the coaches will not have that problem, or at least not nearly to the same extent we do, and I think it will be pretty clear to them whether Ponder is progressing satisfactorily by the end of next season.

One thing I will say - the team stuck behind Ponder last year and that must not have been easy to do. He had some games that were real stinkers and I could easily see other players wanting to blame him for the struggles. That they didn't do that is a real credit to everyone on the team, and for Ponder it shows everyone has his back. It doesn't get better than that in the pros, so hopefully Ponder can just relax, not worry about anything but executing the plays, and make it happen. I personally think he will be able to do it based on how he finished the season.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by Mothman »

VikingLord wrote:It's not subjective whether Ponder succeeds or not, at least not how I look at it.

The coaches will give him plays to run and review the tape. And then they will assess things like:

- Did he make the right read?
- Did he execute the play as designed?
- When he didn't, did his improvisation help or hurt? Was he able to make something out of a broken play?
- Is he consistent?
- When he adjusts plays pre-snap, are the adjustments correct? Are they warranted?
- What do they see from him in practices? Is he leading, or just going through the motions?

So while the average fan watching on Sundays might not be able to arrive at a solid conclusion about Ponder's progress, my guess is the coaches will not have that problem, or at least not nearly to the same extent we do, and I think it will be pretty clear to them whether Ponder is progressing satisfactorily by the end of next season.
Agreed. I was speaking more to the fan and media take on things. The coaches should be able to tell quite clearly how he's doing.
One thing I will say - the team stuck behind Ponder last year and that must not have been easy to do. He had some games that were real stinkers and I could easily see other players wanting to blame him for the struggles. That they didn't do that is a real credit to everyone on the team, and for Ponder it shows everyone has his back.
It may also indicate that he was doing more of the things you listed above than it appeared at times.
It doesn't get better than that in the pros, so hopefully Ponder can just relax, not worry about anything but executing the plays, and make it happen. I personally think he will be able to do it based on how he finished the season.
I do too. I'm sure the growing pains aren't over but he seemed to turn a corner.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by The Breeze »

I think Ponder will be a whole lot more consistent this year just due to the fact that he has gone through a full season now. He had a rough stretch last year that was synched up with some really bad OL play but both units turned a corner and kicked some butt through the final qtr of the season.

I think it worked in our favor that he got hurt and missed the GB game. Firstly because it was the decisive end of J Webb being the backup QB. Makes absolutely no sense to have a backup QB who needs a completely different scheme in order to compete. And secondly it, no doubt, has left Ponder with a serious feeling of unfinished business.

He's got legit receiving options in KR, Jennings and Wright. The OL should be really solid and on it's way to being a top tier unit...barring injury, and a pretty decent running game to hang his hat on.

I have no doubts that if he doesn't please Spielman and Co, regardless of the team's record, that they will have no problem drafting another guy. I was entirely wrong about Spielman as far as his ability to do this job. I don't think he's here to hold anyone's hand, including Ponder. They are giving him a fair shot and I'm betting he succeeds.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by PsyDanny »

petev_sj wrote:Can I throw in a Ponder stat of my own?

In the most important game of the season, the playoff game. The Viking LOST without Christian Ponder. AD was there, Jared Allen was there, Antoine Winfield was there, you name it. Yes, I understand the coaches didn't let Joe Webb play his style. If this thread is about Ponder's stats, you can't leave out this important one.

Good point.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by MV711 »

Comparing Ponder's stats and win /losses in 2012 really doesn't mean much at this stage of the game IMO.

The only thing that matters is that he improves in all areas of play as a QB and that he leads the Vikes to the promised land. Nothing else matters to an old, die-hard Vike fan like myself!!!
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by mansquatch »

Boon wrote:
But he moved the chains with his arm and legs, made clutch throws on third downs and didn't turn the ball over.

If his receivers stay healthy , and even with the terminator there, anything short of 150 yards should raise an eyebrow and deservedly bring some heat on him if he does it more than once. It's not acceptable
Boon, I like your take, I truncated to focus on what I want to respond to. IMO the first sentence is really the key. I don't care if he is sub 200 yards if all his plays are the ones that matter. That being said, if he is making those plays his yardage will be over 200.

I think the 2nd sentence I quoted is a sound point on the stat line, however, my one area of dissagreement is that I think some of his sub 100 yard outtings were due not just to him, but also other players who are part ofthe passing game. It certainly takes bad QB play to get under 100 yards, but it also takes bad WR play. To your point though, the latter issue has been addressed.

I think your 150 yard bench mark is sound. As I've said many times, I do not feel like we'll see 300 yard games out of Ponder only because the offense isn't seeking that quantity of passing attempts. Put another way, if Ponder breaks 300 yards it iwll be because he connects on some monster plays due to the defense selling out to stop AP, not because he had 30+ completions in a game.

I come back to your first sentence again because it really is critical. Good QB play means giving us net positive plays. During Ponders's slump last year the problem wasn't just the really bad negative plays, it was the complete absence of anything positive. The latter cannot happen this year if we are to improve.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by mosscarter »

boon you hit the nail on the head. a superbowl caliber qb doesn't have 5 games with stats like that. what blows my mind is we went 10-6 and he basically (as far as i see it) single handedly lost us 5 games by horrible performances. the regular season game in green bay was the sickest game i've ever watched. all he needed to do was be barely above average and we win that one.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by Texas Vike »

mosscarter wrote:boon you hit the nail on the head. a superbowl caliber qb doesn't have 5 games with stats like that. what blows my mind is we went 10-6 and he basically (as far as i see it) single handedly lost us 5 games by horrible performances. the regular season game in green bay was the sickest game i've ever watched. all he needed to do was be barely above average and we win that one.
I agree that the GB game was vomit-inducing. I was so damned frustrated after that loss. I would say that Ponder only had to not suck that day and we would have won. Not even be "above average" but just not get in the way of the rest of the team. If I remember right he threw two interceptions in or near the end zone, with guys pretty wide open. AD ran like mad and after the game when a reporter asked a loaded question like, "what could the team have done better today," with the obvious answer of "have a QB that doesn't sabotage the team," AD responded that he could have done more! He'd run for over 200 yards. That was the day that AD earned some huge respect from me.

Fittingly, it was also against GB, in a high-stakes win or go home season finale game, that Ponder also showed a glimmer of hope that he might become the guy. He played solid ball in that last game, against our nemesis in a high-pressure situation, so I have a bit of hope for him. He just can't play like he did in that game in GB.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by Skoltastic_Voyage »

Boon wrote:
111 vs Detroit, 58 vs AZ, 63 vs Seattle, 119 vs Green Bay and he only broke 100 yards on the last pass of the game, 91 vs Chicago. You can't have games like this. I don't think the media would be digging as hard on him if these games were in the 200 range. Now his last 3 games werent all world performances. But he moved the chains with his arm and legs, made clutch throws on third downs and didn't turn the ball over.

I'm in the camp of intangibles. He has two new weapons, one being one of the better "student of the game" wideouts in the nfl. Like you said, stats don't tell the whole story, however, a stat like a sub-100 yard passing game in the nfl is something you can't ignore and just can NOT happen if he is to be taken seriously. If his receivers stay healthy , and even with the terminator there, anything short of 150 yards should raise an eyebrow and deservedly bring some heat on him if he does it more than once. It's not acceptable
I like Ponder I really do and have seen him do some things that great QB's [need to] do. 150 sounds a bit low with the talent he is going to have around him but like you said that should be the floor. He started out the year well and I expect he probably will again. I have seen Eli Manning throw Ints all day long and no one questioned him because he is ...
a.) a leader
b.) he aired it out and failed but at least he tried (ala Farve)

Ponder has to become a leader firstly, I know this sounds dumb but it's the truth. Second with the talent around him this year he should aim above 200 for all games except maybe one gimme.

I watched him in his 'Noles days and he looked like a deer in headlights then as well, if he calms down, makes good decisions with the talent around him he should have no problem having a good TD:INT ratio and decent (don't expect great with AD here) numbers in the air and the Vikes will be well off. I also don't care if he bolts out of the pocket on some plays/rolls right as long as he doesn't look like he is going to dump a load in his pants while doing it...
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

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This whole idea of using 150 or 200 yards as a measure of QB effectiveness doesn't make much sense to me. The yardage total is indicative of the overall performance of the passing offense, not just the QB, and it's influenced by everything from strategy and playcalling to the performance of the defense and special teams. The aspects of the game VikingLord listed above serve as much better measurements of QB performance. Just to reiterate, they were:

- Did he make the right read?
- Did he execute the play as designed?
- When he didn't, did his improvisation help or hurt? Was he able to make something out of a broken play?
- Is he consistent?
- When he adjusts plays pre-snap, are the adjustments correct? Are they warranted?
- What do they see from him in practices? Is he leading, or just going through the motions?

Obviously, sub-100 yard passing days are rarely an indication that good things are happening but the object of the game is to win, not to achieve a particular yardage mark each week. That's more important in fantasy football.

Don't get me wrong, I don't consider those low yardage totals acceptable. I'm just saying they occur as a result of the performance of the passing offense, not just the QB.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

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Boon wrote:He needs to stay consistent. Enough of the nonsense. You have arguably the GOAT standing behind you almost every play, and the focus of almost every defense you go up against, you should be shredding them. No excuses
:wallbang:

I agree that he needs to be consistent but if you want a QB to shred defenses, he has to be put in a position to do it and just having AD in the backfield does NOT do that, despite his greatness and the attention he draws from opponents. The Vikings did not give Ponder a great assortment of weapons in the passing game last season and they didn't protect him well. Since he was a second year QB with his own set of problems to deal with and growing to do, it's no surprise at all that he struggled mightily at times. There's no excuse for stupid INTs and other sloppy mental mistakes but if you want the QB to shred the defense, receivers better get open and make plays and the OL better keep the QB upright, with time to throw.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by Cliff »

Mothman wrote: :wallbang:

I agree that he needs to be consistent but if you want a QB to shred defenses, he has to be put in a position to do it and just having AD in the backfield does NOT do that, despite his greatness and the attention he draws from opponents. The Vikings did not give Ponder a great assortment of weapons in the passing game last season and they didn't protect him well. Since he was a second year QB with his own set of problems to deal with and growing to do, it's no surprise at all that he struggled mightily at times. There's no excuse for stupid INTs and other sloppy mental mistakes but if you want the QB to shred the defense, receivers better get open and make plays and the OL better keep the QB upright, with time to throw.
I've never understood the sentiment of "You've got possibly the greatest running back of all time, the passing yards should be through the roof!" ... it's just bad logic. Yes, having a good ground game can open up the passing game ... but while you're trying to shred the defense with the passing game the "GOAT" isn't running with the football.

It also shouldn't surprise people that the better the team did the less passing yards Ponder had. This team doing well meant they were able to hold the lead and run the clock out with their run game, not put up 500 yards.

It's like owning a Prius and complaining about the horse power ... you're missing the point.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

Post by mansquatch »

Jim I agree that yardage in of itself is a bad measuring stick of a QB, vs what you said, the whole passing offense.

However, I do think that it is one of many useful meausres of Ponder's overall performance. IMO, 150 yards a game is hardly a bad benchmark to use as a general indicator. Getting over that tells us things are improving. Now why that is a case is another quesiton and that is where we can get into specifics.

I guess I look at as more of a case where a certain number of things need to be happening at a certain competitive level to achieve 150 yards. If those things are happening given the VIkings style of offense, then I think more or less, things are on the up and up.

Now yes, other stats matter too, epsecially turnovers, But i don't think rejectiing the yardage is entirely warranted. It just needs to be understood that yards represent the whole of the passing offense and not just the QB.
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Re: Comparing Ponder's wins vs. losses in 2012

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Cliff wrote:I've never understood the sentiment of "You've got possibly the greatest running back of all time, the passing yards should be through the roof!" ... it's just bad logic. Yes, having a good ground game can open up the passing game ... but while you're trying to shred the defense with the passing game the "GOAT" isn't running with the football.
Exactly and if he's running it a lot, you're probably passing less.
It also shouldn't surprise people that the better the team did the less passing yards Ponder had. This team doing well meant they were able to hold the lead and run the clock out with their run game, not put up 500 yards.

It's like owning a Prius and complaining about the horse power ... you're missing the point.
LOL! well said.
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