Ponder's QBR

[dkoby]

Ponder was coddled with game plans and play calls that took his limitations into account. He rarely attempted any completion longer than 20 yds in the air and his accuracy on those throws was tragic. Bad underthrows mostly. The QBR does not really capture that.

Compare Ponder's passing yds per game to the other QB's in the division.

Stafford: 310
Rodgers: 268
Cutler: 202
Ponder: 183

Now look at attempts:
Stafford: 727
Rodgers: 552
Ponder: 483
Cutler: 434

Yards per attempt:
Stafford: 6.83
Rodgers: 7.78
Ponder: 6.08
Cutler: 6.99

Completion percentage:
Stafford: 59.8%
Rodgers: 67.2%
Cutler: 58.8%
Ponder: 62.1%

TD's / INT's:
Stafford: 20 / 17
Rodgers: 39 / 8
Cutler: 19 / 14
Ponder: 18 / 12

The long and the short of it is that Ponder was asked to do much less than Rodgers or Stafford and was far less productive. He was about as productive as Cutler, though. Hardly a comforting thought.

He was way better than Cassel, though.

Asked to do LESS???

You do know that Rodgers had probably the best overall receiving corps in football right? You do remember that Stafford has THE BEST receiver in football right? I would say that Ponder was asked to do MORE.

Now I'm still not sold on Ponder yet but that statement was ridiculous

[Raptorman]

We get so wrapped up in what he did last year. Does it really matter? It's what he does this year. I know, what he did last year is an indication of what he will do this year right? Maybe. Fact is we just don't know. He could be good, he could be bad. As fans we are always looking at things from our perspective. Who knows, maybe something click in the brain and the next thing you know he is putting up Rodgers like numbers. Time will tell. As fans we tend to pull the trigger on players pretty fast. Have to win now. And it hasn't changed over the year. Not saying he's going to be good but fans are always critical of players they don't think will do well.

A fans letter to the President of the Packers in 1959.

Starr underachieved in college and tanked a once great program. He was then a very low draft pick in the NFL. His rookie year, he sat and watched as his team's starting QB tied an NFL record for touchdowns. In his second year he was alright, posting decent numbers for a QB, and good numbers for a young QB, but he won just one game for his team. And in his third year, he was unquestionably the worst quarterback in the NFL, while his team went 0-6-1. We've got an underachieving player without much talent who is clearly regressing. Enough's enough: it's time to bench Bart Starr.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5008

[Mothman]

We get so wrapped up in what he did last year. Does it really matter? It's what he does this year. I know, what he did last year is an indication of what he will do this year right? Maybe. Fact is we just don't know. He could be good, he could be bad. As fans we are always looking at things from our perspective. Who knows, maybe something click in the brain and the next thing you know he is putting up Rodgers like numbers. Time will tell. As fans we tend to pull the trigger on players pretty fast. Have to win now. And it hasn't changed over the year. Not saying he's going to be good but fans are always critical of players they don't think will do well.

A fans letter to the President of the Packers in 1959. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5008

LOL! Thanks for posting that. That letter about Starr really says it all.

[soflavike]

Asked to do LESS???

You do know that Rodgers had probably the best overall receiving corps in football right? You do remember that Stafford has THE BEST receiver in football right? I would say that Ponder was asked to do MORE.

Now I'm still not sold on Ponder yet but that statement was ridiculous

Do you really think that Ponder's performance as a passer or range of passes in 2012 was comparable to Rodgers' or Stafford's?

Rodgers and Stafford did not have a running threat remotely in AD's ballpark and Rodgers had an OL that looked like a row of turnstiles (sacked 51 times).

Both of them threw the ball downfield frequently and effectively. Ponder didn't. I would be quicker to blame our weak receivers if I hadn't watched the poor quality of Ponder's long passes and his hesitancy to go deep when he dropped back and took a look. You can't complete long passes if you don't throw them (or the OC isn't calling them).

I stand by my "ridiculous" statement that Ponder was asked to do less as a passer than Rodgers or Stafford.

[Mothman]

of them threw the ball downfield frequently and effectively. Ponder didn't. I would be quicker to blame our weak receivers if I hadn't watched the poor quality of Ponder's long passes and his hesitancy to go deep when he dropped back and took a look. You can't complete long passes if you don't throw them (or the OC isn't calling them).

They didn't call a lot of them but even when they did, receivers weren't getting open deep down the field very often. I think that's why Ponder was reluctant to pull the trigger. I remember sitting in the stands at Soldier Field and marveling at the lack of open receivers for Ponder to throw to in that game. I marveled at it when watching coaches film of some of the other games too (particular the loss at Seattle).

Admittedly, some of Ponder's downfield throws were ugly. When he doesn't set properly, he tends to underthrow long passes but he started getting a better handle on that later in the season and hopefully that will continue. Give him time to set his feet and give him an open receiver deep and I think he'll complete more of long passes in 2013. Last year, the Vikes just didn't have the personnel to make the deep passing game a very significant part of their offense.

Jim

[mansquatch]

One thing that impresses me about Ponder is his ability to correct his mistakes. Mid-Season we were seeing make just stupid mistakes where he’d roll out and then put the ball up at the last second. After a few games of that, it stopped happening. This is why I think we’ve got a solid player in Ponder. Even in the midst of really an awful group or WR, he was able to take steps to improve.

Consider a few stats: Ponder had 13 picks in 11 games in 2011 or a rate of 1.18 per game, in 2012 he had 12 picks in 16 games or a rate of 0.75 per game. His completion % also increased from 54.4% to 62.1% and that was despite a terrible mid-season slump where he couldn’t buy a completion. Stats can be whatever people want them to be, but what stands out to me is that he was able to accomplish this given the complete absence of WR talent through the toughest stretch of the season and in a season where during a 6 game stretch his own play was abysmal. The question I think about is, what would the stat line have been if he hadn’t had the sophomore slump and that is really the rub on Ponder: Can he get rid of Mr. Hyde?

Fans are going to complain about the QB, they always do, but for me, Ponder is heading in the right direction. I may be wrong, but I believe we only lost one game last year where Ponder was turnover free. The Vikings style of football is ball control and a physical rushing attack. That is who they are. To expect that kind of team to compare to a GB or DET is ridiculous. They don’t call plays like that and they don’t want to. Yes the passing game can improve, but if fans think that AP is suddenly going to drop to 15 carries a game, then they are drinking a different brand of koolaid than Leslie Frasier.

I think WR could end up being like the Secondary last year. Assuming they can stay healthy we should have a pair of speedsters in JS and JW. Jennings will provide presence along with legitimacy at the position and KR should be his usual self. Not sure what will happen with John Carlson, but he has to know he is cap fodder at the end of this season if he doesn’t produce. Regardless there is a lot to like there right now. They’ll also probably add a draft pick for additional depth. The trajectory there is much better than it was a week ago.

I think our offense could have a very interesting start to the season. Teams will likely be throwing all kinds of “stop AP” packages at us after last season. That will be an environment ripe for the passing game to blow up. Call me crazy, but I suspect that by week 6 the concerns over Ponder’s deep ball will be silenced.

[Mothman]

One thing that impresses me about Ponder is his ability to correct his mistakes. Mid-Season we were seeing make just stupid mistakes where he’d roll out and then put the ball up at the last second. After a few games of that, it stopped happening. This is why I think we’ve got a solid player in Ponder. Even in the midst of really an awful group or WR, he was able to take steps to improve.

Consider a few stats: Ponder had 13 picks in 11 games in 2011 or a rate of 1.18 per game, in 2012 he had 12 picks in 16 games or a rate of 0.75 per game. His completion % also increased from 54.4% to 62.1% and that was despite a terrible mid-season slump where he couldn’t buy a completion. Stats can be whatever people want them to be, but what stands out to me is that he was able to accomplish this given the complete absence of WR talent through the toughest stretch of the season and in a season where during a 6 game stretch his own play was abysmal. The question I think about is, what would the stat line have been if he hadn’t had the sophomore slump and that is really the rub on Ponder: Can he get rid of Mr. Hyde?

Fans are going to complain about the QB, they always do, but for me, Ponder is heading in the right direction. I may be wrong, but I believe we only lost one game last year where Ponder was turnover free. The Vikings style of football is ball control and a physical rushing attack. That is who they are. To expect that kind of team to compare to a GB or DET is ridiculous. They don’t call plays like that and they don’t want to. Yes the passing game can improve, but if fans think that AP is suddenly going to drop to 15 carries a game, then they are drinking a different brand of koolaid than Leslie Frasier.

I think WR could end up being like the Secondary last year. Assuming they can stay healthy we should have a pair of speedsters in JS and JW. Jennings will provide presence along with legitimacy at the position and KR should be his usual self. Not sure what will happen with John Carlson, but he has to know he is cap fodder at the end of this season if he doesn’t produce. Regardless there is a lot to like there right now. They’ll also probably add a draft pick for additional depth. The trajectory there is much better than it was a week ago.

I think our offense could have a very interesting start to the season. Teams will likely be throwing all kinds of “stop AP” packages at us after last season. That will be an environment ripe for the passing game to blow up. Call me crazy, but I suspect that by week 6 the concerns over Ponder’s deep ball will be silenced.

It would be awesome to see things go that well ti start the season.

That was an excellent post. I loved the "Mr. Hyde" comment (very appropriate) and like you, I find Ponder's ability to learn from and correct mistakes encouraging.

[mansquatch]

I heard him described that way somewhere, don’t recall where. That take is why I don’t buy into the Ponder Hater stuff. Ponder isn’t like Joey Harrington where all you get is. Mr. Hyde. He has had some brilliant performances to go along with the not so great. I do not see how in light of that you can just say “he sucks” if you are taking a rational view of his body of work. But Opinions are like buttholes and everyone has one!

What I think will be entertaining is when the QB phenoms of last year go through their Re-Adjustment phase this season. RGIII, Luck, Kaepernick, and Wilson all have a full year of film to be watched. Cam Newton had quite the sophomore slump last year, it will be fun to see which of the 2012 young QBs do the same.

I for one think RGIII will be terrible if he even plays this year coming off that Knee Injury. My guess is he doesn’t come fully back until 2014. (and he might not ever be the same) I think Luck will have the “easiest” slump of the 3 as he is the most polished passer. I think Wilson and Kaepernick are the most likely to fall back to earth. The Ravens D showed that CK doesn’t go through his reads well, which makes him defendable. I didn’t see enough of Wilson, but when we played them they didn’t strike me as an elite team. Harvin will certainly make them a better team, but it will be interesting to see if Wilson regresses. I think in 2013 we’ll find out if the Read Option is here to stay or more of a fad.

The Sea Chickens are going to be the NYG as our non-divisional most hated team this decade. Well along with the Saints…

[PacificNorseWest]

One thing that impresses me about Ponder is his ability to correct his mistakes. Mid-Season we were seeing make just stupid mistakes where he’d roll out and then put the ball up at the last second. After a few games of that, it stopped happening. This is why I think we’ve got a solid player in Ponder. Even in the midst of really an awful group or WR, he was able to take steps to improve.

Consider a few stats: Ponder had 13 picks in 11 games in 2011 or a rate of 1.18 per game, in 2012 he had 12 picks in 16 games or a rate of 0.75 per game. His completion % also increased from 54.4% to 62.1% and that was despite a terrible mid-season slump where he couldn’t buy a completion. Stats can be whatever people want them to be, but what stands out to me is that he was able to accomplish this given the complete absence of WR talent through the toughest stretch of the season and in a season where during a 6 game stretch his own play was abysmal. The question I think about is, what would the stat line have been if he hadn’t had the sophomore slump and that is really the rub on Ponder: Can he get rid of Mr. Hyde?

Fans are going to complain about the QB, they always do, but for me, Ponder is heading in the right direction. I may be wrong, but I believe we only lost one game last year where Ponder was turnover free. The Vikings style of football is ball control and a physical rushing attack. That is who they are. To expect that kind of team to compare to a GB or DET is ridiculous. They don’t call plays like that and they don’t want to. Yes the passing game can improve, but if fans think that AP is suddenly going to drop to 15 carries a game, then they are drinking a different brand of koolaid than Leslie Frasier.

I think WR could end up being like the Secondary last year. Assuming they can stay healthy we should have a pair of speedsters in JS and JW. Jennings will provide presence along with legitimacy at the position and KR should be his usual self. Not sure what will happen with John Carlson, but he has to know he is cap fodder at the end of this season if he doesn’t produce. Regardless there is a lot to like there right now. They’ll also probably add a draft pick for additional depth. The trajectory there is much better than it was a week ago.

I think our offense could have a very interesting start to the season. Teams will likely be throwing all kinds of “stop AP” packages at us after last season. That will be an environment ripe for the passing game to blow up. Call me crazy, but I suspect that by week 6 the concerns over Ponder’s deep ball will be silenced.

Spot on. Good stuff squatch.

[soflavike]

They didn't call a lot of them but even when they did, receivers weren't getting open deep down the field very often. I think that's why Ponder was reluctant to pull the trigger. I remember sitting in the stands at Soldier Field and marveling at the lack of open receivers for Ponder to throw to in that game. I marveled at it when watching coaches film of some of the other games too (particular the loss at Seattle).

Admittedly, some of Ponder's downfield throws were ugly. When he doesn't set properly, he tends to underthrow long passes but he started getting a better handle on that later in the season and hopefully that will continue. Give him time to set his feet and give him an open receiver deep and I think he'll complete more of long passes in 2013. Last year, the Vikes just didn't have the personnel to make the deep passing game a very significant part of their offense.

Jim

That's true, but sometimes you have to throw it up for a receiver to make a play... the rules are stacked to favor the wide receiver on a long ball. If it doesn't get caught, you might get a PI call. At the very least you make the secondary respect your deep game, which opens up slants underneath, running plays, screens, you name it. You have to sell the secondary on the idea that you will throw it downfield if they give you a favorable look.

The problem, in my view, is that Ponder seemed to lack the confidence, the arm or the permission to do it. You can blame the WR's if you want, but maybe they weren't getting that many catchable balls thrown in their direction (other than little screens and outs and 3 yard slants). The reason Ponder's completion percentage looks pretty good is because he didn't try to throw it deep, or even medium range very much at all. He completed a ton of short passes. You aren't scaring anyone when your average throw to a WR is just over 19 feet deep (yes, feet).

Some stats to ponder...

Wide Receivers (2012 season):
Harvin: 62 receptions, 677 yards receiving, 531 were Yards After the Catch (YAC)
The average throw to Harvin, our #1 WR, was 2.3 yards deep!
Jenkins: 40 receptions, 449 yards receiving, 137 YAC
Wright: 22 receptions, 310 yards receiving, 92 YAC
Simpson: 26 receptions, 274 yards receiving, 55 YAC
Aromashodu: 11 receptions, 182 yards receiving, 38 YAC
Burton: 5 receptions, 35 yards receiving, 23 YAC
Wide Receivers totals: 166 receptions, 1927 yards, 876 YAC
Average pass distance in the air to our WR's: 6.33 yards

Tight Ends (2012)
Rudolph: 53 receptions, 496 yards receiving, 273 YAC
Carlson: 8 receptions, 43 yards receiving, 20 YAC
Ellison: 7 receptions, 65 yards receiving, 62 YAC
Reisner: 1 reception, 13 yards receiving, 2 YAC
Tight Ends totals: 69 receptions, 617 yards, 357 YAC
Average pass distance in the air to our TE's: 3.77 yards

Running Backs (2012)
Peterson: 40 receptions, 217 yards receiving, 194 YAC
Gerhart: 20 receptions, 155 yards receiving, 118 YAC
Felton: 3 receptions, 35 yards receiving, 15 YAC
Asiata: 1 reception, 2 yards receiving, 4 YAC
Running Backs Totals: 64 receptions, 473 yards, 331 YAC
Average pass distance in air to our RB's: 2.2 yards

Totals for all players listed above:
Receptions: 299
Yards: 3017
YAC: 1564
Yards in Air: 1453
Average yards in air per completion: 4.85

I know numbers don't tell the whole story, but they do provide perspective.

[mondry]

Where did you get your stats? do you have a link?

Let's remove Harvin's stats for a second

104 receptions, 1250 receiving, 345 YAC

Average pass distance in the air to our WR's minus harvin: 8.7 yards

8.7 yards isn't awful for everyone else and I don't blame them for throwing shorter to Harvin, he clearly was good at getting YAC! I mean seriously, that's gotta be some kind of record for % of YAC equaling total yardage. However, Harvin's gone, and while Jennings is a decent YAC guy himself it's almost inevitable the APD will increase because of that but if we take Harvin's stats out, it really isn't THAT bad all things considered.

[Mothman]

That's true, but sometimes you have to throw it up for a receiver to make a play...

True, but when he did that to receivers like Jenkins, Simpson and Aromashodu (and he did) they rarely made a play. That's no reason to stop trying altogether but I can see why the Vikings would shy away from attempting too many of those low percentage plays because they just weren't working very well. Hopefully, with better options in 2013, Ponder will be more inclined to take that chance and it will succeed more often.

The problem, in my view, is that Ponder seemed to lack the confidence, the arm or the permission to do it. You can blame the WR's if you want, but maybe they weren't getting that many catchable balls thrown in their direction (other than little screens and outs and 3 yard slants).

I'm not sure I really blame anybody, since that word implies assigning responsibility for doing something wrong. I believe it was, in all likelihood, a strategic decision based on the limitations of the blocking, the receivers and probably the quarterback as well. I honestly don't think Ponder's confidence had much to do with it but his footwork and execution might have...

I also think the focus on how many short passes he threw and how few deep passes he threw has been WAY overplayed. Personally, I look at least year's personnel on offense, taking Simpson's injuries into consideration, and I find it easy to understand why the Vikings used the approach they did.

The reason Ponder's completion percentage looks pretty good is because he didn't try to throw it deep, or even medium range very much at all. He completed a ton of short passes. You aren't scaring anyone when your average throw to a WR is just over 19 feet deep (yes, feet).

They weren't scaring anyone by sending Aromashodu, Simpson, Jenkins or Wright deep either, although Wright caught a few of them and if he keeps doing that, he'll start to scare defenses. I get what you're saying about the need to challenge down the field but without the personnel to do it effectively, it's just not worth doing that often. I think they could have done it more but attributing the choice to minimize that strategy to Ponder's confidence or limitations seems like a stretch to me when a.) they were willing to let him make those throws and have been since his first throw in his first NFL start and b.) there were clearly other problems with that strategy.

Harvin: 62 receptions, 677 yards receiving, 531 were Yards After the Catch (YAC)
The average throw to Harvin, our #1 WR, was 2.3 yards deep!
Jenkins: 40 receptions, 449 yards receiving, 137 YAC
Wright: 22 receptions, 310 yards receiving, 92 YAC
Simpson: 26 receptions, 274 yards receiving, 55 YAC
Aromashodu: 11 receptions, 182 yards receiving, 38 YAC
Burton: 5 receptions, 35 yards receiving, 23 YAC
Wide Receivers totals: 166 receptions, 1927 yards, 876 YAC
Average pass distance in the air to our WR's: 6.33 yards

Average pass distance in the air is an interesting but not terribly relevant stat since the end goal is to gain yards, not to make sure the ball travels as far as possible in the air and as little as necessary on the ground. Bill Walsh's extremely successful west coast offense was predicated on the strategy of getting the ball to receivers in position to run after the catch and when that's the strength of a receiver (like Harvin), it makes perfect sense to do that often. What Harvin's stat line above tells me is that their strategy to get the ball to him on quick, high percentage passes was extremely effective. They played to his strengths and it shows. It doesn't matter if the average pass to him was 2.3 yards deep if he gained 677 yards on those passes, that's the bottom line. If he was, on average, gaining another 8.6 ypc after catching those 2.3 yard passes, he was essentially averaging a first down on every catch. I know the numbers probably don't work out quite that way but the point is, those 2.3 yard passes were resulting in much bigger than 2.3 yard gains and it's the gains that count.

I appreciate you putting all those stats together and honestly, I do get your point. I think they have to find a way top open the offense up more and I believe that will be beneficial but I think the personnel has to be in place to do it and I don't think it was last year. Ultimately, effective offense is far more important to me than ideal offense so more than anything else, I want the Vikes to play to their strengths. I think they tried to do that last year.

[soflavike]

Where did you get your stats? do you have a link?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/playe ... fied/false

Let's remove Harvin's stats for a second

104 receptions, 1250 receiving, 345 YAC

Average pass distance in the air to our WR's minus harvin: 8.7 yards

8.7 yards isn't awful for everyone else and I don't blame them for throwing shorter to Harvin, he clearly was good at getting YAC! I mean seriously, that's gotta be some kind of record for % of YAC equaling total yardage. However, Harvin's gone, and while Jennings is a decent YAC guy himself it's almost inevitable the APD will increase because of that but if we take Harvin's stats out, it really isn't THAT bad all things considered.

I love your optimism!

[soflavike]

Average pass distance in the air is an interesting but not terribly relevant stat since the end goal is to gain yards, not to make sure the ball travels as far as possible in the air and as little as necessary on the ground. Bill Walsh's extremely successful west coast offense was predicated on the strategy of getting the ball to receivers in position to run after the catch and when that's the strength of a receiver (like Harvin), it makes perfect sense to do that often. What Harvin's stat line above tells me is that their strategy to get the ball to him on quick, high percentage passes was extremely effective. They played to his strengths and it shows. It doesn't matter if the average pass to him was 2.3 yards deep if he gained 677 yards on those passes, that's the bottom line. If he was, on average, gaining another 8.6 ypc after catching those 2.3 yard passes, he was essentially averaging a first down on every catch. I know the numbers probably don't work out quite that way but the point is, those 2.3 yard passes were resulting in much bigger than 2.3 yard gains and it's the gains that count.

Yes, absolutely...yards in the air is not very meaningful as a measure of a passing game's overall effectiveness. I was simply supporting my statement that Ponder didn't throw deep completions very often.

I appreciate you putting all those stats together and honestly, I do get your point. I think they have to find a way top open the offense up more and I believe that will be beneficial but I think the personnel has to be in place to do it and I don't think it was last year. Ultimately, effective offense is far more important to me than ideal offense so more than anything else, I want the Vikes to play to their strengths. I think they tried to do that last year.

Again, I agree... our WR's were less than effective getting open deep and throwing it downfield with accuracy is not one of Ponder's strengths, so they purposely engineered the game plans and play calls to avoid the long ball. I don't really blame the coaches for doing that. You go with your strengths, and avoid your weaknesses. That doesn't excuse the weaknesses, though.

[Mothman]

Yes, absolutely...yards in the air is not very meaningful as a measure of a passing game's overall effectiveness. I was simply supporting my statement that Ponder didn't throw deep completions very often.

Oh, in that case you went to more trouble than necessary, although I truly did appreciate the stats. I would have agreed that Ponder didn't throw deep completions very often even without the stats.

Again, I agree... our WR's were less than effective getting open deep and throwing it downfield with accuracy is not one of Ponder's strengths, so they purposely engineered the game plans and play calls to avoid the long ball. I don't really blame the coaches for doing that. You go with your strengths, and avoid your weaknesses. That doesn't excuse the weaknesses, though.

No, it doesn't and this season, I hope if they are sending better receivers on those deep routes and giving Ponder time, that he will come through with good throws and more downfield completions. If not, it will definitely be a problem.