How we will make the playoffs

[Raptorman]

I don't understand how people think we can win all of these last three games. I think we lose to the Packers and Texans, and just pull off a win against the rams. Even if we did win the next three games, we would still have to have a lot of other things happen in our favor. I see our playoff probabilities being very slim. Don't mind me though, just living in reality.

Because anything can happen in the NFL. You just never know who is going to win.

Ponder may have an epiphany and become a half way decent QB.

I can see them beating the Rams and Packers. Houston might be a little tougher. Fortunately, they play a game between the beat-down that New England gave them and the Vikings. Houston need to win one game of the last three to take their division. They play Indy, the Vikes and Indy again.

Possible, not probable.

[Mothman]

I agree with your take. Despite the glaring issues at WR/QB the team as a whole has greatly over performed expectations. The highest most people were predicting this club was 6-10, yet we are alraedy at 7-6. Most of the losses were very close and most were due to the aforementioned deficieincies. This was billed as a team in rebuilding, but I do not think we are in that category any longer. We are probably 2 guys away from a contender. The problem is one of those guys is the QB.

Not that it matters but I'd say they remain firmly in rebuilding mode. I think they're entering another stage of rebuilding but with big needs at several positions and some players getting old enough that they will have to be replaced very soon, I'd say the Vikes will enter next year as a rebuilding team too. Of course, it depends on how one views that term. I don't see rebuilding as a euphemism for bad or even "unable to compete for a playoff spot" and understandably, some people do. I see it as a process and to me, the Vikes are still in the middle of that process,especially with the QB position so unresolved.

The distinction really doesn't matter anyway.

What's important is that, as you and Cliff pointed out, the Vikings have exceeded most expectations this season. I'm certainly not ruling out another win or two, although 3 seems unlikely with 2 games remaining on the road. It will be fun to see how it plays out.

[Dark]

Not that it matters but I'd say they remain firmly in rebuilding mode. I think they're entering another stage of rebuilding but with big needs at several positions and some players getting old enough that they will have to be replaced very soon, I'd say the Vikes will enter next year as a rebuilding team too. Of course, it depends on how one views that term. I don't see rebuilding as a euphemism for bad or even "unable to compete for a playoff spot" and understandably, some people do. I see it as a process and to me, the Vikes are still in the middle of that process,especially with the QB position so unresolved.

The distinction really doesn't matter anyway.

What's important is that, as you and Cliff pointed out, the Vikings have exceeded most expectations this season. I'm certainly not ruling out another win or two, although 3 seems unlikely with 2 games remaining on the road. It will be fun to see how it plays out.

I agree with you, I would love to see us in the playoffs this year, although I don't want us to make any moves that are going to hurt us in the long run.

[S197]

I think they're entering another stage of rebuilding but with big needs at several positions and some players getting old enough that they will have to be replaced very soon, I'd say the Vikes will enter next year as a rebuilding team too.

Just trying to think of some of the potential players that will need to be replaced in the next few years. Winfield probably has another year or two. Robinson may fill this role, he's not the tackler Winfield is (who is) but he doesn't seem to be a liability there either *cough*AJ Jefferson*cough*

Kevin Williams is in his twilight years. Griffen seems to be working out well at tackle but he seems more complimentary to Williams than a replacement. I have seen Ballard getting more snaps as of late and Guion is playing adequately.

On offense, I think the main guy who needs to be replaced is Charlie Johnson. Other than that, the line is young as is most of the rest of the offense. Even Johnson isn't very old at 28 but relative to the others he has some years.

This is just taking into account age. Obviously there are other positions that need to be addressed due to lack of talent but the youth movement is definitely in effect. Did I miss anyone?

[Mothman]

Just trying to think of some of the potential players that will need to be replaced in the next few years. Winfield probably has another year or two. Robinson may fill this role, he's not the tackler Winfield is (who is) but he doesn't seem to be a liability there either *cough*AJ Jefferson*cough*

Kevin Williams is in his twilight years. Griffen seems to be working out well at tackle but he seems more complimentary to Williams than a replacement. I have seen Ballard getting more snaps as of late and Guion is playing adequately.

On offense, I think the main guy who needs to be replaced is Charlie Johnson. Other than that, the line is young as is most of the rest of the offense. Even Johnson isn't very old at 28 but relative to the others he has some years.

This is just taking into account age. Obviously there are other positions that need to be addressed due to lack of talent but the youth movement is definitely in effect. Did I miss anyone?

Maybe Allen, although I think he can be good for several more years... otherwise, I think you've got it. As you said, the youth movement is in effect.

[mansquatch]

Not that it matters but I'd say they remain firmly in rebuilding mode. I think they're entering another stage of rebuilding but with big needs at several positions and some players getting old enough that they will have to be replaced very soon, I'd say the Vikes will enter next year as a rebuilding team too. Of course, it depends on how one views that term. I don't see rebuilding as a euphemism for bad or even "unable to compete for a playoff spot" and understandably, some people do. I see it as a process and to me, the Vikes are still in the middle of that process,especially with the QB position so unresolved.

The distinction really doesn't matter anyway.

What's important is that, as you and Cliff pointed out, the Vikings have exceeded most expectations this season. I'm certainly not ruling out another win or two, although 3 seems unlikely with 2 games remaining on the road. It will be fun to see how it plays out.

Moth, I respectfully dissagree a little bit. Consider a hypothetical: All things being equal on the 2012 roster, except you replace Jerome Simpson with VJAX or Garcon and you add Peyton Manning. (A possible FA sceanrio last season, even if extremely unlikely) That team is probably the darling of the NFC and easily a contender, possibly a SB favorite. (Key here is it is based on what we know now. hindsight 20/20 and all that, but that isn't where I'm going)

Now, I know that sounds silly and obnoxious, but there is an ounce of wisdom to it:

Consider the state of the roster such a scenario implies. We are MUCH better off now than we were last season. Our Defense is solid, not top of the league solid, but with more help from the offense easily top 10 material. The OL has become a strength (still room for improvement) and we are elite at RB and Slot, plus good to great at TE. Point is, we are missing two critical pieces: A #1 WR and a true starting QB.

A little further proof: I bet at least 4 of our losses would have been wins with an average to good QB. That makes us 11-2 and the #2 seed in the NFC and probably 4-1 or better in the NFC North. That isn't much of a stretch given how we lost to Tampa, Indy, GB, and Seattle.

So yes we are a rebuilding team in that we are severly lacking in WR talent/ depth and our current QB play is awful. That also means we are a team that is probably 1-2 guys away from a run. So now in FA the conversation could change. Depening on one's point of view, that constitutes a window for a SB.

It makes me wonder what this team could do if it went after say a Phillip Rivers and one of the top WR in FA. I know neither solution is ideal, but that could be enough with AP and Harvin for them to make a run.

All hypothetical, but the main point is that this team is now much closer to such a window than it was last year.

[Mothman]

Moth, I respectfully dissagree a little bit. Consider a hypothetical: All things being equal on the 2012 roster, except you replace Jerome Simpson with VJAX or Garcon and you add Peyton Manning. (A possible FA sceanrio last season, even if extremely unlikely) That team is probably the darling of the NFC and easily a contender, possibly a SB favorite. (Key here is it is based on what we know now. hindsight 20/20 and all that, but that isn't where I'm going)

Now, I know that sounds silly and obnoxious, but there is an ounce of wisdom to it:

Consider the state of the roster such a scenario implies. We are MUCH better off now than we were last season. Our Defense is solid, not top of the league solid, but with more help from the offense easily top 10 material. The OL has become a strength (still room for improvement) and we are elite at RB and Slot, plus good to great at TE. Point is, we are missing two critical pieces: A #1 WR and a true starting QB.

A little further proof: I bet at least 4 of our losses would have been wins with an average to good QB. That makes us 11-2 and the #2 seed in the NFC and probably 4-1 or better in the NFC North. That isn't much of a stretch given how we lost to Tampa, Indy, GB, and Seattle.

So yes we are a rebuilding team in that we are severly lacking in WR talent/ depth and our current QB play is awful. That also means we are a team that is probably 1-2 guys away from a run. So now in FA the conversation could change. Depening on one's point of view, that constitutes a window for a SB.

It makes me wonder what this team could do if it went after say a Phillip Rivers and one of the top WR in FA. I know neither solution is ideal, but that could be enough with AP and Harvin for them to make a run.

All hypothetical, but the main point is that this team is now much closer to such a window than it was last year.

I think they're closer too, which is why I said they were entering another stage of the rebuilding process. However, we see the team a little differently. For example, I don't think better QB play alone would have yielded an additional 4 wins (although it probably would have resulted in more wins) and I'm not convinced the Vikes would have a top 10 defense this year even with a better offense, although they might be close to that level. I wouldn't say the OL is a strength just yet either. As a run-blocking unit, they're a strength but as a pass blocking unit, they've played a significant role in some of this year's losses and I think the struggles they've had with opposing pass rushers and blitzes illustrates that. I realize some of the responsibility for those struggles falls on non-OL blockers and perhaps even on the QB but I still think that unit has a ways to go in pass protection.

We're not as far apart on those facets of the team as it may sound above but in terms of making a Super Bowl run, I think both the offense and the defense have some work to do and I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if they could make such a run next year.

I seem to be less forgiving of the defense than many fans this year. Maybe I'm too harsh on them. I've just seen them allow too many long drives and too much yardage on the ground to feel very comfortable with them and I'm less willing than some fans to attribute their issues to short fields and poor offense. I think they need a DT and an impact LB in a pretty big way. It doesn't look like they need the kind of work the offense does but they aren't where they need to be yet. The secondary probably is much improved but still think there's a little building left to do there too.

The bottom line is the Vikes are much better so even if we don't agree completely about where they are, I think we agree that they're on their way...

[S197]

I seem to be less forgiving of the defense than many fans this year. Maybe I'm too harsh on them. I've just seen them allow too many long drives and too much yardage on the ground to feel very comfortable with them and I'm less willing than some fans to attribute their issues to short fields and poor offense.

The defense certainly has struggled at times but I think we're at least seeing progress in some areas. They were afterall responsible for 2/3rd's of the points last week. They created two turnovers and almost had a third (Robison's strip on Rodgers). I think where they're poorest is when they go into those prevent defenses late in the half/game. For some inexplicable reason they seem to give up inexcusable points at junctions where you know the offense is going to be looking deep down field (Reggie Wayne right before halftime, Cecil Shorts at the end of regulation, the Brandon Marshall TD, etc.).

To me, it's questionable if this is the players' fault or the coaches. The Marshall TD for instance, you simply can't leave him one on one with Robinson. There was absolutely no safety in sight. Was that a breakdown by Smith/Sanford or was that poor playcalling by the DC?

I think they need a DT and an impact LB in a pretty big way. It doesn't look like they need the kind of work the offense does but they aren't where they need to be yet. The secondary probably is much improved but still think there's a little building left to do there too.

I'm not entirely convinced they need a DT. Griffen is doing a great job on nickel downs and Guion seems to have stepped up his game. We will need a replacement for KWill so that will be something to consider but I don't know if it's an immediate need compared to other positions. I agree on LB. I don't really understand why Brinkley is still on the field in nickel downs. Henderson may not be great but you know there's a problem when the only pass defense your LB has is with his butt. I found it rather amusing Brinkley was celebrating after that play when clearly he had no idea where the ball was.

[GoldenBear91]

So... I guess we're rooting for the Bears to beat the Packers this week?

go bears

I always root against the Packers...

[mansquatch]

I always root against the Packers...

Indeed!

[BGM]

I don't understand how people think we can win all of these last three games.

Did you believe the Vikings were going to beat the Bears this past week. i certainly did not see that coming. I know Any Given Sunday is a cliche, but it has proven itself over and over this season. That said, it will take some monumental play by the team to win all three games. But out of the realm of realistic possibility? No.

[Pepper2Moss]

I agree, Packers over Bears gives the Vikes the best shot at getting in. Hopefully the AFC North can sweep the NFC East this week.

[Orion]

Perfect day would be Vikings win, GB wins, and (duh) Chicago loses as well as Skins and Dallas.

Actually if that happens, the Vikings would move into the number 6 seed! Then our destiny is COMPLETELY in our hands.

And that scenario is completely realistic, given Skins may not have RG3 (or he won't be 100%) and Dallas is playing a tough Steelers team and of course GB is favored to beat Chicago.

[jeg067]

I think we should root for the Bears.

I think IF WE WIN OUR THREE REMAINING GAMES (it's a big if),
we just need the Skins and Cowboys to lose one.

- If Chicago looses against GB, they're 10-6 at best and only 3-3 in the division.
Since we're 1-1 in head-to-head we have the tie-breaker against them.

- If Chicago wins, it means GB is 10-6 at best
First tie-breaker : Head-to-head : 1-1.
2d tie-breaker : 4-2 in the division for both teams.
3th tie-breaker : % of win in common games. We played the exact same teams except 2 :
They're 1-1 against Giants/Saints, and we're 0-2 against the Skins and Tampa.
Since they have a better record against the "different" opponents,
we're better against the common ones !

Means we can root for the Bears on next Sunday, and hope they loose another game later,
meaning we could even win the division.

I hope I didn't make any mistake... but let's start by winning those 3 games...

[Raptorman]

I think we should root for the Bears.

Well, either the Skins or Cowboys will lose at least one because they play each other. Both cannot win out.