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Something to keep in mind....

In the first 9 games, the Vikings face one QB with a winning record as an NFL starter. His name? John Skelton.

dead_poet wrote:Something to keep in mind....

In the first 9 games, the Vikings face one QB with a winning record as an NFL starter. His name? John Skelton.

That's an interesting stat. They're set to face quite a few rookies and second year QBs in that stretch but they'll also face Stafford who is clearly capable of lighting up a defense and Alex Smith (who showed a lot of progress last season and plays on an excellent team).

Hopefully, the Vikes defense can force some of those relatively young quarterbacks to make big mistakes!

I would be happy with an 8-8 finish this year. Realistically, I think the Vikes are a 6-10 or 7-9 team this year.

soflavike wrote:I would be happy with an 8-8 finish this year. Realistically, I think the Vikes are a 6-10 or 7-9 team this year.

they say a coach needs 3 years. i'm sure vikes will be closer to 5-11 than 8-8. even so im not so quickly on giving up on frazier.

soflavike wrote:I would be happy with an 8-8 finish this year. Realistically, I think the Vikes are a 6-10 or 7-9 team this year.

I remember the Vikes beat guys saying if Frazier went 8-8 this year he'd be a legit candidate for Coach of the Year. It's going to be a long, frustrating season and my expectations are tempered and soaked in whiskey. All I'm looking for is progress and -- God willing -- a reason to hope.

dead_poet wrote: I remember the Vikes beat guys saying if Frazier went 8-8 this year he'd be a legit candidate for Coach of the Year.

Maybe if they go 8-8 and their opponents have a cumulative winning record, which right now seems highly unlikely.

Best Case 6-10 (2-4 in division)
Probably 5-11
Worst Case 3-13 (0-6 in division)

I could actually see this team with more road wins than home wins.
First time that's happened since.....last year.

Just bringing this topic back up to the front. I know, maybe I should have waited another week so we saw the final results. But by then, maybe we won't want to talk about it anymore because the season is over.

The most obvious takeaway: the team overperformed everyone's expectations. My interpretation is that we weren't a 3 win team last year - we were a 6 win team that lost too many close games on a single play. And we have guys making that play this year, as well as a general improvement in talent. The other interpretation is that no one thought AD would have this kind of season. Who could have possibly predicted he would be better after knee surgery? What bionic replacement did he get?

mondry wrote:I'm gonna go with 8-8.

Damn, I wasn't optimistic enough!

Could have made a ton of money making bets asgainst some of these predictions! hehe.

Eli wrote: Maybe if they go 8-8 and their opponents have a cumulative winning record, which right now seems highly unlikely.

I'm surprised that there was so much talk about how easy our schedule was going to be (and I think I saw someone recently talking about how easy it actually was). According to this: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/ ... f-schedule, the Vikings were looking to face opponents who cumulatively went .512 in 2011 or the 8th hardest schedule.

As of today the 16 opponents are a combined .510. I'm not sure where that ranks us, but I would think it is in the top 12. We'll have had 9 games against opponents with winning records and a 10th (STL) that could end up with a winning or losing record, depending on how they do next week. We've gone 3-5 against the first 8 (the last GB game being the 9th). If we win and STL wins, we could be 5-5 against teams with winning records.

Anyway-- I think we met the metric above to consider Frazier a COTY candidate. He went 9-7 (maybe 10-6) against teams with a cumulative .510 record. If we win next week and we go 5-5 against winning teams and 5-1 against losing teams, it will be quite an achievement. Nice to have mostly beaten the teams we were supposed to beat an having split with winning teams.

If the spreadsheet I made was right and the data got entered correctly, GB got 11 wins against teams cumulatively .445 and lost 4 to teams .642. The Vikes got 9 wins against teams cumulatively .437 and lost 6 to teams cumulatively .611. GB is currently 4-4 against winning teams.

John_Viveiros wrote:Just bringing this topic back up to the front. I know, maybe I should have waited another week so we saw the final results. But by then, maybe we won't want to talk about it anymore because the season is over.

The most obvious takeaway: the team overperformed everyone's expectations. My interpretation is that we weren't a 3 win team last year - we were a 6 win team that lost too many close games on a single play. And we have guys making that play this year, as well as a general improvement in talent. The other interpretation is that no one thought AD would have this kind of season. Who could have possibly predicted he would be better after knee surgery? What bionic replacement did he get?

That was a big part of it for me. I just didn't think AD would be able to be a big factor for the entire season. I was way off with my prediction. I thought a .500 record was their ceiling and they've already exceeded that so I'm thrilled with their overall performance.

I had the vikes around 4 wins. I had them losing every game after the bye. That is why Vegas and I do not get along.

joe h wrote:We have the talent and schedule to go 8-8, would not be shocked if we win two more games and grab a wc.

Anything less and I will be done with the frazier.

What a prediction this was!

While my predictions were not as pessimistic as some, I obviously (and would have admitted it even without the tangible reminder of my earlier prediction) did not expect the Vikings to contend for a playoff spot this year. I guess I better get to work on that statue for Frazier. Should it be in front of the Metrodome or at Winter Park?

I swear I said something like
Sweep Lions
Split with Bears and Packers
9-7 or 10-6, WC maybe

I can't find my genius on the forums, though.