Vikings Message Board.Com

VikingLord wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:49 pm

J. Kapp 11 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:20 pm
To be fair, that's where gut feel falls short of statistics. Coming into the Chiefs game, Cousins was indeed near the top of the NFL in almost all deep ball stats.

And if we're going off recall, there was the bomb to Diggs against GB, the two bombs to Diggs against Philly, the deep ball from his own end zone to Diggs against Washington, two 30-ish-yard-TDs to Thielen off play action, etc. Along with any misses, there are plenty of connections and great throws.

Yeah, he's hit some for sure.

Almost every one of his misses is an overthrow too. Not sure if that is mechanics, he's too hyped, receivers aren't fast enough, etc.

That's definitely true. He does tend to overthrow when he misses. Heck, that's even true on short passes. Or at least it was this week. He had "a career-high 12 overthrows," according to ESPN.com. Not one of his better days, for sure.

J. Kapp 11 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:51 pm That's definitely true. He does tend to overthrow when he misses. Heck, that's even true on short passes. Or at least it was this week. He had "a career-high 12 overthrows," according to ESPN.com. Not one of his better days, for sure.

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I think an overthrow on a long pass is probably less likely to get intercepted, than an underthrow.

Thaumaturgist wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:08 am

J. Kapp 11 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:51 pm That's definitely true. He does tend to overthrow when he misses. Heck, that's even true on short passes. Or at least it was this week. He had "a career-high 12 overthrows," according to ESPN.com. Not one of his better days, for sure.

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I think an overthrow on a long pass is probably less likely to get intercepted, than an underthrow.

Yep, I think you nailed it. Kirk seems risk-averse... and overthrowing is safer than underthrowing.

For me, on the deep stuff, I'd rather he overthrow. Throws where the receiver has to hold up and wait for the ball drive me nuts (unless intentional). We had to suffer through that all the time with Ponder. No thanks. We don't see that much from Kirk. We honestly don't see a lot of the overthrows on the short stuff from him either. He was just misfiring in KC.

Thaumaturgist wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:08 am

J. Kapp 11 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:51 pm That's definitely true. He does tend to overthrow when he misses. Heck, that's even true on short passes. Or at least it was this week. He had "a career-high 12 overthrows," according to ESPN.com. Not one of his better days, for sure.

.
I think an overthrow on a long pass is probably less likely to get intercepted, than an underthrow.

Here's the thing, though. His receivers are open on those throws more often than not. I'd say he is making a deep throw, which is more difficult to some degree, but in the situations where he is throwing it, not inherently more risky than a mid-range or shorter throw.

He also works extensively with his receivers. I'd have to assume he knows how fast Diggs and Thielen are, and that he has practiced those deep routes and throws many times with them, both this year and last.

So why are the balls continuing to sail over them? And why does that seem to happen more when the Vikings are playing better teams than when they're playing chumps? During the 4 game win streak against a series of not-so-good teams, I think Cousins had maybe one or at the most 2 such overthrows, but put him up against the Bears, Packers, or Chiefs, and the deep balls are consistently overthrown, assuming they are even attempted.

I get the risk aversion argument in a case where he's making a deep throw to a covered receiver or on a broken play ala what Matt Moore pulled off several times against the Vikings defense last Sunday. But the deep throws we're seeing from Cousins are rarely like that (in fact, I don't recall one deep throw like that).

Cousins used to be known for his deep ball accuracy. If he's hitting those throws, the Vikings are almost impossible to stop, so why he consistently struggles to do it against better teams is beyond me, but it is costly and I can completely understand the frustration of a guy like Diggs who runs his behind off to get open deep, only to watch the ball land beyond him.

If history holds, we're going to see more deep ball misses from Cousins against the Cowboys. I hope not, but that is what he's been doing consistently all year against better teams, and Dallas is a better team.

VikingLord wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:58 pm

Thaumaturgist wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:08 am .
I think an overthrow on a long pass is probably less likely to get intercepted, than an underthrow.

Here's the thing, though. His receivers are open on those throws more often than not. I'd say he is making a deep throw, which is more difficult to some degree, but in the situations where he is throwing it, not inherently more risky than a mid-range or shorter throw.

He also works extensively with his receivers. I'd have to assume he knows how fast Diggs and Thielen are, and that he has practiced those deep routes and throws many times with them, both this year and last.

So why are the balls continuing to sail over them? And why does that seem to happen more when the Vikings are playing better teams than when they're playing chumps? During the 4 game win streak against a series of not-so-good teams, I think Cousins had maybe one or at the most 2 such overthrows, but put him up against the Bears, Packers, or Chiefs, and the deep balls are consistently overthrown, assuming they are even attempted.

I get the risk aversion argument in a case where he's making a deep throw to a covered receiver or on a broken play ala what Matt Moore pulled off several times against the Vikings defense last Sunday. But the deep throws we're seeing from Cousins are rarely like that (in fact, I don't recall one deep throw like that).

Cousins used to be known for his deep ball accuracy. If he's hitting those throws, the Vikings are almost impossible to stop, so why he consistently struggles to do it against better teams is beyond me, but it is costly and I can completely understand the frustration of a guy like Diggs who runs his behind off to get open deep, only to watch the ball land beyond him.

If history holds, we're going to see more deep ball misses from Cousins against the Cowboys. I hope not, but that is what he's been doing consistently all year against better teams, and Dallas is a better team.

Q3 9:19 3rd 13 Kirk Cousins pass complete deep middle to Stefon Diggs for 45 yards, touchdown.

In case you don't recognize that play, it was against Green Bay.

Dames wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:56 pm

Thaumaturgist wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:08 am .
I think an overthrow on a long pass is probably less likely to get intercepted, than an underthrow.

Yep, I think you nailed it. Kirk seems risk-averse... and overthrowing is safer than underthrowing.

For me, on the deep stuff, I'd rather he overthrow. Throws where the receiver has to hold up and wait for the ball drive me nuts (unless intentional). We had to suffer through that all the time with Ponder. No thanks. We don't see that much from Kirk. We honestly don't see a lot of the overthrows on the short stuff from him either. He was just misfiring in KC.

The misfires at KC might have been caused by many different things. Bad read, bad route, bad throw ect.... Most think KC defense sucks. How do we know that by some stupid ranking that really has very little meaning. If depends on who a team plays. Our D looked great against the Skins (big deal) and many of us felt our D would play great against a backup QB. I thought we would but the guy smoked us right off the bat.

Dames wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:56 pm

Thaumaturgist wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:08 am .
I think an overthrow on a long pass is probably less likely to get intercepted, than an underthrow.

Yep, I think you nailed it. Kirk seems risk-averse... and overthrowing is safer than underthrowing.

For me, on the deep stuff, I'd rather he overthrow. Throws where the receiver has to hold up and wait for the ball drive me nuts (unless intentional). We had to suffer through that all the time with Ponder. No thanks. We don't see that much from Kirk. We honestly don't see a lot of the overthrows on the short stuff from him either. He was just misfiring in KC.

Diggs and Thielen are so good on those contested catches that I wish he would give them more of a chance to make the play. Put some air under it, even if it is underthrown a bit. That was one of the keys to Keenum having a career year in MIN. He didn't throw a great deep ball, but he was willing to throw it to those guys when he had them one on one, and more often than not they came down the with the ball and made a big play. Kirk's frequent overthrows on those plays are highly irritating. I don't particularly care if he hits the guy in stride and the play goes for a perfect touchdown if that only happens 1 out of 10 times anyway. I'd much rather we get the big chunk 30, 40plus yard play 6 or 7 times out of ten. Those drives will generally lead to points anyway.