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Re: More New England Cheating?
Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:08 am
by Mothman
I highly recommend this article:
Your Guide To Deflate-gate/Ballghazi-Related Statistical Analyses
The gist of the posts, written by a tout named Warren Sharp, is that the Patriots are a phenomenal statistical outlier when it comes to hanging onto the ball. Sharp presents a chart showing how far New England has stood above its peers in “offensive plays per (lost) fumble” over the last five seasons, giving the odds against such a performance happening by chance as 1 in about 16,234. He also notes that, over the same span of years, the Patriots have fumbled (whether the ball was lost or recovered) far less often than their peers, after excluding dome-based teams from the comparison. And finally, he notes that individual members of the Patriots appear to fumble far less with New England than when they play for other franchises.
The data science community responded with a number of rebuttals (I put together a roundup of my favorite ones below). Collectively, these posts did a great job of breaking down the Statistics 101 problems with Sharp’s original analyses. But even if Sharp had been less sloppy, it would have been right to take issue with the larger implication of his work — that any major outlier, if shown to be statistically significant, should be seen as evidence of rule-breaking.
Barry Bonds and Lance Armstrong were outliers. But so is Lionel Messi. And Phil Jackson. And the San Antonio Spurs. It would be irresponsible — and depressing — to assume every incredible performance equals cheating. Celebrating outliers is one of the best parts about being a sports fan.
There's more at the link, including links to rebuttals of Sharp's fumble analysis (which it sounds like he himself fumbled).
Re: More New England Cheating?
Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:33 pm
by Pseudo Everything
Ted Wells is now in the 12th week of his investigation of Deflategate. Amazing that it's taking this long. First inclination is to think that there's something to it given the amount of time it's taking. The Falcons' Noisegate and the Browns' Textgate have long since been concluded but the Patriots' Deflatgate continues on. Doesn't seem likely that they will have this resolved before the draft that is only two weeks out.
Re: More New England Cheating?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:17 pm
by Jordysghost
The Patriots are a lie. A dirty, ugly blemish on the face of professional sports.
2 separate cheating scandals, no SB rings without said cheating scandals, simply pathetic that they are hailed as some great dynasty when they prove time and time again the only way they can win SBs is with cheating scandals.
Bill Bellichek isn't even close to guys like Lombardi, Halas, Grant, Walsh, Shula, Noll, Levy, Madden etc. Etc. None of those guys were pathetic losers who could only win with cheating scandals.
Re: More New England Cheating?
Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:23 am
by DK Sweets
Jordysghost wrote:The Patriots are a lie. A dirty, ugly blemish on the face of professional sports.
2 separate cheating scandals, no SB rings without said cheating scandals, simply pathetic that they are hailed as some great dynasty when they prove time and time again the only way they can win SBs is with cheating scandals.
Bill Bellichek isn't even close to guys like Lombardi, Halas, Grant, Walsh, Shula, Noll, Levy, Madden etc. Etc. None of those guys were pathetic losers who could only win with cheating scandals.
You don't have to mince your words...tell us how you really feel.
Re: More New England Cheating?
Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:12 pm
by Jordysghost
DK Sweets wrote:You don't have to mince your words...tell us how you really feel.
Oh man, dont even get me started.
Its just amazing how the the NFL preaches all this bullcrap and then when a team gets caught cheating during literally every Championship winning moment in their history, its ok. No big deal.
I would be so beyond embarrassed and ashamed if I were a Patriots fan, just pathetic.