Vikings Message Board.Com

indianation65 wrote:Laughs abounding...nobody knows how any team will fare before a season starts. It's takes 4-6 games to really know anything. Who would have imagined Houston's last two seasons?

...wisdom

And in that sense, maybe the thing to do is go for the over. Not with your life savings, of course, but a team that seems to alternate between very good and very bad might not be a bad bet for "mediocre or better".

The caveat is that the team could go 0-16 next year. I frankly think the odds are better for the Pack to go 0-16 - just one injury to Rodgers and they struggle to beat even bad teams (us?) at home. But you look at last year's vikings with 5.5 wins and add just Cassel and I think we are at 7 wins. Just the Josh Freeman game gets us to 6.5 wins alone.

Where we are worse:
Lost Allen and Williams - both midling quality starters now that they are at the end of their career.
Peterson another year older.
Greenway another year older.
Robison another year older (wrong side of 30 now).
Jennings another year older.

Where we are better:
Nearly every other starter is in their mid-20's, and therefore another year better (O-Line, Rudolph, Patterson, Wright + Smith, Rhodes, Griffen, Floyd, and others on defense).
The aforementioned Cassel (ignoring Bridgewater, as he's unknowable at this time).
Linval Joseph is a huge upgrade.
Norv Turner is a huge upgrade over any other OC we could have.
Zimmer is a huge upgrade over any other defensive coach we could have.

What we can't predict at all:
Continue to lose so many close games (the games they won in 2012 - tends to average out)?
Lose Peterson for part of the season again?
Lose all four staring DB's for part of the season again?
Lose Rudolph for half the season again?
Keep those guys healthy, and lose different ones?

With no injuries, I think we're looking at the edge of the playoffs (9 or 10 wins). But that's not going to happen (like, except when Green Bay won their last Superbowl, when they lost no player to injury on defense the whole year).

indianation65 wrote:Exactly, it's all guess work, and in today's NFL, any team can happen either way!

This year (like any) there will be a couple of teams that exceed expectations, a couple who will fall well short. But for the most part, the odds makers will be surprisingly accurate. It's what they do, and they've been doing it for a very long time.

Only Jacksonville and Oakland are lower, with a over/under of 5. For the Vikings, the under is the underdog right now at +120. If you took the over, you would have to bet $150 to win $100 right now. If you want to bet the Vikings make the playoffs, they'll give you 4:1 odds. I thought it would be a little higher to be honest.

I think we were an 8 win team the last two season - we averaged high in 2012 and averaged low in 2013. I think this team is better than either one of those squads, and I think (as most people do) that our coaching staff is better. I just have an incredibly tough time believing that we can be worse than 6 games....maybe a push, if some things go wrong. But worse? I won't believe that until I see it. And I won't see that, because if we lose 10+ games again, I will have offed myself by Christmas.

Only way we lose more than 10 games is if Spielman, or Wilfs, meddle with the QB situation again and force the coaching staff to start Bridgewater too soon. Vikings are an 8+ win team with Cassel.

John_Viveiros wrote: And in that sense, maybe the thing to do is go for the over. Not with your life savings, of course, but a team that seems to alternate between very good and very bad might not be a bad bet for "mediocre or better".

With no injuries, I think we're looking at the edge of the playoffs (9 or 10 wins). But that's not going to happen (like, except when Green Bay won their last Superbowl, when they lost no player to injury on defense the whole year).

Um, no, go take a look at GBs injury report that year, they lost 16 players to IR alone, and that us IR.

Poor Pack

DKSweets wrote:I think we were an 8 win team the last two season - we averaged high in 2012 and averaged low in 2013. I think this team is better than either one of those squads, and I think (as most people do) that our coaching staff is better. I just have an incredibly tough time believing that we can be worse than 6 games....maybe a push, if some things go wrong. But worse? I won't believe that until I see it. And I won't see that, because if we lose 10+ games again, I will have offed myself by Christmas.

LOL! I honestly don't have a hard time imagining them finishing anywhere between 4 wins and 10. The reason I can see them struggling again is because there's not a game on the schedule I see as a sure win for the Vikes. I see some likely wins but there's not one team I'm 100% confident they can beat. That may change once I get to see them play a few meaningful games but for now, all the talk about how much better the coaches make them is just talk to me and I'm not sure if most of the personnel changes will result in actual improvement or not. After 3 lousy seasons in 4 years and the disappointment of last season, they need to prove it to me, new coaches or not.

DKSweets wrote:I think we were an 8 win team the last two season - we averaged high in 2012 and averaged low in 2013. I think this team is better than either one of those squads, and I think (as most people do) that our coaching staff is better. I just have an incredibly tough time believing that we can be worse than 6 games....maybe a push, if some things go wrong. But worse? I won't believe that until I see it. And I won't see that, because if we lose 10+ games again, I will have offed myself by Christmas.

I can get on board with that assessment and I think you're spot on. Good post!

Mothman wrote: LOL! I honestly don't have a hard time imagining them finishing anywhere between 4 wins and 10. The reason I can see them struggling again is because there's not a game on the schedule I see as a sure win for the Vikes. I see some likely wins but there's not one team I'm 100% confident they can beat. That may change once I get to see them play a few meaningful games but for now, all the talk about how much better the coaches make them is just talk to me and I'm not sure if most of the personnel changes will result in actual improvement or not. After 3 lousy seasons in 4 years and the disappointment of last season, they need to prove it to me, new coaches or not.

Ten wins is a little out there. Maybe 8 if they have a very good year.

> I see some likely wins but there's not one team I'm 100% confident they can beat.

Yeah, that's the big leap. Every single team in that schedule is capable of beating them, especially taking into consideration where the games are being played. There's not one single sure win. I have a very hard time going all the way from the possibility of not winning more than a couple games, to being able to come away with ten wins.

Eli wrote:Ten wins is a little out there. Maybe 8 if they have a very good year.

They're just one season removed from 10 wins so I don't think it's unattainable. If they had held onto all the late 4th quarter leads they had last year, they could have been around the same mark.

Yeah, that's the big leap. Every single team in that schedule is capable of beating them, especially taking into consideration where the games are being played. There's not one single sure win. I have a very hard time going all the way from the possibility of not winning more than a couple games, to being able to come away with ten wins.

I see 10 wins as the "if everything goes right'" total. I think 6 or 7 is wins is where they'll probably end up.

Over 6 is a LOCK

Vikings 11-5
win NFC North
Win NFC
Win Super Bowl
AD 2500+ yards this year (conservative estimate)

I am going to put $200 on the over if it is really 6

SKOL

With Cassell? I think no question we break 6 wins. Dinking around like we probably will end up doing at the QB position? Muuuuch harder question.

Do not feed the troll...

frosted21 wrote:Poor Pack

I couldn't give a #### less about the Pack, but saying they didn't lose anyone on defense the entire season is ludicrous, and could not be any less wrong.