Pondering Ponder vs. Ponder

[jackal]

Aikman averaged 155 yards a game and completed 55 percent of his passes his first year

Arron Rodgers averaged 109 yards a game (2 games played)(2007)70 percent.. He had a lot better wide outs

Drew Brees in pass happy Chargers offense 56 percent completion 221 yards a game (2001) 205 yards a game in second year 60.8 percent completion 2002

John Elway 151 yards a game 47.5 percent completion (first year)



Christan Ponder 65.2 percent completion rate 202.7 yards per game this year

You need some perspective about ponder people. Ponder reminds me a lot of Steve Young in his early years.

[Crax]

I don't know about that. There are some guys (providing they declare) that are extremely talented. Guys like Keenan Allen, Justin Hunter, DeAndre Hopkins, Terrance Williams and Robert Woods are putting up great numbers and I've seen all projected in various mocks as first-round picks. There might not be a Calvin Johnson that'll go in the top-5, but I think that works to our benefit if the Vikings are targeting a WR with their first selection. They'll should be able to get one of the top three. If they hit, it could pay big dividends.

Too bad Marqise Lee won't be in this draft. He's the best one out there IMO. He wouldn't be there for the Vikings though unless they moved up some how. If the vikings don't solve their WR issues, they should do what they can to get him in the 2014 draft, even it takes multiple picks to do so.

[VikingLord]

I think Ponder is clearly an improved QB this year and clearly a QB with a lot more improving to do.

I'm not sure I'd go so far as to say he's *clearly* improved given his recent stretch of games where he clocked under 100 yards passing for entire games. We could be looking at a bottom here in terms of his development, or the game against the Lions might just be a blip that will be erased by a Bears defense that has a chance to study the tape and adapt.

One thing is for sure - the Bears are going to be aggressive on defense, not only rushing Ponder, but also jumping routes and putting pressure on the passing lanes. Their LBs are some of the best cover LB's in the league IMHO, which makes tight windows tighter and moments of clear separation even more momentary. For Ponder, that game is going to be a real test of his ability to read the defense and make the tough throws under pressure in that 10-15 yard area beyond the LOS.

[Mothman]

If you look at his entire season thus far, I think he's clearly improved over last year. There have been a few serious lows but overall, I see improvement and as dead_poet said, the numbers reflect that.

It's going to test a lot of players on offense. Chicago can rush the QB. Passing windows will be tight and although Ponder has to make the throws, the receivers need to run crisp routes and make sure they make a play on the ball and hold onto it if they make the catch. There's been a lot of talk about Rudolph's ability to catch the ball in coverage (he did it on Sunday) and the need for Ponder to take risks and throw the ball to players with very little separation. That's legitimate but the receiving targets have to come through or those risky throws will be interceptions. The timing has to be there. The discipline has to be there and success or failure will include, but also go way beyond QB performance. Against a defense like that, the whole unit has to play well or we'll be right back to ugly offense.

The Vikes running game will be extremely important against Chicago. The Bears are good at stopping the run so the Vikes will need to stick with it. Running the ball effectively is the best way to make that defense less aggressive against the pass.

[Eli]

Second season Ponder vs. rookie season Ponder? He'd damn well better have improved given how bad he looked as a rookie. Overall, I'd say he has improved, but his "off" games have been sobering. To be that inconsistent you must have some mental issues. You can fix mechanics to some extent, and with time he'll get better at reading defenses. But you can never really fix a guy with head problems.

[losperros]

I think it's absolutely vital the Vikings address their needs for a playmaking outside receiver to stretch the field (as of now, I don't see much benefit in Simpson, Jenkins OR Aromashadu returning given their "talents." At least, not in a starting capacity). Provided they acquire one via free agency or the draft, this could have major ramifications, should the coaching staff deem Ponder able to take his game to another level with the acquisition. Just as great QBs make average WRs look good, this is obviously true in reverse. It's a symbiotic relationship. I mean, it's not a fluke why Freeman is putting up career numbers with Vincent Jackson in town. If they go the draft route, they cannot afford to pull another Williamson. They need to hit, preferably the jackpot.

I agree wholeheartedly. Actually, I think the Vikings need two more WRs, given the mostly unimpressive group they have now.

I believe adding WR talent will also open the playbook up, therefore making the offense both more unpredictable and balanced.

[mondry]

I agree wholeheartedly. Actually, I think the Vikings need two more WRs, given the mostly unimpressive group they have now.

I believe adding WR talent will also open the playbook up, therefore making the offense both more unpredictable and balanced.

I think they'd be fine with a Healthy simpson, harvin, Wright, Rudolph, and the Stud draft pick. Would rather see them either upgrade at LG or RT for some more consistent o-line play. That can also help open up the playbook, especially for the longer stuff if we can protect well enough to execute it.

[Demi]

Second season Ponder vs. rookie season Ponder? He'd damn well better have improved given how bad he looked as a rookie. Overall, I'd say he has improved, but his "off" games have been sobering. To be that inconsistent you must have some mental issues. You can fix mechanics to some extent, and with time he'll get better at reading defenses. But you can never really fix a guy with head problems.

Along with what was on paper an easier schedule (and at least earlier this year was)

Harvin taking a 1 yard pass 25 yards helps a QBs numbers as well.

Worst part is, even after a full season we might not know what we have. (Well, some of us already know ). Last week there was a consensus he didn't have it, now a home game against the Lions and he looks significantly better so there's a glimmer of hope. And ends the season with some tough games. Even if he struggles was it him, or the opposing defenses?

I have a feeling when this season is said and done, he'll have done just enough they'll give him the job to start next year as well. But with a much shorter leash, and possibly a veteran backup of some sort. (Or at the very least Webb breathing down his neck, this time with a lame duck coaching staff who's already seen over a full season of him)

[Purple bruise]

I have been out of country (no internet) come back to the same old negativity from the same old sources
Regarding Ponder, this kid has played in just over a season's worth of games. Has he had his ups and down, most assuredly. Does his line afford him much protection? Hell no. His pocket collapses and seldom does he have any opprotunity to set up in the pocket , make his reads and deliver any type or decent pass. The coaching staff has realized this from the beginning of the season and instituted a quick pass system to Harvin and his tight ends. Not from design but from necessity. Look at all the film and tell me what you see when Ponder (on such seldom occassions) has the time to look down the field, make his reads and find an open receiver. He generally has made a good throws when the line holds up. These receivers of the Vikings do not have any seperation speed or skills. They double up on Harvin negating the quick short patterns that worked earlier. Ponder is under constant pressure and usually has less than three seconds to get rid of the ball. How would any quarterback suceed with this line and such crappy receivers.
Lets look at the 2 time Super Bowl winning MVP Eli Manning and study his career of ups and downs and having a slower start to his career than Ponder. In the last four weeks of this season Manning's quarterback ratings have plummeted to this last week against the Steelers where his QB rating was 41.1 %. That is playing with twice as good of O-line and ten times better receivers. Go figure??
I still have losts of faith in Ponder but will assure that if the O-line does not markedly improve in pass protection and the WR's are not drastically upgraded then he or anyone else playing QB for this team will struggle as much or more than Ponder is doing.

[Arma]

Here's something a friend of mine posted on a different forum. I'm sick of the Harvin screen pass BS with no evidence. It's false.

Christian Ponder 2012 season so far Stats with Harvin screen passes excluded in BOLD

Week 1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Attempts: 27 24
Completions: 20 17
Yards&TD/INT: 270 0/0 223 0/0
Completion %: 74% 70.8
Quarterback rating: 105.5 99.8
Yards-per-Attempt: 10 9.29

Screen passes to Harvin
3 attempts, 3 completions for 47 yards (20, 11 and 16 yards)

Week 2 at Indianapolis Colts

Attempts: 35 31
Completions: 27 23
Yards&TD/INT: 245, 2 TD 204, 2 TD
Completion %: 77.1 74.1%
Quarterback rating: 114.5 112.8
Yards-per-Attempt: 7 6.5

Screen passes to Harvin
4 attempts, 4 completions for 41 yards (11, 5, 5 and 20 yards)

Week 3 vs San Francisco 49ers

Attempts: 35 30
Completions: 21 16
Yards&TD/INT: 198, 2 TD 165, 2 TD
Completion %: 60 53.3%
Quarterback rating: 94.7 91.6
Yards-per-Attempt: 5.65 5.5

Screen passes to Harvin
5 attempts, 5 completions for 33 yards (12, 2, 2, 7, 10 yards)

Week 4 at Detroit Lions

Attempts: 26 23
Completions: 16 13
Yards&TD/INT: 111 106
Completion %: 61.5% 56.5%
Quarterback rating: 71.1 68.3
Yards-per-Attempt: 4.3 4.6

Screen passes to Harvin
3 attempts, 2 completions for 5 yards (7 yards, -2 yards, incomplete pass)

Week 5 vs Tennessee Titans

Attempts: 35 31
Completions: 25 21
Yards&TD/INT: 258, 2 TD 2 INT 221, 1 TD 2 INT
Completion %: 71.4 67.7
Quarterback rating: 87.6 72.1
Yards-per-Attempt: 7.4 7.2

Screen passes to Harvin
4 attempts, 4 completions for 35 yards 1 TD (14, 2, 9, 10 yards +TD)

Week 6 at Washington Redskins

Attempts: 52 47
Completions: 35 30
Yards&TD/INT: 352, 2 TD, 2 INT 308, 2 TD 2 INT
Completion %: 67.3% 63.8
Quarterback rating: 83.2 79.0
Yards-per-Attempt: 6.8 6.5

Screen passes to Harvin
5 attempts, 5 completions for 44 yards (15, 9, 6, 5, 9 yards)

Week 7 vs Arizona Cardinals

Attempts: 17 15
Completions: 8 6
Yards&TD/INT: 58, 1 TD 2 INT 41, 2 INTs
Completion %: 47.0 40
Quarterback rating: 35.5 8.3
Yards-per-Attempt: 3.4 2.7

Screen passes to Harvin
2 attempts, 2 completions for 17 yards and 1 TD (14, 3 yards + TD)

Week 8 vs Tampa Bay

Attempts: 35 28
Completions: 19 15
Yards&TD/INT: 251, 1 TD 1 INT 183, 1 TD 1 INT
Completion %: 54.3 53.5
Quarterback rating: 74.8 70.9
Yards-per-Attempt: 7.2 6.5

Screen passes to Harvin
8 attempts, 5 completions for 68 yards (incomplete, incomplete, 32, 13, incomplete, 9, 11, 3 yards)

Week 9 at Seattle Seahawks

Attempts: 22 20
Completions: 11 10
Yards&TD/INT: 63, 1 INT 54, 1 INT
Completion %: 50 50
Quarterback rating: 37.3 35.4
Yards-per-Attempt: 2.9 2.7

Screen passes to Harvin
2 attempts, 1 completion for 9 yards (incomplete, 9 yards)

[Demi]

I'm sick of the Harvin screen pass BS with no evidence. It's false.

It's not just screen passes. Harvin has 62 receptions. The average catch by Harvin is 2 yards...with 8.9 yards coming after the catch on average of his 10.9 yard per catch average.

Ponder's yards per attempt is 6.4. Only other starting QBs as bad are Sanchez, Gabbert, Kolb, Skelton, Weeden, Hasselbeck.

1237 of his yards have come after the catch, which means his average completion is 3.8 yards downfield...

Not that we should expect anything else out of a noodle arm.

[S197]

I honestly think they need to add a QB next year regardless of how Ponder performs. They need to find a prospect with legitimate NFL potential that they can begin developing behind him, unless they truly feel Joe Webb is that guy and has a potential future as a starting QB in the NFL. I believe one of the backup QBs should always be a player with that kind of "future starter" potential.

I wholeheartedly agree. I think MBT has potential but he's too much of a long shot to satisfy that criteria. And it doesn't have to be a 1st or 2nd rounder for someone to show potential. Russell Wilson was taken in the 3rd round, as an example. The Vikings can still fill positions of need early and still draft a QB with potential.

[Arma]

It's not just screen passes. Harvin has 62 receptions. The average catch by Harvin is 2 yards...with 8.9 yards coming after the catch on average of his 10.9 yard per catch average.

Ponder's yards per attempt is 6.4. Only other starting QBs as bad are Sanchez, Gabbert, Kolb, Skelton, Weeden, Hasselbeck.

1237 of his yards have come after the catch, which means his average completion is 3.8 yards downfield...

Not that we should expect anything else out of a noodle arm.

So out of 206 completions Harvin has 30% of the grabs and 33% of his yards. So I guess he shouldn't throw to our best and seemily only receiving threat?? Funny how last year this was not even part of the discussion...yet we targeted Harvin more under Ponder (39% of the grabs and 39% of his yards). So where is his other yards coming from this year? Because obviously he sucks so much that he can only throw to Harvin and his only reason he has high stats is because of Harvin. Give me a break.

News flash we run a WCO which is all about quick passes and getting the ball to playmakers. Add in no downfield threat...well there you go. Unless you've seen Ponder just wiff on 15+ (which I havent...actually I've seen a lot of velocity it's more of an accuracy and footwork issues)...then I don't see why you call him noodle arm.

Also here's a cool website: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php

It judges yards thrown in the air. Ponder has about half of his yards from YAC.

[Demi]

Unless you've seen Ponder just wiff on 15+

Not very often, because he rarely throws 15+. And when he does it's usually that silly rainbow he loves throwing.

It judges yards thrown in the air. Ponder has about half of his yards from YAC.

Exactly what I was trying to say with my earlier post. He has the third lowest yards per attempt through the air. 34 of 36. And THE highest percentage of his yards are coming after the receiver has caught the ball. A case where the qb numbers are even more misleading than they are bad.

Blame the receivers and oline all you want, the guy has happy feet, questionable arm strength, and almost zero confidence. It isn't just Musgrave either. He checks down way too fast, when he decides to even move to the check down.

There are plenty of free agents and upcoming rookies that can throw a 2 yard pass. They can also throw a 20 yarder more accurately, quicker, and with more confidence. Just look at Russell Wilson.

[Arma]

But we really don't have receivers...ah whatever unless you got tape proof that he can consistently find open receivers 15+ I really don't care to discuss this. Because as of now we both are being biased.