Harvin: Fundamentals Killing Us

[Mothman]

I think you have a valid point, but I also think there is more to it. An example comes to mind where Simpson broke off his route due to the type of coverage he was getting to the DB. Ponder had a quick release and the only guy there was the DB. Part of chemisty is trusting a WR to run the correct route, but also knowing where the WR is going to be given what the defense shows. (this isn't new in the NFL, Chris Carter used to do this stuff and talked about it. The QB needs to be on the same page.)

That's true but on the play you're talking about, the DB was showing press coverage pre-snap so Ponder made the right pre-snap read. By the time the DB bailed to play the deep ball, the pass was in the air. Simpson hadn't even cut his route short yet. Now, it's possible that Ponder threw it too soon but it's also possible that it was a timed route and he was supposed to throw it quickly. There's no way to know. As I said before, all we can conclude from that play is that the QB and receiver weren't on the same page.

However, you're right that there's a lot to it and one of the many variables is that defenses are going to make good plays. On the play we're talking about, the defense did a great job of disguising their coverage OR the DB did a great job of reading the receiver post-snap and adjusted his technique.

IMO it is a massive amount of info to take in and get the ball out in under 5 seconds to the right guy with accuracy, zip, touch etc. All the while on the move. Ponder is a smart, thinking guy. My guess is he is getting more comfortable with the process, but still not 100% of the way there. (like all 2nd year QB) Part of it is also confidence. He is probably over thinking his throws right now because he is getting rattled from free running blitzers, out of position WR, the pressure of playing QB, etc.

I agree 100% and I should add that I don't doubt Ponder makes some mistakes in his reads and has plenty to learn about reading a defense and making adjustments. I just don't think his issues are as extreme as they're sometimes made out to be...

IMO the Tampa game was probably ideal for this to happen. Ponder has a 10 day rest to regroup and "smell the roses". Then two games to make some adjustmetns followed by the bye week. It wouldn't surprise me to see him get a whole lot better in that time frame. We'll see.

Hopefully, the time spent working on the blitz will be beneficial to Ponder and the rest of the offense. Maybe they will introduce some more audibles and hot reads as a response to what TB did.

[mansquatch]

So I thought about this for a second and whipped together a quick arm chair analysis on a hunch. The top 10 QB in 2011 based on passing yards (I know, not the best stat) had an average experience level of 8.1 seasons. That includes bench time for guys like Rogers. The anomalies on the list are Ryan at 5, Stafford at 4, and Newton at 2. Rogers is at 8 and everyone else is 9+. Notice there is just one guy on the list at 2 seasons and he is falling off hard and causing his team to lose right now. (Sound familiar anyone?) So one conclusion that can follow is that in most cases it takes time to reach the promised land for a QB.

Now, a lot of these guys are household names, such as Brady, Brees, etc. Someone could reach a different conclusion by saying the reason this list is full of veterans is because these guys have been good for YEARS and you would have a lower age if you ran in say 2009. (Maybe, you’d have Fav-Ruh on that list) In some cases that is probably right. However, take Brees, he was good prior to 2009, but wasn’t in the elite conversation until then. So even at that point he was 5-6 seasons in. Rogers rode the bench for 4 seasons learning and then still struggled for a couple of seasons before really blowing up in 2010. Eli Manning struggled his first few years before really taking off in 2007, ie season 4. Ryan is another example. He had been pretty good his first few years, but dismal in the playoffs. This resulted in the Falcons MTG the farm to get him Julio Jones and now in Ryan’s 4th season he looks to be entering that elite category.

Look it is far from a perfect analysis. Ultimately I think the question we all have is this: Does Ponder have what it takes to make the above list? I don’t know. However, I do think my little statistic shows that expecting pro bowl numbers out of the guy in season 2 is probably on the irrational side of what is normal in the NFL.

He played what, 10 games in 2011 and he is at week game 9 of 2012, so he is 19 games into his career. I say give it time. Even if you end up being right, you do not really KNOW he is bust, you just know he has had some bad numbers and bad decisions in the past 4 games.

[dead_poet]

So I thought about this for a second and whipped together a quick arm chair analysis on a hunch. The top 10 QB in 2011 based on passing yards (I know, not the best stat) had an average experience level of 8.1 seasons. That includes bench time for guys like Rogers. The anomalies on the list are Ryan at 5, Stafford at 4, and Newton at 2. Rogers is at 8 and everyone else is 9+. Notice there is just one guy on the list at 2 seasons and he is falling off hard and causing his team to lose right now. (Sound familiar anyone?) So one conclusion that can follow is that in most cases it takes time to reach the promised land for a QB.

Now, a lot of these guys are household names, such as Brady, Brees, etc. Someone could reach a different conclusion by saying the reason this list is full of veterans is because these guys have been good for YEARS and you would have a lower age if you ran in say 2009. (Maybe, you’d have Fav-Ruh on that list) In some cases that is probably right. However, take Brees, he was good prior to 2009, but wasn’t in the elite conversation until then. So even at that point he was 5-6 seasons in. Rogers rode the bench for 4 seasons learning and then still struggled for a couple of seasons before really blowing up in 2010. Eli Manning struggled his first few years before really taking off in 2007, ie season 4. Ryan is another example. He had been pretty good his first few years, but dismal in the playoffs. This resulted in the Falcons MTG the farm to get him Julio Jones and now in Ryan’s 4th season he looks to be entering that elite category.

Look it is far from a perfect analysis. Ultimately I think the question we all have is this: Does Ponder have what it takes to make the above list? I don’t know. However, I do think my little statistic shows that expecting pro bowl numbers out of the guy in season 2 is probably on the irrational side of what is normal in the NFL.

He played what, 10 games in 2011 and he is at week game 9 of 2012, so he is 19 games into his career. I say give it time. Even if you end up being right, you do not really KNOW he is bust, you just know he has had some bad numbers and bad decisions in the past 4 games.

That's a good point. Thanks for doing this. I think there are those that expect Pro-Bowl numbers, but could live with considerably less if Ponder showed an Alex Smith (on Monday night) type of command that leads drives, scores points and avoids turnovers. You know, the "Good" early-season Ponder.

Patience is always necessary for young starting quarterbacks but it seems in the last 5 years or so fans and ownership are demanding their high-round signal callers start producing/winning earlier than ever before. Guys like Cam Newton, RGIII and even Ryan and Flacco have raised the bar. It's unfortunate because, like you point out, it often takes more than two seasons. Continuity with coaching staff/coordinators is just as important as having a good supporting cast. Hopefully Ponder continues to show improvement (which is all many of us are looking for) and things really "click" with him as he gets more starts under his belt and perhaps another lethal wideout next season. Otherwise in a year or two we'll be buying a new lotto ticket just like so many other teams.

[Mothman]

Thanks for the stats, Mansquatch (I still think that's one of the best internet handles of all time). Patience is definitely required. Whether it will be rewarded is a different story...

That's a good point. Thanks for doing this. I think there are those that expect Pro-Bowl numbers, but could live with considerably less if Ponder showed an Alex Smith (on Monday night) type of command that leads drives, scores points and avoids turnovers. You know, the "Good" early-season Ponder.

He still gives us glimpses of that type of command. He's just struggling with consistency and honestly, he struggled in that department at times earlier this season too. I'm obviously convinced that the performance of the players around him is having a pretty big impact on his game but that's not the whole story. He's young and he's going to experience the growing pains every NFL QB has to suffer. We just have to hope he comes out on the other side as the QB the Vikes need him to be.

Patience is always necessary for young starting quarterbacks but it seems in the last 5 years or so fans and ownership are demanding their high-round signal callers start producing/winning earlier than ever before.

That's true and one of the ironies of Ponder's situation is that the team IS winning this season. They're in contention to win their division. In fact, that's probably one of the reasons there's so much heat on him right now from frustrated fans. Hopes were raised and nobody wants them dashed.

Guys like Cam Newton, RGIII and even Ryan and Flacco have raised the bar. It's unfortunate because, like you point out, it often takes more than two seasons. Continuity with coaching staff/coordinators is just as important as having a good supporting cast. Hopefully Ponder continues to show improvement (which is all many of us are looking for) and things really "click" with him as he gets more starts under his belt and perhaps another lethal wideout next season. Otherwise in a year or two we'll be buying a new lotto ticket just like so many other teams.

I think part of the problem here is that Ponder doesn't have "elite prospect" credentials so not only are people impatient, they're not going to give him the benefit of the doubt because he has fantastic arm strength and running ability or the college resumé of someone like Andrew Luck. That's understandable and it means he'll have to work that much harder to convince the doubters and prove himself a worthy NFL starter.

It's not going to get any easier for him against an aggressive, attacking defense in Seattle.

[dead_poet]

He still gives us glimpses of that type of command. He's just struggling with consistency and honestly, he struggled in that department at times earlier this season too.

Well, he's been consistently inconsistent as of late. So he's got that going for him.

But that's true. The problem is the team isn't sustaining drives and are going three-and-out FAR too frequently as of late (and at least it SEEMS far more than during the first four or five games). In addition, his turnovers have increased quite a bit. Many people could say that's now catching up to him (he had more than one ball dropped by defenders earlier in the season that probably should've been intercepted, despite that this also happens to all other QBs). Fair or not, a lot of people are pointing the offensive struggles resting with Ponder, whether or not those issues are fundamentally his issue or not. It's hard to argue when people say it all boils down to the "leader" and most valuable person on an NFL offense to be able to overcome the same issues facing many teams (some pressure, receivers unable to separate, etc.). The unit as a whole needs to improve, but Ponder shoulders some of the blame over the last sub-standard performances.

He's young and he's going to experience the growing pains every NFL QB has to suffer. We just have to hope he comes out on the other side as the QB the Vikes need him to be.

That's the issue right there. Which way does Ponder go from here on out? I'd accept a few stumbles if it means we also see some strides.

That's true and one of the ironies of Ponder's situation is that the team IS winning this season. They're in contention to win their division. In fact, that's probably one of the reasons there's so much heat on him right now from frustrated fans. Hopes were raised and nobody wants them dashed.

They certainly were. Nobody expected us to be this close to winning the division at this point. The more games we lose now, the sharper the pain (and there's always that nagging "worse draft pick" thing that could preclude us from getting that difference-maker we desperately need). Curse hope, cautious optimism and inadvertent raised expectations!

I think part of the problem here is that Ponder doesn't have "elite prospect" credentials so not only are people impatient, they're not going to give him the benefit of the doubt because he has fantastic arm strength and running ability or the college resumé of someone like Andrew Luck. That's understandable and it means he'll have to work that much harder to convince the doubters and prove himself a worthy NFL starter.

Right. Many look to where he was drafted (not where he maybe would've or should've been drafted) and expect him to live up to being selected #12 overall. There are certain expectations that come with a quarterback chosen that high, despite not possessing elite tools. It's easy to say that, right now, he's not living up to those expectations.

It's not going to get any easier for him against an aggressive, attacking defense in Seattle.

Or the rest of the season. In a way, we now get to see who Ponder really is. *gulp*

[losperros]

He still gives us glimpses of that type of command. He's just struggling with consistency and honestly, he struggled in that department at times earlier this season too. I'm obviously convinced that the performance of the players around him is having a pretty big impact on his game but that's not the whole story. He's young and he's going to experience the growing pains every NFL QB has to suffer. We just have to hope he comes out on the other side as the QB the Vikes need him to be.

Well, you can count me as being one of the few that believe the entire passing game (aside from Harvin) is currently a malfunctioning unit. I don't know, maybe I'm seeing things that aren't there, but I sure believe there is more than one weak link in the chain.

Seriously now, I'm honestly not trying to make any excuses for Christian Ponder. It's just that when I rewind the plays and watch them again, I see red flags popping in different places. This is true of the pass protection (and I'm talking about both the OL and RBs, but especially the OL), the receivers being where they're supposed to be (whenever a replay of their route running is revealed), and yes, Ponder too. I also find myself occasionally questioning why a particular passing play was even called.

A pro bowl veteran QB would definitely help things along. But then a pro bowl veteran WR would really help as well, not to mention at least one or two more stud OL players. Or maybe and more realistically at this point, since this is still a rebuilding year, the team is going to have to take a step backward in order to take two steps forward with the passing game.

[smoothoperator]

I would say no QB taken in the first round in the same draft as Ponder has lived up to expectation. Gabbert is abysmal. Locker is terrible. Dalton is okay, although if he did not have green, i think he would be bad. Cam was good last year, but is one of the worst this year. Ponders not great so far, but has shown some signs of hope. Just have to continue to be patient.

[losperros]

Or the rest of the season. In a way, we now get to see who Ponder really is. *gulp*

Oh, I don't think there is any doubt. It's out of the pan and into the fire for Ponder from now on.

I'm also interested in seeing if anyone else can step up. I'm still holding out hope for Jerome Simpson to be more of a force and I'm hoping the coaching staff will find ways to make that happen.

[Mothman]

Well, he's been consistently inconsistent as of late. So he's got that going for him.

But that's true. The problem is the team isn't sustaining drives and are going three-and-out FAR too frequently as of late (and at least it SEEMS far more than during the first four or five games). In addition, his turnovers have increased quite a bit. Many people could say that's now catching up to him (he had more than one ball dropped by defenders earlier in the season that probably should've been intercepted, despite that this also happens to all other QBs). Fair or not, a lot of people are pointing the offensive struggles resting with Ponder, whether or not those issues are fundamentally his issue or not. It's hard to argue when people say it all boils down to the "leader" and most valuable person on an NFL offense to be able to overcome the same issues facing many teams (some pressure, receivers unable to separate, etc.). The unit as a whole needs to improve, but Ponder shoulders some of the blame over the last sub-standard performances.

Absolutely but "some" is the key word. There are quite a few people trying to put the vast majority on him and that's just silly. He does need to be able to overcome some of the issues the team faces but that can only happen with sufficient support and when it fails, he fails. The opposite is also true. One of the things I found interesting when reviewing that Tampa Bay game was how many different ways the Vikings killed drives. They all did their part. Two different players lost fumbles. Blitzers came in unblocked and sacked the QB or disrupted plays so quickly there was nothing the QB could do. Blocks were missed on running plays, passes were dropped, passes were thrown poorly...everyone contributed to stalling drives. It's one thing to say the QB has to overcome pressure or covered receivers and Ponder did that at times but even when he does, someone has to come through for him at the other end of the play too. If he gets away and throws a catchable pass, that pass needs to be caught. If he dumps it to AD with a blocker in front of him, that blocker needs to do his job and spring AD for a first down. Too much of that stuff isn't happening right now.

I apologize. I know I'm preaching to the converted here. It's just that the Vikings don't only have QB problems right now, they have offensive problems. That might begin at the QB position but it doesn't end there and I just feel like that point needs to be emphasized in the face of so many others placing most of the blame on the QB. I believe the coaching staff agrees, which is why I don't think this talk about reinforcing fundamentals is just mundane coaching rhetoric designed to deflect blame.

That's the issue right there. Which way does Ponder go from here on out? I'd accept a few stumbles if it means we also see some strides.

I guess it depends on what we consider strides. I still see some genuine positives that are encouraging but it would definitely be nice to see him have a commanding 4 TD, 0 INT performance and really shred a defense.

They certainly were. Nobody expected us to be this close to winning the division at this point. The more games we lose now, the sharper the pain (and there's always that nagging "worse draft pick" thing that could preclude us from getting that difference-maker we desperately need). Curse hope, cautious optimism and inadvertent raised expectations!

LOL!

Or the rest of the season. In a way, we now get to see who Ponder really is. *gulp*

On the bright side, the remaining 8 (or more) games should really help Spielman determine what his next moves need to be in the offseason.

[PurpleJarl]

On the bright side, the remaining 8 (or more) games should really help Spielman determine what his next moves need to be in the offseason.

This is what I am really excited for, see who is up for the challenge of top tier opponents and who needs to go. Because in the end, if we are gonna win the SB several of the teams we play from here on out are what we will need to go through.

[Eli]

On the bright side, the remaining 8 (or more) games should really help Spielman determine what his next moves need to be in the offseason.

I don't think there are any personnel mysteries or surprises on the team this year. It's just a matter of prioritizing now.

[Mothman]

I don't think there are any personnel mysteries or surprises on the team this year. It's just a matter of prioritizing now.

You're probably right about that.

[VikingLord]

What are you seeing that leads you to believe Ponder isn't able to read the field at all most of the time?

I'm looking at YPA and the number of mid-range attempts (i.e. 10-20 yards in the air) and extrapolating from that. Now I know all the perils of drawing conclusions from that, but unless Musgrave's offense truly doesn't provide mid-range options, I have to believe there are more opportunities in that range than Ponder has taken advantage of. It's possible he's not pulling the trigger on those not because he doesn't see them, but because he lacks the confidence to attempt them, in which case I'd be wrong about his ability to read the field, but all other things being equal, I'm not seeing a QB that is willing to spend much time if at all scanning options in that part of the field. Most of Ponder's "deep" throws are what I would call gopher-balls. They're chuck-and-ducks like the one he attempted to Simpson. Single coverage pre-snap on Simpson, go deep. Simpson had no option route on that play because Ponder didn't bother checking the post-snap movement before he heaved it. Can't play QB like that in the pros.

I also don't believe there are no opportunities available in the mid-range. I know the WR's aren't the greatest, but come on, defenses are still cheating up to stop AD. The whole point of having a strong running game is to create opportunities in the secondary, and the Vikes do have Harvin and Rudolph who should be able to pose matchup problems in that area of the field. So where are the attempts in that range, especially off play-action? I'm afraid Ponder isn't even looking. Just like he's on automatic pilot with Simpson on deep fly routes, he seems to be on automatic pilot when it comes to checking down or scrambling. He's not giving serious consideration to his mid-range options before he bails on them.

This is all my opinion, of course, but Ponder has to hang in there and throw his mid-range guys open. If he has a guy with single coverage past 10 yards whose name is not Simpson and who is not necessarily running a fly route, I'd love to see him attempt to hit that guy. But to make that attempt he has to see it, and to see it he has to have some patience and show recognition, neither of which he is doing right now. Especially knowing that defenses are jumping all over the short stuff and just begging to be exploited over the middle in the 10-20 range, Ponder's GOT to try a few there. When the Bucs and their weak pass defense can shut you down at home, you know your QB had to have missed a lot of opportunities down the field.

[mansquatch]

I do not have the time to do this analysis, so I’ll speak in terms of hypotheticals: How many plays are the Vikings away from a winning level of consistency?

I believe that no NFL team is truly consistent. (None of them are.) The difference is some are really good most of the time and others not. Otherwise, why does a seemingly underdog ever win? IMO, the Vikings have, more than anything else, in the past 4 weeks demonstrated their youth. And nowhere more obvious than the passing game.

However, how much is Ponder? I think that is what Moth has been getting at. If CJ blows an assignment and a LB runs free Ponder gets credit for an incompletion. (more or less.) Ponder might throw the ball away, which IMO is a good play on his part. Or he might do something stupid and toss a pick, which compounds the error. The key here is in all situations, the root cause was Charlie Johnson missing a block. Likewise, what happens if WR run bad routes, etc. etc.? This isn’t to say it is everyone’s fault but Ponder’s. That is an absolute and stupid. It is to say that it can other people’s fault besides Ponder. Also, the corollary also applies if you say it is ALL Ponder’s fault. That is also an absolute and equally stupid. (sorry to the haters, but that is logic, only idiots deal in absolutes.)

So, to my original line of thinking, how many plays away are the Vikings from a winning level of consistency. I know you can’t say “well if we did that and then did this.” That doesn’t win games. But, doing “this and that” on game day is what they need to do to win. That is the bigger question for me: Can the Vikings offense as a whole make up this “consistency gap” and get with the program? They’ve shown the ability to play at that level this season, was that the anomaly or not?

This to me is in part coaching and is why I think the next few weeks are so important to their season and their longer term future. This is where the young guys need to step up and be pros. It is where the coaches need to find a way to motivate these guys to get out of their funk.

[Mothman]

I'm looking at YPA and the number of mid-range attempts (i.e. 10-20 yards in the air) and extrapolating from that. Now I know all the perils of drawing conclusions from that, but unless Musgrave's offense truly doesn't provide mid-range options, I have to believe there are more opportunities in that range than Ponder has taken advantage of. It's possible he's not pulling the trigger on those not because he doesn't see them, but because he lacks the confidence to attempt them, in which case I'd be wrong about his ability to read the field, but all other things being equal, I'm not seeing a QB that is willing to spend much time if at all scanning options in that part of the field. Most of Ponder's "deep" throws are what I would call gopher-balls. They're chuck-and-ducks like the one he attempted to Simpson. Single coverage pre-snap on Simpson, go deep. Simpson had no option route on that play because Ponder didn't bother checking the post-snap movement before he heaved it. Can't play QB like that in the pros.

Every QB in the league throws timing routes. QBs don't always stand and wait for a receiver to get open. That's why we hear comments about "throwing to a spot" so often. On that play, Ponder saw single coverage on the outside, clearly a matchup he was looking to get. Simpson broke his route off in single coverage. Ponder expected him to keep going and try to beat that coverage. How many plays per week do you think QBs take a shot and throw to a receiver they trust when he has single coverage on the outside? I'd wager it happens in just about every game. TB made a good play on defense and Simpson and Ponder weren't on the same page that time. It happens.

I'm glad you qualified your conclusion about reading defenses because I don't think YPA or the number of mid-ramge attempts represent very strong evidence to support that conclusion. I see the dots you're connecting but you're talking an awful lot about belief, as in the comment below:

I also don't believe there are no opportunities available in the mid-range.

There are opportunities in the mid-range and Ponder takes some of them. Nobody is suggesting that stuff isn't there at all but trust me, it's not there as often as you believe and clearly, a lot of the Vikes plays are designed with short routes as the primary option.

I know the WR's aren't the greatest, but come on, defenses are still cheating up to stop AD. The whole point of having a strong running game is to create opportunities in the secondary, and the Vikes do have Harvin and Rudolph who should be able to pose matchup problems in that area of the field. So where are the attempts in that range, especially off play-action? I'm afraid Ponder isn't even looking. Just like he's on automatic pilot with Simpson on deep fly routes, he seems to be on automatic pilot when it comes to checking down or scrambling. He's not giving serious consideration to his mid-range options before he bails on them.

I obviously can't tell you what he gives serious consideration to but I can tell you, in the game I just broke down play by play, those mid-range receivers weren't open that often when Ponder went on the move. There are other things to consider too. For example, on one play, Ponder was flushed out of the pocket almost immediately by pressure. I f I recall correctly, he rolled right. He had no choice but to move or go down and he had to move away from the pressure. Harvin was open but he was open on the other side of the field and throwing the ball back across the field in that direction would have been far too risky.

This is all my opinion, of course, but Ponder has to hang in there and throw his mid-range guys open. If he has a guy with single coverage past 10 yards whose name is not Simpson and who is not necessarily running a fly route, I'd love to see him attempt to hit that guy. But to make that attempt he has to see it, and to see it he has to have some patience and show recognition, neither of which he is doing right now. Especially knowing that defenses are jumping all over the short stuff and just begging to be exploited over the middle in the 10-20 range, Ponder's GOT to try a few there. When the Bucs and their weak pass defense can shut you down at home, you know your QB had to have missed a lot of opportunities down the field.

All I can say is he didn't, at least not that I saw. He threw quite a few mid-to-long range passes in that game and connected on several of them but I didn't see him miss many opportunities like that when his receivers were open and he was in position to make the throw. He didn't have many opportunities to "hang in" either. When he had a pocket to stay in, he usually did but on way too many plays (and right from the start of the game), the pressure was putting him on the move and he had nothing to gain by staying home.

I'll tell you what: I'm trying to be as open-minded as possible about this so when time permits, I'll start going back through some of the recent games and I'll look specifically for mid-range routes and for opportunities made and missed. Maybe we can get a more concrete idea of what's going on down the field and what Ponder is seeing or not seeing.