StumpHunter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:58 pm
fiestavike wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 12:29 pm
This is where we are. Let's get the discussion back on track. How can the Vikings win a super bowl this season is the only interesting question.
The numbers tell us that the key to winning it all are a top 8 scoring defense, top 8 scoring offense, top 5 QB, top 8 receivers and a good pass rush.
That is the average SB winning team.
OK. If that's the approach, then I think it's possible for Cousins to be a 'top 5 QB' statistically speaking and maybe we're in contention.
But I'm going to say those stats are pretty random and its just an avg. of teams which have won. It's an average which represents correlation not causation. Having a top 8 offense and a top 5 QB by some statistical measure is good, and is certainly indicates a good outcome, but the goal is to win games, to win plays, to win matchups, not to rise up the statistical charts. That's just
correlation with how games are actually won. It doesn't
cause any success at all. Its a backward form of analysis.
My worry remains the inability of the offense to produce against the leagues better defenses, and against more physical front seven units. Can our offense win those games? those plays? those matchups? The smaller, athletic OL we employ has not faired well against powerful defensive linemen. Kirk has not faired well under resulting pressure, having less time, having to throw into tighter coverages with anticipation, keeping his composure. None of that seems likely to dramatically change
this season.
Defensively, my worry is that the team not be good enough to hold the line and keep the Vikings in the game against those opponents. Of those two, the shutdown defense seems more realistic than the offense raising their level against top competition. The defense has seen most of the offseason additions and our headcoach does have a track record of fielding competent defensive units. I think Zimmer will need to be willing to figure out how to let his defenders play more one gap, downhill football, where everyone knows their role and can really attack in order to have much hope of achieving the kind of defense I think it would take to win it all this year.