Breesus wrote:
No denying that the Vikings are an excellent team - I'd take that defense over everyone else. Vikes are favored and rightfully so.
It's semi-useful to look at things like record against common opponents and such to gauge the relative strength of the two teams when playing each other, but for me it comes down to matchups and venue. I think those will decide the outcome of this game, and I think most favor the Vikings.
The Saints offense is oriented around Drew Brees. Yes, they have a strong running game and a very good RB tandem in Kamara and Ingram. I will also grant that they have a solid offensive line. And, I will grant that Michael Thomas is a solid, if unspectacular, wide receiver. The problem for the Saints is, none of their strengths on offense really exposes a defensive weakness of the Vikings, especially with the Vikings being at home and having the crowd noise factor in their favor. Brees is a fantastic, veteran QB, and yes, I'll concede he's probably capable of winning this game with his arm if he is willing to take some chances and his blockers can keep him vertical and give him a pocket to throw out of. But I think the Vikings will get pressure on Brees. Probably a lot of pressure. I don't see Ingram and Kamara having a huge day running the ball. I don't see them having a huge day as receivers either. The Vikings could always implode defensively, and if they are sloppy or fall for the classic Saints misdirection plays, could give up some big chunks at times, but I don't see them having to sell out to stop any aspect of the Saint offense. They have the personnel to play the Saints straight up, which really will make Brees beat them. As I said, if there is a QB in the playoffs right now who could do that it's probably Brady or Brees, but Brees is going to have his work cut out for him.
The Saints defense, OTOH, doesn't match up nearly as well against the Vikings offense as most Saints fans seem to want to believe. Yes, Case Keenum has no playoff experience, but this is a home game, so both the field and crowd noise will not be a factor for him. He's not Drew Brees in terms of experience, but he's been his equal all year in terms of performance. So barring some massive reversion by Keenum, he poses as much of a threat to the Saint defense as Brees does to the Viking defense. He's mobile, accurate on the run, and has been smart with the ball. The one thing he's fallen off on a bit lately is his deep ball timing, but he can get it downfield when the opportunities present themselves. I think other aspects of the Vikings offense match up well against the Saints defense. The Saints have not been strong defending against TEs. The Vikings have some good pass catching TEs who can create mismatches with the Saints defense in the middle. The Saints have not been stellar defending runs between the tackles. The Vikings have been successful running between the tackles. I'd even say that is a strength of their offense. On the perimeter, Lattimore has had a great season, but he's still a rookie and he will be under constant pressure in this game trying to defend some savvy route runners in Thielen and Diggs. I'd be surprised if the Vikings don't target him several times in this game and make him prove he can handle it.
These are two good teams, and if this game were in New Orleans and the venue factor was in favor of the Saints, I'd be more inclined to think we'd see a game more like the one in 2009 where the Vikings ended up pressured into a lot of errors, but this game isn't in New Orleans and I really don't see a Mike Zimmer team making enough errors to turn the tide in favor of the Saints. The Saints are a dangerous team and a good team and will be a tough out, but the Vikings should be up to the task of getting that out and moving on.
We'll see what happens on Sunday, and may the best team win.