Vikings Message Board.Com

Delaqure wrote:Shaub has had too many good years for Atlanta to bail on him now. Although stranger things have happened. With the teams we are vying with for a top pick I see us at 2 or 3. Tampa is suddenly picking up and Houston or Jacksonville will win one more. I don't recall what Atlanta's schedule is like so can't comment on that. Being in this position is interesting as it causes me Rotate root for teams I may not normally root for.

Delaqure wrote:Shaub has had too many good years for Atlanta to bail on him now. Although stranger things have happened. With the teams we are vying with for a top pick I see us at 2 or 3. Tampa is suddenly picking up and Houston or Jacksonville will win one more. I don't recall what Atlanta's schedule is like so can't comment on that. Being in this position is interesting as it causes me Rotate root for teams I may not normally root for.

mmvikes wrote: Houston and Jacksonville play again in 2 weeks. Someone will win

Jeffbleedspurple wrote: Bridgewater = RG4

Jeffbleedspurple wrote: Which means what?

RG3 sure hasn't been much for Skins despite all the hype coming out of college and the year he was drafted, I see this Bridgewater as the same hype.

mosscarter wrote:demi then who do you want?? i want manziel i don't care anymore this team needs some freaking swagger

Mackey analyzed each draft in the last 15 years -- since the Indianapolis Colts took Peyton Manning with the first pick -- and looked at how many of the first, second and third quarterbacks taken in each one are in Hall of Fame discussion, "serviceable to very good" or no better than a backup, in his estimation. What he found was, it's important to have the pick of the QB litter.

According to Mackey's ratings, 11 of the 15 players to be the first quarterbacks drafted have at least been serviceable to very good, with three (Peyton Manning, Eli Manning and Andrew Luck) on a Hall of Fame trajectory. That number drops to seven of 15 with the second QB overall (with just Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in Hall contention) and three of 15 with the third quarterback (only Ben Roethlisberger is a Hall of Fame candidate here). Essentially, Mackey says, the Vikings have a better chance not waiting around for a quarterback.

The Vikings will almost certainly be in search of a franchise quarterback next spring. There are plenty of flaws with this team, but the lack of high-quality quarterback play is by far the biggest albatross in today's NFL. With Sunday's tie in Green Bay, the Vikings (2-8-1) currently own the No. 4 overall draft pick. Had they lost Sunday's game, the Vikings would sit at No. 2 (factoring in the strength of schedule tie-breaker).

Some might say the difference between selecting 2nd or 4th doesn't matter, because great quarterbacks have been taken in all parts of the draft - top five, late first round, second round, and even Tom Brady in the sixth round.

"It's all a crapshoot," right?

False.

I've gone through every draft in the Peyton Manning era - the era in which quarterback play has reached an entirely new level of importance due mostly to rule changes. I looked at the first four quarterbacks taken in each draft and marked them in one of the following three categories:

# = Hall of Fame discussion
* = Serviceable to very good
Blank = Backup at best

The results of this exercise are clear: Since 1998, the first quarterback off the board has a 73% chance of being at least serviceable. But that percentage drops to 47%, 20% and 7% for the second, third and fourth quarterbacks who come off the board.

Of course, some drafts are more QB-heavy than others, which certainly plays into this exercise. In 2000, for example, Tee Martin was the fourth quarterback off the board, but he wasn't selected until the fifth round. In many other drafts, the third and fourth quarterbacks off the board were still first-rounders.

But the main point is this: If the Vikings wind up with, say, the third quarterback off the board instead of the first or second, their chances of finding a gem go down. Significantly. And none of this even includes the value of a team below the Vikings trading up for, say, a defensive player and offering up additional picks.

It's likely the Jaguars (2-9), Texans (2-9), Buccaneers (3-8), Browns (4-7) and maybe others could all be sniffing around the quarterback bin in next year's draft as well.

Be careful what you root for...

dead_poet wrote:Worth the read.
Mackey: Why each win (and tie) hurts the Vikings chances at a franchise QB

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mack ... 112513?t=2

dead_poet wrote: The results of this exercise are clear: Since 1998, the first quarterback off the board has a 73% chance of being at least serviceable. But that percentage drops to 47%, 20% and 7% for the second, third and fourth quarterbacks who come off the board.