Ponder's QBR

[Mothman]

How frustrating is it when AD runs for 2yds, then 6, and then on 3rd & short there's an incomplete pass? How about when the defense holds Rodgers to incomplete on 1st down, maybe even a sack on 2nd down, and then on 3rd & long - BAM first down (and then some YAC just to rub it in). I think those are the moments that really good QBs can separate themselves, frustrate an opponent, or excite the team and the crowd.

They are and incompletions in those situations can be very frustrating. Of course, those are also the situations where precise route-running, the ability to create separation in a tight window of opportunity, good hands, etc, tend to make a big, big difference. QBs can separate themselves in those crucial moments but that's when receivers separate themselves too. Nothing in football happens in a bubble. All things considered, based on that PFF ranking, Ponder and his receivers actually did pretty well on third and 4th down.

[Mothman]

Wow. Where have you been all of my life? lol There was a *big* stats guy on Vikings.com. All he cared about were stats. Stats stats stats. As a matter of fact, he admitted he only watched a couple Vikings games a year--if that. So, essentially, he based all of his opinions off of stats and highlights. He was HUGE on QBR. Talk about mentally exhausting. lol. It's one thing to watch the games AND pay attention to the stats; it's another to not even bother watching the games, but then pretend to know everything based on just stats. Yeesh. I can't get down with that. I think actually watching the games and forming opinions based on that is a key part.

It's THE key part. Stats are useful tools but they never paint a complete picture and unless you look at a pretty complete set of stats for a game, they don't even come close.

[losperros]

They are and incompletions in those situations can be very frustrating. Of course, those are also the situations where precise route-running, the ability to create separation in a tight window of opportunity, good hands, etc, tend to make a big, big difference. QBs can separate themselves in those crucial moments but that's when receivers separate themselves too. Nothing happens in football happens in a bubble. All things considered, based on that PFF ranking, Ponder and his receivers actually did pretty well on third and 4th down.

Very well said. I don't have a crystal ball and I don't know if Ponder will prove he's the guy next season. But I do know the team's WR corps has to get better than it has been. As I've said before, I don't care if the Vikings get Tom Brady, the team needs receivers that can get separation, actually catch the ball, and make plays. You simply can't have too many playmakers, but the Vikings have revealed that you can have too few of them in the passing game.

[The Breeze]

How frustrating is it when AD runs for 2yds, then 6, and then on 3rd & short there's an incomplete pass? How about when the defense holds Rodgers to incomplete on 1st down, maybe even a sack on 2nd down, and then on 3rd & long - BAM first down (and then some YAC just to rub it in). I think those are the moments that really good QBs can separate themselves, frustrate an opponent, or excite the team and the crowd.

Here's a ranking of 3rd and 4th down QB performance just for fun:


49.07% Peyton Manning
46.45% Matt Ryan
44.83% Tom Brady
43.94% Drew Brees
43.85% Tony Romo
43.75% Matthew Stafford
43.75% Russell Wilson
43.54% Ben Roethlisberger
43.17% Aaron Rodgers
42.86% Andrew Luck
41.13% Michael Vick
39.52% Ryan Fitzpatrick
38.98% Christian Ponder
...

Like some others have already suggested, I would bet Ponder's % would be higher had Percy been healthy all season.

Regardless, unless we are just looking at stats to compare Ponder to Rodgers, which I find amusing, here is that rest of that list:

Matt Schaub 37.50%
Jay Cutler 37.11%
Philip Rivers 37.02%
Eli Manning 36.71%
Cam Newton 36.31%
Robert Griffin 34.75%
Sam Bradford 34.55%
Joe Flacco 34.46%
Carson Palmer 33.73%
Ryan Tannehill 33.53%
Josh Freeman 32.97%
Mark Sanchez 32.32%
Brandon Weeden 32.04%
Jake Locker 31.15%
Andy Dalton 27.54%
Chad Henne 26.50%

in his first full season Ponder was in the top half of the league with very little receiving talent compared to pretty much everyone above and beneath him. What's to say he won't/can't improve? especially with a revamped WR corps. he's had one full season. i really don't see how the bulk of the criticism he gets here is objective. I see him struggle at times and it can be tough to watch him leave the pocket or make a crap throw up for grabs, but I've seen pretty much every QB i've ever watched do those things in their first 3 seasons.

[mondry]

Like some others have already suggested, I would bet Ponder's % would be higher had Percy been healthy all season.

Regardless, unless we are just looking at stats to compare Ponder to Rodgers, which I find amusing, here is that rest of that list:
in his first full season Ponder was in the top half of the league with very little receiving talent compared to pretty much everyone above and beneath him. What's to say he won't/can't improve? especially with a revamped WR corps. he's had one full season. i really don't see how the bulk of the criticism he gets here is objective. I see him struggle at times and it can be tough to watch him leave the pocket or make a crap throw up for grabs, but I've seen pretty much every QB i've ever watched do those things in their first 3 seasons.

heh, just goes to show you can cherry pick stats to show whatever you want. In this case Ponder was better than super bowl mvp Joe Flacco!! The fact that Ponder's at about the middle with no WR's is nice. It's not comforting or concerning but kinda exactly where I'd expect him to fall considering the circumstances of our offense.

[ViciousBritishVike]

I back Ponder all the way but it all boils down to whether you're a glass half full or half empty kind of guy. Admittedly Ponder had few options at the receiver position but then again, with an astute running game, he wasn't instructed to throw all too often, therefore you would like to think that with less attempts.. come less errors.

Stats can be implemented in any manner, calculating the amount of tea I make in attempting to doss off from work could make for amusement. Just living up to the stereotypical Brit and all that

[Skoltastic_Voyage]

He gets far less real world experience than most QB's (basically a tee for #28 to grab the ball from).

When he is forced to "go to work" how effective is he? He doesn't/can't establish a rhythm, when he is forced to throw he isn't as consistent as a result of this MOAR28 offense. A lot of QB's look terrible before getting into the flow of a game, I watch Giant's games and see Manning look an awful lot like Ponder sometimes (both good and bad). Typically though it's when the offense establishes a throwing rhythm that QB's look their best. I seen an instance or two where Ponder is there and moving chains effectively. Having a part time QB seems odd when I think about it. Probably should have AD take snaps directly and hand off to Webb if his side is too congested.

I'm almost half serious about that lol!

[mansquatch]

My takeaway from stats like that are that Ponder ranked that high in spite of a 6-7 game skid that was horrifyingly bad. To me one of the key questions is the one of consistency. Will we see far less “Mr. Hyde” in 2013? The answer to that will determine how far Ponder progresses in 2013. I think the better overall WR corps will help increase his yardage numbers.

I’m sure there are ton of people who will tell me I’m drinking kool-aid for this, but to be honest I am not that freaked out about the passing game going into 2013. Injuries last year were a big part of the performance of our WR, so if the current group stays healthy, I think we’ll see improvement. If not, then it really doesn’t matter. You can’t coach away a bad back, ankle, foot, or whatever so I’m not going to fret about it.

What really has me worried is the Defense. Right now we have a huge hole at MLB which is most likely going to be filled by a Rookie. The positive here is that JB was really, really bad so assuming they hit on the pick, this will at worse be a push. Still, there is risk here, what if there is run at LB on Day 1? In addition to this, I think our Secondary as it is currently built is highly vulnerable to injury risk. The “next man up” situation at CB is downright scary. I do think we’ll see them sign one of the veteran CB sitting out there in FA, but right now the situation is downright scary.

[Purple bruise]

This young QB will be the successful leader of the Vikes for a long time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoFrhWjWiBo

[Raptorman]

People will either love or the QBR. I am not worried about Ponders QBR from last year. It is what he does this year that matters. The one thing you have to keep in mind is that the QBR is a result of someone watching the QB and making a decision on how well he played to help his team to win. It takes into consideration, things the QB rating system does not. Sacks, runs, distance the ball was thrown. The old QB rating has it's own problems. It does not take into account sacks, YAC, drops by the WR's.

As the saying goes, tell me what you want to prove and I can come up with the stats to back it up.

[Just Me]

People will either love or the QBR. I am not worried about Ponders QBR from last year. It is what he does this year that matters. The one thing you have to keep in mind is that the QBR is a result of someone watching the QB and making a decision on how well he played to help his team to win. It takes into consideration, things the QB rating system does not. Sacks, runs, distance the ball was thrown. The old QB rating has it's own problems. It does not take into account sacks, YAC, drops by the WR's.

As the saying goes, tell me what you want to prove and I can come up with the stats to back it up.

Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination - Vin Scully

I like the Passer Rating (old QB Rating) for a "general idea" of how the quaterback is performing. As you pointed out, id doesn't take into account many factors that would be indicative of a better (and/or worse) performance, but it is an objective measure of the defined data. Subjective evaluation has the advantage of being perhaps more "comprehensive" in the factors it considers, but it's primary disadvantage is --well-- that it's subjective.

Passer Rating (at least for comparing Ponder with other QBs) would seem to be a good "rough gauge" on his performance. Yes, much of the YAC helps that rating, but to be fair: I think he's doing exactly what he's been coached to do (short passes).

Even the "3rd/4th down conversion" stat (where he's middle of the road) might be skewed slightly in his favor. To wit - play action pass on third down is actually effective for the Vikings