Vikings WRs and 2016 draft

[Bigwehrm]

Vikings 1st round pick 2016 and it is a USC player...
Minnesota Vikings: Su'a Cravens, S, USC

Harrison Smith might be the best safety in the NFL. However, the Vikings have nothing else at the position, and the last time I checked, most teams start two players there. Minnesota could be searching for help next to Smith come April. It's also worth noting that Smith will be a free agent in March 2017, so some insurance isn't a bad idea.
Read more at http://walterfootball.com/draft2016_1.p ... luVLQQp.99

http://walterfootball.com/draft2016_1.php

They have us picking 27th.

SmIth will never make it to free agency!!!!

[Mothman]

For some perspective, Elway only threw for three TDs or more once in his first 19 games. In fact, he had just combined 13 TDs through his first 19 games.

Rivers threw 3 or more TDs in one of his first 18 starts and three total in his first 21.

Maybe using 3 touchdowns in a game isn't a great assessment of a guy, particularly in one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league behind the worst pass-blocking offensive line in the league. The Vikings are also tied for fewest pass attempts/game.

But we're still talking about 326 passing attempts. The Vikes have a run-heavy offense but they pass about 50% of the time.

I agree that using 3 TDs a game isn't a great measuring stick but by just about any measurement of production, the Vikes passing game comes up short.

Wallace would be doing fine in many other offenses? Because he did so well in the last one he was in.

... and yet his worst yardage production with Miami was significantly better than his production in Minnesota. Wallace's lowest TD total in Miami was 5. He has one with the Vikings. His lowest catch total was 67. He has 28 this year. His lowest yardage total was 862 and he has just 318 with the Vikings.

A deep threat receiver playing on a run-first team with no pass protection. I wonder why he's not putting up big numbers...

It's not because he doesn't get open because he gets open and it's not because TB never has time to throw to him because those opportunities have been there too. Wallace isn't just a deep threat receiver anyway. He's played a role in his own low production, no doubt, but there are there are other issues at play, including Bridgewater's performance.

[mondry]

Let's get real this is what our draft should look like

CB, LB, DE, DT. Can never have enough of those guys!

[Cliff]

I wonder if having opposing teams begin to game plan a bit for Diggs has helped AD.

I think it does. That's one of the reasons balance is important on offense. The running game being dangerous helps free up the passing game. The passing game being dangerous helps free up rushing lanes. I think Digg's importance goes far beyond his numbers. Especially since he's one of the only bright spots in the passing game. If Rudolph can keep getting open and stop dropping TDs (yeah, yeah, it's not like that's happened a million times) then it should help Peterson even more.

[PurpleKoolaid]

OL
Safety
OL
OL
WR-a big, good hand, possession WR build like DR of the Broncos.

I really want us to draft a few tackle. Fill in other needs, like a punter. And a kicker. Walsh has given me an ulcer.

[PurpleKoolaid]

Let's get real this is what our draft should look like

CB, LB, DE, DT. Can never have enough of those guys!

Wow, you and I couldnt disagree more lol.

[dead_poet]

But we're still talking about 326 passing attempts. The Vikes have a run-heavy offense but they pass about 50% of the time.

That's fine, but they also have the fewest passes attempted per game. Not to mention I believe they are one of the highest rushing teams in the red zone (if not the highest). Both of these contribute to Teddy having a comparatively significant disadvantage when it comes to touchdown passes (it also doesn't help when Kyle drops one in his hands! But I'm not still bitter...) There was also some stupid stat last season about the number of times a receiver was tackled on a Teddy pass inside the opponent's 5 yard line but I can't find that right now.

I agree that using 3 TDs a game isn't a great measuring stick but by just about any measurement of production, the Vikes passing game comes up short.[/quote

Indeed it does. It needs to improve without question. Unfortunately they are who they are this season. I don't expect a sudden increase in passing production. With some hopefully positive offseason moves I do expect that to change for the better in 2016.

Sure, Teddy needs to hit him when he gets open. Wallace also needs to not drop the passes that actually make their way to him. And the stars seemingly do need to align to where Wallace is open while Teddy simultaneously has the time to throw. I wonder how many times that actually occurs per game...

https://vine.co/v/iWb6VlW2EUW/embed

[Mothman]

That's fine, but they also have the fewest passes attempted per game. Not to mention I believe they are one of the highest rushing teams in the red zone (if not the highest). Both of these contribute to Teddy having a comparatively significant disadvantage when it comes to touchdown passes (it also doesn't help when Kyle drops one in his hands! But I'm not still bitter...) There was also some stupid stat last season about the number of times a receiver was tackled on a Teddy pass inside the opponent's 5 yard line but I can't find that right now.
Sure, Teddy needs to hit him when he gets open. Wallace also needs to not drop the passes that actually make their way to him. And the stars seemingly do need to align to where Wallace is open while Teddy simultaneously has the time to throw. I wonder how many times that actually occurs per game...

More often than you might think.

The stars don't need to align. The players just need to do their jobs. Bridgewater needs to recognize those situations and get the ball out on time and on target. Wallace needs to catch it.

[mansquatch]

My view on the WR corps basically comes down to this question: Do we think they are bad because they have bad statistics or do we think they are bad because they are not competitive on the field and cannot make plays?

Furthermore, one has to ask, if the production is low is it because of the WR? Or maybe it is poor pass protection, poor QB play, or reduced opportunities due to a run heavy offense featuring #28? My guess is that it is a mix of all of these issues.

This gets me to my point: Incrementally where do the Vikings have the best opportunity to improve?

If we add a day 1 WR, chances are he will take 24-32 games to really contribute. As we've seen over much of the past 10 years WR draft picks take a lot of time to develop into the NFL game. So incrementally the improvement from such a pick in the near term will most likely be marginal.

Compare this to adding Offensive Line talent. Right now we are starting three late round players in our interior OL. Sullivan is probably still a Good (not Great) NFL Center. The guards are mostly unproven. Fusco has some experience, even had some flashes, but has been injured and this year has been mostly average. So Adding a Guard would add a great deal of talent athletically in area that really could use it. Also, a polished college player (read high round pick) could likely start day 1 and contribute, probably positively.

Likewise, if we are able to acquire an elite Safety Talent he might start immediately. This one is risky though. Most college safeties have huge hurdles to overcome transitioning to the NFL game. Drafting them is a real challenge. Less we forget the many Vikings attempts to shore up this spot before they finally found #22. (Tyrell Johnson anyone?) Incrementally this might have largest potential impact given the greatness around him, but it might also be the riskiest given the propensity to be a draft day bust.

Adding DL talent might be a safe bet if not as flashy as above. B-Rob is getting old and edge rushers are always valuable.


Finally, we should consider that right now the depth of the draft talent pool is unknown. We will be likely drafting in the mid to high 20s, so if there is a run on a position we need, we may have to go BPA. This can dramatically change what makes sense in the draft. If it is very deep in OL it might make sense to go a different direction if there is a run at the position. Also, it is well documented that NFL O line play has really been poor this year, so there is potential that many teams will be looking for help in this department which could further dilute the available talent when we pick.

Lots of variables to chew on...

I still think given the current roster we have 5 viable WR, plus a TE who has the skill and size to play the Possession WR type role. Adding more talent here seems less likely to be incrementally beneficial to the team vs. adding at OL or S. Just my $0.02.

[autobon7]

What squatch just said......I'd be pi**ed if we took a wr in the 1st 3 rounds. I just don't see it happening.

[Purple bruise]

OL
Safety
OL
OL
WR-a big, good hand, possession WR build like DR of the Broncos.

I really want us to draft a few tackle. Fill in other needs, like a punter. And a kicker. Walsh has given me an ulcer.

Who is DR that plays for the Broncos

[Mothman]

My view on the WR corps basically comes down to this question: Do we think they are bad because they have bad statistics or do we think they are bad because they are not competitive on the field and cannot make plays?

Furthermore, one has to ask, if the production is low is it because of the WR? Or maybe it is poor pass protection, poor QB play, or reduced opportunities due to a run heavy offense featuring #28? My guess is that it is a mix of all of these issues.

This gets me to my point: Incrementally where do the Vikings have the best opportunity to improve?

If we add a day 1 WR, chances are he will take 24-32 games to really contribute. As we've seen over much of the past 10 years WR draft picks take a lot of time to develop into the NFL game. So incrementally the improvement from such a pick in the near term will most likely be marginal

That seems wholly dependent on the player and the situation. For example, in the past 5 seasons alone, we've seen first round WR picks like Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, A. J. Green and Julio Jones all make substantial contributions to their teams in much less than 24-32 games. In many cases, they made substantial contributions in their rookie seasons. Of course, there are plenty of examples to the contrary too and as we always say, the draft offers no guarantees but it's clear that with good scouting and good luck (ie: no injuries) day one WRs can have an early or even immediate impact.

Compare this to adding Offensive Line talent. Right now we are starting three late round players in our interior OL. Sullivan is probably still a Good (not Great) NFL Center. The guards are mostly unproven. Fusco has some experience, even had some flashes, but has been injured and this year has been mostly average. So Adding a Guard would add a great deal of talent athletically in area that really could use it. Also, a polished college player (read high round pick) could likely start day 1 and contribute, probably positively.

No argument here. I wanted them to select that kind of player in the first two days of the 2015 draft.

Finally, we should consider that right now the depth of the draft talent pool is unknown. We will be likely drafting in the mid to high 20s, so if there is a run on a position we need, we may have to go BPA. This can dramatically change what makes sense in the draft. If it is very deep in OL it might make sense to go a different direction if there is a run at the position. Also, it is well documented that NFL O line play has really been poor this year, so there is potential that many teams will be looking for help in this department which could further dilute the available talent when we pick.

Lots of variables to chew on...

Indeed and at quite a few positions.

I still think given the current roster we have 5 viable WR, plus a TE who has the skill and size to play the Possession WR type role. Adding more talent here seems less likely to be incrementally beneficial to the team vs. adding at OL or S. Just my $0.02.

Just to be clear, are Diggs, Johnson, Wright, Thielen and Patterson the 5 viable WRs you're referring to above?

[mondry]

The thing is we really need a WR sadly. Wallace is gone, or should be, he isn't worth that massive contract, not even close, and especially not in our offense. Why pay a premium when we run on most of our plays?

Charles Johnson has been a total flash in the pan and Patterson's a bust. That leaves Diggs, Wright, Rudolph, Pruitt, and Ellison as viable options, 3 of which are TE's. Thielan doesn't do it for me, YMMV.

/scary

That seems wholly dependent on the player and the situation. For example, in the past 5 seasons alone, we've seen first round WR picks like Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, A. J. Green and Julio Jones all make substantial contributions to their teams in much less than 24-32 games. In many cases, they made substantial contributions in their rookie seasons. Of course, there are plenty of examples to the contrary too and as we always say, the draft offers no guarantees but it's clear that with good scouting and good luck (ie: no injuries) day one WRs can have an early or even immediate impact.

Yeah, the overwhelming new trend now is that the higher draft pick WR's are paying off immediately. Even our 5th round guy Steffon Diggs (you may have heard of him) is now our best WR instantly lol. For whatever the reason, these guys are just coming out more and more polished (which sucks since we took such a massive project like Patterson) and ready to dominate from the get go.

[mansquatch]

Diggs is going through his readjustment phase now. He burned teams for 4 weeks and now they are paying more attention to him. Low and behold AP kicked it into another gear and Kyle Rudolph started having big games. Perhaps this is related somehow?

I view our WR roster as:

Wallace, CP84, CJ, Diggs, Wright, Thielen.

Also noteworthy are Rudolph and Ellison.

The TEs are not going anywhere. So who gets cut, do you toss Wallace's contract? Maybe, but my guess is that happens after 2016. Diggs, CJ, and Wright are all locked up, not going anywhere. So that is 4 slots. Thielen is the obvious choice, he is a late round role player, solid ST contributor, high effort guy. Not the best athlete on the team, but he is cheap.

So that leaves CP84. IMO, for 2016 he isn't much different than a fresh pick, you hope he contributes or he sits, he is also an elite return talent. The downside risk is he probably bolts after 2016 to find somewhere where he can start. As far as what he is right now, that has been:

The real point here is that we have pretty good depth at this position even if there is no dominant true #1. If you want to see a bad group, go 6 hours to east and look at what Rogers gets to throw to. I think he'd kill for our group of under achievers right now.

To me the real question on this is a kind of combo platter between incremental value to the team's roster/ ability to compete as well as need today / need tomorrow.

A few variables:
1.) In next 2-3 off seasons Vikings will be faced with paying Barr, AP, Floyd, Rhodes, and Teddy. That is A LOT of cap space. (Why I think Mike Wallace is gone after 2016 season)

2.) OL is a disaster right now, no depth behind starters, interior is very low on athletic talent

3.) We may need a QB in 2 seasons

4.) B-Rob is getting old. Will need depth to replace him.

So I look at the above and I ask myself: Where does the team get the most help? Can I add an impact player in the late 20s or 2nd round at WR or can I get a better bump in performance by beefing up the OL? Heck, if we increase our ability to pass protect does that make our existing crop of WR statistically superior to what we have now?

I'm just not sold on WR right now. How do we need talent there more than we need it at OL? I'm not seeing it.

[autobon7]

Diggs is going through his readjustment phase now. He burned teams for 4 weeks and now they are paying more attention to him. Low and behold AP kicked it into another gear and Kyle Rudolph started having big games. Perhaps this is related somehow?

I view our WR roster as:

Wallace, CP84, CJ, Diggs, Wright, Thielen.

Also noteworthy are Rudolph and Ellison.

The TEs are not going anywhere. So who gets cut, do you toss Wallace's contract? Maybe, but my guess is that happens after 2016. Diggs, CJ, and Wright are all locked up, not going anywhere. So that is 4 slots. Thielen is the obvious choice, he is a late round role player, solid ST contributor, high effort guy. Not the best athlete on the team, but he is cheap.

So that leaves CP84. IMO, for 2016 he isn't much different than a fresh pick, you hope he contributes or he sits, he is also an elite return talent. The downside risk is he probably bolts after 2016 to find somewhere where he can start. As far as what he is right now, that has been:

The real point here is that we have pretty good depth at this position even if there is no dominant true #1. If you want to see a bad group, go 6 hours to east and look at what Rogers gets to throw to. I think he'd kill for our group of under achievers right now.

To me the real question on this is a kind of combo platter between incremental value to the team's roster/ ability to compete as well as need today / need tomorrow.

A few variables:
1.) In next 2-3 off seasons Vikings will be faced with paying Barr, AP, Floyd, Rhodes, and Teddy. That is A LOT of cap space. (Why I think Mike Wallace is gone after 2016 season)

2.) OL is a disaster right now, no depth behind starters, interior is very low on athletic talent

3.) We may need a QB in 2 seasons

4.) B-Rob is getting old. Will need depth to replace him.

So I look at the above and I ask myself: Where does the team get the most help? Can I add an impact player in the late 20s or 2nd round at WR or can I get a better bump in performance by beefing up the OL? Heck, if we increase our ability to pass protect does that make our existing crop of WR statistically superior to what we have now?

I'm just not sold on WR right now. How do we need talent there more than we need it at OL? I'm not seeing it.

Short answer.......we do NOT need WR more than we need OL help. Beef up the OL and hope that TB will take the next step in regards to maturing.