2015 Offseason - Free Agent/Draft Tracker

[Mothman]

Only 4.5 hours until the chaos officially begins!

Here's another rumor/report:

‏@MikeGarafolo
Chargers LB Andrew Gachkar generating interest from the Vikings, Panthers and Raiders. Visits to each this week possible.

[dead_poet]

This is obviously very, very premature, but it's amazing the contrast between this offseason and the next two, in terms of our own UFAs that we will have to work to retain. Barely any MAJOR UFAs this year (Tom Johnson probably most notable, pricey). Between the next two offseasons, the following players will have expiring contracts (among others):

Harrison Smith*
Matt Kalil*
Josh Robinson
Jarius Wright
Robert Blanton
Rhett Ellison
Blair Walsh
Andrew Sendejo
Audie Cole
Chase Ford
Phil Loadholt
John Sullivan
Captain Munnerlyn
Shariff Floyd*
Xavier Rhodes*
Cordarelle Patterson*
Gerald Hodges
Charles Johnson

* - Pending 5th year option

Lot of money needed to be spent. Quite a few "core" guys among those to go along with a number of solid role players, I do really appreciate the way we've drafted lately, that's a lot of quality talent, to be honest.

Of course, the guys we (inevitably) lose to other teams in those years will hopefully net us compensatory picks in the following year's draft.

Build through the draft, sign bargain rack unrestricted free agents/players who've been released (the ones who don't count against compensatory pick formula), re-sign the guys we drafted and developed (most of them), get compensatory picks when the guys we can't re-sign get paid elsewhere (more firepower to build through draft), rinse and repeat.

^ Boom

Performance will obviously play a big part, as will injuries. But at this point I don't see too many guys that will command top dollar. By my count there could be three or four, but like you said it's early to judge some and way too early to judge others . Let's take a look:

Harrison Smith* -- Probably the best on the list and could get $8-9 million/year. He's one of my three.
Matt Kalil* -- Total question mark but pending a huge turnaround (and if the Vikings even want to keep him), perhaps middle-of-the-pack LT cash, which is around $5-6 million/year (might be a bit steep). Maybe a good comparison would be Jermon Bushrod (five-year, $36 million contract), but that's probably a bit steep and assuming he improves.
Josh Robinson -- To date hasn't shown he's a top corner. Probably below average at this point. Shouldn't be too expensive to retain
Jarius Wright -- Same as Robinson. I really like Wright but he doesn't get on the field enough and won't be more than a depth guy that probably won't get a big payday (though I can see him wanting to test the FA waters to get more playing time somewhere)
Robert Blanton -- A very average DB so far. Won't take much to retain
Rhett Ellison -- I love me some Rhett, but primarily blocking TEs don't get much love. His next contract will be easily manageable
Blair Walsh -- Kicking outdoors isn't going to help his stats, and therefore his contract. Probably get top-7 kicker cash ($3 million/year), which isn't much compared to other positions and easily manageable
Andrew Sendejo -- Special teams guy and depth safety. Won't take much to resign.
Audie Cole -- I'm a Cole fan, but unless he's a starter and really blows people away with his play he'll be back on a manageable contract
Chase Ford -- Backup TEs don't get paid. I can't imagine he'd get more than Niles Paul just did (3-year, $6 million)
Phil Loadholt -- Phil might be an interesting case, but he's not a free agent until 2017. If he can stay healthy, he'll probably get a healthy contract.
John Sullivan -- Not a free agent until 2017, he'll be 32. His healthy will be closely monitored after a series of concussions and the microfracture surgery. I could see another three-year contract for him but it may not be as lucrative as the one he signed in 2011 (6-year, $25.6 million)
Captain Munnerlyn -- He may be cut if he doesn't improve his play. It's too early at this point to speculate on him after just a season of mediocre performance. If this season was any indication, he won't be costly to re-sign in 2017.
Shariff Floyd* -- Another one of my three that could be costly to re-sign. If he keeps ascending, he could get Geno Atkins money (six-year, $56.42 million) and I'm sure the Vikings wouldn't want him to get away.
Xavier Rhodes* -- The final of my three. There's potential there for top-10 CB cash, perhaps similar to what Joe Haden signed (six-year, $74.678 million). The Vikings will lock him up.
Cordarelle Patterson* -- Total wild card. He could get between Victor Cruz cash (six-year, $45.879 million) or Devin Hester cash (three-year, $9 million) depending on which way his career arc takes him. No clue at this point but right now top-20 WR money doesn't look like something he's capable of, but probably more than Hester's latest. We'll have a more accurate idea depending on how 2015 shakes out
Gerald Hodges -- Another guy that's difficult to project right now. Probably average OLB cash, which is between $2-3 million/year.
Charles Johnson -- He could be in for a nice payday if he keeps ascending but probably not crazy cash unless he does pull a Victor Cruz act with Teddy at the helm. But impossible to project without a larger sample size.

Obviously I don't expect all these guys to be back, but I don't think with proper cap management they couldn't retain the guys they want to, especially with the salary cap continuing to go up and up and up.

[PacificNorseWest]

Have the Vikings expressed interest in Ron Parker or just Rahim Moore?

I surely hope they get one of those two in order to avoid having to sign Taylor Mays. Seems like the Vikes are set on getting their starting safety through free agency, so hopefully this works out. Mays could have been great and still shows flashes, but he's been in the league long enough now to be who he is; inconsistent and when he screws up, he really screws up.

[Mothman]

Regarding the list of players Frosted posted:

As Dead–Poet said, some of them simply won't get re-signed. I'm guessing 1/3 or more won't stay with the Vikes after their contracts expire. Of those who will get re-signed, I wouldn't be surprised if some of this year's cap space goes toward extending a few contracts. In fact, I expect that to happen to happen with Harrison Smith. They may lock up Walsh for a few more years too.

[Superfreak84]

We still have Harrison Smith for 2 more years before we need to re-sign him correct? Because of the 5th year option?

[dead_poet]

@christomasson The #Vikings have inquired about San Francisco cornerback Chris Culliver but they haven't made an offer. So it's still preliminary there.

Now that House is off the market I may be on board for the right price. Though there are some character concerns there. He'll probably price himself out of the Vikings' range.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Now that House is off the market I may be on board for the right price. Though there are some character concerns there. He'll probably price himself out of the Vikings' range.

I would definitely love Culliver. He would be a solid CB opposite of Rhodes. Anyone else notice how we haven't went after 1 WR in free agency so far?? It's starting to be obvious what direction we are going in the draft

[Pondering Her Percy]

If we can somehow land Boling, Culliver and Moore, I would fly to Minnesota just to give Spielman a giant hug

[frosted]

Regarding the list of players Frosted posted:

As Dead–Poet said, some of them simply won't get re-signed. I'm guessing 1/3 or more won't stay with the Vikes after their contracts expire. Of those who will get re-signed, I wouldn't be surprised if some of this year's cap space goes toward extending a few contracts. In fact, I expect that to happen to happen with Harrison Smith. They may lock up Walsh for a few more years too.

No doubt, and if we play our cards right (that is, by not blowing our load in UFA year after year), some of the the guys that we don't re-sign will net us compensatory picks, i.e more lottery tickets.

There's absolutely an element of the draft that is a crap shoot, so the prospect of more total picks means more chances to hit on someone who'll be under team control for a very reasonable amount of money for a good chunk of time.

Thus my obsession with the 'build through the draft' philosophy.


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[frosted]

If we can somehow land Boling, Culliver and Moore, I would fly to Minnesota just to give Spielman a giant hug

That would be a big chunk of cash - I don't know how I feel about Cully, I like his game, but the character issues are not imagined.

I watched a bit of Moore - I came away less impressed than others. I'd pass if the price was more than $4.5 million a year.

Still don't have a good feel for Boling - wouldn't mind it I suppose, as long as we don't over pay. The problem is, I am not sure what that number might be.


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[frosted]

Have the Vikings expressed interest in Ron Parker or just Rahim Moore?

I surely hope they get one of those two in order to avoid having to sign Taylor Mays. Seems like the Vikes are set on getting their starting safety through free agency, so hopefully this works out. Mays could have been great and still shows flashes, but he's been in the league long enough now to be who he is; inconsistent and when he screws up, he really screws up.

I doubt they're looking at Mays as much more than a sub package OLB and S. He has never been a reliable full time starter.


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[dead_poet]

Still don't have a good feel for Boling - wouldn't mind it I suppose, as long as we don't over pay. The problem is, I am not sure what that number might be.

James Carpenter will be signing with the Jets for a reported four-year, $19 million contract ($4.5 million/year). Orlando Franklin's deal with the Chargers is for five years, $36.5 million ($7.5 million/year) with $20 million guaranteed but he can play both guard and tackle. I would think Boling would fit in between those two, though closer to what Franklin got.

[Pseudo Everything]

Would much rather over-pay for Boling than take Schreff at #11. Not even close.

[dead_poet]

Would much rather over-pay for Boling than take Schreff at #11. Not even close.

Out of curiosity, why?

[The Breeze]

Can we even be sure Schreff will be there when we pick?
I don't know what overpaying would be in this case.....especially considering that it's very likely Peterson's contract will be more cap friendly one way or the other.

Is the guard spot more of a need than another quality DB? I say yes.
If they don't sign Boling and don't get Shreff it's possible that we wind up worse off than with Johnson at guard.
They need to get Berger signed too.